 Poster: A snowHead
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Well I’ve never seen or felt Feb temps in the Valais like this. I’ve looked again at the average and historical records. This is weird. Like Easter is usually...not Feb. Feb is supposed to be cold - even when sunny, cold. It isn’t. Chris Turney’s thesis - in Ice Mud and Blood - is that feedback mechanisms are evident in the geological record - for example glaciers in melting concentrate the atmospheric dust on the surface of the ice, making the surface dark, and increasing the rate of melting, which then makes the surface darker and so on....his book worried the hell out of me when I read it years ago - and I’m a careful researcher who doesn’t scare easily. I am seeing accelerating change all around the high mountains in the Alps. So....very pleasant relaxing in all this heat. And for me...deeply worrying.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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After more than two months of consistently cold temperatures, and regular heavy snowfalls, we are 5 days into above average temperatures during the day (last Tuesday was the first day of sunshine and it didn’t warm up till Wednesday/Thursday) But not at night. It’s been well below freezing when I have started work on each of the past three mornings at 983m. -5 today. What evidence would you present to show it’s ‘weird’
It’s not ideal if you are heading over in the next two weeks and hoping for fresh snow and powder, however on the other hand I see no reason for your ‘deep worries’. The mountains are white and there is a deep snowpack across the majority of the alps.
I simply won’t agree that two weeks af unseasonably warm weather provides any evidence whatsoever of a wider warming trend. I am not a climate change denier but the premise to your post doesn’t stand up to any examination of facts
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I’m concerned too. As nelbert says there are really quite cold nights (via lattea) so the contrast is very stark. Coincidentally I was chatting to my husband in the ski lift earlier and I suggested in future, skiing is looked on as one of those weird things people did “in olden days”
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@Nelbert75, hmmm...facts.
Average temp charts with clear upward tilt.
North faces I used to climb 20 years ago which were ice and snow in the summer and are now just loose rock.
Thousands of summer snow patches in the Alps which are now no longer there.
The aletsch glacier retreating significantly. Plaine Morte black with surface dust and debris - starkly contrasting with photos from 30 years ago.
Yep there’s snow in our garden. And it’s 12 degrees outside. None of my climbing notebooks have 12 Deg in Feb at 1200 m here.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@valais2, all the things you say are true and the scientific consensus is that they are the result of global warming. However one warm spell in February is not evidence for anything very much at all. The Austrian alps has just had some of the heaviest snowfall in decades that is not evidence for anything very much either beyond the fact that weather patterns are unpredictable.
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Very much agree that global warming is very concerning.
Disagree that the current temperatures are scary, exceptional or that (on their own) they can be attributed to climate change.
But @valais2, you say you've been looking at the historical records. Can you give us some facts to illustrate whether the current conditions are exceptional or not?
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I think the Les Arcs radio station commented this morning that the current temperatures are either a 20 year or 30 year high (I can't remember which, sorry). While I'm naturally concerned to see more snow to keep the season going, a week of warm temperatures like this on its own doesn't otherwise concern me; if they had said 50 years (the age of the resort) I might be more concerned. These things happen - we had very cold temperatures in January.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Not a lot you can do when "climate change" is viewed as a partisan political issue in the US rather than scientific fact and an economic lever in e.g. China and India.
And I'm pretty sure that in emboldened Brexiteer Britain the Snoop Moggs of this world can sell the plebs on an idea that all this eco nonsense is holding us back from our glory days of dark satanic mills and child labour etc.
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@Dave of the Marmottes, I can hear distant strains of Dvorak as he does it?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Global warming is smashing the European Alps.
Just in the past ~40 years alone, we see:
Drying = Average snowfall down 20-30%.
Warming 1 = Skiable allyear glaciers have melted away and declined -80%.
Warming 2 = Ever more rain to higher levels in peak-winter of Dec and Jan.
Shortening = Seasons 10-20% shorter (would be even shorter, without snowguns).
Just look at Chamonix. The big glacier tumbled into town just a few decades ago. Now, it is a shriveled puddle of black mush. The valley today is rarely white throughout the season.
Enjoy skiing while you can.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Record snowfall this season. Sunny week this week with daytime temperatures just above freezing, around +5, cold nights. Scared? Of what?
