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Half term flight - Storm Dennis

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Anyone else due to fly out this weekend for the great British half term migration to the Alps? We are due to go on the 7am Easyjet flight from Gatwick to Grenoble on Sunday but starting to worry that the storm may cancel flights. This is our first DIY holiday as we didn’t want to take our son out of school and couldn’t find packages with TO affordable enough but afraid this might come back to bite us in the backside. Thinking if flight is cancelled Easyjet won’t sort anything and we will lose the whole holiday. Hopefully I am worrying over nothing as a quick x-wind calculation for Gatwick for both sat-sun shouldn’t be anywhere near as bad as last weekend.


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Thu 13-02-20 19:51; edited 1 time in total
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We're due to fly out of Birmingham to Chambery with Flybe early Sunday morning. Fingers crossed and all that. Some forecasts suggest it won't be quite as bad as last weekend, but I suppose we will just have to wait and see.
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@klwood, if the flight is cancelled you should be able to re-book onto a later flight. So you might lose a bit of the holiday, but not all of it (the same as if you had gone with a TO). One other thing to consider: a delayed or cancelled flight might well affect your transfer to resort. As soon as you know you'll be delayed, inform your transfer company or car hire company, and they may be able to change your booking. If there are any extra costs incurred, it'll probably be a matter of claiming from your travel insurance, so keep any receipts.

Hopefully though none of the above will happen. Have a good time Very Happy
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So in reality-half term flights are in my experience full, and that isn’t just on the weekends but even into Monday at least.

You may get the odd seat free but certainly not enough for a full plane load?

Does anybody know what happens in reality should it be cancelled?
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NickyJ wrote:
So in reality-half term flights are in my experience full, and that isn’t just on the weekends but even into Monday at least.

You may get the odd seat free but certainly not enough for a full plane load?

Does anybody know what happens in reality should it be cancelled?


Depends how you've booked it. If it's Ryanair or Easyjet, if they cancel it you get a little bit of compo and that's it, you're on your own.
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Mac Pie wrote:
NickyJ wrote:
So in reality-half term flights are in my experience full, and that isn’t just on the weekends but even into Monday at least.

You may get the odd seat free but certainly not enough for a full plane load?

Does anybody know what happens in reality should it be cancelled?


Depends how you've booked it. If it's Ryanair or Easyjet, if they cancel it you get a little bit of compo and that's it, you're on your own.


So, do they not offer you seats later in week?

Depending on how you have booked the cost of your flights when you booked vs remaining seats available is often very different.

Thankfully my halfterm flights are the Saturday morning so by pure luck we should hopefully get out before any real issues hit, but I would like to understand what can be done?

I have travel insurance but like OP we are DIYing
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At the moment the strong winds from storm Dennis aren't due to hit the London are till around lunch time, so morning flights should be fine.
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No, they won't (automatically) re-book you onto another flight. You can either get a refund or contact them to see if you can be re-booked. But, as you say, there ain't any space on the following flights either. If the flight is cancelled because of the storm, most airlines will be affected, there simply won't be enough space for re-booking passengers.

I expect the worst that will happen is that flights are badly delayed, the charter flights and the low-cost airlines don't really have any good reason for cancelling.
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You should be ok the winds are not forecast to be as strong as last weekend. Last year we went on holiday during the summer (flying with BA) on Saturday the 10th August you might remember that was the weekend on the unprecedented low pressure system and winds were as forecast this weekend. We took off on schedule pilot said it would be a little bumpy on the way up which it was until few thousand feet then it was calm as you can hope for. As far as I could tell Gatwick was running a normal service. I thnk last weekend was a little different.
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NickyJ as Mac Pie has said if you have booked with Easyjet or similar they can offer another flight or refund - there are not many free seats on flights now a days and even less so at half term so I wouldn't expect to travel and would have to claim the holiday expenses on my insurance if the flights were to be cancelled.

I don't mind delays and hopefully that is all that will happen, I don't normally worry so much but I am worrying about everything for this trip as it is our first time moving away from TOs and going DIY and have a big fear it will all go wrong.
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Forecast showing 47mph crosswind for the 12:50 Saturday EZY flight from Bristol to GVA... and much the same through to Monday evening
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@klwood, Any reason why you cant drive if it does all got belly up?
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Or have a look at train prices?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
At what MPH winds will they start cancelling or delaying ?

