Poster: A snowHead
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@ecureuil, There will be some offset but I very much doubt anywhere near $17+bn, many will choose to just stay at home. Personally I refuse to spend anything like what I would to go abroad for a wet cold week or two in the UK. Stunning scenery in NZ that's for sure but people go away to experience different cultures and climates they don't spend the same to stay a few hours drive or a short flight away from their homes. Camping etc may increase but that's cheap in comparison.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@ecureuil, The expectation from the BoE and other central banks/govt forecasters is that much of the money will be saved, rather than spent domestically. The BoE is expecting the savings rate to hit 17% (vs in the GFC it hit 13%) this year as households stop spending.
Travel/holidays are by far my biggest annual expense; what I'll spend in the UK is at most 10% of what I'd have spent locally in the places I was planning to visit. I see very similar trends in my parents' generation, who would otherwise be significant spenders on overseas trips - they have no appetite to spend that money on UK trips.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@ecureuil, I suspect your average Kiwi won’t spend anything like your average Brit, American or Chinese visitor when holidaying in New Zealand. So a disproportionate loss is likely
My brother lives in NZ and over there they are just as worried about the size of the economic hit and how sustainable their zero covid policy is.
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Quote: |
but people go away to experience different cultures and climates
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It used to be around 40% of kiwis going on holiday were heading to Australia. Hardly a different climate and culture. Take away the ones going home to visit family (around 30% of people living in New Zealand were not born there), and I suspect the numbers going to places with different cultures and climates is not so big.
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Personally I refuse to spend anything like what I would to go abroad for a wet cold week or two in the UK.
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Me too. It's not really comparable comparing UK with Canada and NZ though. A lot of people in Canada are taking the opportunity to visit places now while they are less busy due to lack of tourists. Also I know plenty of people that have the mindset "I'm saving money on X,y,z due to covid so I will splurge a bit on other things.
I don't think anyone is suggesting domestic tourism is going to match what's lost by international tourism. Just that the net loss might not be as bad as some think, especially when domestic tourists often make up the majority of that tourism GDP to begin with.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Quote: |
Also I know plenty of people that have the mindset "I'm saving money on X,y,z due to covid so I will splurge a bit on other things.
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3 new bikes in 3 weeks...
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Quote: |
There will be similar offsetting effects in many countries, with mainly the airline/transport sectors losing out
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I can only speak for my bit of Austria, but my perception has been that the summer tourist season has been at least as busy as usual - no doubt because of Austrians, Germans, etc. choosing to spend their holidays closer to home than usual.
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Maybe some brits will pay off some borrowing which wont be a bad thing
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snowhound wrote: |
@ecureuil, I suspect your average Kiwi won’t spend anything like your average Brit, American or Chinese visitor when holidaying in New Zealand. So a disproportionate loss is likely
My brother lives in NZ and over there they are just as worried about the size of the economic hit and how sustainable their zero covid policy is. |
Brother lives in Sydney, went with his girlfriend to a posh hotel in the Blue Mountains, hotel busy but when they visited the tourist spots they were dead. Locals may travel but they do not spend anything like what tourists spend. His walk to work through central Sydney was normally thronged with tourists, mainly Chinese of later years, now no one...Its not sustainable.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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robs1 wrote: |
Maybe some brits will pay off some borrowing which wont be a bad thing |
Leaving that for the kids. Told my 3 kids not to bother with pensions as they will be working till they are 90 to pay this one off.
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robs1 wrote: |
Maybe some brits will pay off some borrowing which wont be a bad thing |
That's exactly what's happening.
Whether it's a good thing or not is a matter of huge debate. Money spent in the restaurant gets spent to pay its staff, who spend the money in the pub, which pays its staff and suppliers, who go on and buy produce from farmers, who spend the money on equipment etc...
Money saved does none of that - it is non-productive capital. Savings defers expenditure to the future, and at this point, takes money out of the system and slows the economy down.
