 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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As well as the SAGE minutes Sky are also reporting "government officials" drawing up plans for a lockdown starting on the 26th.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Don't worry, I'm sure you'll be able to break out the skis on your local hill for your hour's exercise
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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There has been so much change in people’s behaviour recently, evidenced by all the restaurant and theatre cancellations widely reported. It feels they aren’t given that the chance to have an impact. We have a funeral to attend in 29th I am praying that we don’t get prevented from going it is my husbands Nan and they were very close growing up.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
| There has been so much change in people’s behaviour recently, evidenced by all the restaurant and theatre cancellations widely reported. It feels they aren’t given that the chance to have an impact. We have a funeral to attend in 29th I am praying that we don’t get prevented from going it is my husbands Nan and they were very close growing up. |
Sorry to hear that, NJ. Condolences and I hope you are allowed to attend.
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What I can’t understand is the utter obsession with Christmas Day, if they think we need a lockdown, then have it . Stop pandering to a day that can be rearranged to a suitable date after the lockdown.
You don’t see the fire brigade waiting on the gas canisters going up before they tackle the fire
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As in the first and second waves, government is already too late in introducing restrictions. They only really work well when implemented quickly and severely. We did not fully understand this for the first wave, although there was good science on this from an epidemiological perspective it was not specific to Covid 19. What is sad now is we well understand the dynamics and you can see the palpable discomfort of the scientific advisors that politicians are unwilling to take what are obvious steps needed to protect the healthcare system.
There will be another lockdown, it is inevitable, it will be painful for us all and will also sadly be too little too late. Simple extrapolation of current data (especially rising hospitalisations rates in London) shows NHS capacity will be severely breached sometime around mid-January. It is already too late to prevent this happening, we would have to already be in quite strict lockdown to do so. There will be some scary numbers in the next week or two, such that there is no option but to reimpose restrictions. What makes me angry is that we will all suffer from another lockdown without gaining the benefits of going early and hard. In short lots of pain for little gain. It is beyond me why we our leaders seem unable to understand the scientific advice they are given, and why the population at large does not get angry about it.
My prediction is more restrictions next week, probably affecting restaurants and bars. Followed by the rule of 6. This will be followed by full lockdown the first week of January. There is a sad predictability and inevitability to it all.
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We rearranged Christmas for June last year. Had it all arranged and shopped for, and my Dad fell and broke his hip 2 days before.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
I am praying that we don’t get prevented from going it is my husbands Nan and they were very close growing up.
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@NickyJ, sorry to hear that. It must be awful not knowing what you can or can't do.
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@Jonny996, I could not agree with you more. Christmas to me is only important as we take time for friends and family, indulge each other with gifts, and enjoy lots of fine food and drink together. That can be done at any time, it is not more "special" because it is on 25 December. I would go further and add 2 additional public holidays next year, and engage the population in rescheduling Christmas to then. We should have made that choice 2 weeks ago.
It is easy to forget that many people celebrate Christmas on a different day already. My wife's family are medics and they have pretty much always had to choose a different day over the period to "do" Christmas as someone is inevitably working or on call on Christmas day. This is true for many others (care home staff, emergency services, armed forces, etc.). No big deal imv.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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SAGE do love their gloomy predictions
I don’t believe there will be another lockdown, can’t afford it and I don’t think many people will take any notice.
If it’s doubling every day, everyone will have it come NYE
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I have never understood the obsession with Christmas, most people are not really religious and the never ending debate as to who gets their parents/grand parents. Best Christmas's for me was skiing with my wife and daughter in Obergurgle three years in row when we use to drive down from Germany.
Absolute bliss not a Brussel Sprout in site.
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| zikomo wrote: |
As in the first and second waves, government is already too late in introducing restrictions. They only really work well when implemented quickly and severely. We did not fully understand this for the first wave, although there was good science on this from an epidemiological perspective it was not specific to Covid 19. What is sad now is we well understand the dynamics and you can see the palpable discomfort of the scientific advisors that politicians are unwilling to take what are obvious steps needed to protect the healthcare system.