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| Nelbert75 wrote: |
After more than two months of consistently cold temperatures, and regular heavy snowfalls, we are 5 days into above average temperatures during the day (last Tuesday was the first day of sunshine and it didn’t warm up till Wednesday/Thursday) But not at night. It’s been well below freezing when I have started work on each of the past three mornings at 983m. -5 today. What evidence would you present to show it’s ‘weird’
It’s not ideal if you are heading over in the next two weeks and hoping for fresh snow and powder, however on the other hand I see no reason for your ‘deep worries’. The mountains are white and there is a deep snowpack across the majority of the alps.
I simply won’t agree that two weeks af unseasonably warm weather provides any evidence whatsoever of a wider warming trend. I am not a climate change denier but the premise to your post doesn’t stand up to any examination of facts |
The facts are it is extremely warm. For the area the OP is talking about it's recorded officially at 4° this morning and over in the Anniviers it is 6° at 2200m. That's higher than forecast (5° at 2000m) and lower than measured yesterday (7° at 2000m).
As of 06h30 this morning only three Swiss automatic stations recorded anything below -5° and two of those were at nearly 3000m. Only Davos on the automatic station and the observed measure are cold at -9° or so.
As a whole, the entire country of Switzerland is warm right now.
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You know it makes sense.
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snowflake generation
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ise - precisely.
If you tramp around Europe or the World chasing snow then it give a very different impression (who cares about climate change) to people who ski the same locations (grief it’s changing).
In my OP I talked about Chris Turney’s work. What I am genuinely scared about is not the trend so far (which is worrying enough) but the mechanisms which might result in accelerating or runaway changes.
And my post and comments are only vaguely skiing related - I climb and mountain-bike so can switch sports easily enough. Yes we had an amazing time last March in the snow-which-just-kept-coming...but what’s to come? If the North Atlantic circulation changes, it might become snowier in the winter in the Alps, Scotland might be viable again. But it’s what is happening to the biosphere as a whole which is looking grim...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Meanwhile in NZ, in the middle of Summer, where it will be 36 degrees tomorrow, almost a metre of snow down to 1200m is forecast at the weekend.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It was -9 at the train station this morning. Pretty standard temperature for a clear early morning in February. Altitude 520m.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@valais2, +1.
We are seeing more and more extreme weather events (eg Austrian January heavy snowfalls were 100-150 year events) which are consistent with climate change projections. There have already been scientific papers linking previous extreme weather events of the past 5-10 years to climate change. It is concerning, as are the biosphere issues.
I work in a related area and it scares the sh*t out of me. Lots of the younger generations increasingly motivated to do something about it, though, which gives me some optimism. But there’s a lot of sunk investments and vested interests which will need to be negotiated before we start seeing the change we need.
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| Inboard wrote: |
@valais2, +1.
(eg Austrian January heavy snowfalls were 100-150 year events)
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which WAS the heaviest snowfall in 100 years. So about Par for course.
unlimited funding to peddle the myths & lies. As well as excuses to apply taxes, levys & surcharges.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Mr.Egg, where do you dream up the tosh you post?
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Climate change is a reality, and yes it may lead to the loss of skiing at some point in the future, but if we reach that point then perhaps the loss of skiing will be the least of our worries.
I'm not sure that pointing to the loss of glaciers as an indicator to loss of skiing though, the glaciers have been retreating for many years, originally since the last major ice age, and although this stopped and may have even reversed in more recent years, (such as the little ice age), the trend has been for them to retreat, albeit they are doing so with increasing speed since the 80's.
However glacier retreat in itself is not an indicator of lack of snow, as a lot of resorts do not have a glacier anyway, yet they still get plenty of snow each year to ski on.
I've got kind of mixed feelings about this, I mean, yes I love skiing, and I'll be disappointed if I'm not able to do it in the future, but the reality is, is that if the world warms that much, then we will have a lot more issues than skiing to worry about, including flooding, crop failure, killing off of parts of the foodchain in the sea, more extreme weather events, etc.
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| Hurtle wrote: |
| @Mr.Egg, where do you dream up the tosh you post? |
we have data on weather for about 200 years out 4.5billion. a miniscure of a %
The Sun & Solar system plays a much bigger part on our weather & cycles than anything we are doing.
These global warming - oops, that got debunked - These Climate Change charlatans are getting money for selling old rope.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Mr.Egg, I suggest you take a little visit to see where the glacier was only 40 years ago in Chamonix, or look at any old IGN map and see glaciers on maps that are no longer there at all!
For sure we've been getting huge snowfalls as per last year, but would seem that everything now points to extremes.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
@Mr.Egg, I suggest you take a little visit to see where the glacier was only 40 years ago in Chamonix, or look at any old IGN map and see glaciers on maps that are no longer there at all!
