Hopefully you will have found somewhere mountainous to climb up and light a beacon even if only setting fire to some bins on top of a multi storey.
Nights will soon start getting longer. Still plenty of summer to come, but it is the start of the slow shift towards winter in the northern hemisphere (though Geneva yesterday was pretty wintry!)
How's ENSO looking? Kind of neutral.
Here's what BOM have to say.
"Despite a recent cooling trend in the far eastern tropical Pacific, ENSO indicators have generally remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) since mid-2012. While the vast majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the winter, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be fully ruled out."
Currently at -0.02 (pretty much bang on neutral).
Some great snow conditions down south in NZ at the moment.
nozawaonsen, Sonnenwendfeur going to be lit here above my village and it will be seem by thousands - especially those north Germans and former East Germany inhabitants who will be parked on the A8 as they trundle down to Croatia and Italy for their summer hols! This year their journey will be a wee bit longer due to the damage the wet Spring has done to some of the major passes.
I love going up to the point where ours is lit and watching the chain of fires radiate outwards from as well as along the mountain in both directions. It is also known as Johannisfeuer as the 24th June is the feast day of St John the Baptist. As he was supposedly born 6 months before Christ they set the date as 24th June. Irrelevant for all the non-believers here BUT it is important as it marks the countdown to the beginning of the full ski season!
Also the Big Moon night this weekend as it is a full moon and the moon is at its closest to the Earth (Perigee as opposed to Apogee ) - so if it ain't cloudy and hissing with rain on Sunday night, you should see the moon fairly filling up the sky if you are lucky! (well maybe not that big, but pretty clearly )
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
How tall are those mountain flowers that someone pictured last year? Have the marmottes been observed facing north at 5am? Did the chamois mate particularly early? Are the trees particularly berry heavy at the moment?
I love all those old mountain men indicators.......... anyone got the 'real' long range forecast yet?
Going to Alpbach on 8th jan. Looking at webcams am currently worried about snow conditions!! Hoping there will be a significant snowfall around the 6th. doe this look likely??
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
mattiwilkin, I'll tell you on sunday evening after I've spoken with the Mürmeltiere on the Ahorn this weekend - we will be looking down into the Alpbachtal from the Zillertal side, so they are bound to know when their neighbours will be snowed in!
Much of the last winter and particularly spring was dominated by the jet being very far south. But for a bit of a change it looks like heading north for at least a bit. There's very consistent cross model agreement now for a period of very warm weather from Friday. Quite possibly unlike anything the UK has seen in summer since 2006.
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nozawaonsen, Reading some interesting 'thoughts' from Gavin P over on TWO, especially around the JAMSTEC modelling. If that came off we would have to worry about even getting to the Alps? Maybe even getting to the airport in January?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Quote:
some interesting 'thoughts' from Gavin P over on TWO
any link to that, would be interesting. Thanks.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Yes, JAMSTEC (Japanese) is suggesting a very cold and dry European winter in it's June update.
That suggests to me a blocked set up (-NAO) with the jet pushing south (like it did during the recent cold spring).
At this range you clearly can't put any faith in that, but if that signal continues through summer then it will be worth paying more attention to. Whether that's good or bad for snow can vary as very dry conditions aren't much use. The big snow in 2011/12 was more a result of a positive NAO, but obviously we've also had some good years recently with very cold conditions.
There has been quite a bit of interest recently in potential causes of what appears to be an increased tendency towards a more meridonal jet stream and related increased blocking. Loss of Arctic Sea Ice is a potential cause.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Blocked dry is good for the UK, at least for the eastern and central hills.
As an island dry anticylonic conditions with an easterly air flow can easily bring showers of snow off the north sea. The transitory conditions with fronts pushing into to a cold dry easterly airflow can really deliver big time as they did in March this year.
All our winters and springs over the last 5 years have been drier than average and have brought plenty of snow to the UK. This year has been particularly dry, up here at least, since Christmas. So dry and cold would be a good thing
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Here is the link to the thread from TWO, although I would say that the pictures are linked and have changed from the first time I read this.
This is the quietest I have known this thread since I have been a
Surely the British have not suddenly stopped talking about the weather!
Thought there would have been some comment about Verbier opening for the weekend in the summer for the first time since the 80s
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
If you're in the UK the you're experiencing some very warm temperatures. These look strong for at least the next ten days.
Casting a longer term view ENSO is pretty much bang on neutral at -0.01. The outlook for next season remains neutral at present.
Here's some thoughts from Cliff Mass. He's focussed on the PNW, but the blogs on ENSO. Obviously ENSO is a much bigger player if you are on the PNW.
Some hot, hot, hot temperatures in the Alps (even more so in Central Europe) as we exit July...
In it's latest mid July update, JAMSTEC looking forward suggests a colder than average Winter. All the usual caveats obviously apply!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Fascinating some of the differences between the two Jamstec projections (you can see I am an accountant as I use the word projection rather than forecast) posted - northern US much colder and Scandinavia just got hot! I notice the long range on the met office site, which I understand are not their forecasts, suggest balance of probability warmer than average October to December for much of Europe (WMO Global producing Centre - whatever that is).