There will be another lockdown, it is inevitable, it will be painful for us all and will also sadly be too little too late. Simple extrapolation of current data (especially rising hospitalisations rates in London) shows NHS capacity will be severely breached sometime around mid-January. It is already too late to prevent this happening, we would have to already be in quite strict lockdown to do so. There will be some scary numbers in the next week or two, such that there is no option but to reimpose restrictions. What makes me angry is that we will all suffer from another lockdown without gaining the benefits of going early and hard. In short lots of pain for little gain. It is beyond me why we our leaders seem unable to understand the scientific advice they are given, and why the population at large does not get angry about it.
My prediction is more restrictions next week, probably affecting restaurants and bars. Followed by the rule of 6. This will be followed by full lockdown the first week of January. There is a sad predictability and inevitability to it all. |
Why do you think locking down on day one will stop it ? It wont and cant . The purpose of lockdowns are to slow the spread to allow health services to cope, you allow a set number of people to catch it then slow the spread, this has worked both times, if you lockdown too quick and a only a few are infected and it spreads very slowly and you then unlock it spreads quickly and large numbers become infected and you have to lock down again to slow it. It's not rocket science
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You know it makes sense.
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Sadly I can see another lockdown looming , read an interesting article yesterday regarding Covid hospitalisations. Of the 11 on a particular ward 9 had been unvaccinated, the youngest being 19 and the oldest 48. Vaccinations should be compulsory not a choice , I’m sick to death of the conspiracy theories or if I get I’ll let my natural immune system fight it . I’ve never been concerned about catching it but more the fact I don’t wish to pass onto someone elderly or vulnerable and that’s what the unvaxxers fail to grasp.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Heavy snow forecast on Xmas morning where I am. I have frozen sprouts, fresh sprouts, and there are some growing in the garden but I probably will not eat them. Boxing day is forecast to be -4c maximum at midday, with sunshine!
I think I might take a lateral flow test, before they expire!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| robs1 wrote: |
Why do you think locking down on day one will stop it ? It wont and cant . The purpose of lockdowns are to slow the spread to allow health services to cope, you allow a set number of people to catch it then slow the spread, this has worked both times, if you lockdown too quick and a only a few are infected and it spreads very slowly and you then unlock it spreads quickly and large numbers become infected and you have to lock down again to slow it. It's not rocket science |
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| robs1 wrote: |
Why do you think locking down on day one will stop it ? It wont and cant . The purpose of lockdowns are to slow the spread to allow health services to cope, you allow a set number of people to catch it then slow the spread, this has worked both times, if you lockdown too quick and a only a few are infected and it spreads very slowly and you then unlock it spreads quickly and large numbers become infected and you have to lock down again to slow it. It's not rocket science |
Well nobody has claimed that locking down will stop it immediately. Cases will contain to climb for another 2 weeks after the start of any lockdown. It does bring the peak forward though.
Is locking down when you currently have 90k cases a day (more realistically >200k a day) your idea of "only a few"?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Lock down for those double jabbed and boosted might be a tough sell. Targeted lockdown for the unvaccinated?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| robs1 wrote: |
| zikomo wrote: |
As in the first and second waves, government is already too late in introducing restrictions. They only really work well when implemented quickly and severely. We did not fully understand this for the first wave, although there was good science on this from an epidemiological perspective it was not specific to Covid 19. What is sad now is we well understand the dynamics and you can see the palpable discomfort of the scientific advisors that politicians are unwilling to take what are obvious steps needed to protect the healthcare system.
There will be another lockdown, it is inevitable, it will be painful for us all and will also sadly be too little too late. Simple extrapolation of current data (especially rising hospitalisations rates in London) shows NHS capacity will be severely breached sometime around mid-January. It is already too late to prevent this happening, we would have to already be in quite strict lockdown to do so. There will be some scary numbers in the next week or two, such that there is no option but to reimpose restrictions. What makes me angry is that we will all suffer from another lockdown without gaining the benefits of going early and hard. In short lots of pain for little gain. It is beyond me why we our leaders seem unable to understand the scientific advice they are given, and why the population at large does not get angry about it.