If people save in a recession and spend in a boom time, then economic cycles are potentially exacerbated.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Well said @snowdave. And for the government, with interest rates at 0.1% they are not saddling the future with massive debt given the benefit of all that money cycling through businesses that need cash flow.
But I do sympathise with individual decision to cut back, with a huge number of businesses needing to reduce staff and employees wanting savings as "insurance policies".
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The only problem is that even if interest payments are zero the borrowing has to be paid back, we have been living beyond our means for years and it sooner or later will end badly. People get used to a certain spending pattern and buying new things all the time even if they dont really need it, when they have less money they still want things so they buy cheaper versions, that loses us british jobs as we import cheap chinese rubbish it becomes a vicious circle
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thefatcontroller wrote: |
....Told my 3 kids not to bother with pensions as they will be working till they are 90 to pay this one off. |
Just not in manufacturing, I guess
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You know it makes sense.
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Layne wrote: |
Eurotunnel booked - out Friday evening Dec 18th, back Sunday morning Dec 27th.
Booked same crossings on equivalent dates (20th and 29th respectively) last year. Price comparison:
Outbound: 2019 - £86 / 2020 - £105
Inbound: 2019 - £74 / 2020 - £76
Total: 2019 - £150 / 2020 - £181
Note: Booked 10th August last year as opposed to 8th June this.
For a further comparison we booked a few days before for an April trip in 2019 and paid £109 and £94 respectively.
All bar £1 of the cost today was covered using Tesco Clubcard vouchers - which with no April trip this year had built up a bit.
Conclusion: Maybe a bit of extra demand for the Friday but prices are holding reasonably at this point considering a lot of people on here are saying they are going to be driving next season. |
Eurotunnel now offering a third ticket type called "Standard Refundable" - which means you can claim a refund anytime up to the crossing time.
For prices comparison my outbound above the Standard price is now £110 and the Standard Refundable is £150.
The Inbound is still at £76 for Standard and the Standard Refundable is the same.
It's interesting Standard prices haven't increased a great deal since June. And for £40 you can effectively insure against having to cancel.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@robs1 'we have been living beyond our means for years ...'
I don't really know what this means, albeit it's a great one-liner, beloved of the ruling elite as a a reprimand to the feckless masses who don't have the benefit of inherited wealth and access to offshore funds. Or people from my generation, who benefited from effectively free further education, cheap house prices, a mortgage that was only 2½-times their salary as opposed to 8+ times, and who now have a triple-lock State Pension. Yeah, living within my means was easy for me with all these advantages - not so much for younger generations, especially after a decade of Austerity.
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Poster: A snowHead
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How many actually went to further education as opposed to going straight to work, student loans only get paid back when they earn enough, few of our generation went abroad as kids , didnt have mobile phones, new cars on tick in their early twenties etc etc. Yes houses are dearer but few make an effort to save, some do, I have just sold a two bed house to a 26 year old girl who works in a supermarket on not much more than minimum wage, she has had no help from her parents but had 40 grand as a deposit which she had saved up apart from 5 grand from her grandad a few years ago.
Ask those who left school in the winter of discontent or the 80's and see how easy it was then
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@robs1, The minimum wage for someone over the age of 25 is £8.72/hour. You say that this person earns just more than minimum wage, let’s say £10/hour. Working a 37.5 hour week that equates to £19,500/year. The most the banks will lend you is around is 4.5 times your salary but for someone on less than 20k per year they are unlikely to go above 4 times their salary. That means that she could probably borrow a maximum of £78,000. Add that to her 40k deposit and you get £118,000. What percentage of the country can you buy a livable house for that sum? Nowhere in the South of England and no major city. Some isolated backwaters sure. And if you’re on 20k then you can’t be buying a wreck as you are not going to have the funds to do it up.
Also, you say that she had help no from her parents. However, I think that it is a fair assumption that she is living at her parent’s home and paying nothing like market rates for rent/board to manage to save 35k while on just above minimum wage which is a substantial form of help.
