 Poster: A snowHead
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| davidof wrote: |
Heres one for the French Northern Alps:
Friday:
Precipitation will return from the west overnight, bringing snow around 1000m heavier to the south by midday. Overcast skies at all altitudes will begin to clear during the night above 2200m.
iso 0°: 1700->1300m
Saturday 9th December:
The wind will veer from north to west, becoming strong in the mountains at night. Precipitation may begin around 3pm, but as the weather warms up it will only be snow above 2100m except in the east where it remains colder initially.
iso 0°: 1300->1000->2700m
Sunday
Sustained rainfall below 2700 meters from the late afternoon
So Friday looks good for snowfall then a lot of rain from Sunday evening and the start of the week. As others said above. Probably a bit of a washout below 1500 meters. |
Hopefully, the low lying resorts around GVA should be able to turn the cannons on from the middle of next week ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| franga wrote: |
Hopefully, the low lying resorts around GVA should be able to turn the cannons on from the middle of next week ... |
It is colder in the Jura. les Rousses is already up and running isn't it? Some lifts were running in the Bugey area at the weekend.
They've been pisting like made so that may save the ski runs if the rain is not too sustained.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Whitegold is the messenger blamed.
Alpe d’Huez for example is generally forecast to be warm Sunday to Tuesday with very heavy rain on Monday.
But the big difference from last season is the great early start to snow in much of the Alps and (touch wood) it looks promising from Wednesday.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years. |
WHile I agree that we get more of these really warm fronts these days when I worked my season in Courchevel in, ahem, 93/94 we had great cover in mid december and then a warm wet front came through and made the mountains green to the top of Saulire (2700m?). Fortunately the cold front that followed provided enough cover for a good xmas week. And it went on to be the snowiest season for quite a while (those who remember the crappy dry seasons of the late 80s and early 90s will sympathise).
Climate change (the trend) is very real but the weather (the noise on that trend) is very volatile.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The forecast for the weekend / early next week in the northern Alps has definitely been going in the wrong direction for the last 48 hours. Particularly regarding precipitation, which now looks to be heavy and prolonged.
Here's the latest twice-weekly Skipass.com article on the situation and forecast for the French massifs (Alps, Pyrenees, Massif Central etc.). The author is Thomas Blanchard of Meteo Alpes and I usually find his analysis pretty accurate: https://www.skipass.com/news/meteo-jeudi-7-decembre-neige-montagne.html
| Quote: |
| generally speaking, it's a good start to the season with exceptional snowfall for the start of December in the high mountains over a very large part of the Alps |
And regarding next week:
| Quote: |
| Mild weather in December is not necessarily a problem: if the weather remains dry. But there, the associated humidity will do a lot of harm to the snowpack. Especially since this episode of mildness will last for 4 to 5 days! Clearly, we should be talking about a return to green below 1400/1800 meters depending on the massifs, or even 2000 meters in the Pyrenees, but 1200/1400 meters in the most sheltered Alpine and Jura sectors. |
It sounds bad but remember this covers all the French massifs. For the French (esp. northern) Alps which more snowHeads are interested in, it sounds like he's suggesting that the "return to green" may be up to around 1200-?1600m. Probably highest in the west, lower in inneralpine locations.
Which is bad, but not so unusual for the time of year. (These predictions may also be talking about natural snow cover rather than cannoned pistes where a bulletproof base has been laid.)
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| jedster wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
| A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years. |
WHile I agree that we get more of these really warm fronts these days when I worked my season in Courchevel in, ahem, 93/94 we had great cover in mid december and then a warm wet front came through and made the mountains green to the top of Saulire (2700m?). Fortunately the cold front that followed provided enough cover for a good xmas week. And it went on to be the snowiest season for quite a while (those who remember the crappy dry seasons of the late 80s and early 90s will sympathise).
Climate change (the trend) is very real but the weather (the noise on that trend) is very volatile. |
It dumped and dumped that season. Half a meter on Xmas eve in Meribel and then you were lucky if you got more than 2 blue sky days a week in the first 6 or 7 weeks of the season. I had about 20 steps down to the chalet to clear each time it snowed.....
