@südtirolistdeutsch, doubts are always worth having about any forecast two weeks in advance. Doesn’t mean it won’t prove correct.
Yes, that’s entirely true. Not to reveal too much of my ignorance, but what would happen if that low pressure deep dark purple was directly over the Alps?
Obergurgl still planning to open on Thursday. Not as good as some past years, but they've benefited from some of the huge storms creeping over the ridge form the south.
Open from Thursday 15th November:
❄ Festkogel gondola (feeder gondola for Festkogel)
❄ Plattach gondola (from middle station)
❄ Gipfellift
❄ Hohe Mut gondola I and II
❄ Hochgurgl gondola I and II (feeder gondola)
❄ Wurmkogl I and II
❄ Schermer gondola
❄ 15 km of slopes
Kühtai are pretty concerned about their Nov 30th opening. It's about to get colder and, as above, some potential for natural snow in the next week or two... But it's gonna be tight!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Let’s be quite clear here.
There is a fairly obvious difference between possible and likely.
But more importantly there are some people who seem to enjoy posting to spread negativity and make people unhappy.
That seems a bit sad and says more about them than anything else.
It’s a point that ends up needing to be made several times a season. So I guess this won’t be the last. But please don’t make an idiot of yourself when you don’t need to.
If you put people like Whitegold on ignore it makes life instantly more pleasurable.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Layne, perhaps i sould do this. The negativety hurts, but the transparency amuses. Is my glass half full? He's a sad troll. Or half empty? Its never gonna snow again.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Is there a GFS/ECM split with the latest GFS going for a long cold spell but ECM only forecasting a short cold snap?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Layne,
Quote:
If you put people like Whitegold on ignore it makes life instantly more pleasurable.
1++
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Layne,
Quote:
If you put people like Whitegold on ignore it makes life instantly more pleasurable.
Trouble with that is, I've got WG on ignore, but I still can't resist looking at what utter cr*p he's come up with now
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
geoffers wrote:
@Layne,
Quote:
If you put people like Whitegold on ignore it makes life instantly more pleasurable.
Trouble with that is, I've got WG on ignore, but I still can't resist looking at what utter cr*p he's come up with now
If you get curious do post Post Reply and scan down the topic review. But it generally takes away the temptation to engage as reading the thread normally you don't see their posts and you have to take them off ignore to quote them. Whitegold and stanton are the two prevalent posters I ignore.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
In the meantime forecast and conditions looking good for our trip leaving Friday.
I've been following forecasts and there is quite an amazing micro climate going on with a fair amount of precipitation there when elsewhere is dry which I presume is why the operation set up there in the back of beyond*
Luckily forecasts are not for the uber cold of this week, minus 26 !
@snowheads68 there wasn't much cross model agreement yesterday, but improving today so far, UKMO and GEM finally follow GFS path (regressing the high north west). But yes GFS is still the coldest model out there, and looking into deep FI, 12z suggesting 850hpa -12C to -16C isotherm into central europe. Favouring the east at the moment, and we really need to see the winds turn more north than north east to hit the jackpot (esp ECM). Lots of comparisons to 2010 being touted.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Was 2010 bad? (I had taken a hiatus from skiing......dealing with a stroppy new born)
After all it is free
After all it is free
Tignes' local forecast showing very cold on Sunday. Any of the experts have a view on the temperatures and snow for Sunday and the week following?
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
There was a big early snowfall in 2010. It was nearly -20C one night in Worcestershire.
@Chamcham,
Flying out 24/11 not sure any significant fall before then. Colder weather may allow them to use the cannon and complete a run from the Glacier down the Double M into Val Claret
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
yep late nov into early dec'10 had a very similar set up to what GFS is now showing almost exactly 8 years later, strong greenland high, artic lows diving into europe....but we're not quite there yet.
Maybe someone else can get the image to post. I had no success.
