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Early Winter Surprise with possibly a lot of snow

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The weather maps are very favorable for a serious dump of snow from Thursday. We still have a while to go, but the maps looks very nice to kick off the 2024/2025 season.

A lot of rain will fall to start with-

After months of record warmth and heat, everything will be different this week. That starts today with a cold front that triggers numerous (heavy) showers on both the north and south side of the Alps. There are frequent thunderstorms and large amounts of rain, most of it in Carinthia and parts of northern Italy where locally more than 50 mm of rain falls. The snowfall is not yet an issue, except on the glaciers. From about 3500 meters, a few tens of centimeters of snow can fall.

Nothing really special at the beginning of September, but what happens in the second half of the week is of a different order.!!!!!

Possible prolonged snowfall

There is a low-pressure area near Iceland splitting off on Wednesday and moving southwards. In its wake will be much colder air that will reach the Mediterranean on Thursday and will cause a significant activation of the precipitation. Thursday..

There will be a well-developed low pressure area above northern Italy that will cause persistent snowfall in large parts of the Alps. It seems to be a Gegenstromlage (special type of Sudstau) : soft, moist air from the south slides over the cold air that has flowed in, causing precipitation on both sides of the Alps. Because it will be much colder than now, this can result in snow from about 1500 meters.

Very Happy Very Happy
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An autumn dump is always welcome! snowHead snowHead

Not often we hear something so positive from you, @stanton!! wink
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A bit more detail here, already mentioned on the Weather Outlook thread:

https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2024/09/08/first-snowfall-on-the-way-with-excessive-precipitation-amounts
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Oh I do hope so (but isn't it mostly likely going to melt before December?)
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I guess some might stick around on glaciers and maybe some on 3k+ areas.
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OK Folks this is what is forming

https://x.com/Kachelmannwettr/status/1833790387858579722


For Austria it means between 20-100cms of Snow.


https://x.com/Alpinwetter/status/1833795480658092426

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________-


What is a südstau?

Südstau is a form of stau in which moist air is sucked in from the Mediterranean Sea and collides with the southern Alps. The causative agent is often the well-known Genoa depression.

This can produce particularly large amounts of snow in a short period of time. Characteristic of a südstau is that the snow falls mainly in the southern Alps. In the northern Alps, the air dries out and the clouds dissolve. This is called a hair dryer (Föhn).

Some südstau situations have become legendry December 2008 and the entire 2013-2014 ,Meters of fresh snow fell in Italy and the south of Austria and Switzerland.

Warm sea acts as a trigger

The sometimes gigantic amounts of snow are caused by the relatively warm Mediterranean Sea that is located a short distance from the Alps. The air that passes over this can contain more water vapor than cold air, which means that precipitation is often heavier.

Higher snow line

A risk at südstau is always the snow line. Because the air is naturally softer than with a nordstau, there is a chance that it will rain in the lower valleys. Watch the zero degree snowline.

Gegenstromlage

Special formations of a südstau are the ""retour d'est" and the ""Gegenstromlage"".

During a Gegenstromlage, the südstau passes over the main alpine ridge, so to speak, so that it also snows on the north side of the Alps.

This occurs when the valleys in the north are filled with cold air. Because cold air is heavier than the slightly warmer air from the south, the air cannot descend (there is no Föhn). As a result, it also snows on the north side of the Alps during a Gegenstromlage.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Severe weather situation with extreme rain and massive risk of flooding (Germany ,Austria)!


http://youtube.com/v/3beh48hPePw?
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@stanton, not sure that explanation stacks up this time. There is no Fõhn in sight for the Munich area but very wet & cold weather. The video shows what is called a Vb Low, this sits over central Europe east of the alps, draws in warm humid air from the (very warm) Mediterranean over the Balkans which in turn drives down cold wet air over the eastern alps potentially causing huge levels of precipitation. In some ways it is not dissimilar to a short lived Nordstau with cold air coming from the north over the eastern alps but that is usually a result of a slow moving weather system over the Baltic. Technically this is different but same result cold air and lots of rain / snow.
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This was an English explanation I found of the Vb Tief (Vb Low):

https://meteonews.fr/en/News/N14152/What-is-a-Vb-low%3F

Tracks further E & NE than the classic Genoa Low, Sudstau or Retour d'Est phenomena and licks around the Eastern end of the Alps.

