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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I like sun and cold temperatures, a combo often experienced in the Dolomites in January and February. Bliss.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hurtle wrote:
I like sun and cold temperatures, a combo often experienced in the Dolomites in January and February. Bliss.


Our first Dolomites trip is booked for February. Excited.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Gored wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
Gored wrote:
I cant think of anything worse.
A day in the office?


If you mean the time of the year, then I prefer working over xmas, easter, summer & any other holiday that is going to spoiled because of the increase number of kids.
If you mean the conditions, then nope - I know my enjoyment factor decreases in the conditions mentioned.
I much prefer being in a blizzard & wipeout. I remember those days better & it makes the beer colder & the spiked hot chocolate taste even better. Each to their own.


I don’t mind a whiteout on tree lined pistes.

Above the tree-line I find it dangerous, in Hochgurgl Easter 2022 I smashed my face against a heap of rock solid ice underneath powder.
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For me, skiing is skiing. There's joy to be found in all conditions. The only thing I draw a line at is skiing in heavy rain.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
rob@rar wrote:
For me, skiing is skiing. There's joy to be found in all conditions. The only thing I draw a line at is skiing in heavy rain.


With a decent base I don’t mind that for half a day, empty pistes.
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rob@rar wrote:
For me, skiing is skiing. There's joy to be found in all conditions. The only thing I draw a line at is skiing in heavy rain.


yea, skiing is skiing, but with limited annual leave, I only get upto 2 weeks for winter fun, then the 2 weeks somewhere hot!
That is 20 days out of her 25 days annual leave used up & it would not be fair to sneak off on my own! However the 2 weeks / 2weeks changes year by year how we split it, this year is nearly 3 weeks for Japan, but only 1 week skiing. So I will only have the 1 week this season & summer will be 1 week to 10 days. Ideally I would prefer the snow to how I like it. We did consider Sakura season, but we both like the winter feel to getting away to the snow.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
This is a weather, not a whether thread
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Skiing at Cairngorm didn’t work out Sad
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Baking hot in the European Alps again today.

Shredding corn at 2000m in a tee -- on Xmas Day.

December is the new April.

New Year forecast next week is throwing up wind, snow, rain, and sun.

Stay tuned.
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Whitegold wrote:
Baking hot in the European Alps again today.

Shredding corn at 2000m in a tee -- on Xmas Day.

December is the new April.

New Year forecast next week is throwing up wind, snow, rain, and sun.

Stay tuned.


According to MeteoBlue no overnight freezes in Meribel this week, +10c on Weds day time.

Is that warmth and ensuing thaw even possible at the end of December? Can Meteoblue be relied upon?
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Ya, it's too hot to spray snow for many stations right now -- even at nite.

Temps are at August levels.

Not just Europe. Eastcoast US has been slapped by rain.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Whitegold wrote:
Ya, it's too hot to spray snow for many stations right now -- even at nite.

Temps are at August levels.

Not just Europe. Eastcoast US has been slapped by rain.


North America’s a strange one, both the east and west coasts having incredibly mild winters. I can’t recall Quebec and Maine being so warm for months/weeks on end.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Selfishly I’ve got my eye firmly on Salzbergerland as I go late Jan

Temps 5/6 by day -2/-3 by night in the week ahead

Early Jan is too far out for any certainty, a hint at some breaking down of the current weather from 1/1 but temps there are edging up now and I’m sure this will get pushed back nearer the time Crying or Very sad

Can only wait and see
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Snow&skifan, I find Meteoblue pretty reliable.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Tue 26-12-23 13:31; edited 1 time in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
under a new name wrote:
@Snow&skifan, I find Mereoblue pretty reliable.


For Morzine meteoblue shows positive temperatures day and night for the forseeable future, with heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps naively I’m surprised at that, November-esque weather?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Another quick look at the recent model forecasts suggests a slow cooling trend throughout the next 7 days and beyond, but still with temperatures above normal. Little or no precipitation before the turn of the year, but a more unsettled trend in early January, with a continuing downward trend in temperature. Have a look at ECMWF ensemble prediction for about about 5000 FT for a grid point near to Lech: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=3005&model=ecm&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 The green line is the main high resolution run. The white line is the ensemble mean and the red line is the long term average temperature at 5000 Ft for this grid point. The peaks along the bottom show precipitation. GFS and the Canadian model show a similar trend. In summary, for those looking for more snow, the situation looks promising from early January onwards. Be careful what you wish for!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow&skifan wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@Snow&skifan, I find Mereoblue pretty reliable.


For Morzine meteoblue shows positive temperatures day and night for the forseeable future, with heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps naively I’m surprised at that, November-esque weather?

