 Poster: A snowHead
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That would be weird. -just long strips of white everywhere, amongst seas of brown.
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That's happened before now - but it won't happen if temperatures stay the way they are. Can't blow snow at lower altitudes with FL over 2000m.
I remember a year before t'internet, with lots of TV news reports of people who had gone for ski holidays at Chrismtas/New Year, in places like Wengen, where there was nothing but grass and they were playing Scrabble and going for healthy walks. No artificial - far too warm.
But it's mid November. I don't remember whether, in the years since we bought our apartment (2002), there was ever snow which stuck around about 1550m, in mid November.
It's far too soon to panic unless anyone was daft enough to book a mid December holiday in a low-altitude resort. 
SHs is full of people reminding other people that Christmas is very early season, and snow is unreliable. Quite right too, but some people forget.....
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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But Pam w, what if it never snowed again? 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ECM continues to see high pressure in charge over Europe for most of it's run.
Obviously in the middle of November it's impossible to say with any confidence what this means for December let alone winter. There are years in the late 80s where the snow arrived very late on in the season and years like 2005 where mild and dry autumns lead to cold and snowy winters.
But at least for now in the reliable time frame it seems that mild or close to average temperatures are likely to prevail and the conditions will be dry.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ps do you back ECM of GFS ?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Pps 5th nov prediction that the month was a right off, pure fluke based on half empty philosophy still got 6 weeks plus till I go so still not worried. Yet
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I didn't disagree that it could be. Just that it was not possible to say that with any confidence at the start of November.
No more than I could say what the weather might be now in mid December.
I would say now that on the basis of this evening's output that it doesn't look likely that the remainder of the month will see much better than average temperatures and continuing dry conditions.
That said at this range and with some if the recent output one couldn't exclude colder and snowier options at the end of the month. But that doesn't look like the most probable outcome to me at present this evening.
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Pam is right. I have been refusing booking at our VT apartment before second week December for fear of being blamed for a lack of snow and a crap holiday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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what if it never snowed again?
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what if it snowed and never stopped? always winter and never Christmas?
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Easy That's called Narnia.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen,
ECM or GFS though is ECM mor accurate because it's closer!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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If either model was consistently wrong over a long period it would soon lose all credibility. That said ECM is run at a higher resolution I believe. Clearly GFS has an extra six days on it's run. And this may be why people say it is better at picking trends (not to say it always does, but if it does the length of it's range means it will be visible).
ECM also produces 32 day ensembles not publically available and CFS has some wacky +1092 ensembles you can find on weatherobline.com. The latter in particular should be treated with huge caution (imagine a straw in a hurricane and that's how much it will change!).
If you want to be really geeky you can keep an eye on how well each of the models is doing (in the six day period). In general the Euros (ECM and UKMO) have been edging GFS over the last month.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 18-11-11 23:51; edited 2 times in total
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Got an email from 'The Absolute Travel Group' this morning, the first line of the email was as follows:
"All the signs are good for a superb winter in Europe this year..."
They must know something I don't...!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ricklovesthepowder, the main problem with that chart is that it is too far out to be worth taking any notice of (it's one of the CFS charts I mentioned above). At that range it will be shifting and changing so much on each run that you'll never have any sense with how seriously to take it (not at all is the answer). Looking at the far end of the ECM run at +240 is highly speculative. A chart at +1092 is pretty meaningless.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Looking at the far end of the ECM run at +240 is highly speculative. A chart at +1092 is pretty meaningless.
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so no matter how much you faff and fuss and worry about it, or how many ski holidays you're trying to sell, nobody has the slightest idea what the weather will be like by Christmas. Thank goodness. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Mac22 wrote: |
Got an email from 'The Absolute Travel Group' this morning, the first line of the email was as follows:
"All the signs are good for a superb winter in Europe this year..."
They must know something I don't...! |
Good winter for summer activity maybe?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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New day. Same pattern. "I got you babe" on the clock radio.