New Mexico off to a banner start too although only a few resorts down there. Utah quite grim so far, however.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Yep 12z GFS FI goes deep into the deep freeze.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
FrediKanoute wrote:
Was 2010 bad? (I had taken a hiatus from skiing......dealing with a stroppy new born)
10/11 was pretty poor in Austria from what I remember.
OTOH 12/13 started really slowly, and Jan/Feb was EPICALLY good.
The weather now shouldn't affect the main season, but there are plenty of people who would normally be skiing already and/or have early season trips booked so I think some frustration is understandable!
This is said among the older locals (you know, people who already lived in the mountains before Facebook etc ..). Let's see .... Last winter (2013-2014) started early in the northern Alps but pretty much ended in November. Ischgl knew one of the best openings ever and after that the snowfall in the northern Alps never came. Winter 2001-2002 started early as well. Snow came down in September, followed by a poor winter an this time for the entire Alps. Winter 2002-2003 started early with lots of snow in October and November. December, January and February were relatively dry and only in April, it was on like Donkey Kong again. It was an okay winter for the northern Alps and fine in the Southern Alps. Winter 2007-2008 began with promising record amounts of snow from mid-November. In early December, winter came back, and then it turned out to be a southern winter. A winter, quite the same as the winter of 2013-2014, where the northern Alps never got their share.
We see a number of winters that pretty much confirm this. Early snow in the northern Alps is not good. If we turn this around we get to the following hypothesis: Snow December and especially January in the northern Alps is good.
Snow in december and especially January in the northern Alps is good
There is plenty of 'proof' for this hypothesis. The 1999 avalanche winter started late. Only in January the snow started falling in the north and it just didn't stop anymore. Also winter 2003-2004 had some snow in October in the north, and the south was up next. Until mid-December, the snow didn't come down in the northern Alps but it pretty much snowed for the rest of the season once it started. It was a very good winter in the north and winter continued into May. The same picture is seen in winter 2005-2006. Snow in October and then rather dry. Until mid-December, then it started to snow and it was a very good winter that continued till late april. Winter 2009-2010 only started late and it was late January when it was at full speed. February was particularly good in the northern Alps. Winter 2011-2012: snow in October and warm temps and no snow in November. Winter really started in the middle of December. Winter 2012-2013 brought snow in October and warm temps in November (with lots of snow in the south). Only in December it started to snow and it became a great winter in the northern Alps. Christmas was as often mild, but January and February very good. It was cold.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Whitegold, yawn. Are you still posting here?
Lol.
Don't throw your toys outa the stroller bcos it was wrong
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I just swung through Munich and it is getting much colder in the past 24hrs.
Frosty nights coming.
Good news for the snowguns blasting up in the Austrian, Swiss and German hills.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Some more naive questions if you don’t mind.
When looking at the temperature forecast for a town - for example Arabba. Let’s say they’re predicting night time lows of minus 5. Does this mean the actual village temps are that and a kilometre higher (at 2500m) the temps are normally 5 to 8 degrees lower? Or are they quoting the ‘on the mountain’ temps?
Secondly do the resorts take advantage of low temps to start snowmaking even if it’s due for a warm up a few days later? Or will they normally wait for sustained low temps?
Thirdly how many days (nights) of blowing artificial snow does it take to open a piste given no natural snow? I assume the Austrian hills like those in the Zillertal that seem to be grass (from looking at the webcams) would be easier to cover than gnarly rocky ones?
Thanks in advance?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
clarky999 wrote:
FrediKanoute wrote:
Was 2010 bad? (I had taken a hiatus from skiing......dealing with a stroppy new born)
10/11 was pretty poor in Austria from what I remember.
OTOH 12/13 started really slowly, and Jan/Feb was EPICALLY good.
The weather now shouldn't affect the main season, but there are plenty of people who would normally be skiing already and/or have early season trips booked so I think some frustration is understandable!