My prediction is more restrictions next week, probably affecting restaurants and bars. Followed by the rule of 6. This will be followed by full lockdown the first week of January. There is a sad predictability and inevitability to it all. |
Why do you think locking down on day one will stop it ? It wont and cant . The purpose of lockdowns are to slow the spread to allow health services to cope, you allow a set number of people to catch it then slow the spread, this has worked both times, if you lockdown too quick and a only a few are infected and it spreads very slowly and you then unlock it spreads quickly and large numbers become infected and you have to lock down again to slow it. It's not rocket science |
I did not say that locking down on day one would stop it. In fact I did not say anything at all about stopping it. I agree that the most beneficial effect of lockdowns is to "slow the spread to allow health services to cope" as you say, and what I referred to was NHS capacity. My point is that we have already passed the point where it is possible to slow the spread to any meaningful extent. An already stressed healthcare system (currently at 97% capacity) will be overwhelmed by the number of infections that have already happened. Best estimations are between 300k and 400k infections PER DAY right now, and as Omicron is now dominant it will double every couple of days. Even if only a tiny proportion of those infections result in hospitalisation, it very quickly becomes a very large number.
We had very good indications early on that booster vaccinations would significantly reduce hospitalisations and resultant deaths, so slowing the spread is doubly important as it allows time to boost more people. In essence an early lockdown would have a double impact of slowing the spread by and of itself, and also increasing the number of people with a booster vaccination BEFORE they are exposed to the new variant and thus further reducing overall hospitalisations and deaths.
The argument that everyone will get it so why bother doing anything to slow the spread of infections is fundamentally flawed as it ignores the effect of vaccinations and boosters. By not locking down early, significantly more people will be exposed to the Omicron variant before they have effective protection from their booster. This will inevitably lead to significantly more hospitalisations and sadly deaths than would otherwise have been the case. Plus the additional deaths caused by other health needs not being met by an overwhelmed healthcare system. These additional deaths will be real people whose deaths were preventable had the spread if infections been effectively slowed down. As it stands we will end up in lockdown anyway as the capacity crises in the NHS becomes acute, that lockdown will be painful for all of us, but we will not get the real benefit in terms of saving lives because it came too late.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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What all these got to do with piste?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| AB Ski wrote: |
| Lock down for those double jabbed and boosted might be a tough sell. Targeted lockdown for the unvaccinated? |
Impossible to police.
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| zikomo wrote: |
@Jonny996, I could not agree with you more. Christmas to me is only important as we take time for friends and family, indulge each other with gifts, and enjoy lots of fine food and drink together. That can be done at any time, it is not more "special" because it is on 25 December. I would go further and add 2 additional public holidays next year, and engage the population in rescheduling Christmas to then. We should have made that choice 2 weeks ago.
It is easy to forget that many people celebrate Christmas on a different day already. My wife's family are medics and they have pretty much always had to choose a different day over the period to "do" Christmas as someone is inevitably working or on call on Christmas day. This is true for many others (care home staff, emergency services, armed forces, etc.). No big deal imv. |
I’d agree with this if I didn’t have a 9 year old who still believes in Santa. Telling him Santa isn’t coming for a few more weeks so that granny can share your last Christmas of believing (having not seen the last 2 years either - covid last year, in-laws turn the year before) doesn’t wash. I want my parents to be able to share the magic one last time. We’ll all take a lat flow before we meet and we are all boosted. I can meet up and have a roast another time, but you can’t recreate the magic of Christmas for kids any other day of the year, and be able to explain it!
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| Boris wrote: |
SAGE do love their gloomy predictions
I don’t believe there will be another lockdown, can’t afford it and I don’t think many people will take any notice.
If it’s doubling every day, everyone will have it come NYE |
Prof Ferguson does seem to be on the gloom end of the scale. His predictions of doom over the summer post Freedom Day certainly didn’t come to pass. So whilst the current situation isn’t good, the Ferguson predictions hopefully won’t come to pass.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Complete bull$hit, and I won’t be adhering to any “lockdown” or restrictions over Christmas if they attempt to put this in. All the people I have spoken too over the last week from the pub, friends, family, people at church, work etc all feel the same. Omicron has caused 8 (yes  deaths so far, more people have bloody died from cancer in 1hr in the UK. I have followed all rules over the last 2 years, but enough is enough and restrictions, lockdowns and scaremongering has gone on too far. All this in the wake of Downing Street Christmas parties whilst the UK public died in their hundreds each day, and people still listen to “how we should act”. I will continue wearing a mask, I will be getting my booster next Wednesday, but restricting where I can go, when I can go and who with won’t be happening anymore.
