 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Alans deep bath, Coastal Mountains shorely?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
12z GFS brings colder weather and snow to the Alps from 02/03 December. The operational wasn't as cold as some recent runs and was close to being an outlier towards the end of the run. The mean was a little cooler, the control was a lot colder.
Scotland could see some snow in the mountains tomorrow, but with some stormy weather hitting over the weekend temperatures look like fluctuating considerably.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Hells Bells wrote: |
| Alans deep bath, it did that the year we had booked to go. And then the Pineapple express arrived and spoilt most of it. Still plenty of snow, but not quite what we'd expected, and so damp. |
....... but that's not going to happen this year is it hells? Of course not, because I'm heading to Banff this year. It's going to keep puking all the way till late Feb.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Arno, that too. Dumping at KH/LL and Kimberly got a ton (as far as the Rockies are concerned it's loads).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| paulio wrote: |
Also, mrs paulio - who doesn't pay any attention at all to weather forecasts, or any of this GFS witchcraft, or look at webcams, or anything - sent me an IM this morning that said "I can feel snow in the air".
And that's good enough for me. |
Genius... can we get her on telly? Maybe just a short youtube slot each week predicting the weather by the power of smell! I'd watch it, beats X-factor any day of the week! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
He has excelled at attracting media coverage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
letelemarker,
James Madden is one confident, attention loving, armaggedonistic(?), sensationalist long range weather forecaster......
But boy, would i love him to be right!!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
well, i dont think the daily express is every right, I read in june that it was going to be a record breaking hot summer, then in October a Siberian winter...so on that basis we are in for a shite mild winter!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Good piece by Joel Gratz which shows the above average snowfall so far in the Pacific North West with much of the rest of the west about average or perhaps a bit below.
And the winner is...
An equivalent map of the Alps would look less pretty.
Here are a few readings from weather stations around the Alps (actual rainfall/average rainfall)
Bregenz last 30 days precipitation. (1.4mm/87.5mm)
Zell am See last 30 days precipitation.(3.0mm/87.9mm)
Geneva last 30 days precipitation. (24.7mm/78.6mm)
Sion last 30 days precipitation.(0.2mm/50.5mm)
Bourg St Maurice last 30 days precipitation. (2.4mm/80.2mm)
Clearly far, far below normal for the time of year. Does an exceptionally dry Autumn automatically mean an exceptionally dry Winter? I don't think so. It may be (and there has been some suggestion in a number of long range models of a drier than average winter, which as ever I wouldn't take that seriously), but I don't believe that one necessarily follows the other.
Shorter term the 10 day precipitation outlook for Europe is interesting in terms of the next week (basically bone dry over the Alps) and the week after (a lot wetter). The map is based on the 12z GFS (and obviously by the time you get to the second week is very subject to change).
The 18z GFS gets snow arriving into the Southern French Alps, North West Italy and parts of Southern Switzerland by 01 December. Then across the Alps from 03 to 06 December. The operational run then goes off on its own a bit in FI.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Please be right...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Met Office are forecasting heavy snow and blizzards in the Scottish Highlands for Friday, slight warm up Saturday and then more Sunday and into next week with some milder interludes - certainly getting more interesting now! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Here's the 00z GFS meteogram for Alpe D'Huez which shows about 15cm+ of snow arriving on 01 December with a freezing level around 1400m.
And the 00z GFS meteogram for Zermatt/Monterosa which shows about 40cm+ of snow arriving on 01 December (with some on 30 November) with a freezing level around 1700m.
At that range details are likely to shift around.
From the 00z GFS snow arrives in the Eastern Alps a few days later.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
ECM continues to be in broad agreement about a breakdown in the pattern at the start of the month. Indeed by 05 December on the 00z run introduces considerably colder air across much of Europe.
Digging a little deeper into the 00z GFS operational (because of a comment I saw elsewhere) it would see quite a bit of snow hitting western Austria on 04 December above 2000m rapidly dropping to 1200m by 05 December and continuing through 07 December. A brief milder interlude before cold and snow return on 09 December. I doubt it will happen quite like that, but if it did it wouldn't be all bad...
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
brian, hello again, and that looks like a cool app. iPhone version please...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
brian, blackberry version app please ....
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
brian, welcome back, off to install onto my shiny new Android phone 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| rob@rar wrote: |
| brian, hello again, and that looks like a cool app. iPhone version please... |
+1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MoodyFFS wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| brian, hello again, and that looks like a cool app. iPhone version please... |
+1 |
+1, or should that be +2.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
If anyone wants to send me an iphone I'll be quite happy to download their SDK and give it a try. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
brian, Apple being apple charge you for the SDK don't they 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The SDK comes with a simulator. Buy Mac OS X Snow Leopard off eBay for 20 quid. Install it in Virtualbox.
You can do 95% of iOS development with that set up, for 20 quid. Right at the end of development you'd need to test on-device, but you could do that just by having iPhone owning mates over for a couple of beers.
(Off topic, sorry).
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
iOS 5 SDK is a fiver or so off the Mac App Store. The previous version is a free download I believe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
kitenski, it's only a few quid for the SDK but I think they charge $100/year to put anything in the app store.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Was gonna say, I thought it was more like $100.
I'll take free. Will play with the Android thingy tonight
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
brian, ah, knew there was a charge somewhere!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
My point being that you develop it for less than the price of the cheapest oldest second-hand handset you can find, and only decide whether to pay the cost of App Store submission right at the end, when you might have more of an idea whether you can monetize it enough to recoup that cost.
App Store apps tend to sell in bigger volumes than Android Marketplace applications, so...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| MoodyFFS wrote: |
| paulio wrote: |
Also, mrs paulio - who doesn't pay any attention at all to weather forecasts, or any of this GFS witchcraft, or look at webcams, or anything - sent me an IM this morning that said "I can feel snow in the air".
And that's good enough for me. |
Genius... can we get her on telly? Maybe just a short youtube slot each week predicting the weather by the power of smell! I'd watch it, beats X-factor any day of the week! |
I think there is an inter web expression. This Thread Is Worthless Without Pictures.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Ouch, 12z GFS is a horror show. Will ECM offer us some hope?
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
Hmm, curious, the GFS op is a big outlier from its own ensemble. Hopefully it's just wrong rather than picking up subtle changes ... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| brian wrote: |
| Hmm, curious, the GFS op is a big outlier from its own ensemble. Hopefully it's just wrong rather than picking up subtle changes ... |
when will you know and post it ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
brian, Hello 
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Chris Brookes, in a week or so when white flaky things are or aren't falling from the sky.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12z GFS has flat-lined into mid Dec - let's hope that's a rogue run
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
red 27, it is a complete outlier as Brian said above. Despite operational outliers in the 06z and 12z GFS runs the ensembles are colder than the previous day's.
ECM 12z is having nothing to do with it.
EDIT: good to have you back Brian, you've been busy inventing in the shed over summer. App looks good.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 25-11-11 20:13; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Noza. Why are you not a the bash for live weather reports ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
