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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen,

Am I being too optimistic, or are there some signs of more significant snowfall early next week? Shock
If so, how reliable is this info? Cool
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
December will be a cold month in Western Europe.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Lovely day in the mountains this morning.

Findeln webcam (near Zermatt)

Increasingly cold (much colder than seasonal norm) charts being produced for the second week of December in the Alps. And significant snowfall round 04/05 December for much of the Alps looking good, this time pushing down from the north west.



So Callum001 yes.

And Timmaah in Scotland yes definitely, elsewhere in the UK frost for now, but on the basis of this morning's output it certainly looks possible in about a week (but as you know that's quite far out).
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nozawaonsen wrote:
And significant snowfall round 04/05 December for much of the Alps looking good, this time pushing down from the north west.



That would be perfect - a nice juicy top-up next week to consolidate what we've had over the last few days and low temps to allow the cannons to do their stuff.

The perfect start to the season Very Happy
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Quote:

Whitegold: December will be a cold month in Western Europe.

It often is, much colder than, say, June, in my experience (although not always, because I _do_ live in Scotland).
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nozawaonsen wrote:
And significant snowfall round 04/05 December for much of the Alps
Always seems to happen when I drive to the Alps!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
rob@rar wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
And significant snowfall round 04/05 December for much of the Alps
Always seems to happen when I drive to the Alps!


Rob, perhaps you can publicise your schedule for the next couple of years so folks can plan their holidays for the day immediately after you travel so as to be sure of good snow. Very Happy
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ansta1, Laughing
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Quick check on ENSO now at +0.46 and, having failed to sustain the earlier El Niño, positive, but neutral.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.png
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The forecast for Western Alps Monday-Wednesday looks awesome! Cool
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looks like a decent system storm coming into the NW alps next week Mon - Weds. Cold, windy, snowy and generally wild
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Good GFS 18z FI kept it cold and snowy right through.

Here's how the op run would translate into snow over the next seven days kicking off next Tuesday.



Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 5-12-12 7:58; edited 8 times in total
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The cold keeps coming. Very negative Arctic Oscillation at present with plenty of high latitude blocking present.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

Should be some good sunshine in the Alps this weekend too.

From Tuesday more snow. It's coming from a different direction this time, the north west. So the Northern side of the Alps looks like it will do better.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I do like a good NW. driving down next weekend, will be keeping eye on snow for the trip down.
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SLF outlook for Tuesday (for Switzerland).

"Tuesday

Skies are expected to be heavily overcast. In northern and western regions, 20 to 40 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated, in Grisons and in southern regions less. On Monday night the snowfall level in western regions will temporarily ascend to about 1500 m, then drop down to low altitudes again"
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
It's snowing in the Tarentaise this morning, down to valley floor level. Big fat flakes too.
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Quote:

From Tuesday more snow. It's coming from a different direction this time, the north west. So the Northern side of the Alps looks like it will do better.


In addition bergfex are now predicting a megadump for the mayrhofen area on Friday/saturday - 40cm friday and 50 for saturday (bring it on snowHead )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Some decent snow heading for western Scottish resorts tomorrow by the looks of things and Thursday night too.

Nevis Range



And for much of the Alps (especially the French Alps) from Tuesday (04/05 December) and then again Friday (07/08 December)

Alpe D'Huez



Pretty cold too!
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Here's a look at how WRF sees what looks like quite a snowy week coming up.

Tomorrow (03/12) at 1500z pushing into the French Alps.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=57#model

Tuesday (04/12) early hours at 0300z snowing more intensely in the French Alps.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=69#model

Tuesday (04/12) morning at 0900z now reaching across in the Arlberg.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=75#model

Tuesday (04/12) afternoon 1500z pushing across Austria.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=81#model

Tuesday (04/12) evening 2100z a second wave pushing across from the west.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=87#model

Wednesday (05/12) early hours 0300z still strong across the northern Alps, most intense in the Arlberg.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=93#model

Wednesday (05/12) 1200z calming down, still going in the eastern Alps.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=102#model

Wednesday evening (05/12) 2100z rebuilding once more from the west.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=111#model

Wednesday/Thursday overnight (06/12) 0000z once again pushing into the Arlberg and on into Austria.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=114#model

_
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Wow - combined with the low temps that looks like it's cause some serious disruption...
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Snowing lightly in geneva as I landed....
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SLF's Sunday update for Switzerland.

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

Tomorrow

"Snowfall level in the afternoon at 1500 m and rising

Northern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm
Valais, Grisons, northern Ticino, 5 to 10 cm

Temperature
at midday at 2000 m, minus 4 degrees in western regions, minus 10 degrees in eastern regions

Wind
... in the northern Prealps strong westerly winds during the afternoon...

Tuesday

In the Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps and in northern Grisons, 30 to 50 cm of snowfall is anticipated; in Ticino, in central and southern Grisons, less than 30 cm of new fallen snow. The snowfall level is expected to drop further down to low altitudes. A strong westerly to northwesterly wind will be blowing. The avalanche danger is expected to increase in western and northern regions in particular.

