 Poster: A snowHead
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Is the rain supposed to lighten up for tomorrow in Austria ?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| chubuking wrote: |
| Is the rain supposed to lighten up for tomorrow in Austria ? |
Latest forecasts I've seen suggest lighter tomorrow but quite heavy again on Wednesday, turning to snow on Thursday and Friday.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Zillertal (on Bergfex) looks to be getting some rain below 1800m tomorrow before some decent snowfall Thursday and Friday. Freezing level 500-600m by Friday.
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| Matrix wrote: |
| Zillertal (on Bergfex) looks to be getting some rain below 1800m tomorrow before some decent snowfall Thursday and Friday. Freezing level 500-600m by Friday. |
Positive news, the mild weather now forecast to end days earlier in Austria.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Chamonix currently forecasted to top +20c next week.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Chamonix currently forecasted to top +20c next week. |
Are you looking at the Fahrenheit temp not the Celsius by any chance
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Nope.
Celsius.
Some models are forecasting zero iso near 4000m in the French Alps early next week.
That's close to the summit of Western Europe's tallest mountain -- in the middle of December.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Nope.
Celsius.
Some models are forecasting zero iso near 4000m in the French Alps early next week.
That's close to the summit of Western Europe's tallest mountain -- in the middle of December. |
Must be global boiling doing its thing again! 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Chamonix currently forecasted to top +20c next week. |
Lol where the hell are you seeing that? Forecast until 18th December gives 3c tops.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nunex wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| Chamonix currently forecasted to top +20c next week. |
Lol where the hell are you seeing that? Forecast until 18th December gives 3c tops. |
I realise this thread is going round in circles  , it’s still Bergfex, next Monday 19c.
https://www.bergfex.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/wetter/
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You know it makes sense.
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It rained all day yesterday in Kaprun town. Whilst ascending to the glacier the rain turned to snow beneath Langweid, so there was good snow across all of the skiable domain. it was very windy at times, and the visibility was never very good. But I will take snow over rain any day. Reports from the western alps sound grim.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Trying to put a positive spin on the wearher. As long as there are no landslides Saturday 16th should be a easy transfer day. And the kids won't be complaining about the cold for the week. Expecting spring like snow conditions for la plagne.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Boarderfarce, could be a lovely week, sunny, cold nights!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@under a new name, yep - further out Bergfex appears to use the ECM operational run, which is (as with all of them a long way ahead somewhat “volatile”). There’s no doubt the FL is going to be high next Monday but it looks dry, which is a big improvement on this week!
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Just looking at some live webcams and it looks like La Plagne Centre (1970m) had a decent layer of snow last night after the rain. Looks lovely.
Conversely Morillon Esserts at 1100m looks trashed and nearly all early base gone.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Been watching Tignes (selfishly) and looks like a decent fall last night and more to come lower today now that the FL has dropped.
Also looking at PDS and seems like snow has fallen higher up - fingers x for more lower now today too.
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Hi all, Austria is said to be having spring like conditions come the weekend with lots of sunshine. I’m still deciding where to fly out this weekend, should I be looking higher up the likes of Obergurgl/solden/ischgl or would the ski arlberg region still be fine for piste skiing?
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Snow level finally down below 2000m last night in the Western alps with a decent new layer of snow. Should be going down to 1000m over the next 24 hours
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@BobinCH, LPN properly at 1,700m above Chamonix just now (Para cablecar station) 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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LPN?
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@twoodwar, Limite Pluie Neige
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@twoodwar, Its French for rain/snow line - I can't translate it but something like pluie/neige
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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If one was to get a last minute flight on Saturday for a short 3 night trip, where would be the best bet to aim for? The Dolomites seem to be holding up ok at the moment?
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You know it makes sense.
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| chubuking wrote: |
| Hi all, Austria is said to be having spring like conditions come the weekend with lots of sunshine. I’m still deciding where to fly out this weekend, should I be looking higher up the likes of Obergurgl/solden/ischgl or would the ski arlberg region still be fine for piste skiing? |
Tomorrow and Thursday should be snow to the valleys in AT. Both Arlberg and Ischgl should be great on the weekend (not gonna be THAT warm), and both have better skiing than Sölden/Obergurgl.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Fridge03 wrote: |
| If one was to get a last minute flight on Saturday for a short 3 night trip, where would be the best bet to aim for? The Dolomites seem to be holding up ok at the moment? |
Les Contamines looking pretty decent. 70cm at Signal which is plenty given you are skiing over grass rather than rock and more in the forecast. Always a good option for a short trip given easy drive from GVA.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Fridge03, Which airport(s) can you get to?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Fridge03 wrote: |
| If one was to get a last minute flight on Saturday for a short 3 night trip, where would be the best bet to aim for? The Dolomites seem to be holding up ok at the moment? |
My advice would be to fly on Thursday night if you can. Friday looks like it will be superb - cold and the first bluebird day after this last huge dump. Saturday also looks good. Sunday/Monday sunny but very warm. And go as high as possible as there was a lot of rain below 2300m
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @Fridge03, Which airport(s) can you get to? |
Any really that isn't a hideous price! Just looking for somewhere with a shortish transfer and decentish conditions!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Fridge03, Innsbruck and the Arlberg? GVA and Verbier?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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heading to Tignes on Sunday...further than ideally wanted to travel as only a 4 day trip, but glad that was the choice instead of the lower resorts which were closer, looks like we will have dry sunny and warm temps
perfect timing between current storms and next batch........
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@Fridge03, don't think dolomites have got much of the fresh though they will get some in next few days
Personally I'd go high, Munich / Innsbruck and solden / obergurgl, maybe Ischgl, Turin / Milan and cervinia Lyon / Geneva and Tignes / 3vs
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@Fridge03, either Arlberg, Ischgl, or Verbier should be pretty good. The Dolomites missed the rain but also missed the snow earlier. Looks like 10-15cm fresh there now but definitely less base than in the north.
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@Rob Mackley, haha, yes I had enough snow, got too excited too early, did 5-6 days, craving satisfied.....and there's 'what is the point' angle, the snow/rain will come whether it's forecast at 8-10 days or 3-4 days at the more conservative commercially run sites. Sometimes nice to slide around and enjoy the mountains without distractions. Am looking forward to a good xmas spell when more lifts open though.
Hindcast for Nov 23.....the long range models did pretty well with the pattern, northern blocking, southerly jet, but had it too far west.....a few hundred km's makes all the difference, and in this case they underestimated how far east the low would sit, so turned out to be a very good month
average Nov model forecast below vs the reality
 
