 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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There's this report from the BBC on the same research. I think 'climate change' is probably a much better description than 'global warming'.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Will it get warmer? Colder? I think I'll take each day as it comes!
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If the Atlantic Conveyor switches off, Northern Europe (and especially the UK) will be in for a shock. The proper winters the Scots used to 'enjoy'  will be back with a vengeance!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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davidof, it is a nice job, a friend of mine was on a similar trip a few years prior to that and he seemed to enjoy it, though his trip was for collecting rock samples from the ocean floor though he did mention that cleaning them using hydroflouric acid on a rolling ship at sea was somewhat hazerdous 
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davidof, thanks for the link.
From the article, a quote from Jochem Marotzke, an oceanographer at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg:
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| the chances of imminent collapse of the circulation system is small |
The sort of reassuring finding or comment that is filtered out by the BBC and other mass media in their coverage of climate change.
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| Quote: |
The sort of reassuring finding or comment that is filtered out by the BBC and other mass media in their coverage of climate change.
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That's always been the problem. It's only a matter of time until the 'Ice age is coming' headlines hit the tabloids
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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you cant beat a slow news day for this old chestnut to do the rounds.. put it up there with hose pipe bans for south east and super insects from north africa taking over the eco system
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The mini ice age senario was prayed for fervently on UKclimbings winter forum especially during the warm seasons early this decade. Bring on the Canadian weather 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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This is nothing new - however, it does now increasingly look more likely.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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What seems to have been missed from media coverage is that although the North Atlantic conveyor seems to show a 30% reduction in flow, the branch that circulates around mid-Atlantic into the Caribbean seems to have increased substantially, providing significant amounts of extra energy in that system. I wonder if it is a coincidence that this year's hurricane season was a record-breaker?
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rob@rar.org.uk, no coincidence warmer waters in the Caribbean area were reported as the reason that this years hurricanes were so severe, energy has to go somewhere, if it's not heating the waters arround the UK then it must be heating water elsewhere
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You know it makes sense.
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| rob@rar.org.uk wrote: |
| What seems to have been missed from media coverage is that although the North Atlantic conveyor seems to show a 30% reduction in flow, the branch that circulates around mid-Atlantic into the Caribbean seems to have increased substantially, providing significant amounts of extra energy in that system. I wonder if it is a coincidence that this year's hurricane season was a record-breaker? |
26 hurricanes so far, breaking the 21 hurricane record
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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When was the 21 hurricanes season? If it corresponded to a cold winter in NW Europe, it would support rob's interesting and plausible theory. Conversely, it would be useful to know how many hurricanes there were preceding the 1947 and 1963 hard winters.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Answering the first of my questions, the year was 1933 (aside: plenty of hurricanes happened after 60 fewer years of fossil fuel burning!) and the subsequent winter, in Scotland at least, was on the mild side, if anything.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Oh dear. The 1946 and 1962 hurricane seasons were "fairly quiet". There were only 5 named storms in 1946. The theory's looking shaky, at least as a general theory as opposed to an explanation of one year's phenomena. Damned weather - it's just so unpredictable!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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laundryman, it was more of a hypthesis from me, rather than a theory. As you say, the weather is so unpredictable that I think it is unwise to draw major conclusions from just one year's worth of events. Equally, I don't think it would be wise to correlate weather systems in one part of the world with activity in another. Clearly weather patterns are linked, but in much more complex ways that a straightforward action and reaction.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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laundryman, have a look at the intensity of hurricanes rather than their number, as I understand the theory the warmer waters off the US intensify the storms raising them to higher catagories, I don't know for certain but I think that the hurricanes start on the other side of the ocean but that their strength is determined off the US coast
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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D G Orf, you could be inviting me to start on a second career in climatology! I might see if I can dig out something sometime!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Reading through this I note that there is very little going on in the first few data points, then the most recent one basically shows a bit change..... while the result is interesting, there is little about reproduceibility. While I am sure the data has been checked for errors, it isnt beyond possibility that they have hit an oceanic fluctuation (in fact I would much sooner favour that interpretation. Until the program to study this in depth produces some data, I wont worry too much..... though i have to say i rather fancy canadian style winters!
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We're well overdue an Ice Age. It's only a matter of time.
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I can believe it with the temperatures we have been having in Bern,Switzerland the last 2 weeks. Plenty of negative C's 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I'm no climate expert, but I'm sure I read somewhere that the weather system is so complex and ‘chaotic’ that predicting future conditions by building (even very sophisticated) computer models has been largely unsuccessful.