Looks to cause flooding events at lower altitudes in NE Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Czechia, W Slovakia & Poland, as well as a heavy dump over a vast area of the E Alps (both sides of the Alpine divide) at altitude.
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snowball wrote:
Oh I do hope so (but isn't it mostly likely going to melt before December?)


Not necessarily the stuff on the glaciers, which is needed for us as even Hintertux closed this summer!
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There was fresh snow dusting the mountain tops in CH this morning
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swskier wrote:
snowball wrote:
Oh I do hope so (but isn't it mostly likely going to melt before December?)


Not necessarily the stuff on the glaciers, which is needed for us as even Hintertux closed this summer!



Some glaciers in the E Alps are getting forecasts of of over 3m over next 6 days.

https://wepowder.com/en

Dachstein Gletscher 343cm
Kitzsteinhorn 329cm

A bit less for Hintertux at 163cm

That should freshen things up!! snowHead Shocked
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
A high mountain guide chum said that there's been ridiculous amounts of snow at altitude all summer.
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I saw the Stelvio pass camera this morning https://pirovano.it/en/webcam-stelvio/ and it was snow snow snow.
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http://youtube.com/v/oJlUaXwdYYg?


http://youtube.com/v/vyq58aWulIg?
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Snowing in the Val Gardena valley and a little forecast for Verbier this eve.
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Snowing in the village in Colfosco (1650m) in the Italian Dolomites:

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Nebelhorn/Oberstdorf
Fairly dramatic weather scheduled over the weekend in Austria/Poland/Czech Republic. Huge amounts of water...
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The main weather stream seems to be a bit further east than in some forecasts so not as much snow in the mountains as some suggestions. Still very wet in Bavaria though not as much as in, say, Vienna or Prague. Normal service back by mid next week 20 degrees and sunshine just in time for Oktoberfest Smile
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@munich_irish, Rosenheim Oktoberfest is a bit of a wash out today!

Our company are bussing a load of people up there, but colleagues of mine that booked aren't bothering at all.
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munich_irish wrote:
The main weather stream seems to be a bit further east than in some forecasts so not as much snow in the mountains as some suggestions. Still very wet in Bavaria though not as much as in, say, Vienna or Prague. Normal service back by mid next week 20 degrees and sunshine just in time for Oktoberfest Smile


20c in the UK as well - then back to rain!
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Looks like the biggest September snowstorm in the Eastern Alps (Austria) this century.

Hintertux will be happy. Its glacier was unskiable just a few days ago.

Colorado, Pyrenees, and Scotland also got a sprinkle.

Ruka and Levi, Finland, look set to open in a week or two.
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What's going on? Both Stanton and Whitegold making positive comments on the same thread, on the same day?

Not sure if my head can take it Shocked Shocked

Early snow is always welcome. Just hope it stays around to form a base layer.
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Except at the highest altitudes it won't stay around, but it's always exciting to see it on the webcams.
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@brianatab,
“Just hope it stays around to form a base layer.”

>3km it’s not needed, below it won’t.
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Lots of snow in obertauern
https://x.com/Alpenweerman/status/1834882701175738544
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I find this kind of thing slightly worrying in some ways, the seasons now seem to be all over the place. The webcams in the Gastein valley today look exactly the same as they did in the 3rd week of January! Tons of snow at altitude and /snow/sleet/rain in the valley. With similar (if not lower) temperatures as well.

I bet it’s not very welcome with the locals. It will wreak havoc on the last few weeks of the summer type sports such as mountain biking and hiking so probably lose a fair bit of revenue for them. It can’t be great for the guys getting everything ready for the up and coming winter season either. Imagine trying to do last minute maintenance and rigging of the lifts in that! Plus imagine the nightmare it must cause in the resorts where they cover glaciers with insulation.

Still, I’m sure in a weeks time the sun will be out and most of it will be gone. I just hope it comes back in time for January!!
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@japes1275, I think you’ll find it’s not that unusual an occurrence …
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It has been slightly concerning, in that I am currently south of the border. ÖBB sent me a warning 2 days ago that there may be disruptions this weekend, and that all ticket validity has been opened till Wednesday! Not that it helps me, as I don't think TrenItalia will take any notice, but as I'm currently on the service back to Innsbruck and suffering only a 30min delay, I don't think I'm likely to run into any major issues at this point. No snow in South Tyrol so far. Things may be different further east.

