The crystal ski app is showing 78cm for Schladming on Friday, and 54cm on Saturday
Arriving on Saturday so if they even get a fraction of that I’ll be delighted!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Lozza1uk wrote:
The crystal ski app is showing 78cm for Schladming on Friday, and 54cm on Saturday
Arriving on Saturday so if they even get a fraction of that I’ll be delighted!
We’re in Schladming now, you’ll also have a perfect base. Purportedly this week it’s been +6c and that shows on mountain temperature displays, but it feels colder than that with no thaw. Perhaps due to dry air just now and short daylight hours in December?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
On the topic of the weather outlook: latest model outputs have snow incoming for the northern Alps, though rain for parts of the lowest ski areas.
The main snow event is centred around Friday 22nd, favouring the east end of the Alps (Austria). 50cm+ in places, considerably more on some models. Snowline currently looking to be around 1000m (big generalisation - lowest in the east).
Perhaps 25cm higher up for parts of the French Alps, but snowline more like 1500m ish.
Then warmer but probably drier over Christmas. Beyond that there is currently a trend back towards something more unsettled across the models, but too far away to pin down any detail or temperatures.
Southern Alps are easier to summarise: pretty dry.
On the topic of the weather outlook: latest model outputs have snow incoming for the northern Alps, though rain for parts of the lowest ski areas.
The main snow event is centred around Friday 22nd, favouring the east end of the Alps (Austria). 50cm+ in places, considerably more on some models. Snowline currently looking to be around 1000m (big generalisation - lowest in the east).
Perhaps 25cm higher up for parts of the French Alps, but snowline more like 1500m ish.
Then warmer but probably drier over Christmas. Beyond that there is currently a trend back towards something more unsettled across the models, but too far away to pin down any detail or temperatures.
Southern Alps are easier to summarise: pretty dry.
What do you mean by "a trend back towards something more unsettled across the models"?
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
there is currently a trend back towards something more unsettled across the models, but too far away to pin down any detail or temperatures.
Shows incoming rain / snow event (bump in lower set of lines), then drier but warm for Xmas, then less certainty, visible in the difference in the top set (temperature at about 1500m) of lines. Will always be less certainty the further out in time of course. This doesn't show wind - but due to be very strong over Fri / Sat.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nunex, I mean that more precipitation is forecast for the northern Alps around the New Year period, but I can't guess the snow/rain limit yet.
This morning's GFS / GEM runs have dialled up the precipitation a bit for Friday, and also brought the 0C isotherm down a little. That's better for lower slopes (e.g. in Portes du Soleil, La Clusaz).
After all it is free
After all it is free
Windy this morning. Sunny in the afternoon.
Northern Alps...
* Thurs to Sat = snow, rain, wind
* Sun = rain, snow, wind
Southern Alps..
* Thurs to Sun = sun, cloud, wind
St Anton may get 1m of fresh uptop. Rain at times in village.
Back to bluebird next week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
There are very few forecasts I skip over and ignore completely but...
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Looks fab for Xmas week. Buckets of snow on Friday and then sun, sun and more sun! Pack your sunnies and Ambre Solaire.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
This animation is fun when a storm is approaching:
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hi all, new to the site - some really useful info thanks. I have been skiing for 45 years, most recently 15 years in Dolomites (usually 1 week a year) but going to Zurs for first time at end of Jan. I'm also a meteorologist (38 years with UK Met Office). As others have mentioned, the forecast models are indicating a significant snow event quite widely over the next 48 hours, though temperatures are not especially low. Freezing levels vary from around 1500m in the west of the Alps and 1000m in the east. 50 to 100cm looks possible at upper levels in northern Alps. By 25th Dec, the freezing level rises to around 3000m - though still with overnight frost. Beyond 27th, model variability creeps in with some retaining a mild setup, whilst others drive a cold front through the Alps. Whatever happens, it's a very interesting start to the season!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Onelasttime1!, Welcome to
Have we seen you on TV? Are your initials JK?
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Wed 20-12-23 21:42; edited 1 time in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
OMG Snowheads we’ve caught a pro !
It’s a bit like Dave Ryding joining the racing thread
@Onelasttime1!, welcome
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Only on TV when something went wrong. I did know JK though!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Onelasttime1! wrote:
Only on TV when something went wrong. I did know JK though!
I hear you.
