Climate change in the Alpine Areas of Europe discussion thread

A snowHead

Starting this topic as this is coming up time and time again understandably on the “weather outlook thread “ and needs its own .

My observations after regular visits to the Haute Tarentaise over the last 20 years as a property owner about 8 to 10 weeks a year at mostly winter and summer but also in the Autumn. I’d like to stress that weather observing is a hobby of mine since childhood .

It’s obvious that things have been changing from what I would consider the norm and I’d say much more in the last few years .

Whilst I don’t deny it was never unusual to have rain events to a high level in deep winter there is no doubt in my mind that this is becoming more of a occurrence in recent years , this season especially I think we have so far had about five or six major rain events already whist the old norm would have been probably one or two .

Every storm always has a warm sector but I’d say this season these seem so much warmer so possibly 2 to 4c warmer than they used to be , in my head you would have seen rain to say 1800m now it’s up to 2400/2500m

The summers BTW are much warmer .
Over to you snowheads

A snowHead

It looks to me like the French north west alps have been suffering with the meridional flow of the jet stream this season and last. Freezing cold air to the north of the jetstream, hot to the south. Look at the record cold temps to be found across much of the northern hemisphere this year - North America, Scandinavia, China, all truly in the icebox this winter. Beijing has just had its coldest December since 1951.

The northwest French Alps seem to be unfortunately placed where the jetstream has been bending up from the south, with the results that we've been seeing as we've flipped repeatedly from being on the frigid north side, with healthy snow depths pretty much everywhere over 1500m or so, to being on the south side which brings atmospheric conveyors of heat and wet from the Atlantic straight to the Savoies...

I am on the "not convinced" wing of the climate change debate, but only through observation and experience rather than politics. The politics on both sides of that debate are utterly toxic, from an almost religious denial of the scientific method on the believer side to a General Melchett-style total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face on the denier side.

However, I remember the extremely poor snow years of the eighties all too well and I can remember many ridiculously deep snow years since. Last year Utah had so much snow that it nearly refilled the Great Salt Lake in one melt season.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

i think also similar. Generally speaking there is a change according to the data & statistics
however i have to point something.
Today you can check up every day how is the weather in e.g. Haute Tarentaise
But what about in 2001? or 1995?
During those days, with no internet, or snowheads or web cam you have to wait to find whats going on from someone who just came back, or by your arrival.

Except that, i have in memory pictures from all the big snowfalls in Greece (where i live as a child)
But nothing from mild wet winters. And definitely there were some of them

Hope you got my point. And once again i do not doubt for something.
But definitely we have a kind of selective memory

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Not sure there is much to debate is there? Quoting NASA:

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The lack of easily available information from the pre-internet days has to be part of this. It's not so long ago that you could have no knowledge of how the weather was in the next country, never mind a 1000kms away in the Alps, except for an occasional and distinctly marketing-led report from the local SCGB rep.

Certainly even 15 years ago it would have been impossible to know about, for instance, a rainy day in the Tarentaise in January if you weren't actually there.

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Or are you after anecdotal evidence?

If so yeah, it rained in Les Coches (1450m) season before last for 2-3 days. And in 3V in early April the freezing level was 3000m for a whole week. In 30 years I don't recall anything this "extreme".

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@shannyla, ah, so we are debating the science

Here is a place to start I guess...

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

I'm not debating any science. I'm not a scientist of any note, even less a climate scientist. Or an NGO lobbyist. Or an oil or coal industry lobbyist.

However, this bit seems to get forgotten when it comes to climate: " It involves careful observation, applying rigorous skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions can distort how one interprets the observation."

You can look up the rest of the wikipedia link for the scientific method in your own time.

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Did I stumble into a time machine and wake up in the year 2004?

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Which is great if you live in Paris, were allowed access to the archives and could have conceivably understood what you were looking at.

I was obviously talking about from the perspective of the layman-skier, seeing as how we're on a skiing forum. And I would argue almost all Snowheads members are entirely laymen when it comes to weather, other than the few who aren't.

@Rob Mackley, yes I'm now getting paranoid that this could be the new norm, that said, here in Serre Che all the mid stations, of which there are 4 or 5, spread about along the 10km or so of valley, are at 1900-2100, and were built there a good 30-40 years ago, so what does that say?

