 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Yesterday I'd have said keep an eye on Friday, but at the moment all the models have the HP over the central med too high and the cold front gets pushed north. Looks quite warm this week. You'll have to hope that they've overdone the high pressure and the front manages to push through.
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brian
brian
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HARRYMAC2702, looks like your timing may be not bad at all 
Edit: as skanky points out, Friday has had a bit of a GFS downgrade (looks a little better on ECM ?) although it looks good for more snow events in the early part of the next week. Is it a week or a weekend you're going for ?
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| skanky wrote: |
| Yesterday I'd have said keep an eye on Friday, but at the moment all the models have the HP over the central med too high and the cold front gets pushed north. Looks quite warm this week. You'll have to hope that they've overdone the high pressure and the front manages to push through. |
I think the current UKMO FAX chart has an occluded front reaching the Alps on Friday (is that right?). What effect would that have on temperatures and precipitation?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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snow-forecast has snow showers Thurs, then more showers Fri, with snow Sat & Sun, F/L around 2800m Thurs, dropping to 2350 by Sunday. 10cm+ looks possible.
regards,
Greg
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brian, At last i may be on for some fresh when im actually skiing!! Going for a week but may do a daytrip over to val thorens if the snow lasts but judging from the above comments it looks set to get warmer this week. Have you seen kaprun and the kitzeinhorn ski areas- they had 50cm of fresh over the weekend... 
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I'm not an expert (merely an interested/incomplete dabbler), but the latest FAX for Friday (+120hr) has the fronts stalling on the edge of the HP, but it does develop a wave over the southern Alps (the cold front develops a warm front in it) which may develop into a small LP area. This is what's being progged to bring the showers. However waves are not that easy to pick up at this range as they're pretty small scale. ECMWF, GFS & UKMO are showing it to different degrees (UKMO is most bullish), so it's worth keeping an eye on it. GFS downgraded it for the 06z run, the other models may follow suit in their 12z runs, or GFS may flip back.
GFS is predicting the jet to be diffluent (diverging - causing instability) there which is possibly what's disrupting the front (but this is now stretching my knowledge and abilities here) - look at the 300hpa wind chart. The main worry with it is the fact that the temperatures look warm (the big problem with the cold front stalling), so freezing temps could be quite high.
The occluded front looks to be decaying so I don't think there'll be a huge amount of stuff associated with it (though if a few mountains can't get anything from it, nothing can). If it was still a well formed front, then an occluded front is one where the cold air has caught up with and undercut the warm front. They can bring a lot a of wet weather and it does mean that the worst of the warm air (such that it is in winter) is avoided - however depending on how occluded it is, it can bring warmer air in higher up the mountain than lower down (I can't recall an example though, so I don't know how often that happens in the Alps).
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 13-11-06 11:43; edited 1 time in total
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HARRYMAC2702, has Val Thorens confirmed they're going to open on the 18th? Unless there is a big dump of snow between now and then I can't imagine they're going to have anything open other than a few pistes they've used their snow cannons on.
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| Quote: |
| Have you seen kaprun and the kitzeinhorn ski areas- they had 50cm of fresh over the weekend... |
I'm sure someone can provide the statistics to prove me wrong, but if I was going at this time of year, I'd head East...on what (I perceive to be) the percentages.
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skanky, thanks. What do you think is the likelihood that the HP over the Med won't be as strong as currently predicted? Is it easy to get location wrong for HP systems?
Also, where do you see the ECMWF forecasts?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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rob@rar, on the website last night a statement was posted saying that snow conditions permitting they would open for the 18th. Cant comment any further as im only going on what they posted. Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, im seriously considering changing to austria as long as the other mebers of the party agree! Whats in store weather wise for austria during the same period. Cheers.
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| HARRYMAC2702 wrote: |
| Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall. |
I think that's a bit deceptive - I don't think they had much more than 5 or 10cm, and it's currently quite warm there (0º isotherm is above 3,500m).
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You know it makes sense.
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Metcheck shows snow for Friday at Serre Chevalier.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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HARRYMAC2702, AFAICS weatherwise not much difference to France for this week and just as warm. Their main advantage is that parts there have already had some snow. Don't know how well it'll last this week. There are people here who live there who should give a better idea on that front.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| HARRYMAC2702 wrote: |
| Although if you check this mornings cam shot they have had a decent fall. |
I think that's a bit deceptive - I don't think they had much more than 5 or 10cm, and it's currently quite warm there (0º isotherm is above 3,500m). |
And warm weather over the next couple of days. I would put the fresh at 7cm  , most of that will burn off pretty quickly as the ground is still quite warm (I measured +6C at 2000 m in the shade a couple of days ago).
I'm not sure why every resort started their snow canons last week when it was obviously going to get warm again - my local resort had a piste covered and that has now all but melted. Is there method in their madness or are they desperate, or insane? The only idea I had was that if they don't run the cannons when there is a cold snap they risk the pipes freezing all winter as there is no snow cover to insulate the ground?
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brian
brian
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davidof, maybe trying to cool down the ground a bit ?
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Thanks - do you use ECMWF to check the position of fronts, or only pressure systems?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It's possible to spot fronts with just the isobars, but it's more difficult. If there are "kinks" in the isobars around a LP in the same way that a stream or gully would appear on a contour map, that tends to indicate a a front. The first chart you see at that link has a front running down the West coast of Wales & Portugal just to the West of the high winds (green & yellow). They can be quite subtle though. I do also compare the systems to those of other models to gauge the level of agreement, then pick the details off the more forthcoming charts (eg GFS & now the ones at that last link).
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| skanky wrote: |
| If there are "kinks" in the isobars around a LP in the same way that a stream or gully would appear on a contour map, that tends to indicate a a front. |
Thanks, I didn't know that. One more thing to try and remember when looking at the charts!
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rob@rar, you can often see the same thing on the FAX charts, though again it's not always obvious.
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how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this?
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HARRYMAC2702, Metcheck shows them falling towards the weekend though.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| HARRYMAC2702 wrote: |
| how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this? |
Down in France at least things are very influenced by whether the air is coming from the south or north. If the wind blows from the south you can have 20 degrees in January, on the other hand if the wind blows from the North you can have snow in the summer. We seem to have spent most of the autumn with warm air currents coming up from the south - Spain, Africa but without much rain.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| HARRYMAC2702 wrote: |
| how come the temps are set to rise alot higher this week. Its the middle of november so surley it should be alot colder than this? |
The air that is approaching the Alps is coming from the south west, up over the Atlantic. At those lower latitudes the air and the sea below it is relatively warm. If the air was coming down from northerly latitudes it would be much colder.
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brian
brian
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GFS 12z rolling now and looking better, mega-dumpage through Saturday for France especially Oisans and southwards. FL around 2250, snowline 2000m-ish ?
So a good deal of uncertainty about, but it's got to be better than a boring big high ! 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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snow-forecast now has 8cm, Friday, 23cm on Sat, fingers crossed for you Harrymac702!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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brian
brian
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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but there will at least be some snowfall? also looking at val thorens- same here do you think?
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but even if they got 50cm+ in the next week I don't think they would open any of the runs, until they got more of a base down, and compacted.
Checking out the webcames, Tovieres is bare, and that's (if I remember correctly) a key run to get back from the bowls in the middle of Val D'Isere and Tignes.
Val D'Isere isn't due to open until the 25th, so I'd say that they will keep everything closed until that day, and open up then with more terrain, assuming they get snow and/or cold enough temps to make snow.
Regards,
Greg
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FAQ
Bet that changes though! 
Do you know what the temps/freezing level are like? It needs to keep snowing and stay on the ground for 2 Dec 