Basically, the situation that you describe is not representative of the situation that most people find themselves in and I would be sceptical about even taking your account at face value.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@rambotion, you can buy 3 bedroomed houses for under £100k in many towns and cities.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It is intersting how owner occupancy has increased over the years. I found this quote from https://www.lsllandandnewhomes.co.uk/blog/how-housing-in-england-has-changed-since-the-1960s. SO in 2019 they reported.
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Fifty years ago more than half (51%) of the English housing stock was owner occupied, 29% was rented in the social rented sector and 20% was privately rented.
Fifty years later, 63% of the stock was owner occupied, 17% was in the social rented sector and 20.1% was privately rented.
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Though I cannot lay my hands on the source I beleive that Owner/Occupiers were somewhere around 40% in the 1950's. When I was young I knew almost no one who owned their own home. Everyone rented, usually from the council or the NCB
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the interesting fact I take from those stats is the private sector rent has remained stable, as nearly everyone I work with has at least 1 B2L flat (not me never wanted that hassle).
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Returning to the title of this thread which has drifted ever so slightly: no, not yet. But I did make a small bet on Canada opening up, as I bought a 5 day pass at Whistler.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rambotion wrote: |
@robs1, The minimum wage for someone over the age of 25 is £8.72/hour. You say that this person earns just more than minimum wage, let’s say £10/hour. Working a 37.5 hour week that equates to £19,500/year. The most the banks will lend you is around is 4.5 times your salary but for someone on less than 20k per year they are unlikely to go above 4 times their salary. That means that she could probably borrow a maximum of £78,000. Add that to her 40k deposit and you get £118,000. What percentage of the country can you buy a livable house for that sum? Nowhere in the South of England and no major city. Some isolated backwaters sure. And if you’re on 20k then you can’t be buying a wreck as you are not going to have the funds to do it up.
Also, you say that she had help no from her parents. However, I think that it is a fair assumption that she is living at her parent’s home and paying nothing like market rates for rent/board to manage to save 35k while on just above minimum wage which is a substantial form of help.
Basically, the situation that you describe is not representative of the situation that most people find themselves in and I would be sceptical about even taking your account at face value. |
She has another person on the mortgage to get it but he is a friend and not contributing to the payments. She will have a lodger which will almost cover it, it can be done as she shows, just need to make some sacrifice
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queenie pretty please wrote: |
@rambotion, you can buy 3 bedroomed houses for under £100k in many towns and cities. |
Yes and she bought a 2 bed. Just looked on Rightmove for Wiltshire (I assume that's where it was bought) and you can easily buy sub £100k. And good luck to her.
It wasn't exactly easy getting on the ladder back when I started over 40 years ago. For one thing the historical average interest rate was 12%, interest only didn't exist, and at one point after leaving the ERM mine jumped briefly to close to 20% - but nothing we could do about it as nearly everyone was locked in negative equity.
Does make me laugh when people talk about '10 years of austerity' while parked in their leased Ford Focus outside the McDonalds Drive-thru, swiping away at their iPhone 11, looking at their £9k a year university timetable (which they'll only have to pay back if they earn enough), while moaning about the environment. They have absolutely no clue. In 1976 (under Labour) the UK even required an IMF loan to keep the lights on and that's not that long ago. Although that Government did its best with very limited rescouces, I can remember some kids at school who lived in abject poverty. You know, proper austerity.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I think it's good that you know young people who are focused and hard-working and have managed, against the odds, to save money to get on the home buying ladder. I know similar young people. What I don't like is writing off an entire generation as deficient and feckless because they have not.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I dont think anyone is writing off any generation, but pointing out life wasnt a bed of Roses years ago.
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@robs1, Ok, so I was right to be sceptical because the situation is not as you described. She has bought part of a house as she and her friend are either tenants in common, or joint tenants, both of which give the friend a share of the house. Finding a friend to do this is going to be very difficult as if they already own a property then they will have to pay the stamp duty rate associated with second homes on their share of the house and if they don’t already own a home then they will lose their right to zero stamp duty on their first home. They are also jointly responsible for keeping up repayments on the house. Friends like that have got to be rarer than hen’s teeth. What does the friend get from their side of the bargain?
