 Poster: A snowHead
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From bbc to further my previous comment:
Implementing Plan B would bring England effectively in line with restrictions still in place in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Jonny996 wrote: |
From bbc to further my previous comment:
Implementing Plan B would bring England effectively in line with restrictions still in place in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. |
Is there a significant difference between the home nations in the course of the pandemic over the last few months? I've not been paying much attention to things in NI, Scotland or Wales.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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"NHS website to be updated to allow booster jab bookings without invitation
Earlier, health minister Edward Argar said people can book their booster jabs without an invitation if it has been six months since their second dose - but the NHS website says otherwise (see our 7.55am post).
Now, NHS England has said its website will be updated very shortly to allow everyone eligible to book in. "
on Sky news this am.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@andy from embsay, To be fair nobody had any idea what vaccine waning would mean, so the whole world is learning as they go.
Probably. Even more reason for some caution.
@stanton, I fear you may be right. Not looking forward to the same battle as Dec 26 last year to get across Channel.
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| Jonny996 wrote: |
From bbc to further my previous comment:
Implementing Plan B would bring England effectively in line with restrictions still in place in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. |
Is there a significant difference between the home nations in the course of the pandemic over the last few months? I've not been paying much attention to things in NI, Scotland or Wales. |
Well yes. And it doesn’t really give Plan B measures a ringing endorsement…
Scotland has now dropped back below England (in the last fortnight - they had a big school-related spike, as England is experiencing now) but Wales (particularly) and NI still have higher rates than Egland where there’ve been no measures since 19 July.
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Yes, @stanton, I agree, I can't see how France etc can avoid at the very least asking that UK citizens have double jab certificates and recent test. The disparity in infection rates is too great and getting worse.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| snowball wrote: |
| Yes, @stanton, I agree, I can't see how France etc can avoid at the very least asking that UK citizens have double jab certificates and recent test. The disparity in infection rates is too great and getting worse. |
I’ll put it out here that I reckon that come 1 December the disparity in infection rates between UK and France is a lot, lot smaller than it is now. Vaccination/infection in kids and boosters, plus maybe a bit of vax waning in France (JBM’s Twitter thread linked elsewhere suggested 75% of vaxxed adults in the UK are now six months beyond jab 2, in France it’s 35%).
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Yes, my 1st trip to Obergurgl early December is starting to look iffy. My gut feeling is that the EU countries will reintroduce travel restrictions soon, our figures make for depressing reading and analysis. We as a country led by a totally inept PM seem to have taken our foot off the gas. I was in a fairly busy supermarket the other day and I was in the distinct minority wearing a mask, this contrasted greatly on a recent visit to Glencoe when everybody was wearing them. Nicola for all her faults seems to have more common sense than BJ. Freedom Day my ar#se. 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Layne, Francois Balloux from UCL is one. Interesting thread here where he calculates everyone will get Covid every 9 years or so!
https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1450758279093751814?s=21
To be honest, unless you believe zero covid is a thing (and even the Kiwis have given up on that now) you have to believe that at some point you’re going to come across a viable dose of virus. The likelihood is you won’t be very ill (or even notice), but viruses gonna virus, as they say. |
Interesting, his, as he admits "guestimates" (though reasonably well based), are that everyone will get infected on average every 9 years. And be ill for 2.5 days. With around 20k infections per day and a fatality rate of 0.1% (later says latter is "probably far too pessimistic".
I have asked this question a number of times and I don't believe I've seen an answer. If that is the case, unless we are to maintain public health measures (such as masks) for ever (which we clearly aren't) the only question is the level of vaccination that we accept before we abandon them altogether.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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[quote="Snowbandit56"]Yes, my 1st trip to Obergurgl early December is starting to look iffy. My gut feeling is that the EU countries will reintroduce travel restrictions soon, our figures make for depressing reading and analysis. We as a country led by a totally inept PM seem to have taken our foot off the gas. I was in a fairly busy supermarket the other day in Lancashire and I was in the distinct minority wearing a mask, this contrasted greatly on a recent visit to Glencoe in Scotland picking up supplies at the COOP in North Ballachulish were everybody was wearing them. Nicola for all her faults seems to have more common sense than BJ. Freedom Day my ar#e. I regretably have to concur with St Anton.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| snowball wrote: |
| Yes, @stanton, I agree, I can't see how France etc can avoid at the very least asking that UK citizens have double jab certificates and recent test. The disparity in infection rates is too great and getting worse. |
I’ll put it out here that I reckon that come 1 December the disparity in infection rates between UK and France is a lot, lot smaller than it is now. Vaccination/infection in kids and boosters, plus maybe a bit of vax waning in France (JBM’s Twitter thread linked elsewhere suggested 75% of vaxxed adults in the UK are now six months beyond jab 2, in France it’s 35%). |
Interesting data just in from ONS - it looks from this as if AZ wanes less v infection than Pfizer up to 150 days (though Pfizer still more effective v infection) - apols for my scribbling - those are the odds of becoming infected.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/21october2021
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You know it makes sense.
