Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 18-11-11 10:28; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
No real change in the short term...
On the positive side (!) both ECM and GFS are showing signs this morning of the Eastern Block collapsing as we move towards December. Little cracks in the wall and threats of a David Hasselhof concert.
So a shift in pattern with low pressure to the north may be in the air (though I'd want to see a little more evidence given how stubborn the block has been through November).
Here's the first and final frame of ECM to give you an idea.
Worth keeping an eye on as it would certainly be good to see the back of the high pressure over Europe.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
And both in agreement, and at least it might give us a chance to start worrying about whether it will snow or rain or will the snow miss my resort, it's never ending this worrying!!!
Looks like some snow for Lincolnshire on the 28th on the GFS (not that the skiing's that good here..)
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Definitely looking a bit cooler & wetter in Euroland. Scotland looks like it'll get the Lion's share of the precipitation but disturbed enough elsewhere (particularly the Western Alps) to deliver some useful snow too
Looks like there could be a small amount of snow in parts of the southern French Alps tomorrow 19 November, most of the precipitation looks being held further west and could provide some snow for the Pyrenees.
25 to 27 November offers some potential snow across the Alps, although it was a bit of an outlier on the 12z GFS ensembles [edit: and wasn't looking that healthy on the 18z. The period from around 23 to 27 in different permutations has been cropping up in a number of runs over much of the last week, that said I'd suggest it will need to firm up over the next few days if it is going to have any chance of going anywhere, at present I'm increasingly less convinced by it given the lack of support it is getting in the ensembles].
ECM looking a little keener than GFS to try and force out the high pressure (particularly in the ECM 00z run). GFS sees it rebuilding in FI. So still not clear, and won't be for a while yet I guess, how it will evolve as we get into December.
ZAMG on the current dry weather from an Austrian perspective.
- High pressure has blocked low pressure from the Atlantic for nearly three weeks.
- The last similar period of Autumnal dryness was in Autumn 1978 [interesting to note how cold and snowy 1978/79 was in many parts of Europe however].
- The Genoa Low (which caused flooding in Northern Italy at the start of the month) did however bring some precipitation to Carinthia and Eastern Tirol.
- Average temperature at 2246m is only 0.5C cooler than at 500m (you might normally expect it to be around 10C or more cooler).
Meteo France on the mild weather from a French perspective.
- First half of November is the warmest first half of November on record.
- Much of the country apart from the south east has had only 40% of average precipitation.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
(the GFS operational run) ... wasn't looking that healthy on the 18z
Yep, it was nearly as dry as the proverbial bone in Central Europe wasn't it & in marked contrast to the earlier ensemble set. I'm very much hoping it was just a model aberration though since we're looking for a Euro trip w/c 16th December & need a snow base to be be building soon so we can choose a destination.
It is still looking dry for at least the next week. The last two GFS runs have shown stubborn high pressure resisting attempts to break it down and certainly no support for snow at the end of the coming week which earlier runs had toyed with.
ECM is offering some hope at the far end of it's run as we get towards the end of the month, but too far away to be reliable. Worth watching though.
St Anton has had 0.7mm of rainfall since 19 October according to Osterreich.
Tricky.
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nozawaonsen, 0.7mm in a month? You sure thats correct?
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Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
nozawaonsen, 0.7mm in a month? You sure thats correct?
Certainly correct in that that is what it said in Osterreich on Thursday. And by and large that sort of dryness has been the case for much of the Alps bar those areas which had the substantial snow and rain in early November (roughly the south west of the Alps).
Has been some snow today in parts of the Drome in France today. But nothing to get too excited by.
The 06z was actually a bit more cheerful and looked a bit more like ECM in chasing away the high pressure towards the end of the month.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Ricklovesthepowder, Here in Oberbayern, we have had no precipitation since the latter part of October, so looking at nearly a month with no rain or anything other than Reife (hoar frost directly sublimated out of the air onto cold surfaces). I believe places on the Italian border in Tirol and Vorarlberg copped some of the fall out from the storms down that way and look to pick up some more as well.
Still no end in sight according to our weather experts either, due to the blocking effect of the high pressure to the east. But most places are blowing snow as much as they can and the temperatures are at last starting to look more seasonal. The ground here is now pretty well frozen which means when it does snow the base will be laid quickly and things will pick up! As I remember, the mega snow season of 2005/2006 did not really get started until the end of November (28th the storm started and carried on for quite a while), so I'm not worrying too much yet.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Worth having a look at Paul Hudson's latest piece.
Obviously with a UK focus, but the pattern change he's talking about would hopefully create changes over the Alps.
Flags up Weather Action's forecast too, but I would be rather cautious about that.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
it snowed in chester today for about 30 seconds
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
12z GFS operational run was a lot better than the last few. But whether it gets any support will be interesting...
EDIT: It's not completely on it's own. A snowy and at times cold end to November and start to December in the Alps IF it comes off. But first you'd need to get some support building and second you'd want to see it sustained for a few more days and picking up ECM support.
Here are some ensembles, they should update in 15 minutes or so.
I've added one for the Eastern Pyrenees, not far from Andorra (though a bit north to be honest). Anyway quite a bit of snow heading to the western end of the Pyrenees on Tuesday, snow line looks like being around 1800m-2000m+. Scotland starting to see increasing chances of some snow from Tuesday too.
Interesting 18z GFS run. Obviously it's the pub run, but if it verified in FI it would be pretty snowy across the Alps and the Scottish mountains.