Omicron is a massive over reaction. The data tells us is is far more serious with infections and how it spreads, but the deaths are far lower than the other variants. Everyone just get on with your lives, ensure you are triple jabbed and enjoy Christmas
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| Quote: |
Targeted lockdown for the unvaccinated?
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That's essentially what they're doing in places like Germany.
Want to go in to a shop, bar, restaurant or the Gluhwein stall at the Christmas market? Then show your vaccination cert and ID.
Want to go on public transport? They do allow test no older than 24 hours for that.
For the office is the same, show cert, proof of recovery or a daily test.
Only public places an unvaxxed can legally go now is a supermarket or a pharmacy, pretty much. It's gonna get tiring though having to show status all the time. But I don't mind getting my phone out, so long as the unvaxxed are having to pay for daily tests (free ones ended, and only those done at a test center count)
Not a lockdown as such... just a "make life difficult for all, but a lot more difficult for the unjabbed"
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
Omicron is a massive over reaction
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There's a lot of wishful thinking going on - and on the other hand, a lot of panic. That statement falls into the former category - we just don't have the data. The picture is becoming clearer daily - the inescapable truth is that we have to "wait and see" and it's fascinating to see, in the people around us, the difference between people who can live with uncertainty and those who can't.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@pam w, +1
We have to wait for the 2-3 week time lag between the first infections and hospital admissions. The first identified cases of the new variant were only 3 weeks ago.
With the significant rise in infection numbers only coming in the last week, it will be New Year before we can be sure of the effect on Hospitalisation.
Even if it only causes half the rate as the Delta variant, the fact that infections are more than double means more people in Hospital.
It's simple Maths people. Most of us learnt it before Primary School.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
Omicron is a massive over reaction
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There's a lot of wishful thinking going on |
Totally!
| Quote: |
| The picture is becoming clearer daily - the inescapable truth is that we have to "wait and see" and it's fascinating to see, in the people around us, the difference between people who can live with uncertainty and those who can't. |
Unfortunately, it's a bit more complicated than that. Lockdowns, if imposed, should be now, before cases explodes and hospital overwhelmed. Sadly, the delay effect of Covid makes a late lockdown completely pointless, whilst the "going about business as usual" at the moment is helping the spread massively. If, an "if" I hope not become a reality, but if Omicron turns out to be as severe as Delta, we'll be in a whole new world of hurt in about 2-4 weeks time!
Our only hope is we get lucky with Omicron being significantly less severe than Delta. If not, we'll be seriously screwed if it's anywhere close to how severe Delta is.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Sat 18-12-21 17:34; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| brianatab wrote: |
@pam w, +1
We have to wait for the 2-3 week time lag between the first infections and hospital admissions. The first identified cases of the new variant were only 3 weeks ago.
With the significant rise in infection numbers only coming in the last week, it will be New Year before we can be sure of the effect on Hospitalisation.
Even if it only causes half the rate as the Delta variant, the fact that infections are more than double means more people in Hospital.
It's simple Maths people. Most of us learnt it before Primary School. |
That’s the bit I can’t understand - it is simple to grasp that a. it’s too early to know and b. if there are vast numbers of cases then even if it’s milder there will be lots of hospitalisation. Radio phone in yesterday and caller just couldn’t grasp it - “we’ll agree to disagree” - no it’s just simple maths - there’s nothing to disagree with!
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Poster: A snowHead
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On an optimistic (or more realistically, confusing) note, new cases have stabilised over the last three days and are a smidge lower today than yesterday.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I also agree that an early lockdown (probably now minus 48 hours) would have made sense, in public health terms. But they aren't the only terms kicking around. I don't envy the decision-makers. So easy to pontificate when we have no influence!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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On another note - why’s this in The Piste?