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| Layne wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Layne, Francois Balloux from UCL is one. Interesting thread here where he calculates everyone will get Covid every 9 years or so!
https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1450758279093751814?s=21
To be honest, unless you believe zero covid is a thing (and even the Kiwis have given up on that now) you have to believe that at some point you’re going to come across a viable dose of virus. The likelihood is you won’t be very ill (or even notice), but viruses gonna virus, as they say. |
Interesting, his, as he admits "guestimates" (though reasonably well based), are that everyone will get infected on average every 9 years. And be ill for 2.5 days. With around 20k infections per day and a fatality rate of 0.1% (later says latter is "probably far too pessimistic".
I have asked this question a number of times and I don't believe I've seen an answer. If that is the case, unless we are to maintain public health measures (such as masks) for ever (which we clearly aren't) the only question is the level of vaccination that we accept before we abandon them altogether. |
Vaccination plus infection? From what I’ve seen kids in UK are getting immunity from infection far quicker than they’re getting it from vaccines right now.
TBH I think the really interesting one is how long we’ll make it illegal not to self-isolate following a pos test - that’s what makes this unusual (are there any other diseases where you can be fined for not staying at home?). Events in the SW where 40k people didn’t isolate following a false negative test shows the effectiveness of isolation (and is why I’m currently at home on a beautiful day as I have a colleague who was given a false negative and subsequently gave it to me!).
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 21-10-21 11:43; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Sorry for the double post, can't seem to delete it.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| stanton wrote: |
IMO.. The Drawbridge will come up & the EU will reimpose Travel Restrictions probably as early as November...
Travel within the internal EU border will be not be affected |
Only felt compelled to reply as someone quoted you.
I wasnt aware that the EU, en bloc, imposed travel restrictions.......................
I am also stunned - nay amazed - at the revelation that countries within the "internal EU border" will be unaffected.
Of course, this could just be complete dangly bits as usual from you.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The only reason our figures look bad in context with other countries is because our government is obsessed with mass testing healthy people (whether rightly or wrongly is irrelevant, it's a statement of fact), we simply aren't comparing apples with apples. When you conduct more tests per day than the whole of the EU put together for a virus that is somewhere between 30-90% asymptomatic of course you're going to find more positives. Our positive rate / test is actually lower than the european average.
The whole fascination with vaccine rates is another complete red herring, particularly with current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated (but far less likely to get seriously ill / die as a result). I was speaking to a German friend last night, their vaccination rates are stalled at 55% and not expected to increase significantly from that point because their laws do not allow for the mandating / coercion being used elsewhere. I imagine many other first world countries are in a similar position (The UK is currently >85%)
So feel free to criticise our government all you want, I'm the first to say they've done an abysmal job, but those calling for more testing, higher vaccination rates etc know that this is what is causing our high case numbers. Not because the government hasn't hung drawn and quartered crazy Dave the anti-vaxxer for refusing to get jabbed or wear a mask on the train.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@GottaCatchEmAll, Positive tests are one metric.
We are also worse off with hospitalisations, ICU cases, deaths than comparable countries.........so the positive tests are not quite the red herring you may think.
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Even comparing deaths can be a challenge as some use the WHO meaning for covid deaths and others like UK use other metrics. Comparing country stats is actually very hard to do reliably
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@GottaCatchEmAll, Not just comparing UK with other countries, but also comparing UK numbers now with the same time a year ago. We are now doing 3 x as many daily tests as we were in October 2020.
In practice, I think it would be very difficult for an individual European country to ban UK travellers-with open borders, it would have to be done by the entire EU otherwise people could enter through a different country; E.g. fly to Geneva to ski in France (which is what lots of people do anyway).
Report in todays Telegraph says the average double vaccinated Covid death is now 85 with 5 comorbidities. I suspect there are not many in Snowheads community with that profile so I don't think your average skier should worry too much about who they share a gondola with.