We've had a few quality Weathermen on here over the years so always good to welcome a new one
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It sounds like its looking uncertain... but any thoughts on the likelihood of noticeable snow between the 26th-30th in the French Alps (3 Valleys specifically)? Trying to decide if I need to bring fat skis as well as piste skis!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Most models are keeping high pressure over the Alps between 26th and 30th, so no indication of snow. GEM - the Canadian model - takes a cold front through on 28th with a decent fall indicated, but it is an outlier solution at the moment. ECMWF - the best model on most occasions is dry and sunny. Hope this helps
Most models are keeping high pressure over the Alps between 26th and 30th, so no indication of snow. GEM - the Canadian model - takes a cold front through on 28th with a decent fall indicated, but it is an outlier solution at the moment. ECMWF - the best model on most occasions is dry and sunny. Hope this helps
Perfect amount of information thank you (although if you can arrange for some heavy snowfall overnight during next week, that would be even better...!).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Onelasttime1!, I do hope you're not Michael Fish, he's not quite lived down his big wind faux pas.
What I really want to know, is how old was Tommy Schaf before he learnt to spell his own surname, and Does Carol K really get even more cheerful when the weather over England is bad / worse than that in Scotland?
After all it is free
After all it is free
Not looking at all good for the Hautes Alpes / Southern Alps - this is the local "Met Office report", some degree of lost in translation....
Good evening,
Some news on the weather front and not necessarily the best for the Southern Alps.
Due to adiabatic compression phenomenon and localized Foehn, the strong winds of the next few days are not good news for our stations.
This north wind could reach storm stage in the Gapençais, especially between Thursday evening and Friday. Even with gusts up to 130km/h in the mountains or 140km/h near Italy.
And all, in a very great softness with an almost absence of frost from Friday in the valleys and for a moment.
That said this week has seen some major inversions across the region.
More quite the heat inversions (colder in valleys than in altitude) this morning in the mountains!
We were able to get back in the Haute Alps:
+3.3° in Gap/North (885m)
+3.2° in Vars - Col de Jaffueil (2510m)
+2.2° in Saint-Jean-Saint-Nicholas (1210m)
+1.9° at Col Agnel (2630m)
+1.5° in Embrun (871m)
+1.3° at Gap/South (768m)
+1,3° at Galibier (2559m)
-0.6° in Veynes (823m)
-0.8° in Briançon (1311m)
-2.2° at Tallard (593m)
-3.2° in Gap/SE (720m)
-3.4° in Rosans (625m)
-5.2° in the Saix (825m)
-7.2° in Villar-d'Arene (1665m)
Currently nigh on +10 almost feels like a hair dryer blowing down the valley and snow disappearing fast off our terrace, but we are very South facing - so the pistes are not affected to the same extent, hopefully.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
t44tomo wrote:
@Onelasttime1!, I do hope you're not Michael Fish, he's not quite lived down his big wind faux pas.
What I really want to know, is how old was Tommy Schaf before he learnt to spell his own surname, and Does Carol K really get even more cheerful when the weather over England is bad / worse than that in Scotland?
Definitely not MF - He did quite well with after-dinner speeches after his faux pas - I was working abroad in Oct 87, so not my fault! Carol K is even nicer in person than she appears on TV. Not met Thomas, but he's a character and knows his stuff.]]
I visited the BBC a few times when the Met Office had the contract. Lunches were interesting events!
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Onelasttime1!,
if you are going to contribute to this thread then remember it is only for PdS, Chamonix and maybe Flaine, dont get yourself confused and think there is skiing outside of these areas...
Quote:
ECMWF - the best model
Also be careful here, this is a GFS fan zone, free and squiggles is what we like.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
hobbiteater wrote:
@Onelasttime1!,
if you are going to contribute to this thread then remember it is only for PdS, Chamonix and maybe Flaine, dont get yourself confused and think there is skiing outside of these areas...
Quote:
ECMWF - the best model
Also be careful here, this is a GFS fan zone, free and squiggles is what we like.
I'm not knocking GFS, but when I was looking at verification statistics, ECMWF would normally do better than GFS. ECMWF has better resolution (more grid points) and the model runs later than GFS, so has more observational data to use in the forecast cycle. As others have mentioned, there is a lot of GFS data out there, some useful, some less so. You do pay for ECMWF through tax, so have a browse at: https://charts.ecmwf.int where there is lot of 'free' info.
As a rule of thumb, if I'm travelling, my first source of information for a location is the National Met Service for a country. They tend to know the local weather better than anyone else and will normally add value to the automated model forecasts.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hurrah - its snowing in Italy.
Carol K would defo make my fantasy dinner party table.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Onelasttime1! wrote:
t44tomo wrote:
@Onelasttime1!, I do hope you're not Michael Fish, he's not quite lived down his big wind faux pas.
What I really want to know, is how old was Tommy Schaf before he learnt to spell his own surname, and Does Carol K really get even more cheerful when the weather over England is bad / worse than that in Scotland?
Definitely not MF - He did quite well with after-dinner speeches after his faux pas - I was working abroad in Oct 87, so not my fault! Carol K is even nicer in person than she appears on TV. Not met Thomas, but he's a character and knows his stuff.]]
I visited the BBC a few times when the Met Office had the contract. Lunches were interesting events!