Basically all such projections rely on finding patterns in past event and looking at what the outcome was, and then trying to spot similarities with recent events. The core problem is that in any chaotic system ‘similar’ does not mean ‘identical’ and small difference in starting conditions can have huge consequences as far as outcomes.
Bottom line, we can all recognise that global warming is taking place, but we can’t say what the effect will be on specific weather in specific places. That said it is generally agreed that more energy (heat) in the system will result in wider swings of extreme weather, (droughts, floods, storms etc).
Personally I’m hoping for Californian summers and substantially increased snowfall from November through to May. 
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AxsMan, I understand the possibility of the world having more floods and storms if it gets significantly warmer, but not droughts. If all that water locked in the ice caps circulates in the liquid and gas phases, it must get wetter overall. Of course, certain regions might get drier, but that would be against the trend, I think.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Even with a substantially cooler atlantic we would still remain an Island and therefore subject to a maratime climate.
Presumably though with less energy in the Atlantic we would get fewer altantic depressions and therefore winters would become drier. Paradoxically summers would be sunnier and probably warmer than they are now probably with more convective rainfall. Living on the coast could be less pleasant though due to more fogs.
We may get more easterly set ups and more atlantic blocking. Depending on the extent of cooling our climate could improve, though Autumn and Spring would be shorter, much like they have been this year.
A cooler winter and a drier brighter summer could lead to gradual re galciation and then year round skiing. 
It certainly challenges the current climate change model that we have been given for the UK ie. warmer wetter winters, drier hotter summers and more intense storms throughout the year.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Paul Holland, you state: "It's only a matter of time until the 'Ice age is coming' headlines hit the tabloids"
We've been there already, in the 1960s and 70s. Back then the looming ice age was all the rage. When that worst ever disaster failed to materialise Beardo the Wierdo moved onto the hole in the ozone layer in the 80s and death by radiation. That particular canard proved to be closing up in the 90s and we were on to global 'warming'. Since some parts of the world have been cooling for decades and shown to be doing so, it's a case of "whoops! erm ... it's 'climate change' then, that's what we meant, climate change.
Well du-huh, of course the climate is changing, it's always changing. It goes up, it goes down. Climate has been warmer in the past, it has been cooler. A pal puts it best:
What we have here is a turf war for taxpayer cash. On the one side we have the "Hard Scientists" who studied physics, chemistry and engineering and who invent things that make the world a better place. On the other you have the "softies" who spent their biology lab time growing hash and have a tendancy to wear tofu sandals. Because their "science" is much more exciting, sexy and easy to understand the greenies have commanded much of the media attention for the past couple of decades. And with publicity comes large amounts of research cash. Thousands of careers have been built on the back of keeping the public and politicians in fear of one doomsday scenario after the other.
But people are beginning to realise that while they put on a good show and so on, there is something a little shaky with the bearded ones' predictions. For one thing they keep having to change their tune. For another, they don't actually come up with any solutions (Kyoto is supposed to delay warming by a couple of years nothing more.)
People are starting to listen to the men in lab coats again because they do have answers that don't seem to involve covering Britain with wind chimes or returning to the dark ages. Even Phoney Tony Bliar seems to have grasped this at last.
Their careers, countless field trips to tropical locales and the endless supply of nubile research assistants is under threat. Expect the greenies to become more and more shrill - all in the interests of mankind, of course.
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You know it makes sense.
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4thefunofit, I take exception: I am a bearded "hard" scientist!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Take a look on the web at the younger dryas event.(named after a plant). Brief(700 year) blip in current warming pattern in this glacial period. happened about 12000 years ago when shift in atlantic circulation. Glacier formed once more in Cwm idwal. Snowdonia must have been a great place to ski.
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Poster: A snowHead
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There is/was a freak E.Atlantic tropical storm over the New Year, if that had travelled up into the Gulf it might have raised a few eyebrows. But to extrapolate the theories above I wouldn't be investing in a Caribbean holiday home 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Masque, sell short on the futures market.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There seems to be a very misleading mistake of labelling by the media here: I'm not sure if it is deliberate, to cause a fuss and confuse matters or if people are really that stupid (seems unlikely). We are not talking about an ice age, which would be a contradiction of global warming. Ice Ages involve global cooling. Here we are talking about a general global warming which might happen to cause a local cooling effect.
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FAQ
