How might the pandemic change skiing in the long term??

A snowHead

I thought it might be interesting to think about whether there might be any long term changes to skiing and ski resorts as a result of the pandemic. Obviously "how might my skiing holidays be affected" is rather trivial compared to some of the bigger consequences of Covid, both health and economic, but since this is a skiing forum...

Here are some possibilities:

- higher prices for flights, accommodation, lift tickets etc. as businesses seek to recoup their losses from 2020-21
- a more cautious approach to big investments, and perhaps a shift away from non-enclosed lifts towards chairs
- quicker diversification into other winter activities apart from alpine skiing, for resorts that haven't been able to open their lifts
- a boom in ski touring / nordic skiing after people "get a taste" this winter
- a decline in chalets and increase in self catered accommodation
- greater focus on domestic rather than international markets (e.g. new regional lift passes)

For smaller resorts:
- accelerated decline of the financially vulnerable ones
- a quicker move to hands free / online ticket sales (this has happened in Scotland for example)

All speculation, and I don't believe all of these will necessarily happen!

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

If resorts could charge more for stuff they'd be doing it already. Ski resorts are not charities. Prices are probably what the market could stand in 2019/20 - whether post covid people have as much spending money remains to be seen.

It is like landlords saying they'll have to jack up rent if x or y measure is taken.

That said, governments are pumping a lot of funny money into the system. When they did that in 2008 it caused revolutions in the Arab world. Who knows what will happen this time? The Great Reset dreamed of by Harry and Meg where the plebs are put back in their boxes?

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China's ski resorts today are open as normal and seeing unprecedented growth, approaching +100% or more.

The US is open mostly as normal.

Only Europe is the disaster zone.

The current season 20/21 is mostly a writeoff.

When the taps reopen big in 21/22 -- postvaccine -- expect flight and accommodation prices to rocket.

Lots of pentup demand.

Book early for next year.

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Supply and demand. I guess if the world is considerably covid safe next year, then I think there will demand for holidays. Hence, higher prices. Especially budget airlines. Easyjet already has the new baggage rules.
Been looking for xmas next year. I want to book, she wants to wait....

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I would guess you are right about prices in the short to medium term. Ultimately though success needs numbers, and prices should reduce even if not to the old real level. The reason is your second, lift operators and airlines alike are likely to be more cautious about investments and want a clear path to benefiting from them - which means no oversupply and really low prices.

My guess is that the non-ski activities, or touring/cross-country that don't require lifts operating, are not going to be sufficient to support most resorts so while doing diverse things might be encouraged it won't be massively different. I don't quite buy your chalet self-catered shift, those who don't want to cook for themselves will still exist and it won't matter whether they eat in restaurants, hotels or chalets, the industry will adapt to cater for them, And I suspect, but don't know, that in most places the domestic market has long been saturated and that they depend on attracting a good proportion of international visitors.

Smaller resorts have been vulnerable for quite a while, while they will probably all have a small loyal clientele they will need to find the right niche market to survive.

In the longer term climate change (see separate thread) is a bigger threat. Shortening the season means more money needs to be earned when snow is sure; even with the big resorts the links between sectors will become vulnerable.

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I think it depends on whether you see corona as a long term problem, or a short term one. Economically, it may well be a long term problem, but otherwise I think there will be pent-up demand for everything we haven’t been able to do this year. From the perspective of a ski resort, climate change is a much longer term problem, and it is for this reason that I think the opposite of what is suggested – that resorts will invest *more* in gondolas because they can be used in summer too. Diversification is already happening, but it’s into summer sports like hiking and mountain biking rather than ski alternatives to try to maintain a year round attraction for tourists.

If there is a decline in chalets, it’s because the business model is not longer viable (it’s too expensive) rather than because people don’t want to share. They may not want to share right now, but I don’t think they will feel that way by next season. Same for travelling – the industry will take a while to recover, but once travel is easy again, then people will want to go, using whatever method is left! The local/regional economies of ski areas are not generally large enough to sustain ski resorts on their own without international tourists – local ski passes are just a way of boosting early revenue at a sustainable level.

I also suspect there will be a lot of lightly used touring setups on the market next year Toofy Grin

After all it is free

I think it'll be the end for catered chalets. Which is a shame, because we like them!

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Interesting question about airfares; which force will be more dominant:

1). Keep capacity limited, ie fewer planes, hence with high load factors, and ability to charge higher fares, to rebuild balance sheets.

2). Try to get the former travelling public flying again, and air crew re-certified, by getting as much of the fleet into the air as soon as possible. Implies low airfares as an enticement.

I think the answer is “it depends”. It depends on the current strength of that airline’s balance sheet and also their fixed vs variable cost structure.

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I was never a fan of the shared catered chalet anyway but I honestly can't see why anyone would want to share such a closed sealed in space with multiple strangers going forward.
I think there was already a move towards the smaller self catered apartment, fuelled by the ease of airbnb, I can only see that sector becoming more popular

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@Jonny996, why though? Some people don’t like sharing with strangers, and that’s fair enough, there are plenty of alternative options, but if you do enjoy that kind of experience, why would corona bother you once it’s under control? Yes, you can catch other viruses from other people, but that’s always been the case.

@Scarlet, true, I may be blinkered by my own thoughts

You know it makes sense.