We are in similar position. First time DIY

EasyJet Manchester to Innsbruck on sat morning. Taxi booked for other end.
Deposit paid on hotel in La Villa.

If they cancel , zero other flights to INN

Guess would end up somewhere but would be a bit of a disaster and lose a few days.
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Play this, in between sleeping on the Heathrow floor for a couple days and dodging the Kung Flu virus.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@caughtanedge 47mph is gust speed quick look and calculation x-wind for Bristol at that time is 28kt so in theory should be okay for takeoff

@Mother hacker unfortunately driving is not an option for us

@dazzle109 looked at trains, think Eurostar is fully booked for Sunday as can’t see any. Plus I wouldn’t want to book anything until we knew for sure flights were actually cancelled but then we would be trying when loads of other people are scrambling to do the same thing

@sheffskibod the answer is it depends, usually on the level cross winds and sheer winds. Cross wind limits depend on the aircraft type and the length/slope/condition of the runway. Typically you can have a higher x-wind for take off than when landing. Quick look at Manchester for Saturday morning as long as the forecast is close to accurate then you shouldn’t have any problem for wind to takeoff.

The fast for our flight on Sunday should be under the limit as well, the issue would be if they have to cancel a load of landings Saturday will easyJet have a plane for us Sunday morning, or if the wind turns out to be much stronger than facts we will be in trouble
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A friend of a friend who is flying on Saturday with EasyJet has been told her flight has been cancelled, due to leave at 12.30 I think it was.

We are booked to fly out on Sunday, is the weather meant to be better by then?
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sheffskibod wrote:
At what MPH winds will they start cancelling or delaying ?

.


One of the factors will be the plane type. Typical limits for the Airbus A319/320/321 are:

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Our flight to Iceland a couple of weeks ago was cancelled for weather.
I asked a couple of pilot friends what the limits were. The taf was showing gusts to 52kts and a 738 has a limit of 50kts apparently (he wasn't sure if that was Boeing's limit or Ryanair)
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Hmm I’m keeping fingers crossed for an early Sunday flight to Barcelona....at least there are lots of flights to Barcelona! Any issues on the access to Bristol from the south west?
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Quote:

if they cancel it you get a little bit of compo and that's it, you're on your own


Not really. (Edit) - I think compensation is limited if they can claim "circumstances beyond control"? However,

We were in Scotland when the Eastbeast hit, missed our Easy return flight by 2h15 (i.e. if it had hit later, we'd have got away). Immediate options were full refunds or booking onto other flights. Obvs no other flights avail at that point ...

1. we got accom and meals for the 4 days we couldn't get out.
2. I think we got some compensation as well.
3. By the Friday, they were so backed up that they thought the following Thursday might be a reasonable best guess. ...

So ... most importantly, if they cannot reasonably expect to get you to your destination within 48 hours, you may, at your choice, elect to fly with another operator. We ended up on £1,300 "business" flights which Easy covered in full. You can make that choice there and then (the 48 hours thing is the critical issue). We waited until we'd had enough and had found those seats.

Note also, brother in law due LGW-MXP Sat afternoon and had an email from EJ asking if he wanted to switch flights or cancel today aas they can't guarantee the service. He's holding on and he can always drive Friday-Sat if required. As no suitable EJ flights available of course.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 13-02-20 19:54; edited 1 time in total
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@hodders00 I can’t see EJ have officially cancelled flights for sat yet. They have cancelled a few to Iceland for tomorrow but the fcst for Iceland is 43kt gusting to 70kt Shocked What time are you meant to be flying and where from?
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I am wondering whether they have been given the option of cancelling or moving the flight to another day rather than actually cancelling.

I am flying from Gatwick to Geneva on Sunday, I am hoping that we won’t have a problem but I have had a look at ferries just in case, not ideal but I’d rather that than lose a couple of days holiday.
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Hodders00 wrote:
A friend of a friend who is flying on Saturday with EasyJet has been told her flight has been cancelled, due to leave at 12.30 I think it was.

We are booked to fly out on Sunday, is the weather meant to be better by then?


