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2015/16 Avy conditions - General Discussion

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looking back it seems we have similar conditions to last year. Looking at the Chamonix forecast it's suggesting a level 1 or 2 depending on altitude.

Whats the general take for conditions in the Chamonix area ?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Was wondering what implications the start to the season thus far would have for snowpack, would welcome any informed opinions alright?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Was extensive surface hoar above around 2500m in Tignes last week. Nice to ski on but potential weak layer once it gets buried. Didn't check for depth hoar but presumably that is possible with thin snowpack and clear nights
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@8611, what snowpack?
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@under a new name, Laughing
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@peanuthead, you must need depth for depth hoar surely?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Useful discussion at HAT. The current snowpack is transforming and is likely to form a weak and dangerous layer when there is significant snowfall on top if it.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Sorry, @rob@rar, I'm not being useful, am I?... Twisted Evil
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@rob@rar, cheers Smile
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@under a new name, Laughing Laughing

Had the same conversation my gf last night:

Her: this rain is probably gonna make a nasty avalanche layer below 1800m, right?
Me: Ha, yeah, luckily we don't have any snow below 1800m
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under a new name wrote:
@8611, what snowpack?


Good point!

@rob@rar not good news then
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
under a new name wrote:
Sorry, @rob@rar, I'm not being useful, am I?... Twisted Evil
Laughing
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Lots of snow in Western Canada right now.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Yes, but the avalanche conditions are actually pretty good here. So there's a ton of snow, but you can ride the steeps as the layers are set up pretty well.

Riding 20-40cms of fresh today on a 3.5m base. Every turn was a face shot.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just looking at some profiles taken on N. sector slopes at around 2500 meters and having made some pits of my own on similar slopes and I have the following observations (Swiss / French Alps)

Below 2100/2300 meters there is a thick rain crust in the snowpack with gobelets below that. If it snows the rain crust should provide some stability. Higher up the situation is more complicated. Again there is a thick layer of gobelets/facets/hoar then several crusts interleaved with weak layers. If it snows on top of this layer the likelyhood is that a skier triggered avalanche would break near the surface layers of the current snow pack. These are quite weak so skier triggered slides will be likely after fresh snow but probably localized to north sector slopes (risk 3). A surface slide could then take out the whole snowpack down to the weak ground layer. The weaknesses are very widespread on north sector slopes. If you are in resort at the moment and look up at a snow covered north facing slope then that whole slope where there is snow cover could go. So group spacing, route selection and stopping points will be critical in those conditions (remember the Foglietta avalanche last season that overwhelmed a guided group who thought they were in an island of safety or that at Ceillac).

Of course that all depends on getting 20cm+ of snow of fresh snow AND / OR snow transport due to wind. The risk will go to 3, maybe 4 for a day but the situation will be very dangerous on certain slopes. The weaknesses will hang around all season and show themselves every time there is fresh snow or wind.

Well all that is to be expected under the circumstances but worth remembering when it snows. Conditions should be much less dangerous below 2000-2300 meters and off those north sector slopes... with the risk of rocks under the snow. Worth checking things out now to see where you can ski in those circumstances.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like things are about to change...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Well I suspect Davidof's advice will hold true. It may be safer riding lower.

What if (as I suspect is the case with a lot of resorts below 2000m) there is no snow at all, ie this big Dump is literally the first snow on parts of the mountain?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Oh, you mean conditions somewhere else. France, even. Perhaps you could have saved me a click there, but then I know France, things are supposed to be annoying there.

Yeah, in BC we have the best avalanche conditions I can remember in 30 seasons. Beautiful snow, beautifully deposited. We're riding stuff I've not ridden at this time of year for a decade or more. There's some hoar frost appeared in the last few days so it'll likely get worse, but for now, it's time to rock and roll out there...
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"... & cohesionless snow has formed everywhere on slopes East to West through North (the top part of a compass). dangerous for nxt snowfall!"

From Henry, of Henry's Avalanche Talk fame. I'll be avoiding high north slopes and anything over 30deg for a few days after the mega dump.
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@philwig, I wish I was there Toofy Grin Chamonix next up for me...
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@AndAnotherThing.., I was at a friends last night in LG who is part of the team for your course week after next. He said if we do get the snow next week it will make for an interesting course.

He also said down this way should be safer as we have no real base unlike the Northern Alps which is now pretty well all faceted snow.

Though do need some serious snowfalls for atop on the glacier at LG at the moment.
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AndAnotherThing.. wrote:
Looking back it seems we have similar conditions to last year. Looking at the Chamonix forecast it's suggesting a level 1 or 2 depending on altitude.