8 strangers around a dining table in a chalet?
100 strangers barging in around the buffet table in the hotel dining room?
sounds like the end of hotel accommodation Wink

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

In my limited experience as soon as everything got back to near normality in Nz the ski fields were busier than I’ve ever seen them every day of the week. Lots of people learning. It was crazy.

Wouldn’t count on lots of cheap touring gear because most people will be using it to avoid the crowds.

Pricing here went up because there was more demand than supply - quite a few days of access closed due to crowds early in the morning.

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Most hotels that I've been to lately do buffet at breakfast time as standard.
Some you can order the cooked breakfast.
Can't say I do expensive hotels very often, but it's a long time since there was no buffet at breakfast.

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We’ve had other pandemics since the second war so I imagine we’ll get through this one too. But I imagine it will be a punctuation mark that will mean some groups stop skiing altogether. The much bigger issue remains climate change and there is no vaccine for that. Perhaps some ski areas will have a good look at their costs and see what savings they can make in the long term ?

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After all it is free

@Fridge03, There are some great solutions still out there. We did a trip a few years ago with Alpin-Chalet.com. They have an arrangement with local restaurants, bakeries et al to deliver ready made meals to your door. They were superb and I have a friend in Zermatt who offers the same service to their apartment guests. No more Spag Bol and crap puddings!!

Linky thing to Alpin-chalet for those interested. https://www.alpin-chalet.com/en/home/services/

I suspect the next year or two we will still see some effects, but not as major as some others seem to think. Long term I don't see why things wouldn't go back to normal. The vaccine should have things under control so no real reason in the long term things don't level out again.

I'm not sure why chalets get such a bashing on here. They seem pretty much the same deal as hotels - i.e. you get a private bedroom, and other spaces are communal. Chalets have helped provide cheap package skiing for many Brits and some people actually enjoy the social aspect of it. I can't see demand for catered chalets going down.

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@boarder2020, In parallel with the pandemic traditional chalet holidays are suffering the Brexit effect. From 1st January the normal chalet staffing model of seconding staff from the UK, (which while still paying French minimum wage allows many more deductions for board and lodgings etc, and avoids French social costs) is not possible unless some sort of additional deal is done. This will mean employing local staff who are much more expensive, or seconding staff from other cheap EU countries - this all costs more and is more difficult for operators, so the number of chalets will reduce, and the price will go up.

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@johnE, Probably right. As pensioners are also getting the vaccine first, standby for those Grey Sliders come March. Very Happy

Not sure I buy your Saturday to Saturday comment for Airbnb. We like most of the owners on Airbnb pre-set the ski season to only allow 7 night stays to maximise revenue. Most people who need accommodation in the winter tend to come for a week anyway. Short stays in winter (3 nights or less) are not cost effective for retailer or customer. We simply wouldn't bother.

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

@RedandWhiteFlachau, we did short stays in winter outside of high season, it often worked very well ...

A snowHead

Agree with the comments that brexit may have an effect on chalet model - think this is much more likely to cause change than due to covid in the long term. I still think the companies will find a way to make things work for chalets - perhaps seasonal visas, importing staff from other EU countries, outsourcing catering to local companies bringing in food as mentioned in the thread.

I've stayed in plenty of hostels the last few years that were staffed by volunteers, working in exchange for accomodation and food - no money. Throw in a lift pass and I think some people could be tempted by that alone. I'm not sure about the legalities of it all, but that didn't seem to stop the chalet model so far which didn't seem to correspond to French laws.

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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Dunno.

The sort of snow businesses I'm associated with have fairly flexible variable costs, so they ought to survive the negative blip the virus has caused. It's more like having a very long summer period than some sort of major financial trauma, to them. There's a loss of income, but not a serious business threat. Other businesses will no doubt crash and burn, but those types of businesses will likely be fairly easy to replace.

I'm sceptical of structural changes caused by the fact that pandemics happen; rather I think people will get vaccinated and forget all about it. As it happens mRNA may be flexible enough to minimise the effects of the next pandemic. Irrespective, I don't see anyone investing in pandemic-proof lift infrastructure. The concept makes no sense, or we'd all be out there using only chair lifts today.

The places I ride, you can't even get into the countries and I don't expect that'll change until you can prove you're vaccinated. At that point, all this other stuff - the difference in risk between a 5* hotel and self catering - is no longer relevant. Hence assuming businesses survive the down-turn, then I don't see the market affected much going forward.

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The pandemic will result in many changes to the society and the way we work and leisure choices. That will have a knock on effect on skiing.

That, will change skiing a lot more than any short term modification directly from the pandemic.

In short, I think skiers will entirely forget there's a pandemic 2 years on. Resorts will be silly to change base on the special circumstance of this year.

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After all it is free

Would be a shame if the chalet model were to disappear. Self catering is fine for short trips, families with children or large groups but not everyone wants to cook on holiday, or indeed eat out every night. Hotels can be a bit too formal if you are in a couple. As well as meeting and skiing with new people chalet holidays still off ‘social’ skiing and other guided packages in some countries and it would be a shame to lose that.

Personally I like ski holidays to be more than just ‘skiing’. Hopefully affordable chalet holidays will survive although it may be their target demographic of retired Baby boomers and Gen x that decides not to return to skiing, in the biggest numbers, post COVID?

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How might the pandemic change skiing in the long term??

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