Is my understanding correct that if the cancellation is outside 48hrs they reduce their liability? Presume the cancellation was this morning?
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@NickyJ, I don't think they've actually cancelled anything yet, but I suspect that (not unreasonably) they are trying to reduce their exposure, in that, if enough people elect to fly later (where seats are available and they are sure of operating) then that's less to deal with if they do have to cancel the flight.
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@under a new name, @Hodders00, stated that theirs EasyJet HAD cancelled their friends flight.
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@NickyJ, but now they are wondering if they'd received the message properly ... see post above.
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under a new name wrote:
@NickyJ, but now they are wondering if they'd received the message properly ... see post above.


Ah, thanks hadn’t appreciated that.
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None of the BA or Easy LGW flights are showing any problems for Saturday _at present_.

Based on the Ciara situation, cancellations peaked at 15.00 on the previous day, but were more LHR and LCY focused. The latter because of safety issues flying there at all, and the former because the weather conditions reduced the number of slots, so BA proactively cancelled short haul to protect long haul landing slots.

Worth keeping an eye on this thread (sorry to direct traffic to another forum, but it is somewhat more specialised for this stuff!)

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/british-airways-executive-club/2008581-storm-warning-saturday-15th-feb.html
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I'm supposedly on the 08:10 Exeter to Chambery, which is a TUI B738. Exeter forecast TAF is currently showing 17kts gusting 34kts from the southwest, so off RWY 26 we should be Ok.

https://en.allmetsat.com/wind/united-kingdom-ireland.php?city=exeter-eng

Things get a bit dicey from most southern airports after about 3PM Saturday till Sunday 9AM Sunday with gusts up to 52kts.

The other end (Chambery) looks calm, which hopefully doesn't mean fog : https://en.allmetsat.com/wind/france.php?city=chambery-aix-les-bains-fr

However, I reckon the Exeter to Chambery bit is going to be a lot quicker than the Chambery to resort bit Crying or Very sad Just hope to be there before kick-off in the big televised game - Yeovil vs Chesterfield 18:20CET on BT Sport Very Happy
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The airport forecasts are currently only valid until 6 in the morning, with the exception of Heathrow and Gatwick which look OK from a wind point of view until 1200.

However there is a significant chance of early fog at Chambery, where it would cause bother. Not so much at Lyon and Grenoble.
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@Judwin, Ah, many a happy hour doing circuits into Yeovil. I can see the TV game being cancelled myself, especially with the run of form at the moment. No real incentive to get it on.
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Perhaps the odd problem at Leeds and Edinburgh until 1200 tomorrow, otherwise should be OK. Crosswinds at LHR and LGW building in the afternoon to potentially disruptive levels. Standby the app on case they start culling. But Given the GVA flights tomorrow will be some of the highest yielding short haul flights of the year I would hope other flights may go first!
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Flooded roads look like a potential issue on Sunday.
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@chocksaway, Any thoughts on Liverpool airport for flights? I know you gave an impressive breakdown last week for the potential effect on various airports, but Liverpool wasn't one that was mentioned, so I was wondering f you knew if it was prone to certain issues?

Cheers, PPF
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Current aerodrome forecast for Liverpool is showing some possibly significant crosswinds building on Saturday morning. The runway orientation at Liverpool is east-west, and the wind is forecast to be coming from just west of south, so most of the wind's strength will be reflected in crosswinds. Could get dicey towards lunchtime. The data I have only goes as far as noon on Saturday. Runways will be wet - this will reduce the operating limits for landing.

The GFS UK models are showing the wind strengthening through Saturday afternoon, and potentially causing issues through to lunchtime on Sunday. Some disruption would appear to be inevitable; let's hope it's kept to a minimum.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 14-02-20 17:21; edited 1 time in total
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@moosepig, Hope so, we've got a lunchtime flight rolling eyes
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Hmm! I just hope as an early flight from Bristol at 7:15 am my Sunday flight only potentially needing to take off is less of a problem than having to land...
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Quote:

Things get a bit dicey from most southern airports after about 3PM Saturday till Sunday 9AM Sunday with gusts up to 52kts.


Thanks for the input everyone.

We're on 14:45 LGW - GVA tomorrow. Fingers crossed things stay good to 3pm!
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@porkpiefox, clearly I am remiss in missing Liverpool! It will be the same as most UK airports, the crosswind will be over limits for most UK airports for short periods of time as showers blow through. So some delays are inevitable after lunch. Delays are most likely at Leeds, luckily it's not that busy so they can catch up. First prize goes to Stansted, it's runway is almost into wind tomorrow.

Just seen BA have started culling flights in the afternoon from LHR, including a GVA. Grrrrr
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