The next issue is that by accepting lodgers she is almost certainly breaking the terms of her mortgage, almost no lenders allow lodgers as they are worried that when if they need to reposses then the lodgers will have acquired rights to stay in the property or it will be difficult to get rid of them. Plenty of people break this rule, I have in the past, but its pretty stupid to be taking out a mortgage where the only way that you can make the repayments is by breaking the terms.
So this whole ‘no help’ thing is a lie. Her friend is giving her a huge help for no stated reason and from the sounds of it she still needs to break the terms of her mortgage. And she presumably still doesn’t even own the whole house!!
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You know it makes sense.
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rambotion wrote: |
@robs1, Ok, so I was right to be sceptical because the situation is not as you described. She has bought part of a house as she and her friend are either tenants in common, or joint tenants, both of which give the friend a share of the house. Finding a friend to do this is going to be very difficult as if they already own a property then they will have to pay the stamp duty rate associated with second homes on their share of the house and if they don’t already own a home then they will lose their right to zero stamp duty on their first home. They are also jointly responsible for keeping up repayments on the house. Friends like that have got to be rarer than hen’s teeth. What does the friend get from their side of the bargain?
The next issue is that by accepting lodgers she is almost certainly breaking the terms of her mortgage, almost no lenders allow lodgers as they are worried that when if they need to reposses then the lodgers will have acquired rights to stay in the property or it will be difficult to get rid of them. Plenty of people break this rule, I have in the past, but its pretty stupid to be taking out a mortgage where the only way that you can make the repayments is by breaking the terms.
So this whole ‘no help’ thing is a lie. Her friend is giving her a huge help for no stated reason and from the sounds of it she still needs to break the terms of her mortgage. And she presumably still doesn’t even own the whole house!! |
No read what I said, her friend is going on the mortgage as she needed more joint income to obtain it, he will have no financial input into paying the mortgage as the lodger will be paying her for his room while they in law will be tenants in common his percentage is 1% as it cant be any lower.
You can easily have lodgers they just have to sign a proper agreement which she has done, the mortgage company are fully aware of the situation.
Some people can do things for others without wanting anything in return.
The mortgage will be redone in five years by which time she should have a better paid job, although her income might not be much different but will just do less overtime which the mortgage company wont take into a count as it's not guaranteed .
Those who want things can often find away, far better than moaning how hard life is.
I fort one applaud her for her efforts to get on.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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While no doubt interesting to some, perhaps this sort of discussion belongs in a different thread, rather than this one about booking skiing holidays?
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Poster: A snowHead
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denfinella wrote: |
While no doubt interesting to some, perhaps this sort of discussion belongs in a different thread, rather than this one about booking skiing holidays? |
Yes, official thread drift call....back to skiing related please. Twitter is there for this shoite....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@robs1, that all sounds pretty dodgy to be honest on many counts. I wasn't questioning you selling the house just the circumstances of the buyer. And I was right. Anyhow it's all off topic so I won't comment further on it.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Layne wrote: |
@robs1, that all sounds pretty dodgy to be honest on many counts. I wasn't questioning you selling the house just the circumstances of the buyer. And I was right. Anyhow it's all off topic so I won't comment further on it. |
Nothing dodgy about it at all mortgage company know all the facts and are perfectly happy.
The girls dad and I were born next to each other in hospital, I have known the girl all her life they are a church going straight as an arrow family.
Last post on this from me
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I'm starting to think.....if we don't go at Christmas (which we've never, ever done before) then we might not have a family ski holiday this season (Covid + Brexit = Bust). So taking it one day at a time unfortunately.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kettonskimum wrote: |
I'm starting to think.....if we don't go at Christmas (which we've never, ever done before) then we might not have a family ski holiday this season (Covid + Brexit = Bust). So taking it one day at a time unfortunately. |
We have got Christmas booked but also flights booked for second week of easter holidays in the hope that things have sorted themselves out a bit...