Here are the Dec updates for Dec, Jan, Feb......Dec is more of the same but milder, Jan and Feb look colder....more N/NW flow due to atlantic block instead of northern block....bag of salt etc.
  
In the meantime....short term models all saying 20-40cm until tomorrow night with 1300m FL.....but we knew that ages ago, just adding some colourful charts 
   
Back to some actual forecasting.....and caveating for week 18-25th
EC46 last 3 days (oldest to newest) below show the uncertainty.....still not great, too much high pressure over france, but at least the isobars are north of west on the latest run
[img]https://i.ibb.co/5sSZx2g/webp-worker-commands-864475f69f-d4w2z-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-J9q-Cg-P.webp[/img]
[img]https://i.ibb.co/fnh8Kc3/webp-worker-commands-864475f69f-q864t-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3q0-IHs.webp[/img]
[img]https://i.ibb.co/HtPKkDh/webp-worker-commands-864475f69f-msq9s-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Amq-XKW.webp[/img]
But we know the first few days will be high pressure dominated.....so from this weekend until about the 21st will be dry and sunny, with above avg temps as warm air is pulled up from the south.
So the real interest starts around 22-23rd...days 9-10 away. Good agreement on the means below, but not ideal, possibly on the mild side.....room for improvement
  
Strat wise the long forecasted mid Dec warming is happening, with corresponding weaker than normal strat winds.....ie less westerly momemtum / disorganised polar vortex. Which is all good except it will take time to reach trop levels. Almost the opposite to what we saw end of November where the trop was blocked and the strat was spinning furiously. So the disconnection continues.
[img]https://i.ibb.co/5WnWw9M/webp-worker-commands-864475f69f-hj2z7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-h1i-ITk.webp[/img]
Ironically we now have strong +AO and +NAO again towards mid month.....but not a surprise to those following the moon. Bottom line is the upper strat weakness should help out in the medium term, especially the holiday period and into Jan where we are normally fighting against a fired up polar vortex....not this year, but hard to say if it will actually lead to cold where we need it.
Haven't read any other sites.....that's the first look I've had at the modelling in a few weeks.......need to be really bored or suitably motivated, but we've had enough rain now.....time for snow and sunshine
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 13-12-23 16:14; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@polo, Great work
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Yes.
Jetstream shifting north, and foehn coming up from the southwest.
Very warm for the European Alps and Scotland early next week.
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FAQ
Bergfex is, like, one run of one model, innit?? I think this looks rather more realistic and reliable
