Radio france bleu pays de Savoie weather is predicting snow next week. They don't seem that worried about things.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
spursfan, liking that one... looks to be some snow in 3V before we get there on that forecast
After all it is free
After all it is free
18z GFs ditches the silly outliers.
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nozawaonsen, that a good thing?
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MoodyFFS, I think so. Could just be me. But the mild and dry GFS operational 06z and 12z runs weren't really ringing my bell.
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Hello all. I am gripped by this thread but have to admit am bit confused by some of the terminology! is there anywhere that explains for a newbie what the various terms relate to? or example 18z GFs - is this 1800 reading? And is ditching the outliers a good thing as moody also asks? thanks.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, i was only looking at those earlier and not thinking they looked good...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
In fairness the 18z operational run is still pretty poor. But the ensembles keep the rock rolling.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
darbyrw, i believe the runs update every six hours, but you get the data 6 hours behind... the graphs are quite simple... top lines are different models predicting temps at approx 1800m the bottom lines predict precipitation... the closer the lines the more the models agree and thus the higher likelihood of that result... you want wiggles below zero up top and big peaks (at the moment any peaks) in the wiggles at the bottom. You can find the nearest wiggles to your resort on my site...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen, where do you get the early sight of them runs?
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
spursfan, and they do the wind in proper Beaufort scale ("light air", "fresh breeze") too! Excellent find.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
darbyrw, Keep the faith. At times of doubt remember "It's a ball of confusion." Just ask The Temptations. Also Chateau Musar offers all sorts of options...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looking at the pressure charts for the French/Swiss/Italian border, most of the 18Z GFS ensemble have a good drop on or soon after 1st December. Remembering that only just over half were doing that a few days ago, it's good (or better) news.
If you were able with the forecast as you see it right now would you bail on a trip to the Alps on the 15th of December (Val Thoren but just cheap flight booked) in favour of North America?
Please consider I would really rather not spend the extra money if i could avoid it and i have a trip there in March, I just want to get some decent snow in December and so I am looking at odds of snow only with the current forecast... I have to make a decision by the 29th so no rush!!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
wafytwoo wrote:
First post, please be gentle.....
If you were able with the forecast as you see it right now would you bail on a trip to the Alps on the 15th of December (Val Thoren but just cheap flight booked) in favour of North America?
Please consider I would really rather not spend the extra money if i could avoid it and i have a trip there in March, I just want to get some decent snow in December and so I am looking at odds of snow only with the current forecast... I have to make a decision by the 29th so no rush!!
72cm in Whistler last week in 24 hours and its been snowing since....I know where I would choose if I had the choice.
wafytwoo, Bail. VT looks very likely to be sketchy at best in mid Dec
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
wafytwoo,
Wait one more week,see what happens next weekend, then if nothing head to n America , don't give up yet vt only needs a 30/40 cm snowfall and I think that will be enough to give you a good time , and save money
After all it is free
After all it is free
wafytwoo, Welcome.
If the forecast is realised, then I would think you should be fine In VT, particularly if you are a piste skier. I would still think off piste would be a bit sketchy. But the runs look well cannoned up and the Norwegian forecast is calling for about 30cms over the weekend.
I'm going to suggest they use the same sources or models as meteobleu as the forecasts are v. Similar.
Even Chamonix meteo is suggesting a disturbance soming over and there are real human forecasters behind that, not just a bundle of computers.
The big issue is that while (as i understand it) it is relatively possible to forecast inbound precipitation, the local volume delivered is difficult to predict.
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phillip33, 30/40cm on top of rocks doesn't sound like a good time, especially for your skis.....
wafytwoo, no question, you should go to N. America. If it was me I'd book now for Whistler. In the last week they've had 128cm of new snow! You can probably get good deals on lift tickets and hotels as well, with it being early season. Unfortunately I work in the French Alps so am not able to get on a plane over there but believe me I would if I could!
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I had hoped to confine it to Tahoe or Colorado and buy the Epic local pass for £300 which we can use in March to keep the cost down.. They are not available to purchase past the 29th November.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
wafytwoo, leave it as last minute as you can, could rain in whistle & dump in the alps. or vice versa!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
snowprincess, 30cms on top of prepped man made piste on top of smoothed over stone would be very fine.
Hence my comment about sketchy off piste where you would probably be quite correct and in a world of ski pain. That's why one holds on to rock hoppers.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
These charts are always fun when they show me what I want to see ...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well, it looks like snow is on its way to the alps. I keep tuning in and expecting to see "the latest GFS123 brings back the high pressure in the east and we are looking at a dry mild December" as per the whole of last years winter after I started tuning in around Xmas.
But is HAS to snow sometimes, better off to just relax and have patience. 9 weeks to Chatel and 15 to Les Arcs. I need to chill.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
moffatross, oh I like that!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
moffatross's chart (06z run) shows nicely what has been showing for a while now which is the potential for cooler (indeed below average) temperatures from around the start of December.
This looks like it will be accompanied by snow in the Alps, enough to get things started (albeit it doesn't look at this stage like a huge amount of snow). There is the potential for a further band of snow being suggested around 06 December in a number of recent runs (beyond the range of the chart above). Obviously the details are still to be defined.
Scotland has got some very violent weather over the next few days with snow in the mountains, gales and heavy rain. It does then look like getting quite a bit cooler with further snow to follow.
moffatross, looks like snow for North England as well, will keep an eye on that as my winter tyres aren't on yet!!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
A decent 12z operational has a band of snow hitting the Alps on 01/02 December, arriving in the west on the evening of 01 December, before further snowfall arrives on 04 December. Much of the rest of the run takes things colder and brings more snow.
Where it will sit in the confusion of the ensembles we'll have to see...
How you get the run so much earlier than me , who are you paying !
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Operational was in close company with the mean for much of the run. Colder than most of the pack in deep FI (around 09 December), but did persuade the control along.
12z ECM looks nice. Turn of the month looks like it's bringing a change in fortune but ... is it a full moon?
After all it is free
After all it is free
moffatross, oooh I like it, I like it
nozawaonsen wrote:
Scotland has got some very violent weather over the next few days with snow in the mountains, gales and heavy rain. It does then look like getting quite a bit cooler with further snow to follow.
I like that too
nozawaonsen wrote:
Decent ECM run too.
And that
I'm generally liking it I have to say
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
brian, do you know of an iphone app that produces wiggles?
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brian, I don't have an iphone - but very nice to hear from you, all the same. Stick around.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
