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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:


Quote:

Map based charts.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php
These are the ones everyone else here uses.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
These are the ones I use.



great stuff, much appreciated


wxcharts.eu got a ton of maps & systems as well.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
06z consolidating that outlook. Brief mild spell Wednesday into Friday before cold and likely snow returns next weekend. Cold FI. So a good start to the season.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Pretty damn snowy here in Grenoble. Might have to buy a pair of cross country skis and head out into the park over the road Madeye-Smiley
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Happy birthday, @Red Dave!!!
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Driving around Austria today most of country covered in snow. Especially round Salzburg. Stunning in the sunshine. Skiing tomorrow!
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Sunny and cold morning in Tirol.

Here’s a look at how GFS sees the snow out till Saturday.



Conditions continue to favour the northern side of the Alps. Austria looks like it will do well.

This is the next major weather.

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Yes, it seems to be shaping up very nicely from Friday onwards.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
And look on the bottom right, on the border between Greece and Macedonia.
They are going to be plastered in snow - 131 mm precipitation > at least 150 cm of accumulated new snow.
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

The webcam in Popova Sapka is going to be interesting to follow
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Amazing snow here in the Pyrenees. Light snow still falling at 600m and very cold. 70cm of powder has landed at Superbagneres in the last 48 hours Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Unfortunately I couldn't ski today as I had to dig the house out - tomorrow is going to be good though Very Happy Very Happy
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Anyone know if it’s likely to snow in the Aosta Valley in next fortnight?
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Snowsartre wrote:
Anyone know if it’s likely to snow in the Aosta Valley in next fortnight?

http://wepowder.com/en/gressoney-la-trinite
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snowsartre wrote:
Anyone know if it’s likely to snow in the Aosta Valley in next fortnight?


Ensembles currently suggest a snowy period from 8th. When will you be there? I'll be in Gressoney from 16th.

[/img]
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@tccambs, Pila from 16th
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Very cold, but glorious morning in Tirol. In Ischgl yesterday pistes were in great condition, off piste snow still light, but not deep and there are rocks just beneath the surface.

Friday shaping up to bring another fall of snow to low levels followed by further below average temperatures into the following week.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Big uk temperature crash Thursday afternoon.

Back into the freezer snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like it could be Snowmageddon next weekend? Both GFS and ECM pointing at this.



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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@snowheads68, so ... cold ... but significant precip? Not being suggested from what I can see.

Entirely welcome of course if it arrives snowHead snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Interesting read from Met Office contingency planners.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

Comparing different drivers they still see December to January more likely to be influenced by +NAO (Atlantic, mild) although do say early winter could well see more -NAO (blocked, cold) conditions. Certainly at present there are plenty of cold conditions about... was freezing this morning skiing in Tirol.
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Some very fine snow falling in St Anton this evening. Here’s how it looks over next 48 hours. East profiting most.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting read from Met Office contingency planners.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

Comparing different drivers they still see December to January more likely to be influenced by +NAO (Atlantic, mild) although do say early winter could well see more -NAO (blocked, cold) conditions. Certainly at present there are plenty of cold conditions about... was freezing this morning skiing in Tirol.


Note the Met Office's issue date though..its over a week old Laughing lots change as we know in a week.
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"Comparing different drivers they still see December to January more likely to be influenced by +NAO (Atlantic, mild)"

Even though this is for the UK, I wonder if the implications for the Alps might actually be useful? As I understand it (!) the main problem last season wasn't mildness so much as the lack of precipitation for an extended period in early winter, due to a blocking high which saw Atlantic lows bounced away.

Surely,more Atlantic systems sweeping in would mean more precipitation?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@mitcva, for sure some of the best winters for parts of the Alps in terms of snowfall come when the Atlantic flow provides plenty of snow. The northern side tends to do best in those conditions. But lower resorts can suffer from the milder temperatures. It rather depends on just how the systems sweep in.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@stu20vt, yes but they are issued at the start of every month as a long term forecast.

