 Poster: A snowHead
|
nozawaonsen,
Any chance it can be the 2nd so I win fantasy snow comp!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| stevomcd wrote: |
| Timmaah, unlikely to have a temperature inversion and snowy weather at the same time. An inversion requires calm, stable weather. |
But does it not take quite some time for warm(4-6C) ground to become frozen?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Top level of ground cools very quickly unlike water.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Reading the news reports and threads like this I get the impression there is widespread worry, its as if its the end of the world... No snow yet... Uh, its November!?
Snow arrives early season Late Nov / Early Dec. Hardly worrying times is it? Seems very wierd a lot of resorts wasting plenty of effort and energy in trying to make snow and force resorts to open... there's still 3 weeks till the season really gets going, what's all the worry? It takes a couple of days of snow for the cams to go white and traditionally snow falls late Nov / early Dec. Correct me if I'm wrong, but we've only just entered this time-scale....
Even so, been enjoying this thread, learnt a fair bit about how to read the weather patterns and its quite interesting, even though they are never correct!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
junglist_matty, there's a large group (120+) of people from snowHeads heading out this weekend, plus more people heading out in the next couple of weeks, so perfectly understandable to be concerned with how good the early season snow is.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| junglist_matty wrote: |
| Snow arrives early season Late Nov / Early Dec. |
The wigglies for the next 10 days are looking very flat...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
junglist_matty, I think you need to be careful in terms of what you are looking for. Each run is not a little forecast in itself. Short term, up to about five days you might be able to use them to provide a forecast, longer term they can and do change dramatically from run to run. Changing means uncertainty (the normal outlook beyond five to seven days), consistency suggests a trend of higher or lower confidence.
I'd suggest that the point here is that it is simply not possible to predict with any real accuracy the weather beyond five to seven days. So what the further reaches of the run (or FI) may show you is a trend, but firstly you need to see it repeated and then to build confidence you need it to pick up support from different ensembles and across different models.
So the way I see it the "forecast" that the models have been consistently and correctly picking up is short term a trend for dry and milder than normal temperatures, longer term a trend towards continuing this pattern, but a great deal of uncertainty with occasional suggestions the pattern might change, but nothing you would so far have much confidence in (because despite hints of a pattern change they have never been consistent).
In terms of people worrying of course if you are skiing from mid December onwards I'd say it's rather premature, the further we get into winter the more likely cold and snow are likely to arrive (it's winter after all). That said there's no guarantee.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Just to build on what nozawaonsen just wrote, you could think of the ongoing chances of deducing the odds of a certain weather type occurring from say the GFS model in the same way as extracting numerical trends from rolling a 20-sided dice which is newly weighted every 6 hours. On monday, I wrote ...
"the best case on the 18Z ensemble output seems to be less than 25% for snowfall in the Alps on Saturday but if that happens, the levee will certainly have broken. If not, then dry and mild for the next 10 days or so seems most likely."
... because then, there were exactly 5 runs out of 22 bringing a Saturday breakdown. Those early unsettled runs had all gone by yesterday and instead, the ensemble output was instead one of unanimous agreement for maintaining that high pressure and nil precipitation until the 1st December after which there was a grouping of more than 10 in favour of a breakdown soon after.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
rob@rar Fair enough regarding your worry of the snow. However, with the European season (in terms of weather) rarely really getting under-way till the new year, anything this side of the new year is a gamble... Especially if you've booked as early as late Nov, Early Dec (I wouldn't ever book that early unless guaranteed snow and a last minute whim).... Saying that, this year I'm going to Argentiere on 17th Dec, if there's snow there's snow, if not, at least Chamonix has a lot going on.... Have no choice for that week as wanted to go with the girlfriend and she is a teacher so haven't got much choice when it comes to dates  Although I'll be going somewhere in March with friends for guaranteed snow 
nozawaonsenYou've been doing a great job updating the weather and giving good descriptions and I've enjoyed reading this thread on a daily basis.... I fully understand that anything out of a few days is a vague possibility. The typical trend being that this side of NYE everything starts to cool, sometimes there's early snow, sometimes there's not. Either way, I'd be worried if there still had been no snow by this time next month, hardly worried at this time of year, its normal.
By the way, my initial point was more-so about the "over the top" media sensation that surrounds this time of year; sometimes it snows early, sometimes it doesn't. It's not abnormal for there to be no snow at the end of November and with no accurate weather forecasts past a few days who knows what will happen, yet the "hype" surrounding the "there's no snow" seems way over the top..... Probably because more and more people are skiing and they expect snow all season from lift opening date to lift closing date, in reality this doesn't always happen (especially in recent years).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
junglist_matty, my (glacier) season started this year mid-October, and I've frequently skied late November/early December with plenty of snow. Last season the snow early & mid December was probably the best of the season for many resorts in the Western Alps, including a day of knee-deep champagne-light powder!
Mostly it snows at this time of year; it's only occasionally that it doesn't.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
junglist_matty, i'm a bit of a newbie here so might get a few things wrong. I don't think I agree with you completely on when the season gets going.
We rent out an apartment in Val Thorens and the first 2 weeks to go and the most interest - at prices the same as half term week were the week before xmas and xmas week.
