 Poster: A snowHead
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The addictive power of this thread is worrying.
When there's no snow forecast I check every day to see if there's ANYTHING out in FI to pin my hopes on - if there isn't the whole process is repeated (with each output).
When there is snow forecast I check every day to make sure it stays on the forecast and hope it builds.
When the outlook is unclear I check every day to see if it is clearing.
Perhaps I should form a group WOAA - Weather Outlook Addicts Anonymous.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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WOAA mantra.
'grant me the serenity to accept the snow might come good, the courage to change change my style if it's artificially blown, and the wisdom to know the difference.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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My name is Bartezki, and I'm a Weather Outlook Addict 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Fairly grey over here today, but not quite got the Wintery bite in the air like recently. It's more cool than cold. Still, cloud, eh?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Samerberg Sue, how are you accessing i-Player from overseas? Proxy server?
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stevomcd - check out a thread i started about how to do that that.
tl;dr: use either Expat Shield or Tor.
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Cloud here in the Tarentaise BTW, but doesn't look like much for now - plenty of blue sky as well.
06z GFS looks better again (not as good as last nights 18z though!).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Cheers Paulio, I had a go with Expat Shield but couldn't get it to work, will check-out Tor.
We only get 1Meg "broadband" here, so that may be the fundamental problem!
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stevomcd, I use Expat Shield - less hassle other than switching off all the dreary ads at the top of the page (once per screen change) and re-booting when I log out.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Another expat shield user here, my son was just watching cbeebies when our local broadband went offline yet again. So switched to 3G for my work connection, now the office in london has lost their internet! must be time to pop out to the local ski shop as 15% sale started today.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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If it does snow before my/everyones early season trips imagine the elation. Living in hope! 
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Continues to look like there could be some snow in the Scottish mountains in the coming days. Not necessarily huge amounts, but given the Met Office reckon parts of Scotland have seen just 6% of average rainfall so far this month http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/very-mild-start-to-november/ it's a start and this weekend looks like it could bring snow to lower levels of the mountains.
In the Alps the pattern remains mild and dry up to this weekend. At that point there is a lot of uncertainty in the models. The last few operational runs on GFS have seen a general continuation of dry high pressure with temperatures warmer than average for the time of year. Clearly that's a pattern it would best to see the back of.
The control and to a lesser extent the mean have been looking a lot colder. And again the control on this morning's ECM looked pretty cold from some of the output.
So at present despite the operational run going milder on recent GFS runs the potential at least for colder weather at the end of the month remains (albeit so does a continuation of mild and dry weather...).
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You know it makes sense.
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Bring on the "pub run" 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I'm an avid reader of this thread so thanks to all who contribute.
Quick question to the experts. I often bring up the animation at the following link:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfs/
You guys talk about control run etc, can you advise which run this is showing?
Thanks in advance
Brian
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Poster: A snowHead
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brianr, I haven't seen that animated link before & it's really rather good with all its selectable parameters. Thanks.  That is the GFS 'operational' run though & doesn't appear to offer you the opportunity to choose the different additional modelled runs that make up the 'ensemble'.
You can see all of those here though ... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php
FWIW, the 'control run' is meant to be computed with the same amount of detail as the 'operational run' but frigged a wee bit at the start just so as to see that no utter madness ensues when they are compared. Most of the weather centre models operate in a similar manner i.e. you'll see operational, control and lower reolution variance runs within the ensemble plots for ECM etc. It's just that the GFS weather model, being operated by a USA national governmental and publicly funded institution (much like their mapping service) offers its data up quite freely to everybody.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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No cheer for the Alps from either ECM 12z or GFS 18z, both eke out high pressure throughout most of their operational runs.
Unfortunately, tips the scales this evening more towards a continuation of milder and dry conditions in the Alps.
Still let's see which way tomorrow goes...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
No cheer for the Alps from either ECM 12z or GFS 18z, both eke out high pressure throughout most of their operational runs.