They are not attempting to deal with short term weather in these forecasts as opposed to try to identify the broader patterns that lie behind.

They are also pretty heavily caveated. No one (sensible) is pretending long term forecasting has much skill.
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Also Atlantic systems can bring poor weather at altitude.
If you are spending the season out there you wont mind the old spell of bad weather. If you are on a six day holiday at £200 plus a day, you'll probably want the lifts running and the pistes open every day. A little snow quite often and preferably at night, is ideal Laughing
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Light snow has continued overnight in St Anton, likely to intensify as day goes on. LWD Tirol is suggesting 20-40cms (the higher end to the east and north). Warning of subsequent buried surface hoar frost and rise in avalanche risk.
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Anecdotally it seems a better start than the last few years
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@FrediKanoute, it certainly is in many parts of the Alps.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
FrediKanoute wrote:
Anecdotally it seems a better start than the last few years


guess that depends where you are. there is definitely less snow in chamonix now than there was this time last year :/ That said, next weekend might change that Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@eddiethebus, my sense is that Switzerland and particularly Austria have received more snowfall than France and Italy so far this year (except perhaps the western parts of Italy that got buried a couple of days ago).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@eddiethebus, surprising....slightly further north Avoriaz has 80cm so far according to onthesnow.com, Bergfex says depths of 70 on hill, 40 valley.

Faceshot below at 1500m on friday.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@langball, @nozawaonsen, must admit to being a little surprised too. Whilst it has been snowier in the east I‘d have still thought conditions would be better than last season in Chamonix at this stage? By this time last year Föhn and mild temperatures had hit the early snow hard.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, yes I agree with both of you. By this time last year nothing was skiable around here. Chalk and reblochon.
I know there are certain drivers at work, la nina, qbo, ao etc....but nothing can really explain why this nov/dec every week we've seen amplification of the azores high up towards greenland. Whereas last few years, with each one getting progressively worse, we couldn't shift the high pressure block parked over europe for more than a few days. This year we've had low pressure parked over europe so far, and the model runs keep reloading the mid atlantic high. Doesn't seem to be much middle ground.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
FrediKanoute wrote:
Anecdotally it seems a better start than the last few years


It is one of the most varied starts to a season ever.

Conditions range from amazing (parts of Austria) to terrible (parts of Italy / France).
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Going to be cool and dry for about 10 days or so as blocking HP comes to visit West Coast of North America. Too soon to know what is in store for USA West Coast ski resorts other than the next week will be sunny and cool. At least it won't be warm and wet!
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Heading out to Ski Amade mid January, thats a long way off I appreciate but looking at the webcams its looking like a great start to the season around Salzburgerland Very Happy
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it is varied - but on balance its quite excellent - so much so that we bot tix and rented a car for a 12 day road trip with my son....be there saturday! Certainly focusing on Austria but maybe some Italy as well and we'll be going right by engelberg...totally playing it by ear.

Wepowder is gr8 fun for the forecast map but what's a good source for recent snowfall....understand it won't be super accurate as prob radar derived but just to help start narrow the search?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Looks like some hefty snowfall coming this weekend from Friday, this time hitting the west hard. Along with very strong winds which will cause a lot of snow transportation and likely shut down some infrastructure. Further snow looks like following up Tuesday/Wednesday.



Here’s the ensembles!



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



@Brothergrimm, various websites do these sort of compilations:

https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/

https://www.bergfex.at/frankreich/schneewerte/

https://www.bergfex.ch/schweiz/schneewerte/

https://www.bergfex.it/italien/schneewerte/
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Off to Val D'Isère tomorrow - gone from (almost) jumping up and down excited at the forecast to "oh cra@p". Skullie

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@nemesys, it'll be dreamy if that comes off!
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@clarky999, great until (IF) that Monday dump comes but I am back home Wednesday and I can see the whole area being shut Tuesday if that happens. Great for the rest of the season though.
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