So. Pour a cool drink, slip on some shades and shimmy in the sunshine because it‘s time to think about snow.
But first...
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.
Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.
nozawaonsen wrote:
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.
And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).
And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats).
Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.
Some thoughts on ENSO to follow...
Good to see you all again!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Yes indeed! We were just chatting last night about the upcoming season over a post-climb beer. A decent amount of snowfall without a persistent weak layer was the wish. It's absolutely baking – is it nearly winter yet?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Good to see you again. Looking forward to your thoughts this coming season.
@nozawaonsen, Good to see you again. Looking forward to your thoughts this coming season.
+1
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
-1 here last night on the mountain. (I'm sure that doesn't mean anything )!
After all it is free
After all it is free
Glad to see I'm not the only mad man who's thoughts turn to snow even deep into the heat.
Best of luck to all snow heads and fellow powder chasers this coming year
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Dusting of snow above 2500m. Fresh snow in the summer always looks beautiful.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Certainly been quite a drop in temperatures over last couple of days in Austria.
Currently NOAA has an El Niño watch in place for autumn.
“Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance
for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19”
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
There was some snow on the Scottish mountains for the summer solstice
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And we're off on the great seasonal marathon of fore-casting, hope-casting, speculation, weather lore, old farmers tales and so on...
I hope this thread is as short as the 17/18 one was!
This morning I was chatting to a Kiwi friend from near Timaru on the South Island. She told me they'd had their first frost of the winter on Saturday night. If you think of our winter equivalent date I really hope the NH winter doesn't start like that
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, Thank you again for starting the next instalment of the Weather Outlook Thread.
Another year.... another season of seasonal forecasting for the winter and hoping to actually post regularly....
The various ENSO models forecast ENSO to be Borderline El Nino, which correlates roughly with -AO and -NAO.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Its not every summer that Glasgow is forecast to be 4 degrees warmer than London but it can happen if the source air flow is coming from the north east.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44635107
Currently 5c warmer in Aviemore than here in North Yorkshire.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Get your skis out.
Winter is on it's way. Pow, pow, pow etc.
First snow depth map of the season.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Nah, it's still the tail end of last season for me.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Scandinavia looking bad at the moment (July 2018). A couple of resorts have closed early for the Summer, this week.
European Alps glaciers starting to wilt in the heatwave, but generally doing okay.
North America glaciers / snowfields also wilting in the heat, especially Western Canada.
Southern Hemisphere is rocking in New Zealand. Australia so-so. Lesotho, Africa, is open with a couple of trails on manmade.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Was up on the Dachstein glacier (hiking not skiing) at weekend. Looked like plenty of snow for start of July.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Was up on the Dachstein glacier (hiking not skiing) at weekend. Looked like plenty of snow for start of July.
Tangent: What makes the most difference to a glacier, snowy winter, or a cool summer?
I instinctively feel this winter will have been good for glacier depths, but is the key factor the snow loss over the summer?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Drammeister, it’s the mass balance that you need to look at. So how much winter growth compares to summer loss. The trend not surprisingly has been towards a negative mass balance given the generally warmer weather in summers. Last winter would I imagine have offset this, but perhaps not against the overall trend. An interesting stat (which you find at the bar on top of the Dachstein) is that it takes roughly 80cm of snow to create an additional 1cm of glacier.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The Glacier Blanc in the Ecrins national parc didn't see exceptional accumulations of snow this winter:-
Quote:
l'enneigement hivernal que l'on a connu cette année ne se traduit pas par des accumulations exceptionnelles à haute altitude.
and you can see the marks on this rock
It has been very warm this year in France so I wouldn't hold out much hope for the glaciers
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Interesting stuff @davidof.
Some areas seem to have done better than others.
I understand the Val d'Isere glacier opened this year - first time for years.
It has been warm recently here in La Plagne, but no more than usual according to locals.
And now exciting thunder storm has started with hail.
Never a dull moment in the alps
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Jonpim wrote:
Interesting stuff @davidof.
Some areas seem to have done better than others.
I understand the Val d'Isere glacier opened this year - first time for years.
It has been warm recently here in La Plagne, but no more than usual according to locals.
And now exciting thunder storm has started with hail.
Never a dull moment in the alps
They opened on the Bellevarde which they've not done before but could have done in the past as there is often snow at that altitude in June. The glacier is open every year. Not so long ago la Plagne had summer skiing.
You ate right that conditions are variable though.
Vienna had heaviest rainfall in four years last week.
Still very warm, but not as warm as London has been.
Ischgl certainly has more snow patches up top than it did this time last year.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Anecdotally there are quite a few more snow patches around the Northern Chablais area at approx. 2000m (near Thollon/Bernex etc) compared to this time last year, but they have been melting quickly over the last few weeks of warm weather. Lowest snow patches last week could be seen around 1800m altitude in places.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Drammeister, it’s the mass balance that you need to look at. So how much winter growth compares to summer loss. The trend not surprisingly has been towards a negative mass balance given the generally warmer weather in summers. Last winter would I imagine have offset this, but perhaps not against the overall trend. An interesting stat (which you find at the bar on top of the Dachstein) is that it takes roughly 80cm of snow to create an additional 1cm of glacier.
@davidof, Lovely pic. I skied down that way in April. Fantastic route - but rather expensive as I am based in Täsch, jut north of Zermatt. So you have to get a taxi back round to Cervinia. Now if they ever build that link between the Cervinia and Monte Rosa resorts ....
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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