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| GottaCatchEmAll wrote: |
| Our positive rate / test is actually lower than the european average. |
This is the positivity rate since the summer for the UK and the main Alpine ski countries.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| TBH I think the really interesting one is how long we’ll make it illegal not to self-isolate following a pos test - that’s what makes this unusual (are there any other diseases where you can be fined for not staying at home?). Events in the SW where 40k people didn’t isolate following a false negative test shows the effectiveness of isolation (and is why I’m currently at home on a beautiful day as I have a colleague who was given a false negative and subsequently gave it to me!). |
Indeed. Seems pointless to me. What is the justification for it. That is to say how will the situation be different in one years time? When I assume isolation will have been canned. In fact, ironically, we will probably get there quicker if we stop isolating now.
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| Rob_Quads wrote: |
| Even comparing deaths can be a challenge as some use the WHO meaning for covid deaths and others like UK use other metrics. Comparing country stats is actually very hard to do reliably |
I read a thread from France that said that in France they don’t count covid deaths that don’t occur in hospital?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I suspect its no longer accurate but this gives you an idea of the variation across countries - https://analysis.covid19healthsystem.org/index.php/2020/06/04/how-comparable-is-covid-19-mortality-across-countries/. As you say some only count deaths that are recorded as due to covid which is very different to someone having test in the last 30 days.
There are things we could be doing but its a real challenge to know what - the masks being a prime example - the data across the UK nations is conflicting. Other nations without masks some are doing well but they seem to have changed their attitude to personal health. You only need to go to the toilet in the UK and its staggering how many don't wash their hands for that let along for covid.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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We have delayed booking accommodation on our lads weekend as a result of the latest rumblings in the press. The slow release of Plan B and Plan C sound vaguely familiar to previous rumblings here the end result was a 3 month lockdown. I don't see us ending up there, but I think things like PCR tests for travel will probably be re-introduced as well as mask wearing. If they don't stop the rise then almost certainly it will be border closures and local lockdowns. Confident the UK Govt will resist a general lockdown for as long as possible.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| FrediKanoute wrote: |
| Confident the UK Govt will resist a general lockdown for as long as possible. |
Whether it might be the right thing to do or not. Shambles.
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| snowhound wrote: |
otherwise people could enter through a different country; E.g. fly to Geneva to ski in France (which is what lots of people do anyway).
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Well...... Switzerland like UK is not part of EU.......
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You know it makes sense.
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@thierryd, I know.....I used that as an example of a commonly used open border for UK skiers. My point is that with open borders (like there also is between Switzerland and the EU), it is practically impossible trying to stop people entering a European country once they have got into a neighbour.
But hey, stick with the pedantics if you prefer.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snowhound wrote: |
@thierryd, I know.....I used that as an example of a commonly used open border for UK skiers. My point is that with open borders (like there also is between Switzerland and the EU), it is practically impossible trying to stop people entering a European country once they have got into a neighbour.
But hey, stick with the pedantics if you prefer. |
Well last winter it was the case, border between France and Switzerland was restrited specially for skiers.... And borders between France and GErmany was also restricted to name a few....
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Poster: A snowHead
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| GreenDay wrote: |
@GottaCatchEmAll, Positive tests are one metric.
We are also worse off with hospitalisations, ICU cases, deaths than comparable countries.........so the positive tests are not quite the red herring you may think. |
But the testing data also feeds into much of the above and again different countries use different parameters to quantify their "Covid-19 deaths". In England deaths are counted as "Covid-19 deaths" if the person tested positive for Sars-CoV-2 within 28 days of their death regardless of what they actually died from. Again, whether you want to argue if that's the right, wrong or an indifferent way to do it the fact is it's still different to other countries (even slightly different to other countries in the UK) so once again we're not comparing like for like.
Same with hospitalisations, people get classed as a "covid-19 patient" in this country if they test positive for Sars-CoV-2 either before entering or whilst in hospital regardless of their actual ailment and regardless of whether they suffer any symptoms from the virus.
By all means compare trends internally in the UK but to compare one set of data from this country to another country who measures using completely different parameters is entirely meaningless.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| GottaCatchEmAll wrote: |
| Our positive rate / test is actually lower than the european average. |
This is the positivity rate since the summer for the UK and the main Alpine ski countries.
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Plenty of European "ski countries" with higher positive rates than the UK too: Bulgaria 17%, Finland 7.8%, Russia 5.6%, Slovenia 24.4% etc.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| GottaCatchEmAll wrote: |
| Plenty of European "ski countries" with higher positive rates than the UK too: Bulgaria 17%, Finland 7.8%, Russia 5.6%, Slovenia 24.4% etc. |
Sure, which is why I said the main Alpine countries, which are going to be the European destinations that the majority of people on the forum will be interested in.