This is said among the older locals (you know, people who already lived in the mountains before Facebook etc ..). Let's see .... Last winter (2013-2014) started early in the northern Alps but pretty much ended in November. Ischgl knew one of the best openings ever and after that the snowfall in the northern Alps never came. Winter 2001-2002 started early as well. Snow came down in September, followed by a poor winter an this time for the entire Alps. Winter 2002-2003 started early with lots of snow in October and November. December, January and February were relatively dry and only in April, it was on like Donkey Kong again. It was an okay winter for the northern Alps and fine in the Southern Alps. Winter 2007-2008 began with promising record amounts of snow from mid-November. In early December, winter came back, and then it turned out to be a southern winter. A winter, quite the same as the winter of 2013-2014, where the northern Alps never got their share.
We see a number of winters that pretty much confirm this. Early snow in the northern Alps is not good. If we turn this around we get to the following hypothesis: Snow December and especially January in the northern Alps is good.
Snow in december and especially January in the northern Alps is good
There is plenty of 'proof' for this hypothesis. The 1999 avalanche winter started late. Only in January the snow started falling in the north and it just didn't stop anymore. Also winter 2003-2004 had some snow in October in the north, and the south was up next. Until mid-December, the snow didn't come down in the northern Alps but it pretty much snowed for the rest of the season once it started. It was a very good winter in the north and winter continued into May. The same picture is seen in winter 2005-2006. Snow in October and then rather dry. Until mid-December, then it started to snow and it was a very good winter that continued till late april. Winter 2009-2010 only started late and it was late January when it was at full speed. February was particularly good in the northern Alps. Winter 2011-2012: snow in October and warm temps and no snow in November. Winter really started in the middle of December. Winter 2012-2013 brought snow in October and warm temps in November (with lots of snow in the south). Only in December it started to snow and it became a great winter in the northern Alps. Christmas was as often mild, but January and February very good. It was cold.
Last winter (17-1 in the Arlberg is a notable exception to the hypothesis. Lots of early snow that only improved as December got started. Towards the end of the month temps turned barely mild and then snow came again...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@südtirolistdeutsch, hmm, not sure I agree with that tbh.
Up to Christmas-ish last season was really incredible. I remember dealing with some pretty heavy (as in wet n warm) snow in the Arlberg in mid-Jan, and not really any exceptional snowfall from then onwards - Feb and March weren't anything special. Other than the early stuff I thought it a pretty average season (though average for the Arlberg is still pretty damn good!).
I'm sure there are plenty of exceptions to the hypothesis though - definitely wouldn't make any predictions based on it!
@sbooker, in answer to your first question: usually the forecast temperatures for a resort will be for the town itself, unless otherwise stated. So temperatures further up the mountain are often colder. However, it's not as simple as "the higher you get, the colder it is". Sheltered valley resorts (which include Arabba, I believe) can actually see temperatures fall away overnight quicker than at higher elevations, so you might get an overnight freeze at the top of the hill and at resort level, but not at mid mountain, for example. And in the day, shady valley bottoms don't receive so much sun in midwinter which can depress temperatures (and help preserve snow). I quite like the Snowforecast website as an illustration of this, as it gives temperature forecasts for lower, mid and upper mountain for each resort (and specifies the altitudes of each) along with an overall general freezing level.
Second question - probably depends on resort, and on how close to opening date they are! If temperatures drop next week as forecast, I expect a good number of the resorts due to open in early December will be turning their snow cannons on.
Third question: there's at least one resort (can't remember which) that claims to be able to cover it's entire area of slopes with artificial snow in 3 nights. So a week of low temperatures is probably sufficient unless a piste is unusually rocky (these types of runs tend to be high up though, and perhaps less likely to have snowmaking anyway). Of course, it will begin to melt again if temperatures rise.
