 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Piccadilly wrote: |
| Bergfex is forecasting huge amounts over the next five days! 1m 40cms. Really? |
Those figures are for 2800M where there is no skiing of such. I would take a n average of the Valley & Top.
In anycase Bergflex is not reliable source.
Locals know best on this weather stuff.
Overnight/Today We have already 50cms + new snow at the UlmerHutte.
The next few days is to variable to predict precisely.
One thing we know is >>
The westerly wind will be blowing at strong to storm velocity. The avalanche danger will escalate further (3 to 4)
Tomorrow & the next few days the higher lifts will be be affected with closure.
Quiet changeover Saturday tomorrow so excellent New Powder to Tear Up in the shletered areas of the lower part of the hill 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thought it sounded rather optimistic..
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Piccadilly, stanton, Bergfex has been predicting 50cm to 60cm for Friday the last few days. stanton, said 50cm+ today already. Looks pretty on the ball to me...
The point about the altitude is right of course.
Piccadilly, the figure you quoted was presumably from adding up daily totals. It's simply impossible to predict snowfall to the cm whether you are a "local" or based in Timbucktoo. It's almost as hard to measure it. But given the Bergfex figure is for the next six days and given that about 50cms has fallen already an average of 20cm a day over the coming five days is certainly possible. Whether it happens or not...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen,
Bergflex also snowforecast they never get it right.
Arlberg sits on a kind of "weather axis " North, South , West you name it .
Whatever they say you can guarantee its not correct .
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sat 21-01-12 13:00; edited 1 time in total
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stanton, except today perhaps when Bergfex had been saying for several days that 50-60cms of snow would fall and then you said 50cm+ fell? 
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Stanton
What's pictured in that webcam grab from Stuben? Mittelstation? Cannot work it out?
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Driving to Lech this morning. Does anyone know if the Flexenpass is closed? It will be our first time driving from Germany, as we just moved here from the U.S. If it is closed, is the wait anyone's guess? Thanks.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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boofit, it is currently closed according to the OE3 traffic reports because of the avalanche risk. http://oe3verkehr.orf.at/
But as long as they can blast the threats away and then clear the debris, it should open later on, This is changeover day so lots of people want to get out of Lech as well as get in! There is no other route in for coaches and trucks supplying the hotels etc. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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| ulmerhutte wrote: |
Stanton
What's pictured in that webcam grab from Stuben? Mittelstation? Cannot work it out? |
Albona Mittelstation Restaurant
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| stanton wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| stanton, except today perhaps when Bergfex had been saying for several days that 50-60cms of snow would fall and then you said 50cm+ fell? |
Read back....
| stanton wrote: |
Folks.
New Snow!! Upto. Jan 22nd we can expect around
65-70cms of New POW  |
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Not quite sure what you are trying to demonstrate? |
It seems everytime I've looked Bergfex has been pretty accurate, and StAnton's forecasts have too - I'd assumed he was looking at Bergfex (or other pages using the same data)...
Exact depths are not really the point, it is simply impossible to give such a prediction - if you are that brave then you have to state exactly where, what time etc. There are just too many factors that affect the depth (wind, temperature, aspect & angle of slope, type of snow etc etc). However, whenever Bergfex has forecast a big dump then there has been a big dump, when they've said clear its been clear. As forecasts go I've been impressed with Bergfex so far this season, certainly if you look as far as the 48 or 72 hours windows it's good. Beyond that it seems to have got the general idea correct.
Noza, do you know where Bergfex get their data and model from? Is it better than others such as snow-forest.com?
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Poster: A snowHead
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sah, Bergfex uses ZAMG which is the Austrian Met Office (and hence related to ECM and I suspect DWD). Snowforecast uses the US GFS operational run. The ECM model has consistently slightly better verification stats than GFS (though that does not mean it is always better). Almost all forecasts use one of the main super computers (ECM is based in Reading, UKMO in Exeter) at some stage in their process. GFS provides much more free content, hence why many commercial or internet forecasts use GFS data. GFS also goes out to 16 days versus 10 for ECM.
As you say you can't produce a forecast to within cms over a broad area (too much local variation) or a specific area (too many variables to be that accurate in advance).
The various avalanche bulletins probably give the best idea of what the weather will be closer in. The Tirol one for example has a good graphic for likely snow accumulation which St Anton pasted a few days ago as well as it's daily text update.
http://lawine.tirol.gv.at/schnee-und-lawineninfo/karten/prognosekarten/
These are produced by... ZAMG.
By 22nd Jan the likely snowfall over the last few days looks like it could even have exceeded 1m in places given that 40-70cms has already fallen in the Arlberg and another 40cms is anticipated between now and tomorrow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| sah wrote: |
StAnton's forecasts have too - I'd assumed he was looking at Bergfex (or other pages using the same data)...
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I do not use Bergfex or Snowforecasts.
Snowfall amounts come from the Tirol Provincial government.
My other data comes from being on the ground smelling the air,looking at the cloud type density. You know when it coming what type (rain,sleet or snow) plus talk to the local Farmers! There cows give them the signals.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| stanton wrote: |
| sah wrote: |
StAnton's forecasts have too - I'd assumed he was looking at Bergfex (or other pages using the same data)...