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zero iso around 1400m this morning, sleeting at that level, turning to rain at around 1000m. Northern French Alps.
Then depending on your forecast more snow on Saturday at 2000m, another front on Sunday at 2000 or 2600m depending on your forecast rising to 2700m on Monday and Tuesday before a return to cold on Wednesday. As previously forecast by others above.
Very warm starts to December are not uncommon.
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| davidof wrote: |
zero iso around 1400m this morning, sleeting at that level, turning to rain at around 1000m. Northern French Alps.
Then depending on your forecast more snow on Saturday at 2000m, another front on Sunday at 2000 or 2600m depending on your forecast rising to 2700m on Monday and Tuesday before a return to cold on Wednesday. As previously forecast by others above.
Very warm starts to December are not uncommon. |
I’ve impression looking at resort forecasts (via Bergfex) for different altitudes that the warmest this little spell will get will be early afternoon 0c isotherms at say 2,400m. [French Alps].
So perhaps fresh snowfall onto the existing snowpack down to 2,000m.
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It was snowing in Bourg Saint Maurice this morning.
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Have to say snow currently falling in Crans Montana, and new snow in Zermatt at village level in both. Their website forecasts show little rain and more snow.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
So perhaps fresh snowfall onto the existing snowpack down to 2,000m. |
Mon/Tues the days to see what happens IMHO, how warm it gets, how much rain falls and what it does to the lower slopes.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Is it my overly-optimistic bias, or is the warm spell next week not quite as warm as was forecast a day or two ago? Wepowder has freezing levels at nearer 2000m than the 2500m it was?
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Weathertoski (Updated: 9.20am Friday 8 December 2023 )
We are expecting around 5-15cm of new snow above 1500m today in the western Alps – i.e. the French Alps, the western Swiss Alps (e.g. Verbier) and some parts of the western Italian Alps, especially in the far south-west (e.g. Prato Nevoso). Indeed, areas close to the Mediterranean like Prato Nevoso and Isola 2000 could see 20cm or more.
Generally, the further east you are in the Alps the lighter and patchier any precipitation will be, with next to nothing for much of Austria (except in the far west where the Arlberg/Vorarlberg area may see 5-10cm later today/tonight). The central and eastern Italian Alps will also see little or no new snow from this storm.
Today’s rain/snow limit will be around 1200-1500m in the more exposed mountains of the western Alps but will remain lower in the more internal valleys of the Alps, including the Swiss Valais.
On Saturday a new storm will arrive from the west but with the rain/snow limit rising towards 2000m late in the day. Later on Sunday, yet another storm will arrive from the west though this one will be dragging in even milder air, heralding a very wet spell of weather for the north-western Alps in particular early next week.
Between Sunday night and Wednesday we are expecting a lot of rain in the northern French and western Swiss Alps in particular, with the rain/snow limit rising to 2400-2700m. As is normally the case in these rainy warm front situations, the further south and east you are in the Alps, the less problematic any rain will be, with the Dolomites, for example, avoiding it completely.
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You know it makes sense.
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Yet meteociel has reduced their rain forecast over the same period.
Oh who to believe…..
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Models for where I'm interested in (Tarentaise) definitely looking less rainpocalyptic than before. I get the feeling everyone is obsessed with last December's truly tiresome warm rainy spell which wrecked what had been a promising early snowfall, but the base is looking much deeper and the warm spell much shorter than Dec 2022.
Forecast wind also not looking excessively Foehn-like, unlike last year again.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Can anyone comment on how the potential rain event may affect Austria (if it will do?)
Planning on an Xmas trip but we haven't booked yet, holding off for price drops and waiting to see where the best conditions will be. Looking at the Arlberg and also around Kitzbuhel/Tirol.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snowmageddon coming above 2200m next week. We must be heading for record Dec snow depths at altitude
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@belette, rain is forecast for Austria but a bit less heavy and the temperature a bit lower, so fewer impacts on snow cover I would think, especially where there's an artificial base.
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I knew there would be a big dump this weekend the moment I closed my browser instead of checking-out the booking I had in my basket for sunweb & easyjet.