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We got burnt a bit this year....decided to go for Easter ski hol over Feb half term - who would have thought!!!! I'm a real planner but I've thrown most of the towel in. If there's lots of snow/availability/no quarantine at Christmas then we'll go - but very last minute drive down (we normally drive). But if this doesn't happen then we'll keep our fingers crossed for Easter hols.....as Easter is a bit earlier in 2021 we'd originally decide to avoid Feb half term.
My gut feeling is the mix of Covid and Brexit will make for an unpleasant confusion of rules let alone God awful exchange rate. I'm not sure I'd want to have a school holiday ski holiday with social distanced lift queues.
And I'm 50 in March 2021 - maybe pull the kids out of school for a ski week if it pans out - what the heck with fines....I worked my butt off home schooling and working for months and the kids could be back to home schooling at any point in the next few months!
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Layne wrote: |
@robs1, that all sounds pretty dodgy to be honest on many counts. I wasn't questioning you selling the house just the circumstances of the buyer. And I was right. Anyhow it's all off topic so I won't comment further on it. |
Nope, its perfectly legal.
Obv. Gets messy if one wants to sell _ the other does not.
Imhave properties of my own, i have properties shared with my siblings & one sibling also has his own properties as well as properties with mate who does the renovation work. Both siblings have more properties or shares in properties than I do, but they do it full time, while its a side interest for me.
Its really no different to shared ownership schemes, etc.
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Just got annual passes so I’m committed. I’ve been meaning to get family randonee gear for a while. This maybe the year to do that as a backup in case the lift system gets shut down. I guess permission to travel is another joker factor too.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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From the Times - likelihood of ski holidays in each country
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/where-can-i-ski-this-winter-tv9vcvd5q?shareToken=5861d05ad527ab7df5e9598a74357936&fbclid=IwAR1WsgiOcZBg2mVrSjP8Saq5B33q-mBbBNBkir_hsW3H6uTYIZ48n0dLICs
Austria 2/5 ??
It’s the question on every snow fiend’s lips as summer fades and the first flurries of autumn dust the Alps: “Where can we ski this winter?” Now is the time that many of us would normally be booking our next trip. But with Covid-19 infection rates surging and the stop-go quarantine system playing havoc with confidence, there’s plenty of uncertainty.
Austria
Austria’s ski preparations are in full swing, and the country’s resorts are counting on German tourists for a decent winter. Sadly, however, its infection rate continued to rise last week. It’s not as high as in France, but still well above the UK’s cut-off point for quarantine-free travel. Can the country wrestle it back down before winter, then keep it low as the skiers flood in? They’ll certainly try. Expect après-ski partying to be curtailed, though, as the resorts strive to keep the lifts spinning.
Likelihood: 2/5
France
Buoyed by a staycation boom, French mountain resorts had an excellent August, and are pressing ahead with plans for winter. But unless the country’s high infection rate is drastically cut — or the UK changes its quarantine criteria — they won’t see many Brits, at the start of the season at least. That’s bad news for fans of the catered chalet holiday — France is where most of them are based, and companies have already pruned their stock (or, in the case of Crystal Ski, dumped it completely). Bear in mind, however, that it is nearly five months until February half-term. By then, the second wave may be behind us.
Likelihood: 1.5/5
Finland
Finland’s infection rate is one of Europe’s lowest, and it will have new testing-based entry regulations from November 23. Whatever the infection rate back home, EU or UK travellers will be able to visit Finland for less than 72 hours without quarantine provided they show a negative Covid-19 test result on arrival. OK, so you’ll be skiing on hills that are mere pimples compared with the Alps, but in Lapland you can at least be fairly sure of snow. The news only broke last week, and no one has stepped forward yet to offer short breaks. Watch this space.