New trend I’m afraid … this is why an increasing number of low-lying resorts are now investing in their spring + summer offerings. Which is great. December snow is just not as reliable as it once was. But you have a higher chance of good conditions the further East or higher you go.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just an anecdotal observation on “trends” not backed by science whatsoever….I only started skiing 14 years ago when a few mates who had skied for decades beforehand took me to Austria. I had a million questions about it all as you’d imagine and naively assumed the alps would be in full swing with snow from November onwards as I considered that to be winter.
They said “no we’ll go first week of March” which again I naively assumed was heading to spring so how would there be snow.
Anyways they said all the way back then “never book December unless completely last minute as you just can’t trust there will be snow, it’s not proper winter for skiing until January.”
So just a long winded way of saying it doesn’t seem like a new trend to me just the way it always was.
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@jirac18, exactly.
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jirac18 wrote:
Just an anecdotal observation on “trends” not backed by science whatsoever….I only started skiing 14 years ago when a few mates who had skied for decades beforehand took me to Austria. I had a million questions about it all as you’d imagine and naively assumed the alps would be in full swing with snow from November onwards as I considered that to be winter.
They said “no we’ll go first week of March” which again I naively assumed was heading to spring so how would there be snow.
Anyways they said all the way back then “never book December unless completely last minute as you just can’t trust there will be snow, it’s not proper winter for skiing until January.”
So just a long winded way of saying it doesn’t seem like a new trend to me just the way it always was.


But the Swiss authorities for example have actually calculated the trend of reduced snowfall. Whilst the overall trend of rapidly warming temperatures in The Alps is recorded.
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@Snow&skifan, meh
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I remember 30 years ago having 2 school trips to chamonix and les gets canceled because of no snow. They where both the first week of Jan.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
dave_3 wrote:
I remember 30 years ago having 2 school trips to chamonix and les gets canceled because of no snow. They where both the first week of Jan.


A lack of snowmaking.
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@Snow&skifan,

There was snow making in Morzine in 1989.
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And current weather, of course, means snowmaking is useless at lower altitude.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Snowfall in the European Alps has plunged by 10-40% in the past 50 years.

The European ski season is roughly 1 month shorter this century than last century.

The number of yearround skiable glaciers worldwide has collapsed by -90% this century.

Some parts of the European Alps will nudge 15-20c tomorrow.

Global boiling and global drying are here and now.

There's no getting away from it.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@yellowsnow you do type a load of pish
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@under a new name, don’t feed the troll.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@kitenski, hard to resist rolling eyes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
zzz wrote:
@Snow&skifan,

There was snow making in Morzine in 1989.


The brief discussion above was about Chamonix.

Snowmaking really took off about 25 years ago, across the whole Alps.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
zzz wrote:
@Snow&skifan,

There was snow making in Morzine in 1989.


Snowmaking started in France in the mid 1960s.

The snow canons were running full tilt this morning at 1200 m in the Bauges, despite the "global boiling"
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Snow&skifan,

"Snowmaking really took off about 25 years ago, across the whole Alps."

No, not really.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
zzz wrote:
@Snow&skifan,

There was snow making in Morzine in 1989.


Snowmaking started in France in the mid 1960s.

The snow canons were running full tilt this morning at 1200 m in the Bauges, despite the "global boiling"


Past snowless winters mean nothing, really, in the context of climate change. There will still be good years and bad years but the average will get worse.
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Snow&skifan wrote:
davidof wrote:
zzz wrote:
@Snow&skifan,

There was snow making in Morzine in 1989.


Snowmaking started in France in the mid 1960s.

The snow canons were running full tilt this morning at 1200 m in the Bauges, despite the "global boiling"


Past snowless winters mean nothing, really, in the context of climate change. There will still be good years and bad years but the average will get worse.


Thats your opinion
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I see that the “global boiling” pseudoscience is strong in this thread…
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Go on then @nunex, I'll bite. Why is it pseudoscience?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Not into it, mate. You may cross this bridge without any toll. I’m sure other trolls will be happy to explain why Greenland is called Greenland.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Wow, something really triggered the knuckle draggers today!
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Anyone claiming this is all part of the standard 'climate has always changed' model should go back and check what they really know. Meanwhile, what about the weather?
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What about the weather indeed? Smile A few more very mild days, and then...

The models are still forecasting an unsettled period from around the turn of the year onward, mostly in the northern Alps. What's less welcome is the likely temperatures (again), with rain lower down.

GFS currently has the worst scenario, with the rain/snow limit often around 16/1700m in the western Alps (a few hundred metres lower further east).

GEM is better, with rain confined mostly below 1400m. Again, a little cooler further east.

ECM is somewhere in between, with a mix of cooler and milder pulses of air. This model currently brings precipitation to the southern Alps (e.g. Italy) too.

Overall, it looks to me as if conditions will improve at altitudes where there is already a reasonable base, but lower areas (esp. in the west) will continue to struggle.

All the models currently point towards the unsettled weather lasting around a week (til Jan 7th ish). Subject to change at this stage of course!
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