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I do not use Bergfex or Snowforecasts.
Snowfall amounts come from the Tirol Provincial government.
My other data comes from being on the ground smelling the air,looking at the cloud type density. You know when it coming what type (rain,sleet or snow) plus talk to the local Farmers! There cows give them the signals. |
Don't want to smell the air too close to the cows...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| stanton wrote: |
| sah wrote: |
StAnton's forecasts have too - I'd assumed he was looking at Bergfex (or other pages using the same data)...
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I do not use Bergfex or Snowforecasts.
Snowfall amounts come from the Tirol Provincial government.
My other data comes from being on the ground smelling the air,looking at the cloud type density. You know when it coming what type (rain,sleet or snow) plus talk to the local Farmers! There cows give them the signals. |
Don't want to smell the air too close to the cows... |
I bet the farmers use ZAMG anyway
Whatever the source, I'm very grateful to stanton for all the updates! It makes working in my office in the UK much more bearable. Can't wait to get out there on Wednesday!
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sat 21-01-12 16:05; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Austrian cows must be smarter than French ones. I've not found asking the old boys round here to be very reliable. Taking a look at a range of forecasts on the internet is more useful!
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Just got to zurich after 4 hour journey . Looked like hell going into the arlberg with very long queues. Have not seen that much snow in a long time ! Yeterday was deep face shots all day long off the back of galzig
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| stanton wrote: |
| Swasko wrote: |
| Just arrived, quite a lot work to get here, certainly if you put on your chains on your front wheels, only to realise afterwards that you have traction on the rear wheels. |
Not good to set off driving anywhere without knowing what wheels supply the traction especially in the winter.
Braking & Handling of the vehicle are completely different.  |
Off course we know the traction of the car, we did just went to a slight Frenzy mode when we suddenly had to put on the chains on a not so optimal spot (which is off course not a very good defense )
Today (Saturday) was quite up & down: despite being ready to go at 8:30 we had a heavy issues getting out of Petneu. No busses and since the reason the there were none was that they did not know if the road would be still open in the PM we didn't dare to go by car. By 11:30 we finally caught a bus in the idea we could stay till bout 15:30. Did 2 hours on Rendl, but had to leave as roads were closing at 2 instead of 4 . Back in Pettneu at 2Pm, then rented some snowhoes and went hiking upwards the (closed/bankrupt?) lift in Pettneu . Got up to a hut after a little under 2 hours, but temperature was rising all the afternoon, so the powder was too heavy and we had not the best of runs on a rather flat path. Had fun, but limited boardmiles for the first of our 3,5 days.
Now lets hope tomorrow roads are open. It certainly looks more clear this evening in Pettneu (no snow, even some rain at 4PM).
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just back from Lech today - day late as Flexenpass closed all day Saturday. Extra day/night in hotel in Oberlech but just sat around waiting to go home.
Fantastic week ski-ing - 4 days clear blue skys then a couple of snowy days at the end of the week. Never seen as much snow in the Arlberg as last week but then again haven't been going for 50 years!
Anybody going out at present should have some fantastic ski-ing although this morning it was a bit slushy in the village - hopefully will get a bit colder over the next few days.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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stanton, whats the word on wether this weather is going to keep on dumping through the rest of the season? any views from the cows or locals
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| stanton, whats the word on wether this weather is going to keep on dumping through the rest of the season? any views from the cows or locals |
Cows are producing good milk. I would say Tuesday another Major Dump!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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stanton, You clearly know most things "St Anton".............can you help.
Coming out to St Anton on Saturday for next week with friends and OH, (to say we're all giddy is an understatement), its 12 years since we did the Rodelbahn sledge run, and want to do it one evening next week, cant see any answers on line..............my questions are as follows, can you (or any other SH's) help?:-
1. Do we walk up or is there a special evening chair lift? (Walked up last time but wondered if any easier way up now, rather than busting our budgie-lungs after a full day shredding the pow!
2. Can you do it floodlight any evening or just certain evenings?
3. Do you need to book or just pitch-up at Rodelhutte?
4. What is the best time to go up, assuming we want to eat in the evening at Rodelhutte, and have a few beers etc before the Rodel-Grand-prix starts, ie what time does it close, and Rodelhutte lights go out?
5. What do we do with the sleds at the bottom?
6. Is it open currently - Av risk etc?? (Slightly more important than #6!!)
Your help, if you (or any other SH's) can offer any local knowledge is much appreciated! Cheers
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stanton, Cheers, I owe you a Stiegl!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Just back from St Anton last night. In all the years of going to St A, I have never seen so much snow in St Anton and surrounding areas. However, yesterday and Sat the avi risk was level 4, and most lifts were closed. On Saturday morning the locals were saying that there had been 1 metre of new snow over 24 hours, and the powder skiing on Saturday was sublime (although limited areas only). Sunday morning saw rain at resort level, and everyone very concerned about avalances. Great skiing, again only low down, but on spring snow. Throughout the 4 days we were there the top lifts were cosed due to high winds and ongoing snow, so I would expect that when the weather settles there will be some amazing powder available to those willing to go off piste.
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snowgood, Cheers too, just spotted your reply. Is the White Ring open btw?
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FAQ
