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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@hughbedo, warm temperatures forecast before the 5th December. And also not that much precipitation except for the far northern Alps, where the resorts may be too low for much of it to be snow anyway.

So there "may" indeed be some good skiing (in fact it is likely), but not as a result of the chart above, and you will probably need to aim high. I.e. probably the same Austrian areas that are offering decent skiing already. Ischgl, Obergurgl, Solden...

It's really from 6th December onwards when it might get interesting for lower altitudes.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Obergurgl and Hochgurgl are 2 hours from Munich Flughaven. High enough and very quiet. Solden goes to 3200m I think. The upper parts of that should hold good snow.The lower reaches of Solden are at 1350 meters I think and will be rain or temperature affected. Razz
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@hughbedo, drive down to Ischgl. You’ll have a great time.
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Sölden weather forecast

1350m
https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/wetter/

3340m
https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/wetter/berg/


The freezing level on the warmest day (wed) is 1560m so most of the snow should remain intact.
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@DB, that's not what I am seeing....per ECM / Bergfex link you posted, sunday has the highest snowline at 1990m, which is a FL of about 2300m.
The heaviest snow is due Monday, and the FL looks around 2000m.



On GFS it's even higher though, mon-tues sees the FL bounce around between 1900m and 2600m during the heaviest precipitation (Solden area).

Of course the models may be wrong by several hundred meters, but that's what they're showing right now.
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Thanks all. Flights are booked to Zurich for weekend on 13th. Picked up a good “deal” on accommodation in Ischgl which we have today to respond to if we want to secure it. Just trying to balance out all the variables of weather, available pistes (off piste doesn’t interest us) and accommodation costs rising if we end up there anyway based on how things are going. Thanks again.
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@Redial, Ischgl is probably a good shout, high and lots of snow cannons and appear to have a fair few lifts running already.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Wind might be an issue later next wind ?
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@polo,
I should have written snowline and not freezing level but even if it rains up to 2000m most of it will be OK as the runs that are now open are mostly (if not all) above 2000m.

https://www.soelden.com/de/winter/skigebiet/informationen-zum-skigebiet.html
https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/panorama/
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@polo, out of interest, in the Bergfex image you posted above, there is no "fresh snow" showing on Monday? And yet there is 12L/m2 of rain, and a snow line of 1,740m. Why would they not show an amount of snow? Thanks.
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@Poogle, it's split between mountain and valley, so for monday it shows 16cm snow at the top of the resort and none in the valley. One mans snow is another mans reservoir top up.
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@Poogle,
Below 1740m it will rain whereas at 3340m they expect 16cm of fresh snow on Monday.
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Next weekend could be the big dump for French Alps! 1m-1.5m+
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Saw this on Chamonix meteo - Resuming Big Unsettled Westerly Flow will drive new disturbance passing on Sunday and Monday, which should trigger fairly heavy precipitation at times, yet in noticeably milder atmosphere than seasonal average making snow unlikely below 2000 m. This humid, often mild and windy Atlantic Trend might be persisting until mid-December - grrr, just need the temp to drop by a few degrees to drop the rain/snow limit and I'd be laughing.
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California getting puked on.

Around 100-200cm due in Squaw, etc. today and in next few days.

Japan also got some fresh, around Niseko.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Cheesie168 wrote:
Saw this on Chamonix meteo - Resuming Big Unsettled Westerly Flow will drive new disturbance passing on Sunday and Monday, which should trigger fairly heavy precipitation at times, yet in noticeably milder atmosphere than seasonal average making snow unlikely below 2000 m. This humid, often mild and windy Atlantic Trend might be persisting until mid-December - grrr, just need the temp to drop by a few degrees to drop the rain/snow limit and I'd be laughing.


Hopefully it drops in temp soon! Am due there in new year with two newbies (probably not the best resort I know) and hoping for decent snow
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polo wrote:
@Poogle, it's split between mountain and valley, so for monday it shows 16cm snow at the top of the resort and none in the valley. One mans snow is another mans reservoir top up.


Ah yes! Many thanks.
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Whitegold wrote:
California getting puked on.

do.


Its only puke if theres carrots in there
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Love me some winter weather advisories! Toofy Grin Be safe out there folks!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1222 PM PST Fri Nov 30 2018

...Moderate to heavy snow at times expected for the Oregon
Cascades, Central Oregon, and the Ochoco John Day Highlands
Friday Evening through Saturday afternoon...

ORZ509-011500-
/O.CON.KPDT.WW.Y.0021.181130T2300Z-181202T0200Z/
East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades-

1222 PM PST Fri Nov 30 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 PM PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches
along the east slopes, with 7 to 12 inches near the crest.
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Looking good above 2000m. Go high or go home...
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hughbedo wrote:

So the way I would read that, if I had a meeting finishing in Munich on the 5th of December, there may be good conditions somewhere in Austria a few hours drive away after it ends?