Unfortunately, tips the scales this evening more towards a continuation of milder and dry conditions in the Alps. |
Yep, the best case on the 18Z ensemble output seems to be less than 25% for snowfall in the Alps on Saturday but if that happens, the levee will certainly have broken. If not, then dry and mild for the next 10 days or so seems most likely. I very much hope the morning brings model-watching joy for Alpine skiers too as I have a week's pre-Xmas holiday booked for a family trip & would love to choose a snowy Alpine destination.
Scotland & Scandinavia on the other hand look like they're going to get pummelled whatever.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, how is this current pattern for the Alps shaping up against the long term forecasts say from July and August? Just curious to see if anyone was even close?
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I've stuck the dump alerts for la Tania and decided to hear from them when it snows, my wife told me to do it "for a month now all you do is stare a that computer and what's happened. Nothing" she continued on, To early same every year ,what's the point you can't change it, do you know she's got a point. So I,m going to switch off, have fun and first dump alert I,ll be back, to check it's not all going to melt the next day!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Samerberg Sue,
They were not even close , even upto sept/oct they were not predicting this, but to be fair that's the weather, it could change tomorrow but it's looks like were stuck in a rut for the next few weeks, anyway I,m going to wait until middle of December , if only the high pressure was further west , the fantasy snow thread wouldn't,t have last a page
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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pjd, clearly not just Austria either. As it happens this morning's GFS runs out to 08 December and would have it snowing heavily over the Alps then. But given that's the far end of the run it won't happen quite like that.
The outlook for the Alps is broadly the same as it has been for over a week now. Short term mild and dry. Medium term a little cooler (possibly down to average by next Sunday), but crucially the continuing persistence of high pressure now makes any rain let alone snow very unlikely.
Beyond that you see substantial difference between the operational (very mild) and the control (much colder). The operational run is very much an outlier, but it seems very set in it's ways. Given the spread though you can't have much confidence in it (a good thing all things considered), but unless it backs down a variation on the current mild and dry trend is the pattern to beat.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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phillip33, that's broadly right, and like I said you shouldn't take them that seriously. That said worth a bit of a look.
Samerberg Sue the general pattern for October November December was between average and cold temperature wise and dry precipitation wise. Obviously the first part was nonsense, but dry certainly was right. The other related aspect they did indicate was the lack of northern blocking. This was clearly shown through much of autumn 2010 on the models and indeed was a substantial factor in the early cold we had in winter 2010/11. This year the models have shown quite the opposite. And a number of models suggested high pressure would be more likely to sit over Europe rather than Greenland.
ZAMG did suggest a higher probability for a mild October November December in September and also a higher probability for a mild November in October (and a higher probability for a cold December).
There have of course been a number of rather wild predictions for a cold winter in the UK press all coming from the same source.
What I don't think anyone really anticipated was the length of the current blocking pattern. Which could be with us for a while yet. Or may not.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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I wonder what that's based on? Maybe just optimistic conjecture.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Samerberg Sue, don't recall anyone getting pooh-poohed on here, all very civil. Now if it was to dump on me I wouldn't be complaining.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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paulio, its a new moon on the 25th Nov and it always snows on the new moon. A man in the mountains told me.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Well the moon is quite cold, so it probably cools the sky down a bit.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Samerberg Sue wrote: |
| few pages back and was pooh-poohed by some! |
| Samerberg Sue wrote: |
| It may not have been here on this thread, |
Make your mind up then keep the 'look at me, I was right months ago' chat out of one of the best threads here, if you'd be so kind 
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Samerberg Sue, You predicted this block beginning of April? Is this a pattern that has happened before, as in a high over the Ukraine in April is still hanging around in November? If this has happened before then when will the high move on?
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Alans deep bath, a rather unnecessarily aggressive response 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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waynos,
sorry just spotted the mistake - I did not proof read and the auto correct has replaced a word. It was the beginning of October (bloody iPads!)
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Ref the moon.
As was posted on the Weather Outlook thread last year, or maybe the year before that, weirdly all recent major snowfall has been within 2 weeks of a full moon.
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FAQ