Mild (Eastern Alps) to average (Southern Alps) temperatures. Dry. High pressure out east.
Possibility of cooler than average temperatures between 23 to 25 November.
In FI current trend is for a continuation, high pressure rebuilds to the east and temperatures rise above long term average for the time of year.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Mac22 wrote: |
Got an email from 'The Absolute Travel Group' this morning, the first line of the email was as follows:
"All the signs are good for a superb winter in Europe this year..."
They must know something I don't...! |
I got this email as well, a load of nonsense.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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In FI current trend is for a continuation, high pressure rebuilds to the east and temperatures rise above long term average for the time of year.
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You're just bad news really aren't you 
I am going to check out of this website until Dec 1st to help myself relax about it.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Accuweather are showing snow in Zell am See for 27 to 30 Nov. I know it's 'FI' etc but where (GFS etc) would they get that from?
Mheadbee, is the bee as in Brentford? If so, top man!
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snow-forecast are now showing about 10cm of snow at mid station (2000m) in Courchevel 1850 on the 22-23rd of Nov. Plus if you look on the La Croisette webcam they have some 'blown' snow, not sure if this is just a test to make sure the blowers are working or to see if the ground is cold enough to hold the white stuff.
I'm not going for 52 days so plenty of time but would be nice to see the mountains a bit less green as of right now. No point crossing fingers and toes as the weather will be what it will be. (he says with fingers and toes crossed).
Last edited by After all it is free  on Thu 17-11-11 18:08; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Where,s noza with ECM cross party link!
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Accuweather are showing snow in Zell am See for 27 to 30 Nov. I know it's 'FI' etc but where (GFS etc) would they get that from?
Mheadbee, is the bee as in Brentford? If so, top man!
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Yes you have caught me. Mheadbee is my handle on the Griffin Park grapevine so why confuse myself and have two.
Are you a Brentford fan then?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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ansta1, snow-forecast show snow happening at least once every week of the season... No matter what the models seem to show.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Sure am Mheadbee: New Road, so I moan a lot. Well, some of the time.
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You know it makes sense.
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12z looks even better...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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pam w,
a miracle has happened before Xmas. I agree with you x
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Poster: A snowHead
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stevomcd,
Not so sure 06z looked better to me!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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come on show us all the wiggles!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I didn't say that snow wasn't sometimes forecast every week (though it certainly wasn't forecast every week last year where I was, in the northern French alps). But it IS nonsense to suggest that regardless of what GFS said, snow-forecast would somehow slip in a spurious snowfall.
Snow forecast is OK, if you understand the limits of the GFS and of forecasts generated by computers, not meteorologists, and don't take much notice of stuff too far in advance.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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phillip33, it wasn't completely flat along the bottom. That's "better"!
ansta1, click the links I posted.
With the current kind of weather pattern, I do sometimes think the models can get "locked-in". I have an engineering background and have done some CFD modelling. Obviously, forecasting the weather uses an incredibly complex model but if you feed a simulation a very calm start-point, it is very hard for the simulation to give you anything other than a calm output. Real-life weather has an awful lot of randomness in it to disturb the pattern, but it would take a collosal amount of detail for the computer to pick up on it. I think a more dynamic situation is probably easier to forecast, at least in broad terms.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Timmaah, as far as I can make out snowforecast.com uses the GFS operational run (the thick green line on the ensembles) as it's source. So I'd be rather surprised if it showed much of a discrepancy. That said snowforecast.com updates several hours (3 to 4) after each run comes out which might explain the difference.
stevomcd, yes small changes in the actual (as opposed to predicted) start conditions of each run can have big impacts on the ensembles at the far end of the run.
As for snow over the next week, it looks like the most likely potential is for quite light snowfall round the southern Alps. But nothing very exciting for now. High pressure over Europe still dominates most of the run.
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I'm starting to obsessively check this thread every day now, dammit.
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Piccadilly, +1 to that!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's snowing!
In Lithuania.
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Piccadilly, since April 
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FAQ
