 Poster: A snowHead
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I am no expert here so have to ask
Does it really look like there will be snow every single day in The french alps (3 valleys) next week??
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@hd, Couple of forecasts I have seen have changed, with predicted snow now becoming predicted rain on Wed/Thurs next week. Temperatures look really high at the end of next week, and also high rightnnow at least in Southern Alps. Worrying. I am not a fan of skiing in the rain in the alps, especially as I live in Scotland and fly to the alps to get away from having to do so!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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And more to the north. Saalbach:
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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GFS op run (and hence most weather apps) temps for later next week appear to be on the upper range of the ensemble options as thing stand. Still a way off so let's see what transpires. During my recent SW Swiss visit no matter what the forecasts said the snowline struggled to descend much below 1500m at any time.
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| L0ve2ski wrote: |
I am no expert here so have to ask
Does it really look like there will be snow every single day in The french alps (3 valleys) next week?? |
Based on the latest ensembles, yes ... and HT week (WC 21 February) looks very interesting indeed.
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Following
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How accurate do you all feel that Snow-Forecast website is? Versus for example Windy.
They are basically almost showing opposite weather for next week. Am hoping Snow-Forecast is the one that’s right at the moment
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Snow forecast = GFS model (because free data) in a nice graphical display.
Windy is a different model (forgot which one). But quality of data output is much netter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Onnem,
So you think Windy more accurate?
At the moment Windy is showing snow Monday-friday next week.
Snow-forecast is showing snow starting Sunday evening and on and off until Wednesday evening.
Am obv hoping the latter is correct
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Doesn’t Windy draw from multiple GRIBS?
It’s my go to for sailing, but never thought of it for snow forecasts
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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https://wxcharts.com/ lets you choose all sorts of models (GFS, ECM and a bunch of others) and areas. You can set a particular location to see the forecast for there including snowfall. GFS do a nice "winter" forecast which can be focused on the alps. The ensembles are there too, but you can choose which variable to display.
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Poster: A snowHead
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The 17th precipitation looking stronger
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| twoodwar wrote: |
| The 17th precipitation looking stronger |
But not with a great deal of support at the moment from the other ensemble members. As ever will be interesting to see what happens
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@jimmybog, indeed it’s now gone AWOL
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It seems that the Polar vortex has had a very strong influence on the weather in Europe this January and February and unfortunately it is not going to change. As Judah Cohen said in his latest blog:
"In contrast, European weather seems more sensitive to the strength of the PV, which despite being stretched is strong (as measured by the circulating winds around the PV center). I think the possibility of harsh winter weather across Europe is just about over."
The Polar vortex has been stronger than normal since the middle of November. After New Year, it has been strenghtening and strenghtening. It might reach its strongest level for 40 years for this time of the year in the upcoming week. With this type of polar vortex (and where it has mainly been positioned during Jan/Feb), the cold air stays in the polar areas and you get a classical AO + weather with westerly flows. It gives warm weather for the continent with high pressure influence and strong low pressures in the Northern Atlantic into Iceland/Scotland and Scandinavia. The EC ens forecast for the polar vortex expects the strenght to stay above the 90 percentile until at least the first week of March.
With this in mind, it is no surprise that the EC monthly is showing a very consistent picture. Wet over Northern Atlantic/Scotland and Western Norway, dry over the Azores / Southern Europe. There is hope for percipitation for the Alps in the beginning of the next week and even the Southern Alps might finally see some snow in the beginning of new week. For the rest of the month, the Northern parts of the Alps is again best positioned to receive the snow that might arrive from the north, but most likely, high pressure will be the dominent weather pattern with warmer than normal temperatures.
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@Woosh, I don't think the strong PV had much influence on our weather in January, nor in Nov/Dec. Apart from a 2-3 week dry spell mid Jan most of the alps have a had a good season with the above average strat vortex raging away, obviously more so on the north side of the alps. Here's the season so far, black line is the long term average, blue is actual wind strength this season and red the latest forecast
The positioning of the PV is often more relevant than it's strength, and up to now there has been very little low pressure over Greenland / north atlantic as it was largely blocked, bringing cold and snow over the top and into europe for a decent start to the season. Feb has seen a clear change in that the PV is now back in it's winter default position of the north atlantic, bringing storms and flutuating temps to north western europe. I've read that this is the first time you can see a clear connection between trop and strat vortices spinning in tandem, whereas previously other factors were interferring at trop level. But beyond my knowledge.
The atlantic high has now been flattened and runs from the azores into SW europe, but we are still getting regular top up's of snow, to low altitude like today. It's a risky set up of course in that it can lead to a prolonged mild and dry set up, or it can lead to heavy rain to mid levels. But so far that hasn't happened, and it looks like the southern alps will also catch a break early next week.
No change in the 10-14 day outlook as far as I can see....going to need to stay lucky to benefit from the fasting moving troughs until some more blocking appears.
Time is on our side now though as we are well past peak PV, so at some point, like every year it will begin a sharp slow down, and a final strat warming.....bringing cold air back to the mid lattitudes
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@polo any thoughts on temps going into next weekend? Warm and wet or dry?
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@polo
How do I interpret this chart, and where can I find it?
Stronger zonal winds (in my meteo amateur understanding) mains stronger jetstream, right?
Stronger jetstream, would mean decrease of the persistent blocked high pressure.