Shouldn’t it be in Apres with the other 7 zillion threads
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Also material is the fact that hospitalisations appear to be shorter in length than with Delta. Another difficulty in trying to rationalise the current situation is the lack of hard data, for example one report published today put the number of people in hospital with Omicron at 65 on 14 December. No breakdown provided whether this was the cause of the hospitalisation, or coincidental. A further difficulty is that accurate modelling is almost impossible as people change their behaviour and make their own decisions regarding the risks associated with their daily lives.
I think the gvt has moved far more quickly than it did with Delta (due to Boris' planned Hurrah in India). Further the booster programme is really gaining momentum.
3 and a bit weeks later - the time period we are told it would take to know more about cases in SA and the data emerging suggests that the peak has passed in Gauteng. Hospitalisations were shorter and deaths fewer than with Delta and yet we are told that this is due to higher levels of immunity and younger age of population - UK has almost 3 times higher rate of vaccination which may offset this demographic advantage.
Sensible changes have been made to self-isolation to mitigate the 'pingdemic'. My entirely inexpert view is to adopt a pragmatic approach which promotes individual as well as collective responsibility.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It is the perfect storm :
- Omicron variant with extremely rapid transmission.
- Fatigued population that doesnt want another lockdown
- Xmas.
I think things about to get a little rowdy...
Though I am not sure what benefit another lockdown would actually bring.
Lockdown(s) made sense at start of pandemic when population weren't vaccinated.
However if vaccine doesn't fully protect against Omicron then we need a natural immunity.
Hopefully rising cases will cause people to be more cautious and naturally spread the curve for hospitals admissions (etc)
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sat 18-12-21 18:11; edited 1 time in total
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| abc wrote: |
| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
Omicron is a massive over reaction
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There's a lot of wishful thinking going on |
Totally!
| Quote: |
| The picture is becoming clearer daily - the inescapable truth is that we have to "wait and see" and it's fascinating to see, in the people around us, the difference between people who can live with uncertainty and those who can't. |
Unfortunately, it's a bit more complicated than that. Lockdowns, if imposed, should be now, before cases explodes and hospital overwhelmed. Sadly, the delay effect of Covid makes a late lockdown completely pointless, whilst the "going about business as usual" at the moment is helping the spread massively. If, an "if" I hope not become a reality, but if Omicron turns out to be as severe as Delta, we'll be in a whole new world of hurt in about 2-4 weeks time!
Our only hope is we get lucky with Omicron being significantly less severe than Delta. If not, we'll be seriously screwed if it's anywhere close to how severe Delta is. |
Except people aren’t going about their business as usual. Restaurants and theatres etc have seen massive cancellations. Mask wearing is mandatory which allegedly makes a difference. People have been asked to limit their social interactions to what really matters and there is evidence that people are listening
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| The Flying Snowplough wrote: |
| On an optimistic (or more realistically, confusing) note, new cases have stabilised over the last three days and are a smidge lower today than yesterday. |
Wales do not release figures on Saturday’s. Not sure if any other home nations do the same. Expect 100k+ next week!
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@The Flying Snowplough, The numbers going into hospital are increasing slightly, the total number in hospital is plateauing, the number in intensive care is falling slightly. Given over 47 % of over 12s have now had a booster, there is cause for hope.
I suspect hospitality would rather be shut down as it will be easier to establish the right to gov money. Hence all the doomladen interviews.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
Hospitalisations were shorter and deaths fewer than with Delta and yet we are told that this is due to higher levels of immunity and younger age of population - UK has almost 3 times higher rate of vaccination which may offset this demographic advantage.
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My understanding (which might well be wrong) is that because of the low levels of vaccination in S Africa the population made a big leap forward in immunity after high rates of infection by Delta. So hospitalisation would have been lower anyway, even if there were no difference in virulence of Omicron. So Omicron has had less of an impact on severe illness and death in S Africa, than Delta did in S Africa. Transferring that difference across to a completely different population is not straightforward. Apples and Pears.
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We’ve hardly had low levels of Delta infection and we’ve got high level of vaccinations and boosters. If anything we should be in better position
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FAQ