That has Northern blocking written all over it at a quick glance, possibly tending to favour scandy blocking - which would advect colder air SE or East over the UK, giving us below normal winter temperatures!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Winterhighland wrote:
That has Northern blocking written all over it at a quick glance, possibly tending to favour scandy blocking - which would advect colder air SE or East over the UK, giving us below normal winter temperatures!
Yep, looking at the JAMSTEC precipitation charts that also suggests drier than average conditions over Northern Europe so some sort of -NAO (ie Northern Blocking).
Checking the anomolies charts meteociel CFS seems to suggests cold and wet, which is what we want (all rain starts off as snow, we want it to stay that way all the way to the ground. )
Same suite of graphs also suggest a possibility of high pressure out to the west over the Atlantic and east over Scaninavia, with a low over europe, but this is just "what if, and then if " (monkeys with dice) at the moment. With a possible low in February out in the Atlantic. So in the round it would suggest nice and cold on the run up to winter with the weather coming in late January into February.
nozawaonsen, I note Jamstec seems to suggest it may be drier , although Jamstec didn't show the last winters precipitation until very late, December, last year.
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There was speculation Austria might break the 40C mark, but as of 1500 the hottest I've seen was 39.1C. Still pretty hot! Ice cream parlours reporting record sales and pools full to bursting. Meanwhile some heavy hail storms in Geneva.
"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña), though areas of cooler than normal water have persisted in the eastern tropical Pacific. However, these areas of cooler than normal water are weak and fragmented, and models surveyed by the Bureau do not expect these to strengthen into a La Niña event during the austral winter or spring. This means ENSO is likely to remain neutral over the coming months." [BOM]
CFS has been pushing a -NAO and cooler than average winter for a while. Obviously too far out to take seriously.
January
February
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
If that -10 anomaly pushes NW a bit, the weather forums will implode!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And if those meteorologia fantasia charts came to pass, even without pushing further NW, Glencoe wouldn't need to switch on the new snow cannons to maintain the plateau poma link.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Brett Anderson of Accuweather reckons ECM is suggesting a -NAO for winter.
For Europe that would tend to suggest colder than average and drier than average for the northern Alps, but at this range it's all pretty hit and miss.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
We're reaching the point in the next couple of days where the 30 year mean temperature starts it's slow decline towards winter. You can see that in the thick red line on the chart below (this one's for the Arlberg).
Of course that's just the long term average and that doesn't mean there won't be warmer weather and indeed it looks like the Alps (and the UK) could see a warmer than average end to August.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Accuweather's take on Autumn in Canada.
"The ski and snowboard season across western Canada should start on or ahead of schedule as colder, snowy weather gets established from October through November."
Latest JAMSTEC still going for a cooler (and drier) looking winter, but much less keen on cold than last two monthly updates. At this stage I'd simply say there is a weak signal for cooler than average weather in a number of the models for the Alps this winter, but nothing you'd want to put any money on. But given that we are in August that's not exactly a surprise.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
For all those looking for the snow in October and November, it's worth keeping in mind that 'thermal' mid-winter for Highland Scotland is mid February - maybe that's why 14th February is good for a huggle!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ENSO for the coming winter looks like it will be neutral (within +/-0.5 range) at present.
Continuing snow showers above about 2600m in the eastern Alps over next couple of days before looks like warming up again. Hints of a further brief cold spell at weekend. First edges of autumn starting to ripple towards the mountains...
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/. Autumn forecast is out ,he is pretty good on his long range forecasts . Looking for below average temps for Nov , good for Scotland and Possibly the Alps ?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
According to ZAMG the summer just gone was one of the warmest and sunniest on record for Austria.
The first half of September looks generally above average too.
After all it is free
After all it is free
GFS pushing low pressure down into the Mediterranean for the middle of next week (still a fair amount of uncertainty, ECM has it further east). If GFS is right though it looks like it could bring snow down to 2000m or a bit below in parts of the eastern Alps.
If it happens likely to be short lived of course, but a bit of a teaser perhaps.
Last edited by After all it is free on Fri 22-11-13 8:35; edited 10 times in total
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Not a great deal of clarity this morning on potential for early Autumn snow next week. Heavy rain later tonight and tomorrow should turn to snow from around 2300m. It then looks like some snow down to around 2000m or just below from Wednesday through Friday, most likely around eastern Switzerland and western Austria. The latest GFS operational suggests little more than a dusting, a number of the ensembles go for something heavier. Most then suggests milder and more seasonal temperatures for mid September by next weekend.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Does look like the second half of this week might put some snow in the eastern Alps down to a relatively low level. And indeed after a weekend warm up, next week looks like holding some promise too. Nothing particularly out of the ordinary (nor does the snowfall look that heavy), but nice to see hopefully as we start our way through autumn!
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
) - so if it ain't cloudy and hissing with rain on Sunday night, you should see the moon fairly filling up the sky if you are lucky! (well maybe not that big, but pretty clearly 
)
)
, although Jamstec didn't show the last winters precipitation until very late, December, last year.