And that would be positive news for the western alps, where there is an extreme deficit in precipitation (extemely dry) for weeks on end now.
But what does this figure say about the positioning of the jetstream?
A strong jetstream flowing too far norht (Norway) isn't going to help one bit for the Alps...
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@hd, 8-9 days is too far to predict temps, and for where? NW alps currently looks like temps won't be too far from zero at 1500m...slightly above average, but will change
@Onnem, that chart is just showing stratospheric wind speed at about 25km's above earth. It is an important factor in winter analysis but not really useful for short term forecasting in an area the size of western europe.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php
Sometimes it will have no bearing on the weather in the troposphere (ie the level that affects us, up to 5km high), like we have seen earlier this season, but other times it will override the trop pattern, such as with strong +NAO and AO, and conversely SSW's....ie when the strat winds slow down dramatically, the normal westerly trop flow can also slow down and be associated with blocking at mid and high lattitudes, leading to more meridonal flow and chances of deep cold reaching further south.
So the Pv's are effectively spinning tops...when they slow down they wobble and spill the cold air all over the place 
The jet stream strength is more driven by temperature contrast. The faster and more organized a polar vortex is, the more cold air it traps to the north. So positioned over Greenland / Iceland this cold pool will fire up a strong zonal flow across the warm atlantic, like we have now.
You can still have a strong jet stream with a more wavy / meridonal atlantic like we saw in previous months, it was just arching over the ridge on a more NW-SE line instead of current flat W-E flow
Here's another link to long term strat forecasts....they are worth watching because strat weather is easier to forecast further out than trop, due to the absence of obstacles. It is set to slow down, but no dramatic plunge in sight. Hard to say what impact any of this will have on the alps....I'd assume a dramatic collapse to below average would be best for cold. Either way just keep an eye on the regualr 500mb pressure charts and ensembles
http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html
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@polo, appreciate your points as always and I agree with a lot of what you are writing. December was strange; you had a relative strong polar vortex and in the second half, you had a negative AO. Still, you had a relativly cold and dry start of December in Scandinavia. I also agree that the connection to the ground was weak in January. Still, as I remember the development, the polar vortex has been well positioned through 2022 to give good influence for the jet stream in the Northern Atlantic. The period we are in at the moment has very strong coupling, and I believe it will enforce the large scale development to continue throughout Februray. I also totaly agree with you that positioning is the most significant factor, but the way it has been positioned so far in 2022 (in general) and in the forecast for the next month, it has played a major part in forming the stable condtions. As said earlier, fluctating highs in the Southern part of Northern Atlantic/Southern Europe/UK gives you periods with northern Stau. And those might still happen and might give you intense snow. But as a general prediction with the setup of the polar vortex, I think high pressure will dominant for the southern parts of Europe and low pressure continuing smashing Scandinavia.
In my opinion, polar vortex is the most significant factor for the large scale winter development. You might have several seasons where it does not play a significant part at all, but to get extreme and stuck winters on both sides, it usually is either very strong or you have major SSW with the positioning being right. 2020, 2021 and 2022 have all seen extreme polar vortex developments.
@Onnem, Strong polar vortex ( when positioned right for Europe) in general gives stronger jetstreams. Stronger jet streams means in general more straightforward and less bending. Usually gives warmer weather and strong hits for Iceland/Scotland and Western part of Norway. More highs over the Continent, but that does not mean that you cannot have good hits from the north into the Northern Alps. A strong jet as we have seen since New Year is often a killer for the Southern Alps.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Fri 11-02-22 12:25; edited 2 times in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Woosh, agree with all that
Chatel have recorded 257cm so far this season at 1200m, not sure where that is vs average but it's pretty decent in my books. Looks amazing out there today...
Another blast on monday, and then maybe around the 19-21st. But yeah as above, no sign of any amplification in the atlantic, or blocking to the north, so we're going to have to put up with glancing blows and long sunny spells....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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SW Swissyland
| hd wrote: |
| During my recent Valaisian visit no matter what the forecasts said the snowline struggled to descend much below 1500m at any time. |
For what that is worth 
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You know it makes sense.
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@BobinCH, can't remember what's that like to ski, maybe Monday/Tuesday which kind of figures as OH has gone back to the UK 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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It dropped about a foot of fresh in La Clusaz Haute-Savoie this morning then the sun shone for the afternoon. What more could you ask for
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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GEFS looking a bit warm in the alps from the 17th.
in the northern half of the UK the second half of February is looking cooler and more unsettled than January.
After 13 months of drier and much sunnier weather than average in north east England, it feels like we may finally be returning to a more ‘normal’ set up. Probably not great news though.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bit of divergence in a week’s time in Austria… heavy snow on Bergfex, sunshine on Snow Forecast… I’m guessing it’s to do with timing and position of a modest weather event next weekend that both agree on…
There’s plenty of snow in Austria… I want the sunshine version!
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@BobinCH, dust on crust?
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
Bit of divergence in a week’s time in Austria… heavy snow on Bergfex, sunshine on Snow Forecast… I’m guessing it’s to do with timing and position of a modest weather event next weekend that both agree on…
There’s plenty of snow in Austria… I want the sunshine version! |
Off to Kaiser Brixental in 3 weeks.. hoping the snow lasts til then!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It has been snowing for quite sometime in Verbier / 4 Vallees. From the webcams the pistes seem to be in very good condition. Is it really that bad?
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FAQ