New winter tyres went on the car a couple of weeks ago, so we're all set!

The bikepark is closed though. They have a few “issues” today Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
These Webcams give a pretty good instant review over Austria..

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/

Salzburg today..

https://x.com/DudekPL4/status/1834861960766038470


Highwater and Flood situation

Germany

https://www.hochwasserzentralen.de/


Czechia

https://hydro.chmi.cz/hpps/?id=act&key=map&sx=1722724.5&sy=6415123.5&sz=0


Vienna will hopefully survive flooding due to the DonauKanal and the dams & weirs that are over designed ... However downstream in a few days Bratislava , Budapest, Belgrade may have problems

Live Update 16:30 CET


http://youtube.com/v/3DgvHS6gOqU
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Four die in Romanian floods as rain lashes Europe
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First suspected Avalanche death in Tirol (Karwendel) today, a group of about 30 German hikers stayed overnight in a mountain hut at 1500m. This morning they decided to descend because of the weather when one of them aged between 70 and 72 (press report) disappeared due to an Avalanche. While trying to rescue him one of the rescue team was injured in a secondary Avalanche. They were having difficulties with helicopters due to the weather conditions and further danger of secondary Avalanches but did manage to locate a signal with a helicopter equipped with a RECCO scanner. They were unable to reach the site of the signal and the rescue was called off at 3pm. The rest of the group was successfully rescued.
https://www.krone.at/3525497


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sat 14-09-24 18:57; edited 1 time in total
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Wow, that's sobering to hear Sad
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japes1275 wrote:
I find this kind of thing slightly worrying in some ways, the seasons now seem to be all over the place. The webcams in the Gastein valley today look exactly the same as they did in the 3rd week of January! Tons of snow at altitude and /snow/sleet/rain in the valley. With similar (if not lower) temperatures as well.

I bet it’s not very welcome with the locals. It will wreak havoc on the last few weeks of the summer type sports such as mountain biking and hiking so probably lose a fair bit of revenue for them. It can’t be great for the guys getting everything ready for the up and coming winter season either. Imagine trying to do last minute maintenance and rigging of the lifts in that! Plus imagine the nightmare it must cause in the resorts where they cover glaciers with insulation.

Still, I’m sure in a weeks time the sun will be out and most of it will be gone. I just hope it comes back in time for January!!


It happens pretty regularly - September 22 was similar:
http://youtube.com/v/w-OeOz-Wl6U

In the east it's a bit more extreme than usual, but snow falls more Septembers than not. Maybe not usually within days of having been 30°C though! And yeah, PITA for the bike parks etc.
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September snowfall in Western Europe above 2500-3000m happens every year.

The difference this year is the high amount and low altitude.

Huge dump, down to 1000-2000m.

This is Austria at 1400-1700m on Saturday.



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@japes1275, I'm going to have to take that back. This is unusual.
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Approx. 1600m altitude at Steinplatte (Austria/Germany border area) Shocked

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Quote:
First suspected Avalanche death in Tirol (Karwendel) today, a group of about 30 German hikers stayed overnight in a mountain hut at 1500m
Awful news that Sad Absolutely incredible weather for the time of year - practically unbelievable in fact.

Mrs MA have been vindicated in our decision to abort a four day Austria trip, including two nights in refuges at 2,200m in the Stubai Alps. Tonight would have been our first refuge night, but far better safe than sorry.

Off to our Tignes apartment on Tuesday instead, for 2 days hiking there. France has had only a dusting of snow at the highest altitudes.
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https://avalanche.report/blog/at-07-en/10309
Initial info about current conditions and the avalanche in the Karwendel. This was just a couple of valleys behind Innsbruck, about halfway towards Achensee as the crow flies.
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Ski tourer died in Obertauern....touring against mountain rescue advice
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More info here https://www.salzburg24.at/news/salzburg/vermisster-skitourengeher-am-seekareck-in-obertauern-tot-geborgen-165108124
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