For sure we've been getting huge snowfalls as per last year, but would seem that everything now points to extremes. |
how about 400,000 years ago & 4 billion years ago?
your talking about a microcosm of time
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I think we may be a bit quick to cry Doom...
There is a really interesting exhibition of photos in the Saas Fee tourist office (well there was in November, I have not been there since).
They collated and displayed photos of the glacier from the town, and they had photos going right back to the very first days of photography in the mid 19th Century.
Over that time the Glacier advanced, retreated , advanced again and is now about 2/3rds of its previous maximum retreat (based on what I saw).
The early part of the 20th Century was its maximum retreat, it then advanced a lot until about the 1970's.
It really did make me think a lot, and made me question what is its "natural" state?
The answer...I don't know!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| rungsp wrote: |
| I think we may be a bit quick to cry Doom... |
This is true. However I also think that anyone who disputes climate change is a fool.
In response to Mr Egg's comment on 'global warming', didn't realise this had been dispproved? As I understand it's one part of climate change, but the latter has been adopted as a clearer description that properly encompasses the issues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
Of course anyone that watches Always Sunny will know that sometimes science looks like a b***h
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it's you're, actually
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You know it makes sense.
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@rungsp, That sounds interesting. It's not online anywhere is it ?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
we have data on weather for about 200 years
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LOL. I've got a tinfoil hat for you mate you can have cheap. Never been worn. It will match your bum-padding.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Mr.Egg wrote: |
..............how about 400,000 years ago & 4 billion years ago?
your talking about a microcosm of time............ |
Exactly and the way we are going you and your type will not see the human race get through another 5,000 years let alone 400k
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| Mr.Egg wrote: |
..............how about 400,000 years ago & 4 billion years ago?
your talking about a microcosm of time............ |
Exactly and the way we are going you and your type will not see the human race get through another 5,000 years let alone 400k |
why would I care. Im not going to live to 5000 years old
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Some absolute records broken in France over the last days but it is all in the trend of warmer winters. Great in the short term if you are a high altitude ski area (more precipitation) but in the long term, well in the long term, we're all dead.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Mr.Egg wrote: |
| Weathercam wrote: |
| Mr.Egg wrote: |
..............how about 400,000 years ago & 4 billion years ago?
your talking about a microcosm of time............ |
Exactly and the way we are going you and your type will not see the human race get through another 5,000 years let alone 400k |
why would I care. Im not going to live to 5000 years old |
We need to care as we are merely guardians of the planet for a short time - it concerns me that my son and his generation may have to look at the shambles we have left them and determine that its already to late to avert a disaster.
And you can forget any notions that we wealthy western Europeans will be immune from any fallout - when the water runs out and the crops fail in Africa and Asia, where do you think people will head for water and food?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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To me the bigger challenge when it comes to climate change is the effects on weather events and extremes and with growing populations, we need to build for resiliency. In Europe, you traditionally have a culture with better construction standards than you do in places like the US where a hurricane can decimate wood housing. So, what is causing the change? I personally can't tell you for sure but know that building for resilience and mitigation is critical. Come live here during hurricane season and you'll understand a bit more.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Mr.Egg, how far above sea level do you live? If it's at the level of (for example) London or New York or Amsterdam then you may relatively soon find your lack of care was unfounded.
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| Mr.Egg wrote: |
| Weathercam wrote: |
| Mr.Egg wrote: |
..............how about 400,000 years ago & 4 billion years ago?
your talking about a microcosm of time............ |
Exactly and the way we are going you and your type will not see the human race get through another 5,000 years let alone 400k |
why would I care. Im not going to live to 5000 years old |
Well I would have put money on that response, you selfish _ _ _ _ 
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| GreenDay wrote: |
We need to care as we are merely guardians of the planet for a short time - it concerns me that my son and his generation may have to look at the shambles we have left them and determine that its already to late to avert a disaster. |
The climate is like the Titanic, by the time you spot the iceberg it is already too late.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html
as for European skiing, you've got about a decade left to enjoy it.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here's a handy illustration of the current rate of change in the context of the last 22,000 years
https://xkcd.com/1732/
While there have certainly been humans around for much longer, anything we'd recognise as agriculture or civilization occurred within this period. Both the current temperature and rate of increase are unprecedented in this period.
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@brokenbetty, excellent illustration.
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