Thomas on "Would I Lie To You" apparently thought Lambs and Sheep were two different animals...
@Onelasttime1!, I do hope you're not Michael Fish, he's not quite lived down his big wind faux pas.
What I really want to know, is how old was Tommy Schaf before he learnt to spell his own surname, and Does Carol K really get even more cheerful when the weather over England is bad / worse than that in Scotland?
Definitely not MF - He did quite well with after-dinner speeches after his faux pas - I was working abroad in Oct 87, so not my fault! Carol K is even nicer in person than she appears on TV. Not met Thomas, but he's a character and knows his stuff.]]
I visited the BBC a few times when the Met Office had the contract. Lunches were interesting events!
Thomas on "Would I Lie To You" apparently thought Lambs and Sheep were two different animals...
That's priceless! perhaps there weren't too many sheep or lambs in Poland. He does have a decent degree in meteorology.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Above Schladming at 1,100m it’s mild and raining heavily.
No sign of the forecast (several reliable websites) cold and blizzard
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yes minging rain all day in Lech too. Freezing level has stayed stubbornly high
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Received two warnings on my phone from Land Tirol today. The first for high winds and blizzards, the second to say tomorrow will be Level 4 avalanche risk in the West part of Tirol and 3 in the rest. Predicting over a meter of snow in the high mountains but who knows where it will all end up with the wind.
t44tomo wrote:
Carol K is defo my fantasy.
FIFY
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Onelasttime1! wrote:
hobbiteater wrote:
@Onelasttime1!,
if you are going to contribute to this thread then remember it is only for PdS, Chamonix and maybe Flaine, dont get yourself confused and think there is skiing outside of these areas...
Quote:
ECMWF - the best model
Also be careful here, this is a GFS fan zone, free and squiggles is what we like.
I'm not knocking GFS, but when I was looking at verification statistics, ECMWF would normally do better than GFS. ECMWF has better resolution (more grid points) and the model runs later than GFS, so has more observational data to use in the forecast cycle. As others have mentioned, there is a lot of GFS data out there, some useful, some less so. You do pay for ECMWF through tax, so have a browse at: https://charts.ecmwf.int where there is lot of 'free' info.
As a rule of thumb, if I'm travelling, my first source of information for a location is the National Met Service for a country. They tend to know the local weather better than anyone else and will normally add value to the automated model forecasts.
Cheers, interesting to hear from a met professional. The advise from amateurs to not defer to
ECMWF for various reasons.
if you are going to contribute to this thread then remember it is only for PdS, Chamonix and maybe Flaine, dont get yourself confused and think there is skiing outside of these areas...
Quote:
ECMWF - the best model
Also be careful here, this is a GFS fan zone, free and squiggles is what we like.
I'm not knocking GFS, but when I was looking at verification statistics, ECMWF would normally do better than GFS. ECMWF has better resolution (more grid points) and the model runs later than GFS, so has more observational data to use in the forecast cycle. As others have mentioned, there is a lot of GFS data out there, some useful, some less so. You do pay for ECMWF through tax, so have a browse at: https://charts.ecmwf.int where there is lot of 'free' info.
As a rule of thumb, if I'm travelling, my first source of information for a location is the National Met Service for a country. They tend to know the local weather better than anyone else and will normally add value to the automated model forecasts.
Cheers, interesting to hear from a met professional. The advise from informed enthusiasts and amateurs was not to rely on ECMWF for various reasons.
I often use the national service eg ZAMG.AC.AT.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
As predicted, snow, rain, and wind hammering the European Alps.
Isn't the thing about "models" is that you absolutely don't "rely" on them, except for an indication of probabilities and possibilities and, in particular, indication of how reliable those indications are?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
uh, @yellowsnow, not the Alps I'm in
After all it is free
After all it is free
Is something brewing in the NW alps for 29/30th December?
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
pam w wrote:
Quote:
not to rely on ECMWF
Isn't the thing about "models" is that you absolutely don't "rely" on them, except for an indication of probabilities and possibilities and, in particular, indication of how reliable those indications are?
Short term (5 days?) forecasting has become incredibly accurate in recent years, when met offices say rain will reach somewhere at midday on Thursday, it literally seems to arrive at that time. Similarly with temperatures, when the Met Office say the Sussex Coastal towns will be 5c at the weekend and miss the snow of Ashdown Forest, sadly as a snow lover, they get it right almost every time.
Doesn’t the modeling and ensemble focus on the medium term 6 to 14 days? Where subjectivity, choice of supercomputer and bias come into it. Also commerciality, some businesses drawing in clicks by forecasting extremes.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Snow&skifan wrote:
Short term (5 days?) forecasting has become incredibly accurate in recent years,
Not around here. Shockingly unreliable forecasts lately and flipping through 180 degrees about 12hrs out!!
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