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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
No need to fret if you’re out in the Alps and are concerned that you might be missing out on some good weather at home Laughing
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-12-27
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@denfinella, yeah, looks like that.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Greenland got its name from Erik The Red, an Icelandic murderer who was exiled to the island. He called it “Greenland” in hopes that the name would attract settlers.

It's quite something to deny climate change based on the marketing name given to a country by a murderer. But someone on this thread actually did it.
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denfinella wrote:
What about the weather indeed? Smile A few more very mild days, and then...

The models are still forecasting an unsettled period from around the turn of the year onward, mostly in the northern Alps. What's less welcome is the likely temperatures (again), with rain lower down.

GFS currently has the worst scenario, with the rain/snow limit often around 16/1700m in the western Alps (a few hundred metres lower further east).

GEM is better, with rain confined mostly below 1400m. Again, a little cooler further east.

ECM is somewhere in between, with a mix of cooler and milder pulses of air. This model currently brings precipitation to the southern Alps (e.g. Italy) too.

Overall, it looks to me as if conditions will improve at altitudes where there is already a reasonable base, but lower areas (esp. in the west) will continue to struggle.

All the models currently point towards the unsettled weather lasting around a week (til Jan 7th ish). Subject to change at this stage of course!

Yep … the FL seems to have nudged down by another 200 metres since yesterday’s runs which would be good for mid-mountain altitudes in the PdS for example.
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buchanan101 wrote:
Greenland got its name from Erik The Red, an Icelandic murderer who was exiled to the island. He called it “Greenland” in hopes that the name would attract settlers.

It's quite something to deny climate change based on the marketing name given to a country by a murderer. But someone on this thread actually did it.


Lol, ok... https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/28003-greenland-once-truly-green-scientists-reveal

P.S.: I find it particularly amusing how every study or article that helps to dismantle the idiocy of the "global boiling" narrative has some kind of "funding failsafe mechanism" such as: However, Professor Willerslev is quick to note that this does not mean we should stop worrying about sea level rise resulting from global warming.'
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Yes. It was green. 2.5 million years ago

So your point is?

https://visitgreenland.com/articles/10-facts-nellie-huang/#:~:text=Greenland%20Really%20Was%20Green&text=It%20actually%20got%20its%20name,than%202.5%20million%20years%20ago.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It definitely wasn’t green when it was named. Now where’s the idiocy?
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VTSkier wrote:
It definitely wasn’t green when it was named. Now where’s the idiocy?


It was a marketing gimmick.
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Yeah, Vikings were great marketeers wink
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nunex wrote:
Yeah, Vikings were great marketeers wink


So why do YOU think it was named Greenland hundreds of thousands of years after it was actually green?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Unless you are a time traveler, you are just assuming it wasn’t green when they arrived there…
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Greenland lost 200 billion tons of ice in 2023.

Won't be long before it's green once again.

Back to the Alps...

Sunny and baking again today.

Tan has reached Hollywood Level 3.

Trails are becoming an icerink.

More sun for the rest of this week.

Rain and snow from this weekend and early next week.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whitegold wrote:
Greenland lost 200 billion tons of ice in 2023.

Won't be long before it's green once again.

Back to the Alps...

Sunny and baking again today.

Tan has reached Hollywood Level 3.

Trails are becoming an icerink.

More sun for the rest of this week.

Rain and snow from this weekend and early next week.


No melt in Val d'isere village or on the hill
I have seen no dripping water. Even the footpaths are in good nick

Even.at the bottom of M there is only a bit of ice in the very narrowest bits, and this is down to wear and tear nothing else.
Shitegold needs to do a bit more digging
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This used to be an excellent, focused, thread. Shame it hasn’t remained so.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Agreed @Inboard, ......is it snowing in Newtonmore?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
According to every forecast, St Anton seems good as well and with below zero temps. Where is the "baking" in the Alps, specifically?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I've followed this excellent thread for over 10 years now but totally concur with Inboard - where are you Noza? Crying or Very sad
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& as for Mr shitegold..... rolling eyes
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@pandjack, indeedy
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@nunex, it’s getting baking in whitegolds little flat, as the heat rises as we respond to the troll and he grabs another kleenex
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Arrived in Moutiers before travel up to les menuires in the morning and it’s below freezing at 500m. Locals say it’s been nice in day but still low single digits not anything like 10
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Very warm around Leysin today. I saw a reading of 12degrees c in village but that was unlikely to be an accurate reading.
Spring snow offpiste in the sun. Slush on piste.
Les Diablerets which is in a shaded valley below 3000m peaks was much colder -4 at 9am and never got much above 0 all day with hard icy pistes.
Shows how aspect and local topography can be a huge influence.
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pandjack wrote:
I've followed this excellent thread for over 10 years now but totally concur with Inboard - where are you Noza? Crying or Very sad