Otherwise would be flying to Innsbruck on Sunday for 1/2 a week in St Anton
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I was in St Anton village today (new boots time!) and it was snowing heavily all day, but quite small flakes so the depth didn't really build up more than about 5mm. Visibility was pretty bad up the mountain – people were giving up and coming into the shop instead. The snow continued until about Landeck, then turned to rain through to Innsbruck, so I would guess the snow line is about 1000m at the moment. Valley temperature should drop to -5C tonight, so maybe the rain will turn to more snow?
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How much warmth/rain gets you worried before a trip? Jungfrau region looks like a solid base, but it’ll be +8C and rainy early next week. (Fortunately, the peak should stay between -5 and +1)
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Whitegold.......................hmmmm
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| belette wrote: |
Can anyone comment on how the potential rain event may affect Austria (if it will do?)
Planning on an Xmas trip but we haven't booked yet, holding off for price drops and waiting to see where the best conditions will be. Looking at the Arlberg and also around Kitzbuhel/Tirol. |
According to Bergfex, as has been the case throughout this winter so far, far more favourable in Austria.
At its ‘worst’ next week on Mon/Tues/Weds:
Morzine 1000m - heavy rain, night minima +9c.
St Anton 1300m - night minima +2c, Thursday onwards snow and cold.
Kitzbuhel 800m - night minima +1c, cold from Thursday.
In addition Austria so far has the best early snow conditions in years.
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@Snow&skifan, the freezing level doesn’t seem to be as scarily high as feared though, even in PdS as far as I can see - maybe 2200m - so below about 1500m I think we’ll be back to green for a few days but higher up things should be ok - and this warm/wet spell seems to be pretty short lived. In fact next weekend looks absolutely glorious for a bit of piste action.
I see Morzine/Les Gets have decided not to open this weekend, presumably to protect what they have before the official opening on 16/12.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Snow&skifan, the freezing level doesn’t seem to be as scarily high as feared though, even in PdS as far as I can see - maybe 2200m - so below about 1500m I think we’ll be back to green for a few days but higher up things should be ok - and this warm/wet spell seems to be pretty short lived. In fact next weekend looks absolutely glorious for a bit of piste action.
I see Morzine/Les Gets have decided not to open this weekend, presumably to protect what they have before the official opening on 16/12. |
On both Mon/Tues Morzine is forecast to have overnight minima of +8c and heavy rain.
https://www.bergfex.com/morzine/wetter/berg/
Do you think 2,000m or thereabouts will be the threshold between heavy rain or snow?
The positive over last year is the natural base already accumulated.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Snow&skifan, I was looking at the same forecast as you (Bergfex) and it has the 0º level at 2250m at worst. Meteo France has the snowline about 2200m on Tuesday. Which is better than the 2700m we were seeing a few days ago.
Is there a (significantly) bigger base this year? We were out around the same time as this last year and there was absolutely tons of snow, right to low levels - resulting in me almost getting stuck in the completely flat Casino car park in Morzine! They were also snow-making like mad - I remember sking over huge mounds of artificial on the way back down to Prodains (a run that never closed as far as I can remember).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Snow&skifan, I was looking at the same forecast as you (Bergfex) and it has the 0º level at 2250m at worst. Meteo France has the snowline about 2200m on Tuesday. Which is better than the 2700m we were seeing a few days ago.
Is there a (significantly) bigger base this year? We were out around the same time as this last year and there was absolutely tons of snow, right to low levels - resulting in me almost getting stuck in the completely flat Casino car park in Morzine! They were also snow-making like mad - I remember sking over huge mounds of artificial on the way back down to Prodains (a run that never closed as far as I can remember). |
I was wrongly thinking of Austria with snow, the best in years for this moment. France seems to have had a very slow start.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
I was wrongly thinking of Austria with snow, the best in years for this moment. France seems to have had a very slow start. |
Not all of France. Things looking fine in ADH.
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You know it makes sense.
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The PDS has had a great start. Plenty of snow to low levels.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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It’s apparently great in the PdS @Alpinebear - Avoriaz has been open the last two weekends - it’s just that I think the early December snow was pretty good last year too. And we all know what happened then!