Way back then there were no snow canon hence the teaching beginner areas were also at the mid-station on beginner friendly plateaus and if there was no snow people downloaded via the gondolas.

However obviously all the talk is now about how bad this rain is, and we just had a friend round to collect their dog who likes to come over here and she said it's the worst she's known it in well over 30 years.

Hopefully, normal service will be resumed, remember how bad the first four months of last season were and then we had Janvril right at the end!

And already this season I've skied some lines I've not done for three or so years above 2,000, however the cross country on the valley floor is a washout Sad

You know it makes sense.

Not sure about the weather, or even about the climate - but we've all seen, within our time, the receding glaciers. We can even see it's accelerating.

So no debate about the facts.

Maybe a debate about the causes.

And then a debate about the solutions - if possible something that doesn't involve me not skiing anymore, please.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

simply not enough accurate data. Remember seeing cars with 2m of snow on the roofs during one of the years either side of covid.

You simply cant go by the last few years & predict from that.
Its been cold & dry here. I cant accurately predict it is going to be cold & dry for the rest of the year.

A snowHead

A snowHead

@Weathercam, Yep fair point about the station heights pre snowmaking on industrial scale , also it’s been pointed out elsewhere that the moisture levels increase by 10% per 1c hence the precipitation totals . Re this season I think @shannyla, makes a point re the curve in Jet stream positioning this season . The temperature gradientat times has been vast , between 50km has gone from cold to almost tropical

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

@patrick!, except glacial retreat needs to be decomposed at least into (normal cycle) & (human forced excess retreat) to be used as a signal.

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We’ve been recording global temperatures fairly systematically (as I understand it; I’m not a natural scientist) since about 1880, and every month since last May has been the hottest month ever recorded; ocean temperatures have set a new all-time high in 2023.

Sure, that’s a relatively short time period in human, let alone geological history, but anyone who says there’s ‘not enough data’ is uninformed, bullshitting, or both. In the words of Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, "The only really important question is, 'How many more years like this we have to have before the reality of how bad climate change is breaks into the public's consciousness?'"

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@JayRo, +1

But don't you feel that the younger demographics are already getting it?

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^ that wot JayRo said!

Thirty years ago the general gist was that the days of skiing below 1500m were numbered. Now you can look at most of the ski areas in the Western Alps that are below 1500m and see that their days are quite clearly numbered. Who will be booking holidays in Les Gets, or Praz sur Arly, or Morillion next year? Who would want to invest in a ski area reliant on slopes below at least 1500m? Once the people go the lifts will close. This is all exactly as predicted by the science that thirty years ago many people said was all wrong. The ski seasons in the alps are now quite insecure unless you head somewhere above 2000 metres. It's very sad, particularly because it was all quite clearly predicted, and we all knew what we had to do to make it stop. Unfortunately some people have been more interested in making sure we all carried on as usual and so here we are.

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@Rob Mackley, Thanks for starting really interesting topic. Dont think anyone on here can challenge your “gut feel” and it raises questions around what property buyers should consider. I think property prices in resorts with quick access to high altitude skiing (eg 3v or Vd’I) are probably double those of mid altitude areas such as PDS. This is partly fuelled by fact that it rains in the valleys not leaving a lot above the snow line to play with - and ski kit being wet by lunchtime, or even the trending concern that 2 days’ rain will wash away all the snow. Couple of questions here are how quickly will the Snowline creep up and does altitude really have an advantage in the medium term, and is paying a big premium for high-access property really fool’s gold at this point in time?

@Ozboy, Bringing property prices into play wow that will create even more debate …. But good point .

I note that your base is Chatel there is no doubt that the PDS is changing its appeal with the changing climate to an all year round destination rather than just a winter one .

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I have driven through the Arly Valley several times in the last year
Each time I have been astonished at the amount of new building of ' aspirational" chalets. This is a ski forum but it's not all about skiing. Holiday homes in beautiful surroundings command a high price. Look at the Lake District, for example. And come spring, summer or autumn Praz sur Arly is a more attractive destination than Tignes!

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The Arly valley is particularly pretty. I did my first season in Praz Sur Arly in the late 1980s.

I was in Praz sur Arly for the season in 87/88 I think.

You know it makes sense.