Where is Noza Sad
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@sussexmartlet,
Quote:

Where is Noza

Too many trolls/unappreciative people for him in the end, I think. Sadly.
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MeteoBlue forecasting a lot of precipitation for the French Alps next Tuesday/Wednesday. Looks like 50cm snowfall for the likes of Val D’Isere, Val Thorens.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looking snowy and then cold for early Jan snowHead
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nunex wrote:
According to every forecast, St Anton seems good as well and with below zero temps. Where is the "baking" in the Alps, specifically?


I wouldn’t call it baking but in Les Arcs it’s far warmer than normal for time of year. Probably high single digits at top and certainly in teens in Vallandry. Was skiing yesterday in thin gloves and jacket over T-shirt. Normally it’s multiple layers and thick gloves.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I usually refer to bergfex (which I pay for the iPhone app) with an occasional look at snow-forecast , wepowder and more recently the multimodel meteoblue.

We arrived in Mayrhofen on 17th dec and bergfex was already predicting heavy snow higher up (rain low down) , high winds for the 22nd , 23rd .
Snow forecast and wepowder did not agree at all …!

We asked the ski shop what happens if the forecast comes true - do they ever shut the penkenbahn and the lady said to ignore it - “bergfex is just for tourists” and they never close the penken , only once in 8 years ..and it caused chaos as lots of people had skis stored at the top (and it was a changeover day).

Well the bergfex forecast was about spot on , and the penken was shut on the 22nd and 23rd …(we visited the zillertal brewery on the 22nd which is highly recommended and went to Innsbruck for a day on the 23rd to visit the Xmas market - really enjoyed it).

Anyway , my point is - bergfex any use or just for tourists ?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Whilst I know its "only" the BBC forecast, but at the moment its showing 10 days of snow activity of varying degrees of intensity from NYE for much of the alps.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
GFS based models show lots of precipitation but freezing level too high for many northern French Alps stations.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Lots of rain for the likes of Morzine.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Both Bergfex and MeteoBlue are showing lots of snow and then sustained lower temperatures from a week’s time for Austria. They don’t often concur so far out.
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@sheffskibod, Bergfex will have one of the main engines behind it so won’t “just be for tourists”. I find it quite good

It’s also free, so I don’t think you will be paying for it.

Not sure why you’d want to store skis up the Penken. Severely limits choice of where to go…
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@buchanan101, there’s a paid “pro” version that gets you more regular updates (half hourly?). It explains the models it uses - I think for longer range forecasts it uses the ECM operational run, which would explain the volatility sometimes.

From the “info” link in the Bergfex app:

The weather forecasts are updated every 6 hours, in the PRO version every 30 minutes.
The forecasts are generated by the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG).
Short-term (for the first 72 hours) forecasts (PRO version only) are generated with the AROME model, long-term forecasts (up to 9 days) with the ECMWF model.
Data for the short-term forecast (next few hours) are generated using the INCA of ZAMG and are updated for bergfex every 30 minutes as well.
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@andy from embsay, oh thanks.

So they use two of the main engines: ZAMG and ECM… can’t see why it’d be “just for tourists…”
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Me neither @buchanan101 - the longer range stuff is no better (or worse) than anyone elses, and the short term forecast uses a decent range of models (as does meteoblue).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ok…I AM an unlimited Pro user… I don’t pay for it. Must be historical - signed up before they started monetising it
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More and more mysterious… don’t actually have a Bergfex account. Not going to risk signing up for one. Must be an old install
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Interesting they promote 30min updates when the major models only refresh 6 hourly I believe?
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