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Goodbye El Niño, hello La Niña!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
We're currently in the neutral phase between the two, but it's looking likely (65% chance) to change by the end of the month, with currently an 85% chance of having a La Niña winter. With N. America seeing more obvious effects, what will this mean for Europe?

This is last month's long range forecast from On The Snow, but Reuters and various other news agencies/climate observation sites are also reporting forecast changes.

https://www.onthesnow.co.uk/news/long-range-weather-forecast-for-europe/

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
And lo, we unleash the AWESOME POWER of guesswork.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
One person's guesswork is another's mathematical probability...
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
**BREAKING**
Using privileged access, I've acquired a partial set of data from the US NOAA Long Range Weather Forecasting service... Published in raw format straight from their supercomputer for the SH's to review!

00110011000001101000
00110010011001100100
01101101011001100110
10011001100111101110
1001100¯\_(ツ)_/¯10000
00011001100010111001
10001100110011001011
00100110011001111100
11110110110011001111
00101100110011001000
10000110011001100111

Proof conclusive, expect a rare Baja Naña season!


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 17-06-24 11:47; edited 1 time in total
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
MajorQ wrote:
what will this mean for Europe?


A return to a more normal winter with the long term warming trend in the background.
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Laughing
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Richard_Sideways wrote:
**BREAKING**
Using privileged access, I've acquired a partial set of data from the US NOAA Long Range Weather Forecasting service... Published in raw format straight from their supercomputer for the SH's to review!

00110011000001101000
00110010011001100100
01101101011001100110
10011001100111101110
1001100¯\_(ツ)_/¯10000
00011001100010111001
10001100110011001011
00100110011001111100
11110110110011001111
00101100110011001000
10000110011001100111

Proof conclusive, expect a rare Baja Naña season!


Laughing
snow conditions
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
MajorQ wrote:
One person's guesswork is another's mathematical probability...


In my lexicon now

Thanks
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Is there enough weather left for the next season?
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
The Daily Express make this prediction every year rolling eyes
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
davidof wrote:
MajorQ wrote:
what will this mean for Europe?


A return to a more normal winter with the long term warming trend in the background.


This!

Which makes, other than the Pacific region, very little difference from other years.


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Wed 19-06-24 15:44; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Tristero wrote:
davidof wrote:
MajorQ wrote:
what will this mean for Europe?


A return to a more normal winter with the long term warming trend in the background.


This!

Which makes, other than the North American Pacific region, very little difference from other years.


You ignoring Japan then
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Gored wrote:
Tristero wrote:
davidof wrote:
MajorQ wrote:
what will this mean for Europe?


A return to a more normal winter with the long term warming trend in the background.


This!

Which makes, other than the North American Pacific region, very little difference from other years.


You ignoring Japan then


True! FIFY.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I’m in interior bc. We had snow yesterday. Two years ago we had the heat dome. Last year very hot. Makes a massive difference here.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
We still have the super computer forecasts to look forward to later on in the year
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Scientists say they can now forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation years in advance

The next El Niño Southern Oscillation can be predicted more than two years in advance, according to a new study that looked at thousands of years of past climate data.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate cycle that is characterized by the cooling (La Niña) and warming (El Niño) of the sea surface above the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one of the strongest and most predictable weather patterns affecting the global climate. Using various climate models, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been forecasting ENSO events about six to 12 months in advance. But the new study, published June 16 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, more than doubles that prediction window in some instances.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Alastair Pink, "in some instances".
I can predict the lottery numbers "in some instances"
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
“They've done studies, you know. 60 percent of the time, it works *every* time”
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
They can predict most things, except when Mother Nature decides to send the "curve ball" Toofy Grin
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