Just ask anyone who has lived in an area for 50 years or more. They will tell you how the climate has changed over that period. The change is even noticeable over the last 20 years. It’s the cold we need to focus on. Marginal conditions can give heavy snow. Here in the UK winter it feels that we are now on the wrong side of marginal. It must be relevant that we have just had the hottest 12 months in recorded meteorology. It’s probably not surprising that winter is producing frequent periods of rain in the wetter parts of the Alps?

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

I was in Praz sur Arly today and it was very wet.

A snowHead

@pavlf,

A snowHead

In Praz sur Arly too. I stayed for 4 days in Combloux, in May. The Tourist Office was open all day (well, sauf le pause dej) and though it was very low season, the village was very much alive. Splendid boulangeries, lovely wine in the supermarket. Good walks, cows with bells. We didn't bother going up to Les Saisies villllage, which would have been dead, with just about everything closed. The British view of the Alps is very one- sided. As the plain becomes hotter the Alps become an increasingly attractive escape. The people investing in those new chalets are not daft.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

In the nearly 25 years I have been in Munich there has been a definite change. The summers less noticeably so, there were usually hot days well in excess of 30 degrees but now there are more and 35 is not unusual. The main effect is that there are now days when you stay inside in the afternoon much as in countries south of the alps. In the winter the snow does not hang around as long as it used to. Perhaps there is less snow but there is definitely more rain which washes away the snow. Ice skating on the local lakes is now rare, when I first came most winters there would be at least a week when it was possible.

I suspect it is going to have an effect on mountain recreation (not just the obvious skiing issues). July & August have been the season for the high mountains with the really high huts closing in mid September and the lower ones open until mid or end of October. However high summer is now becoming increasingly unpleasant, too hot for strenuous walking. The less hot days of September & October are much more pleasant even if there is less daylight. Will we see the mountain walking season change?

Not sure many here are members of the Alpine Club, the latest Alpine Journal (free for members) features a number of articles on this very topic, looking at the Himalayas, Alps and effects on the guiding profession.

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@under a new name, investment isn't always smart. Look at all the houses being built on flood plains in the UK for instance. Or what about all the massive building projects happening in coastal cities we can expect to flood relatively soon. The novelist Amitav Ghosh describes the period we are living through as the great derangement and I'm not inclined to disagree (look at all the investment in expanding airports and airtravel around the world). Investment is continuing 'as if' everything is going carry on as normal.

Regards Praz, I'm not singling it out as a place that is doomed. Probably for skiing it's got another ten or so years, but no one is going to pay to maintain the lifts when fewer people head to places like that for skiing. It's a very nice village and has (had) an air of reality about it that I liked. People will no doubt continue to go there, perhaps in increasing numbers to escape the heat? Who knows. Skiing won't be happening there much longer though. Maybe I'm wrong. I do hope so!

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@pavlf, “great derangement” haha love that, it’s perfect

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I learned to ski at 6, in 1971. And have lived through climate change in the Alps and Pyrenees.

In 1984, I went summer skiing in Zermatt after my gymnasium diploma. End of July, the descent would go all the way to Trockener Steg at 2900.

Nowadays, the glacier ends a kilometre uphill in the direction of Plateau Rosa

A KILOMETER in glacier length, lost in the course of 40 years.

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@under a new name, he liked it so much he made it the title for a book (a very good book too)!

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There is no debate.

The facts and evidence are overwhelming.

Global boiling and global drying are smashing the European Alps.

Snowfall has declined 10-30% in 50 years.

Skiable yearround glaciers have declined -95% in 30 years.

The average ski-season length has shrunk by 1 month since the 1970s.

Less snow, more heat, more rain, more melt.

Here's what's happening...

First, the boiling summer heatwaves of the 2000s totally trashed the European glaciers (e.g. Tignes, 2003).

Now, the boiling winter heatwaves of the 2020s are trashing the European low-level ski areas (e.g. Morzine, 1000m, 2023).

You can see every year getting hotter and hotter and hotter.

By the 2030s, it's not hard to see the mid-level European ski areas getting trashed (e.g. 1500m).

By the 2040s, it's not hard to see the high-level European ski areas getting trashed (e.g. 2000m).

Ski every day.

Enjoy it -- while you still can.

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If there's excess demand prices will rise. There was a time, not long ago, when few people could afford skiing. That will happen again. I agree about the sadness driving through the Jura.

Help!!

Climate change in the Alpine Areas of Europe discussion thread

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