I ask, 'cos if I was to sell it to my workmates I would want to know I was reading it right.


You would need to go high and to the western end of Austria, as what's coming in the next few days is from the West and it's mild, so there will likely be rain lower down.
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@BobinCH, yep. Though temperatures still look like falling steeply in a weeks time.
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@nozawaonsen, a nice layer of cold smoke would be the cherry on top. This humid precip will already be great for the base up high. Just what the doctor ordered for the off piste oriented!
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7 INCHES of rain at 1500m in France and +12 at 1000m. Is this normal?
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@mancski, it’s not that unusual in itself.
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Warmer than normal for the time of year - but not unheard of...But it WILL cool down at some point.
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....reminds me of last January. NW alps looking at 100-150 ml sun-mon, rainline at 2300m, and windy.
Makes a change though, and considering how dry and settled it's been since March, this is just a small step back towards normal. Temps due to peak thursday at +10c and quickly drop below zero for next weekend.

Despite recent modest snowfalls, the rivers are still incredibly low, so we need every drop. And in fantasy land charts like this are still popping up.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
mancski wrote:
7 INCHES of rain at 1500m in France and +12 at 1000m. Is this normal?


Rain is becoming a regular part of every new winter season in Europe.

Boiling summers and scorching falls are melting glaciers and trapping heat in the mountains and consequently warming up the early winters.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Whitegold, rain in the Alps in early December is not unusual. Suggesting it is is misleading.

Climate change is a serious issue. But hyperbole, trolling and scaremongering are not sensible ways of responding.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@Whitegold, yep terrible conditions for December 1st!

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Cold and snow arriving next weekend on 12z GFS, particularly for the northern side of the Alps.



As the jet switches to come in from the NW.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Whitegold rain in the Alps in early December is not unusual.

How unusual was it 10 years ago? 30? 70? Genuinely asking.
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@südtirolistdeutsch, we are talking about the start of December. Certainly in the last 20-30 years we have often had mild starts to December.

Although I should note that there is snow on the streets of Vienna tonight which is also uncommon for 01 December, but nor does it mean we have entered a mini ice age.

But individual events whether that is rain in Chamonix or snow in Vienna are not really the point. More meaningful may be the broad trend towards warmer weather over recent seasons combined with an increase in more extreme events.

Discussion of climate change often triggers some fairly strong responses so by and large I try to avoid it on this thread. If someone wants to kick off a thread on climate change then by all means do. It’s a subject that deserves a degree of seriousness that it does not always attract. And tends to generate a fairly fractious amount of argument, hence my preference to avoid mixing it with a weather thread (and that’s before one considers the behaviour of certain posters who seem to want to just mislead and upset people, one can only assume some rather sad motivations on their part).

Meanwhile both GFS and ECM supporting a switch to much colder than average temperatures from next weekend.






And to digress slightly this post on Utah weather provides some interesting food for thought.

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2018/11/is-our-recent-spate-of-bad-novembers.html?m=1
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@südtirolistdeutsch,
Quote:

How unusual was it 10 years ago? 30? 70? Genuinely asking.

I don't know about 70 years ago but I certainly remember going to Austria in the early 90's and finding grassy lower slopes in January. Switched to France for quite a long time as a result
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1995. Just before Christmas. Nothing off the Glaciers in the Espace Killy. Far worse than this year. Was mainly a lack of precipitation rather than a lot of rain.
Snowing quite heavily in Tignes as I type.
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Cold temperatures in second week of December on ECM 00z.

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After spending the last 30 yrs skiing in the same area many times a season and being quite anal about conditions and weather in the run up to trips . I feel confident with this view .
Rain in December not at all unusual , remember a whole weekend house hunting in the rain the early 2000’s .
My overriding generalised view is that the milder periods seem milder with the rain level creeping higher over the last two decades , i’ve never seen so much rain or snow in one week as I did last NY . It’s also been a few years since a prolonged period of cold air , temp doesn’t go above -10 for a week and the kids can’t go out till late morning . All of this concours with the experts view of global warming on the alps , shorter seasons etc .

As aside The Weather outlook winter forecast for Britain is out from Brian Gaze , a forecaster I respect and not in the Express mode for extreme forecasting .
Going for colder than average but mild start , more blocking trend . Link below

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast
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@Rob Mackley, actually whilst not to take away from your broader comments you don’t have to go that far back for an extended cold period. January 2017 was one of the coldest months for thirty years.

https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/einer-der-zwei-kaeltesten-jaenner-monate-seit-30-jahren
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The big change came from the late 1980s. The twenty years prior to that saw much more reliable snow conditions across Europe.
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