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sat 9-12-23 12:56; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Snow&skifan, what part of France has had a slow start?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
Is there a (significantly) bigger base this year? We were out around the same time as this last year and there was absolutely tons of snow, right to low levels - resulting in me almost getting stuck in the completely flat Casino car park in Morzine! They were also snow-making like mad - I remember sking over huge mounds of artificial on the way back down to Prodains (a run that never closed as far as I can remember).
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Yes - I don't have numbers to back this up, but empirically it feels like a much bigger base than this time in 2022 in the French Alps. Last year we had a series of storms end of November and through December but there were some brutal warm-ups that melted everything down low and did lots of damage up high too. And then of course we were wearing t-shirts on Christmas. I don't think we're entirely in the clear yet this season, but so far the snow that has come has stuck around pretty good, much lower than last year. Hopefully we can escape too much damage next week and get back to the cold snap again!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| coldrainsnow wrote: |
| Yes - I don't have numbers to back this up, but empirically it feels like a much bigger base than this time in 2022 in the French Alps. Last year we had a series of storms end of November and through December but there were some brutal warm-ups that melted everything down low and did lots of damage up high too. And then of course we were wearing t-shirts on Christmas. I don't think we're entirely in the clear yet this season, but so far the snow that has come has stuck around pretty good, much lower than last year. Hopefully we can escape too much damage next week and get back to the cold snap again! |
I agree with that. I arrived in Les Arcs last year on 6 December and up until that point the snow depth wasn’t great, but improved as it snowed for a few days before the resort opened on the 10th. I skied off-piste a bit and it was OK, although thin enough for regular hits. Piste conditions were generally good, especially above 1800m from opening day. Conditions steadily improved as we approached Christmas, although probably a little below average. Then the 2-day deluge arrived on the 23rd, with lower pistes taking a beating and terrain above 2400m getting loaded with a huge depth of dense snow. I’m not in the Alps yet, but from snow reports I think things are in much better shape now, and hopefully a couple of days of rain to 2200m won’t mean conditions deteriorate too much before temperatures drop from Wednesday onwards.
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The warm up and deluge was just before xmas iirc - we were out in Morzine on 10/12 last year and it was epic. Les Gets opened early and there was a ton of snow right down to the village - the real issue last year was after the horrendous rain it stayed warm for about two weeks. Hopefully not what’s going to happen this time!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Interesting, (I think!) question for the meteorologists. Looking at current GFS for Crans Montana and Zermatt, both at 1500 metres or thereabouts, and around 20km apart across the Rhone valley, at village level there is a temperature difference of 7C
for a few days before xmas with Crans being the lower temperature. Could anyone explain why such a difference?
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Hi all, I’ve just tuned in to the prospect of rain next week.
I have flights booked to Innsbruck 17-24th Dec and yet to book accommodation. Is it worth holding out until the middle of next week and look at the dolomites as a backup plan?
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 9-12-23 16:05; edited 1 time in total
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| Quote: |
The warm up and deluge was just before xmas iirc - we were out in Morzine on 10/12 last year and it was epic. Les Gets opened early and there was a ton of snow right down to the village - the real issue last year was after the horrendous rain it stayed warm for about two weeks. Hopefully not what’s going to happen this time!
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Yeah you're right it was pretty nice mid-December - Flaine opened Dec 10 and was open for the next week and it was all pretty good, with a bit of a refresh midweek too iirc. And then Christmas came, and it didn't get cold again until mid-January again.
I've done some great touring this season already though, and it certainly seems like the base is more robust, especially up above 1800 or so. As I type this it's raining at 1000... fingers crossed!!!
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Meteo France say "sustained rain from Sunday night to Tuesday morning". They give the snowline at 1600m on the Italian border but up to 2800m elsewhere.
I don't think it is going to be a total disaster as it will be sustained but not too much quantity.
We'll see.
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Portes du Soleil and areas around Geneva forecast to have higher precipitation but a lower freezing level, compared to less precipitation but higher freezing level as you go south through the French Alps.
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FAQ
