 Poster: A snowHead
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I linked to snow-forecast.com from another thread re their updated maps and I just wondered how accurate this was? I am assuming (read hoping!) its pretty accurate but anyone who can confirm or otherwise would be much appreciated.
Many thanks.
Hannah
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Quel Question! It's a weather forcast, lots of variables, never bet your house on them, be pleasantly surprised when it is what you wish for. I guess if they were 100% spot on there would be no weather men, they'd bet on the weather then retire. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hannah, it had a reputation for over-estimating the depth of snow that might fall.
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Thanks guys - Rob, is there another website you would recommend that is more accurate?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Although Rob of late they've under estimated for the resorts I've been keeping my eye on. That includes the last dump around the17th and the current one.
I use them as a trend guide for the six day outlook and start getting interested if predicted snow comes into the three day range. Then it's fingers crossed time.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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they've under estimated for the resorts I've been keeping my eye on.
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that's also been my experience. I find they are pretty accurate about the kind of weather disturbance on the way, and about trends, but because they are using computers and global models the kind of very local variations which make such a difference in the Alps (ie not just altitude, which they take into account) can only be dealt with by a human forecaster looking at a very small area. But I find that if I look at forecasts for surrounding resorts, and take a sort of broad average, they're pretty good. And right now it's bucketing down - only problem is that freezing levels are a bit up and down and some places are being bucketed on with rain rather than snow. There are some good keen amateur meteorologists on skipass.com, if you can read French. There's a fair bit of nonsense and abuse mixed up with the forecasting there but it's quite entertaining, if you are in the mood.
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In my experience they are absolutely useless - I still check it several times a day though!
Up until Wednesday evening of last week they were predicting cloud and snow in Arabba for the next 4 days - I arrived on the Thursday and had four days of clear blue skies!
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To be fair to them I have looked at wetterzentrale, weather-online, metcheck in fact pretty much all of 'em and come to the conclusion that predicting weather for mountainous areas with any accuracy is almost impossible
and I look at all of them 3 times a day too
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I find them pretty reliable to give you an idea of what's happenning
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as with any forecasts, anything beyond 48 hours is iffy, and in changeable times, when a small variation in the observations can make a big difference to the forecast, only the next day's forecast is likely to be reliable. From local observation the weather both sides of a small mountain, in the same ski area, can be very different, particularly when it comes to wind and visibility. Same thing applies to forecasting in the UK - I sail on the south coast, and forecasts are very often inaccurate as to strength of wind and the precise timing of the passage of fronts etc. But if you read them intelligently and try to understand the charts, not just read the three line summary, you can see where the weather is coming from, and be aware of a range of potential different evolutions. Trouble is, I can't "read" the Alps weather in the same way, the continental systems are more complex than the predictable march of depressions across the Atlantic. The truth, which we all find very hard to accept, is that nobody can tell us whether we are likely to have good conditions for our ski hols...  But it's fun to try. The best thing is to believe the forecasts you like the look of, rubbish the rest of them and keep your fingers crossed.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I have found them not that reliable but i too visit the site often enough. I would never thou become a member and pay to see the 7 day forecast as the weather in the alps changes so much day to day
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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we looked on the site prior to going to Montgenevre last week, and it gave no snow for the entire week. Two days into our hols, clouds were forming and a light dusting ensued. Next morning, almost white out at resort level, and heaps of snow and fog at the upper levels. Would rather trust a rottweiler with my 5yr old than this site again. Incidentally, would not reccommend going to Crystal chalet "L'ours Blanc". Staff were disinterested to the point of being ignorant, the food was not great ( the chef tried but failed miserably), and there was no bar or tv. You would have thought that with the olympics being on that one of them would have the notion of bringing a bit of that atmosphere to the chalet.......... 
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I looked at the forecast for Serre Chevalier over the last week, fairly accurate I'd say. Snow and more snow. I don't know why it said none for Montgenevre.
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You know it makes sense.
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there's plenty there now, pity we're back in Wales planning an end of season blast.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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planning an end of season blast
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Hee hee, I've been planning the EOSB too 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Two days into our hols, clouds were forming and a light dusting ensued. Next morning, almost white out at resort level, and heaps of snow and fog at the upper levels.
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any weather forecast can only be relied upon for next 24 - 48 hours depending on the kind of conditions. you need to keep looking at the forecast, and the charts which explain it, to get a feel for the way events are developing. You can't expect to look at a forecast before leaving the UK then expect it to come true 3 or 4 days later. You need to look at the charts and forecasts every day. Or just wait and see. To get hold of more effective forecasting, by a person not a computer, and tailor made for your particular location, you have to pay a lot of money (e.g. if sailing round the UK you can be in touch with a Met Office forecaster who will look at the little bit of sea you are in - I expect you can pay money to meteo france and get the same kind of service). But it doesn't change the weather......
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
| ...You can't expect to look at a forecast before leaving the UK then expect it to come true 3 or 4 days later. ...... |
I agree but it begs the question...'why do they bother?'. If, as we suspect, the mountain weather is unpredictable, what value has any forecast for more than 48 hours hence??
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I find snow-forecast very useful, I've the full membership and it's generally quite right about the weather and the general trend.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I have used snow-forecast for a few years and found that they are best as a trend indicator. How far you look ahead on it also depends on where you are, in New Zealand the weather is too volatile to look more than a couple of days ahead, while in North America you can look a few more days out. I haven't found the amounts or temperatures accurate but do indicate the trends fairly well
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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We use them for a laugh - usually very inaccurate. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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They've certainly been rubbbish this week - they keep telling us it's snowing when we're all out there skiing in bright snshine.
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...You can't expect to look at a forecast before leaving the UK then expect it to come true 3 or 4 days later. ......
I agree but it begs the question...'why do they bother?'. If, as we suspect, the mountain weather is unpredictable, what value has any forecast for more than 48 hours hence??
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What I meant was that you need to keep an eye on the trend, day by day, and try to understand a little of the reason why the prospects may be changing. Then it is worth bothering - and very interesting. Many forecasts (e.g. the Chamonix met site) give a "percentage reliability" figure - but that probably needs the intervention of a human forecaster, which snow-forecast can hardly be expected do for the entire globe, and for nothing.
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brian
brian
Guest
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian,
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I have too much time on my hands
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far far too much time
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I have been watching and using snow-forecast.com since just before the season started. It has up to now been the most accurate of any others I have found. But then anything is more accurate than English TV forecasts!!!!
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