Whats the general take for conditions in the Chamonix area ?


I would agree it's shaping up a lot like last year when there was a deal of nervousness when a thick layer went down on a layer of unstable snow. As it turned out then the new layer was mostly so thick and heavy it remained stable until the back end of the season.
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@Weathercam, 'interesting' is my take too. Hopefully not too much so...
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@AndAnotherThing.., you'll have to text me when you're going to do the ski tour part of the course which is usually up to the Galibier and I'll skin up with the dogs Cool
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@Weathercam, I'm going to be in Chamonix. Galibier is in your part of the world ?
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The Galibier sector as I call it (as there are various routes), is above the Lautaret up from La Grave which is where they tour on the Euro Avalanche Course.

It's my local hill Cool

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Weathercam wrote:
I'll skin up with the dogs Cool


my god, has it really come down to you using the dog's hides as climbing skins!
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@Weathercam, we photograph what we love.
The girl, the puppies, the pow'dairs!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
xposted: Snowline down to 1500 m in the Isere now. There's been 20cm of snow since Thursday in western sector of the French alps above 2000 meters, which, coupled with the strong winds, means the avalanche situation will start to reach considerable levels on a wide North sector especially above 2000 meters.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Henry Schniewind is talking about current avy conditions tonight online if you are interested:
https://plus.google.com/u/0/events/c198mpi11iddkt8h1upibjba7gc
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
fixx posted in the Cham snow conditions thread about the first avalanche deaths in Chamonix this season http://www.ledauphine.com/haute-savoie/2016/01/03/chamonix-une-avalanche-s-est-produite-aux-grands-montets

Google translate provides the gist, looks like three climbers were caught on a route up Grands Montets.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Risk Level 4 above 2400m tomorrow in my neck of the woods (Tignes) - tied with the first potential (windblown) powder day for this year's newbie seasonnaires - it could be a lethal cocktail. Take care folks!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Around 20cm of new snow has fallen overnight but accompanied by a lot of wind in places. For example in the Ecrins the winds, gusting to 80km/h have stripped the snow from where this Meteo France weather station is located. That 30cm of snow has gone somewhere, probably into that nice powder field you are looking at skiing today. There was a lot of snow drifting visible yesterday afternoon with a wind direction dominating from the West to South (so a lot of blown snow on North sector slopes today).

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The Aosta Valley avy bulletin suggests over 50cm has fallen in places, with risk level ranging from 4 to 1, moving West to East along the valley.
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Sadly there were 2 major avalanches in Val D'Isere today, one on the Face De Bellvarde in the Couloirs which resulted in a very serious injury and 2 not so serious. Then at about 1200 a Spaniard was killed in above the closed Santons Piste. RIP

From radio val:
http://www.radiovaldisere.com/index.php?p=infos&id=6039
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Spanish skier who died didn't have a tranceiver. (If my understanding is correct)
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The fact that the skier killed didn't have a transceiver meant it simply took longer to find him. Having the "equipment" doesn't protect you from the risk of being caught in an avalanche that is down to ones judgement.

Was the skier skiing with a group and was there a qualified guide? I doubt it that there was a guide because they would have been equipped with transceivers, shovels & probes. Santons is a blue run but is often closed after new snowfalls because it is a gully and the sides are quite steep and therefore susceptible to avalanches.

The avalanche risk is currently 4 ie. very high. I wouldn't ski off piste with that level of Avalanche risk, even the shallower gradient slopes will be dangerous following the reasonable snowfalls after so little snow for over a month.
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@welshflyer, I think I read yesterday that the guy in Santons (which was probably loaded on both sides of the gully) had the avalanche triggered by another skier, presumably above them. Have to say I wouldn't have gone anywhere near Santons in yesterday's conditions.
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Will the heavy wet snow/sleet/rain fall forecast in the French Alps followed by a very cold spell help to stabilise the snowpack?
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@leggyblonde,

I'm no expert but the weak layer is already in the snowpack.

More snow on top of the current layers may in time help stabilise the snowpack but I think in some areas the weak layer will remain for a long time.

Any new snow may simply create even more layers which will be unstable.

In Val d'isere there is a lot more information about the local snow conditions. Henry of "HAT" (Henry's Avalanche Talk) is based in Val d'isere and on a daily basis he writes about the snow conditions.

http://www.henrysavalanchetalk.com/

PS I have no connection with HAT but I have been to a number of his lectures and skied with him and other mountain guides in Val d'isere.
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