 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Well we obviously need to remain vigilant about the prospect of higher temperatures next winter and be ready to raise base rates should be see any return.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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will there be snow in sere chevalier in the second week in January? I'd like to know so i can book my holidays now.
thanks.
gets hat and coat.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, Last season? I'm still in this season and hoping for freshies. Interesting post by the way.
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waynos, good point! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
o... for the last few weeks the trend has been for a colder run up to winter (October to December) than normal.
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I'm more excited by the big red blob over where I live on the T2M for the summer 
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Last season that trend which started becoming apparent in August and firming up by October was that winter would start colder than average and be drier than average. |
Where?
Lets just have a little old reality check here:
20th October 2010 from Nozawaonsen:
Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps...
17th October 2010 I said (talking about the Northern French Alps):-
> after two reasonable seasons it reads “snow drought” to me, with maybe better conditions in the Southern Alps / Pyrenees and close to the border with Italy where you can get some precipitation blown up from depressions that traverse Mediterranean.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, Sold, will you take a cheque! 
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davidof, I'm not sure why you being so confrontational?  You are quoting tremendously selectively there. And actually I was quoting Joe Bastardi in the section you mention (which you don't bother to point out). I didn't go on to say he was necessarily right. Anyway here is some of what I did say and flag up.
13 August 2010 "Worth saying that despite temperatures on the continent looking lower than average [for winter], the precipitation is also looking lower than average [for winter]." [based on repeated runs of the NOAA seasonal probability forecast.]
14 September 2010 "Less good is the NOAA precipitation forecast which has been pushing a dryer than average winter story all summer long..." [based on NOAA seasonal probability forecast]
16 September 2010 "... precip will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter." [Bastardi] and as part of the same post: "The precipitation point (which has been in a number of models all summer) could be rather frustrating - there won't be much snow without it..."
21 September "However, if NOAA has had a generally cooler than average start to winter on the cards for a while now, then so too has it been having a drier than usual winter... Which is less good... I'd make a case for the Eastern Alps looking very slightly better (ie average) than the Western Alps (and in reality the accuracy of this type of model is not detailed enough to make that sort of distinction, but...) , but overall there is rather a lot of orange about which seems to me to indicate that the probability of a drier (less snowy) than usual winter is running higher across a lot of Europe than other outcomes..."
05 October Flagged up a piece by Paul Hudson "Winter 2010/2011 update: Cold and dry?" which suggested winter in Europe would be dominated by high pressure.
08 October Flagged up Meteo France suggesting a Colder and drier than normal winter [I put it in bold as to flag it up]
10 October NOAA models continued to show "below average precipitation" and went on to say "There does however seem to be a general consensus amongst the LRF's that continental Europe will see a colder and drier than average early winter..."
14 October "... the alpine ski resorts may have another good season, although cold conditions on their own don’t ensure this because unless some mild and moist air gets into the mix, it often remains too dry for the heavy snow needed." [Brian Glaze at TWO]
15 October "Worth saying that the JAMSTEC precipitation anomaly model for European winter is... drier than normal..." [put in bold to flag it up]
17 October "Netweather... cold start to winter and extremely dry" [put in bold to flag it up]
More generally I'd repeat that this is just meant to be some fun, some of the LRF's and models picked up some of the trends last year, maybe they will this year, maybe they won't.
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, just carry on with the good work. We all read it, you clearly know a lot more about it than me and it's great stuff!!! If there's some folk here who want to mark you on your previous predictions by trawling your posts, let them get on with it. They clearly have very little to do with their time.
Cheers
Kersh
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Kersh, Agreed!
nozawaonsen, it's a bit of fun and I read it (without taking it too seriously!)
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's all Nostradamus stuff though isn't it? Lots of vague predictions left and right but nothing too specific. Just a waste of bandwidth really you've got to admit.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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cathy, davidof,
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Just a waste of bandwidth really you've got to admit.
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like most of the stuff on the internet!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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davidof, I really don't know what your problem is. I can't help notice on your own forum you recently posted a "vague" forecast running up to October (and you subsequently quoted it in a separate thread here). I've repeatedly said this is just meant to be a piece of fun and not to be taken that seriously. You are hardly likely to get an accurate forecast at this range. So it's bound to vague.
If you don't like it don't read it, certainly don't bother posting. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, totally agree, I thought he was being tongue in cheek and trying to be funny, it was quite obvious that you were quoting others.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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this is one thread I keep coming back to , loved reading it all winter , continued reading it after my trip in Feb , keep up the good work
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| Stiniog wrote: |
| this is one thread I keep coming back to , loved reading it all winter , continued reading it after my trip in Feb , keep up the good work |
what I meant was the 2010/11 thread 
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Given the warm temperatures we had during March interesting Paul Hudson piece "Coldest March globally for 17 years"
[and I do just mean I thought it was interesting, not that I think it means anything in one direction or another about the global warming debate or anything else - EDITed lots of times because I'm being incompetent posting the link...].
Last edited by After all it is free  on Tue 12-04-11 23:43; edited 4 times in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Where are the so-called Global Warming Brigade now!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Funny you should mention global temps. It's been (relatively) cool here in the UAE this spring as well. Also very dry, it's rained this week for the first time since mid January as well (and before someone points out we live in a desert that's still way less than usual!  ).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Keep up the good work Noza. I love reading your predictions and look forward to the next update. Even if they don't come true it's fascinating to read. Long may it continue. 
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nozawaonsen, You need to close this thread and start another or it will be into 20+ pages before May. 