I know you're especially interested in the Zillertal (i.e. northeast Alps) as that's where you'll be in a month's time. The cold weather's forecast to be coming in from the northeast, which is a particularly good direction for your region: that side of the Alps should be closest to the source of cold air, and to any potential snowfall brought in by that air. An easterly current could also pick up moisture from the Mediterranean, which might be good for your other bases (Dolomites and Aosta valley).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
denfinella wrote:
@sbooker, in answer to your first question: usually the forecast temperatures for a resort will be for the town itself, unless otherwise stated. So temperatures further up the mountain are often colder. However, it's not as simple as "the higher you get, the colder it is". Sheltered valley resorts (which include Arabba, I believe) can actually see temperatures fall away overnight quicker than at higher elevations, so you might get an overnight freeze at the top of the hill and at resort level, but not at mid mountain, for example. And in the day, shady valley bottoms don't receive so much sun in midwinter which can depress temperatures (and help preserve snow). I quite like the Snowforecast website as an illustration of this, as it gives temperature forecasts for lower, mid and upper mountain for each resort (and specifies the altitudes of each) along with an overall general freezing level.
Second question - probably depends on resort, and on how close to opening date they are! If temperatures drop next week as forecast, I expect a good number of the resorts due to open in early December will be turning their snow cannons on.
Third question: there's at least one resort (can't remember which) that claims to be able to cover it's entire area of slopes with artificial snow in 3 nights. So a week of low temperatures is probably sufficient unless a piste is unusually rocky (these types of runs tend to be high up though, and perhaps less likely to have snowmaking anyway). Of course, it will begin to melt again if temperatures rise.
I know you're especially interested in the Zillertal (i.e. northeast Alps) as that's where you'll be in a month's time. The cold weather's forecast to be coming in from the northeast, which is a particularly good direction for your region: that side of the Alps should be closest to the source of cold air, and to any potential snowfall brought in by that air. An easterly current could also pick up moisture from the Mediterranean, which might be good for your other bases (Dolomites and Aosta valley).
Thanks. Very informative.
First day on skis is set to be 24th December at Kaltenbach. So we’ve got about 40 days to get a base to slide on.
@sbooker, well, 40 days is like an eternity in terms of snow conditions! (But yes, that doesn't stop us checking... I'm already checking the ensembles for the NW Alps daily in advance of a late January trip!)
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
What’s in the mix?
The Arlberg
Chamonix
Cairngorm
Sestriere
Zermatt
Eastern Pyrenees
After all it is free
After all it is free
Looks like the GFS/ECM split has reappeared.
ECM going for just a couple of days of cold.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
yep, not often you see them go almost opposite ways within reliable timeframe (ECM blocks the east, GFS blocks the west). The overall high block above UK is under attack from 3 directions, but since it's been over europe more or less since spring, it's a tough nut. GFS continues to pour out amazing charts days 8-15, supported by FV3 and GEM. UKMO is in the middle at 144, and then ECM goes it's own way after that.
So looking into ECM ensembles, the not-so-great news is mondays update of EC46 (longer term model) keeps high pressure anomalies over UK / scandi for the next month, so dry and cold, but as those are weekly anomalies there's always potential for 3-4 days of better patterns within that, and in any case most of them are too far away to worry about and it's already 3 days old (updates every mon and thurs evening).
The better news, in the nearer term clusters, ECM Op is an outlier. First pic shows the groups of ens at T+168, and the Op is in one of the worst buckets, with HP slipping back into eastern europe. The second pic is t+240, and shows just 2 groupings, again the Op is in the worst one, but it's only a 53/47 split with the group that looks like GFS.
So, blah blah blah, if anyone is still reading, good odds for ECM to swing back towards the other models with blocking more to the west, and north easterlies or better into europe.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Graphs....squiggles....UKMO in the middle at 144.....pregnancy ultrasounds at the bottom of the last post....
All I want to know is when's it gonna ****ing snow?!
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
in the Arlberg is a notable exception to the hypothesis. Lots of early snow that only improved as December got started. Towards the end of the month temps turned barely mild and then snow came again...