Likelihood: 4/5
Sweden
Sweden has trodden a different path through the pandemic. There was no lockdown, and there’s been no second wave, either, so make a note of its two most high-profile resorts for future reference: Are and Salen. The former is home to a cracking, black-rated World Cup race track and some of Europe’s best night skiing. Salen has its own airport and is good for families. With Ski Safari, a week in the latter starts at £599pp, self-catering, based on a family of four sharing.
Likelihood: 4/5
Italy
The recent rise in Italy’s rate of infections seems to have stalled, so the country remains the best hope for a “normal” holiday in a big Alpine ski area. And you are spoilt for choice: snowsure, high-altitude piste-bashing in Cervinia, heli-skiing in Alagna and the spectacular intermediate pistes of the Dolomites are among Italy’s highlights. With Crystal, one week in Campitello in the Dolomites starts from £539pp, half-board, including flights and transfers.
Likelihood: 3/5
Slovakia
After a recent investment of £180 million, Jasna, in the Tatra Mountains, is Slovakia’s big draw. With an excellent ski school and some fine piste skiing for mum and dad, it works well for families. What’s more, in contrast to the neighbouring Czech Republic, Slovakia has so far avoided a significant second wave of infections. The drawback is the lack of Atol-bonded packages available, so book at the last minute. Flights to Poprad with Wizz Air start at £70. A week’s chalet accommodation with Jasna Adventures starts at £480pp, B&B, for four, including equipment hire and transfers.
Likelihood: 4/5
Germany
Yes, we know — not exactly a skiing heartland. But those in the know eulogise about Germany’s irresistible scenery and abundance of pistes for intermediates — particularly in the underrated Garmisch-Partenkirchen region, in the shadow of the towering Zugspitze. Momentum can tailor-make a short break, which is the best way to ski it — from £485pp, B&B, including flights and hire car.
Likelihood: 4/5
Scotland
Could this finally be Scotland’s winter? The weather is notoriously . . . well, notorious. But when conditions are right, skiing north of the border is a magical experience, and never more so than when you put on a pair of touring skis and go skinning up into the Cairngorms. This winter Glenmore Lodge, near Aviemore, offers five-day introductions from £750pp, full board, including guiding and equipment hire — the ultimate sloping-off staycation.
Likelihood: 5/5
Poland
On the northern side of the Tatra Mountains, Zakopane is Poland’s ski hub — and its small, beginner-friendly areas are a godsend for families. Here too there is a shortage of package holidays, but at least everything else is included when you book a break with White Side Holidays. One week from £489pp, B&B, including transfers, lessons, lift pass and ski hire. Flights to Krakow with Easyjet start at £47 return.
Likelihood: 4/5
Bulgaria
Bulgaria seems to be an anomaly — despite having an infection rate lower than that of Slovakia and a level of coronavirus testing that’s broadly similar, it languishes on the UK’s quarantine list. So it may re-emerge as a ski destination this autumn, with its low prices a considerable attraction. At beginner and intermediate-friendly Bansko, for example, a week starts at £336pp, half-board, including flights and transfers with Balkan Holidays.
Likelihood: 3/5
Slovenia
Slovenia, sadly, seems to be heading the wrong way in terms of infection rates, and last Thursday was added to the UK’s quarantine list. Kranjska Gora is its pin-up resort. Backed by the crinkly, snow-frosted Julian Alps, it’s an inspiring place to make your first turns, courtesy of broad, beginner-friendly pistes. Inghams has a week there from £675pp, half-board, including flights and transfers.
Likelihood: 3/5
And the rest . . .
Switzerland, the United States and Canada are some of the biggest names in skiing, but at present they are being kept at arm’s length for Britons by various travel restrictions. Don’t despair, though — it’s a long time until the second half of the season. By then infection levels may well be lower again — or a more nuanced, integrated, rational approach to international travel based around regionality and accessible testing may have been introduced by the government. Optimistic, I know, but then what snow fiend isn’t.
Likelihood: 1/5
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the ultimate sloping-off staycation.
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If you go to Scotland skiing it's not a staycation - it's a holiday
A staycation is staying at home
Sorry pet peeve
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