By the way I too am addicted to your forecasts so well done and keep it up.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Comparing the NOAA/CFS and JAMSTEC forecasts there is an important underlying difference in the forecast, specifically the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Whereas the NOAA/CFS forecast favours the ENSO going neutral next winter (see the diagram at the top of the page), JAMSTEC sees the La Nina conditions (which we had this winter) rebounding and persisting into early 2012.
[you can see this on the JAMSTEC site by clicking on "El Nino Index."]
This may in part be behind the colder and slightly drier winter that JAMSTEC is currently suggesting over Europe next winter. Obviously way off in the distance, broad brush, take with a pinch of salt and could easily change. But worth noting if this type of thing interests you.
Joe Bastardi discusses this on his blog, When it comes to the ENSO, My money is NOT on the CFS. And just to avoid confusion, my flagging up Bastardi's comments or quoting him does not mean that that I'm necessarily agreeing with him.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting to see that the recent winter in the US was in fact the third snowiest winter since current records began (1967), albeit not as snowy as the winter before. Shame it was not like that in Europe...
Anyway looking out at the rather nice sunny weather it is worth considering that one aspect which may have an impact on next winter is the continuing low solar activity. NASA has repeatedly lowered its forecast for the solar maximum which we are heading towards.
"Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 62 in July of 2013. We are currently over two years into Cycle 24. The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in nearly 200 years." [Marshall Space Flight Centre 04/04/11]
Here is a pretty picture of the sun with a graph in front of it
The actual impact of solar activity on the earth is somewhat contested and forms the basis of some rather arcane ideas. Leaving them to one side there is some suggestion that it may have some impact on the NAO which is emphasised during winter months and could have contributed to some of the particularly cold weather at times over the last three winters.
Obviously time will tell...
[edit to change picture to link]
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sat 30-04-11 14:50; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Here are a couple of interesting NOAA maps showing last winter (NB it's obvious, but just to underline this means December to February, so for example does not take into account the very warm spring weather).
Precipitation
[edit: three month rolling so link removed]
You can really see from this the band of dry weather over much of the Alps. It's noticeable that parts of the Northern French Alps and the Valais look like they had less than 50% of average snowfall. It's also noticeable how much of North West Italy received, around 150% more than normal.
Temperature
[edit: three month rolling so link removed]
This is intersting because for the majority of the Alps it was around normal (though slightly warmer around Salzburg over winter as a whole). December was very cold indeed across Europe, the second half of January was cold in many places too (both cold periods coinciding with negative NAO). But there were also some very warm temperatures in the first half of January and much of February was above average. So in all despite a very cold start it ended up average.
Of course things then went on through the first half of spring to stay relatively dry and much warmer than usual...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 4-07-11 23:08; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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NOAA's own assessment of the ENSO forecast from mid March.
"Nearly all of the ENSO models predict La Niña to continue weakening in the coming months, and the majority of models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral by May-June-July 2011 (three month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Figs. F1-F13). While there is confidence in ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2011, the forecasts for the late summer and beyond remain highly uncertain. At this time, all of the multi-model forecasts suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will persist from June through the rest of the year. However, the spread of individual model forecasts and overall model skill at these lead times leaves the door open for either El Niño or La Niña conditions by the end of 2011."
Their own model at the top of the page has continued to trend slightly upwards.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, that temperature map is bizarre! It's almost as if the Salzburgerland in particular was singled out for warmer temperatures
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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robboj, yes there are islands of warmth or cold dotted throughout the map. Keep in mind though that it is an average spread over a whole season. There could be a number of reasons for the particular island. Apart from the obvious, possibly it was actually caused by that area being less cold than others when it was very cold rather than necessarily warmer than average at a particular point. It could be a consistent small difference which accumulated across the season. Possibly a statistical error.
Remember too that as it is spread over a whole season it doesn't really tell the whole story. It's as important when it was cold or warm, dry or wet and how they coincided in terms of what actually happened on the ground. A map like this is by it's very nature a zoomed out picture.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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hi noz
you've got me hooked on these weather maps thanks to your informative post
now that tmy sking seaon has finished I find myself still following these threads and I'm taking a greater interest in the weather back home
I've progressed from the bbc 3 day forecast to reading the Meteociel "Cartes du modèle BOM ACCESS (Australie)"
I've been looking at thge pressure maps, the jet stream and precipitation , does the jet stream dictate the high pressure , or is it the high pressure block dictation the flow of the jet stream?
I hope that asking these questions doesn't put me in the "clay class" catagory
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just realised that there is a sticky "beginner guide"
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Stiniog, glad you've enjoyed it!
If you do enjoy looking at the weather and weather models and want to look beyond winter in the mountains, I would recommend joining a forum like The Weather Outlook which I think is a very friendly and helpful forum.
In terms of UK weather, of course summer may not have the drama of extreme cold and possible snow, but April is shaping up to be very warm (record breaking?) and it's looking pretty dry so far, so summer could be interesting (plus thunderstorms).
On your original question. It is inevitably an interplay between lots of different features. In the first part of winter, high pressure blocking disrupted the jet stream, in the latter part of winter the jet stream may well have bottled up the high pressure over Europe. Or that's how it seemed to me. Others may disagree.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here are the NOAA maps for March 2011 (the one's above were for winter so December to February).
Precipitation Anomaly
[edit: one month rolling so link removed]
Again dry across much of the Alps, really dry for the Northern French Alps (though wetter than normal for the Pyrenees, parts of Italy and parts of the Southern French Alps).
Temperature Anomaly
[edit: one month rolling so link removed]
And warmer for most of the Alps although around normal in parts of Italy, Pyrenees and the Southern French Alps (with a slightly odd anomaly around Salzburg again which makes me wonder if that might be an error).
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 4-07-11 23:09; edited 1 time in total
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FAQ