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| GottaCatchEmAll wrote: |
| The whole fascination with vaccine rates is another complete red herring, particularly with current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated (but far less likely to get seriously ill / die as a result). I was speaking to a German friend last night, their vaccination rates are stalled at 55% and not expected to increase significantly from that point because their laws do not allow for the mandating / coercion being used elsewhere. I imagine many other first world countries are in a similar position (The UK is currently >85%) |
Germany is 65%, UK 67% (source ourworldindata.org)
Not sure about your first statement either. Certainly having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine - only trouble is you might die or become seriously ill in the process. And people who are vaccinated against Covid-19 are less likely to spread the virus even if they become infected. Basically there are good reasons to be fascinated with vaccine rates.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I think the decision over whether there is a realistic European ski season (for us) is going to be much more determined by what happens on the continent, than in the UK. Rates are starting to move up in many countries and it won't take much for political reasons for some leaders to be pushed into doing something/anything to show they are 'in control of Covid'. I can see border controls kicking in if there remains a wide disparity in vaccination levels/infection levels. Add to this, waning immunity coming up in Dec/Jan for the most vulnerable and things could get sticky.
Given many countries have needed vaccine mandates to get their populations double jabbed, I do wonder how many will turn up for boosters in the middle of winter.
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| GottaCatchEmAll wrote: |
| The whole fascination with vaccine rates is another complete red herring, particularly with current PHE data demonstrating what most of us have been seeing all year in that the vaccinated are more likely to catch Sars-CoV-2 than the unvaccinated ) |
Do you have a link to the PHE data which shows that you are more likely to be infected if you have been vaccinated. I’d be interested to see how they conducted that study.
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I can't see an appetite for another lockdown or restrictions unless countries health systems start to struggle or a new vairant takes a foothold somewhere.
The UK is ahead of most of europe in the current wave. Maybe that is expected, as we was ahead in the vaccines - which was initially Pfizer - and starting to wane.
Maybe a different approach is needed. Like a 8+2
No restrictions for 8 weeks. Restrictions for 2. This will help business to plan, schools to plan, people to plan, etc.
Also need to sort out the mask situation. The masks the majority people of wear in Wales, are clearly not working.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| snowball wrote: |
| Yes, @stanton, I agree, I can't see how France etc can avoid at the very least asking that UK citizens have double jab certificates and recent test. The disparity in infection rates is too great and getting worse. |
I’ll put it out here that I reckon that come 1 December the disparity in infection rates between UK and France is a lot, lot smaller than it is now. Vaccination/infection in kids and boosters, plus maybe a bit of vax waning in France (JBM’s Twitter thread linked elsewhere suggested 75% of vaxxed adults in the UK are now six months beyond jab 2, in France it’s 35%). |
There is no way 75 of adults are past 6 months from second jab, I had my jabs as soon as possible and I'm 62 so fairly early in the programme and I cant have my 6my booster till 22nd of November at the earliest, mrs is NHS and had ger jabs very early and only had her booster three weeks ago
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| robs1 wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| snowball wrote: |
| Yes, @stanton, I agree, I can't see how France etc can avoid at the very least asking that UK citizens have double jab certificates and recent test. The disparity in infection rates is too great and getting worse. |
I’ll put it out here that I reckon that come 1 December the disparity in infection rates between UK and France is a lot, lot smaller than it is now. Vaccination/infection in kids and boosters, plus maybe a bit of vax waning in France (JBM’s Twitter thread linked elsewhere suggested 75% of vaxxed adults in the UK are now six months beyond jab 2, in France it’s 35%). |
There is no way 75 of adults are past 6 months from second jab, I had my jabs as soon as possible and I'm 62 so fairly early in the programme and I cant have my 6my booster till 22nd of November at the earliest, mrs is NHS and had ger jabs very early and only had her booster three weeks ago |
Apologies - it’s 75% of over 60s are 5 months past - should’ve checked the Twitter thread. Still, as vax waning is a gradual process then it’d help to explain why things look worse here.
But the over 60s are the vulnerable group so they do need to crack on with these boosters, especially in the light of the Pfizer trial data yesterday - there certainly doesn’t seem to be the urgency in supply that there was in the spring - lots of people trying to find out how they can sign up and finding it tricky.
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FAQ