06z, 12z, 18z GFS operational runs have all slightly outdone each other on the cold and snowy FI outlooks today. Obviously being that far ahead confidence in any particular outcome is very low, but the trend for much of today's output has been for a cold and snowier end of November and start to December in the Alps and Scotland.
Moreover ECM has also been suggesting a colder evolution.
Whilst they are not yet showing the same patterns (indeed the same models are throwing up different options each run), it is good to see colder options out there and the block out east breaking down. Too soon for any certainty yet, it would be god to see more consistency and support building both within and across the models. But a better outlook than it has been for a while.
If you want to see the ECM run or indeed any of the major weather models Meteociel.fr or Wetterzentrale.de are very useful.
Good to see you have turned to a higher power to forecast the weather. Beer or god !! The aforementioned in you above post, enjoy your drink. I have ! Thanks for the ECM link
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
as01045, yes, but remember that's at around 1500m. Would be snow on that chart for the Scottish mountains certainly. But beware that at that range it could and probably will look different in the morning. But a trend for cold is worth pocketing for the time being!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looking better eh and even if it's still not certain it's at least offering us some hope now
BTW nozawaonsen wanted to say thanks for consistently including Scotland in your forecasts, many might have forgotten it so I have to say I really appreciate your mentions
The overall Wigglies looks much better this morning... Appreciate it's a long way out but promising
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Still looks like a colder end to the month and start to December at present. This morning's output wouldn't be quite so cold as some of the options in yesterday afternoon's runs (today's 06z being the least appealing run of the set so far), but would still see some snow in the Alps and Scotland at times as we transit from Autumn to Winter at the end of this month and the start of December.
The 06z then threatens to return high pressure over the continent as we push into December, but the wide scatter and shifting from run to run suggests the outcome is very unclear.
There was a piece on Wasatch Weather Weenies about the snow conditions in Utah around the time of Jamie Pierre's death which is worth a read.
- Notes the historically mild weather in Autumn was not picked up by seasonal models.
- Suggests winter as a whole looks around average.
- December progressively colder and increasingly disturbed.
- A particularly cold spell expected around Christmas.
- January around normal, February milder and Spring mild and dry.
Make of that what you will, but as they note elsewhere, the lack of snow at this time of year does not mean a mild and dry winter in the mountains.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Short term in the Alps. No surprise. Mild and dry.
Still looks like it will have cooled down by next weekend and possibly bring some snow with it. But no great confidence in that.
Beyond that the 12z GFS operational run continues today's slightly disappointing trend and won't have made many friends by quickly returning high pressure over Europe.
On the positive side it was a relative outlier in the ensembles and the spread from next weekend (and therefore the uncertainty) is very high.
Scotland meanwhile is more in the midst of things with different systems passing through. Temperatures fluctuate quite wildly. But there should be snow over the mountains at times during the coming week.
Last edited by After all it is free on Sun 20-11-11 18:55; edited 1 time in total
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I like the idea that 'uncertainty' is a positive thing.
If I was at a roulette wheel, the 'uncertainty' of where the ball is going to land wouldn't make me feel any better I don't think.
"Well, at least there's no guarantee it will land on zero! Here's ten grand!"
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paulio, better than the "certainty" of continuing mild and dry weather...
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Looks like I got it right re a November right off, let's hope my prediction of 2nd dec comes good for 15cm plus ,re december I predict a month of two halves. Start same as usual followed by the start of winter with real snow and cold temps from around the middle of the month, in other words I've got no chance for the " Fantasy snow" comp , hope I,m right again as I go in 6 weeks ,
And remember no hiding behind if,s and buts here , just predictions based on what I see
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
23rd dec to 9 Jan it will snow in the alps as that's the time i'm back in blighty.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bank the pub run!
18z GFS starts snowing in the Alps on 26 November, takes it colder then doesn't stop for the end if the run. Finishes with a swallow dive.
Obviously given how contrary the runs have been over the last 48 hours no reason to have more faith in this outcome than any other over last two days, except that I prefer this outcome to any other.
Nice to end the day on a positive note though!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
GFS just popped out something very welcome looking, and in its 'high resolution' timeframe too ...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
moffatross wrote:
GFS just popped out something very welcome looking, and in its 'high resolution' timeframe too ...
Oh ya dancer!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Not completely without support. Indeed the control goes with the operational for much of the run then takes it colder. Whether it all ends in a crashing hangover in the morning or not we'll see. But for now.
Better.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BOOM!
Let's hope, eh? (there should be a praying emoticon)[/img]
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
starts to think about when to get the snow tyres put onto the car
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
its a lot clouder over the cham valley this morning, first time i've seen cloud since about this time last year
After all it is free
After all it is free
cantridepete, no offence, but that suggests you haven't been keeping that close a watch in the intervening period!
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haha, yeah you might be right! It certainly kept itself clear from about feb though
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nozawaonsen, saw the first mackerel sky for at least 5 weeks this morning as I was driving into work. Two directions, one approaching from the north-west and a weaker, less defined one indication a more westerly pattern. It probably won't amount to much today or before Wednesday or Thursday for that matter, but every one here is now preparing for bad weather to start coming in as of Friday.
My best indicator for whether we have bad weather coming in or not is my TV signal for my UK satellite. Normally at this time of year I am playing catch up using i-Player or such. But I have not missed an evening of BBC 3 and 4 (weakest of all my Freeview signals) since the big snow storm in October. That is the first time since I moved into my current flat 6 years ago!
Here's hoping that I lose the Beeb at the end of the week and have to resort to i-Player again!
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
for about 30 seconds 
(there should be a praying emoticon)[/img]