Wednesday

In western and northern regions, a small amount of additional snowfall is expected. The wind will slacken off somewhat. The avalanche danger is not expected to change significantly."


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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Decent snow here now, all the way down to city level too...
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Great radar pics tonight watching that big storm roll in from the NW

Scotland getting a pasting atm

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
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Heading out to L2A in a few weeks, delighted to see over 80cms of the white stuff forecast over the next 3 days. Looking good for a great base this season Cool
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Moscow got its biggest November snowfall in 50 years a few days ago.

Followed by a 120-mile traffic jam on the main highway between Moscow and Leningrad.

Followed by a sudden thaw that turned Moscow into a river.



Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Sun 2-12-12 23:16; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

Followed by a sudden thaw

no tales of sudden thaws round here, please, Whitegold. wink
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Whitegold, the traffic's always like that there
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Another cold 18z GFS run out to 18 December. ECM finished on a cold note too.

Snow arriving later tomorrow and three potential dates to keep an eye on for snow in the Alps at the moment, 04/05 December, 07/08 December and 11/12 December.

A snowy week to come in Scotland too.

December getting off to a strong start, especially in the western Alps and Scotland.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Meanwhile in Alaska...

Outdoor Enthusiasts Patiently Await Snowfall
http://articles.ktuu.com/2012-12-01/young-musher_35536561
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Snow's arrived here in Austria already - 3 inches in my (sheltered) garden in the last 4 hours, and still going...
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Whitegold wrote:
Moscow got its biggest November snowfall in 50 years a few days ago.

Followed by a 120-mile traffic jam on the main highway between Moscow and Leningrad.

]


There is no such thing as leningrad anymore
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The French Alps look like taking the brunt of the coming snow.

Parts of the western Alps could see between 50-100cm of snow at altitude in the next few days and a good load more at the end of the week too.

The snowfall will spread east, though looks less inclined to head over to the southern Alps.

And at present the models suggest mid month temperatures will head quite a bit colder.
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nozawaonsen, any thoughts on the freezing level in the Western Alps when those fronts are going through?
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I just had a terrible fright. Before knuckling down to some work I just had a quick look at snowheads saw there was an update to the weather thread in "recent posts" jumped to the bottom of the page and read:
Quote:

Some really warm conditions heading for the Alps over the next week with temperatures 10C over seasonal means.

aaarghh. But then I realised that there seems to be a problem with the links from the recent posts column, it takes you to the first page of a thread; I was reading " snow report Thu 14 Jun, 12", weeew.

Like waking up from a bad dream.

I see bergfex have moderated their forecast for mayrhofen for the end of this week to a more believable 15cm per day.
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rob@rar, if you look at the ensembles above you can see that they ride in on warmer air with cold air piling in behind.

So I'd say you would be looking at around 1400m+/- for the French Alps (perhaps close to 1100m +/- for the Eastetn Alps) before dropping considerably to around 500m+/-.

Worth keeping in mind if you are driving up.
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Hi Noz

Does the current weather predictions and conditions eg its dumping in the French Alps have any similarity's to the start of the 2010/11 season ?

Only if I remember correctly that year we had large snowfalls in early December and people got very excited but then blocking high pressure moved in and it did not snow for most of Jan,Feb and March and was abnormally warm, I was skiing in a t shirt in mid January at La Plagne! it was like spring !

Fingers crossed it will stay cold and the snow sticks around this time

Very Happy
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harri20000 wrote:
Hi Noz

Does the current weather predictions and conditions eg its dumping in the French Alps have any similarity's to the start of the 2010/11 season ?

Only if I remember correctly that year we had large snowfalls in early December and people got very excited but then blocking high pressure moved in and it did not snow for most of Jan,Feb and March and was abnormally warm, I was skiing in a t shirt in mid January at La Plagne! it was like spring !

Fingers crossed it will stay cold and the snow sticks around this time

Very Happy


a query I was just about to post myself.... Here's hoping Noz will say no...
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harri20000 wrote:
Hi Noz

Does the current weather predictions and conditions eg its dumping in the French Alps have any similarity's to the start of the 2010/11 season ?

Only if I remember correctly that year we had large snowfalls in early December and people got very excited but then blocking high pressure moved in and it did not snow for most of Jan,Feb and March and was abnormally warm, I was skiing in a t shirt in mid January at La Plagne! it was like spring !

Fingers crossed it will stay cold and the snow sticks around this time

Very Happy


Every year is different. Just because it's now about to snow doesn't have any bearing as to whats going to happen in Jan, Feb, Mar etc. One thing you can be assured of is that at some point in the winter there is going to be area of high pressure and dry weather over the Alps. The question is, when and how often is this going to happen and will it drag in milder temperatures?
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This year I have arranged with the Big Man for fine weather to occur for the following periods;

16-20 Dec
17-22 Jan
2-6 Feb
2-7 March
16-21 March

So those wanting to ski in whiteouts should avoid those times. Smile
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