We are fully booked out for the season already, but there was a definite big lull in January not really getting lots of requests until mid feb then busy until April.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
A rather frustrating 12z GFS which doesn't really build on the earlier runs, but develops high pressure to the west this time and as a result prevents any cold and snow from reaching the Alps until later in December.
Not too bad for Scotland though.
Incidentally whilst I would agree that snow in late November early December can be hit and miss I really wouldn't describe the recent exceptionally mild and dry weather as normal in any way. Quite the contrary.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Let's hope it's a one off, but I must admit to getting a tiny bit worried about 2nd jan now, just seems to be no end in sight, just starting to get a feeling that this season could be one that we all remember but for the wrong reasons! Way to early I hear you cry, but I was right about a November right off and I predicted this on the 6 th ! really hope I,m wrong
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Ps. Just looked at ECM maps and I think the GFS is 12 is a one off, I don't believe that high will be strong enough to push the lows to high especially across the Atlantic , bet by tomorrow we will be back on for snow to return 3rd onwards, even the pub run may get int the spirit! Keep the faith, one thing for sure the HIgh over the east will break by end of month, it's being hit from all sides now, including the jet stream
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| Quote: |
Timmaah, unlikely to have a temperature inversion and snowy weather at the same time. An inversion requires calm, stable weather.
But does it not take quite some time for warm(4-6C) ground to become frozen?
|
Grounds not that warm, actually already fairly frozen in places - the very clear nights do mean it's getting fairly cold overnight and the heat radiates away very quickly with no cloud cover.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
As phillip33 says ECM sticks to it's guns and keeps cold and snow in the Alps from 03 December. That's ok.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Hey all, when nozawa posts this list:
Les Deux Alpes. Chamonix. The Arlberg. Hintertux. Sestriere. Folgaria. Zermatt. Cairngorm. Eastern Pyrenees.
Which one (or three) should I look at to get an idea of say Tignes?
I ask because I bet it's not simply the closest, but maybe L2A is somehow better. I'm assuming Cairngorm isn't...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
awf, Tignes is between a few of those sadly, but I would say the Chamonix forecast is the best guide
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Oooh, yummy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
ECM as of when I checked a few mins ago showing cold and possibly wet on the 3rd dec, mown cannot paste yet , noza can and he will know considerably more than what this means, anyway back to the gunners !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ECM as of when I checked a few mins ago showing cold and possibly wet on the 3rd dec, mown cannot paste yet , noza can and he will know considerably more than what this means, anyway back to the gunners !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry not pissed just this bloody iPad and predicted text and my laziness in checking and keeping one eye on the footie and one hand in the glass !
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
On the glass!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
One Foot On The Glass. Probably my favourite sitcom of all time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
paulio,
Hey you stick to your thread( omg no snow) you shouldn't be watching tv , but concentrating on " inversions" and winding people up, on that are you related to Stanton ? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GFS 18 and 00 both snowier and colder. On another note if the high pressure does build up over the Atlantic will not that have the effect of sucking cold air down over Europe. Noza?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Horrid and cloudy here again, but not especially cold compared to recent mornings. It feels like it will 'precipitate' today. Rain of course, but hey. You can't have everything. That still feels like progress!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| Quote: |
| Hey you stick to your thread( omg no snow) you shouldn't be watching tv , but concentrating on " inversions" and winding people up, on that are you related to Stanton ? |
Hahahaha.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
00z operational and mean continues to see the break down around 03 December. Not quite as cold as some of yesterday morning's output, but still cold and snowy. Indeed it would suggest snow in the southern French Alps from 30 November.
18z operational was akin to 12z in pushing any cold incursion till the end of the first week.
ECM supports a pattern change bringing colder weather into the Alps from 01 December.
Incidentally some pretty serious weather bringing potentially strong winds to the UK on Sunday.
As for high pressure in the Atlantic it depends where it's sitting.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Hmmmn, this is all very well but forecast for Saturday in Edinburgh has gone from 15 knot winds gusting 25 to to 32 gusting 51. Fast chance of a sail now
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
all the chamonix sites/blogs/newpapers etc are claiming that the snow will be arriving the end of the month, even suggesting that it might hang around and dump for 2-3 weeks......
if you need me i'll be sat in the corner on the edge of my seat, holding my breath patiently.... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Also, mrs paulio - who doesn't pay any attention at all to weather forecasts, or any of this GFS witchcraft, or look at webcams, or anything - sent me an IM this morning that said "I can feel snow in the air".
And that's good enough for me.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
awf, I'm in Sainte Foy, just down the road from Tignes.
As above, the Chamonix forecast is generally the best guide, but it's always worth having a look at the Deux Alps one too.
We're almost exactly half-way in-between, so if the two are much the same, that's what we'll get too, but if they're distinctly different then we may get one, the other or something in-between...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
It will snow on the 1st December - heavier on the 2nd.
I know this as I will be driving out there and it is it the Sod's Law that it will be a mare!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Funnily enough this morning's GFS had snow arriving in the French Alps and Switzerland on 01 December spreading east over the next couple of days. Then colder and snowier as the run progressed... Still too far off to be reliable about the detail, but confidence gradually building in a shift away from the very unseasonal, very mild and very dry conditions we've had most of Autumn.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alans deep bath, it did that the year we had booked to go. And then the Pineapple express arrived and spoilt most of it. Still plenty of snow, but not quite what we'd expected, and so damp.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
