 Poster: A snowHead
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Last two seasons there seems to be a growing difference between East / West early season conditions (anecdotal). Austria and East has always had colder conditions but freezing level in West alps feels much higher at times than in previous years. Is this correct? And other than the obvious what has caused this? Warmer Atlantic / sea temps?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| As said before the current set up is pulling in unprecedented amounts of precipitation but it’s going to be a constant mixture of snow and rain until this pool of tropical air in the south cools down, this didn’t happen last winter till quite late . |
Thermal lag? I remember further up the thread this was dismissed but last summer and autumn were incredibly hot in France (and the UK to some extent). We had heatwaves from April through to October.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Matrix wrote: |
| Last two seasons there seems to be a growing difference between East / West early season conditions (anecdotal). Austria and East has always had colder conditions but freezing level in West alps feels much higher at times than in previous years. Is this correct? And other than the obvious what has caused this? Warmer Atlantic / sea temps? |
In my experience that’s always been the way. For the obvious reason that France in essence feels the same maritime weather effects as us, the Gulf Stream and all that. Whilst Austria has the snow/cold advantage of being hundreds of miles and some huge mountain ranges away from that and closer to cold air masses spreading from Russia/Arctic.
But perhaps exacerbated by climate change, the North Atlantic is warmer.
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A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Matrix wrote: |
| Last two seasons there seems to be a growing difference between East / West early season conditions (anecdotal). Austria and East has always had colder conditions but freezing level in West alps feels much higher at times than in previous years. Is this correct? And other than the obvious what has caused this? Warmer Atlantic / sea temps? |
I think this has always been the case, but even within Austria there’s a noticeable East-West difference. The small ‘low’ resorts around Steiermark and Oberösterreich always seem to have a lower freezing level and more early season valley snow than Tirol.
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Forecast is indeed continuing to look (perhaps increasingly) unpleasant for Sunday to Wednesday next week for the northern and western Alps. Heaviest precipitation in the northwest with a snowline certainly above 2000m, maybe above 2,500m. But how much precipitation is still open to doubt this far out.
Unlike last year's Christmas rainfall event, I think there is generally a better base in place to low altitudes, and most models seem to hint at a return to seasonal temperatures (and more settled weather) beyond next Wednesday which would allow snowmaking to repair some of the damage.
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@denfinella, I was reading back the 22/23 PdS thread last night and what I think/hope is different this time is in December 22 there was a sustained period of absolutely torrential, Gabelou-shifting, rain with a very high LPN, but combined with distinctly warm (10º?) temps ap at 1800-2000m, but also a very warm wind. This was then followed by a long period of warm and pretty dry weather.
This weekend looks like 24 hrs of unpleasant rain (Sunday into Monday), with light winds, but with temps maybe 4-5º, then a fairly swift shift back to something more normal Wednesday/Thursday (with more snow?).
Wepowder (don’t know which models he uses) actually has very little rain forecast in the NW, but he seems to be an outlier!
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@andy from embsay, agree on the heavy Sun-Mon part (maybe +5 or 6C ish at 1500m, but higher further south). I think Tuesday to Wednesday is more uncertain - plenty of model runs going for more rainfall, but also lots going for mostly dry.
Wind will also be a key factor - high winds from a moist source melts snow quickly.
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@denfinella, the winds look mercifully light from what I can see.
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The warm and rainy spell in the French Alps appears to only last Friday to Wednesday.
Signs of good news for Xmas skiers, cold from Friday 15th.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years. |
Few posts on here talked about rain in the 2000s.
Now, in the 2020s, every other post brings up the topic of rain.
Europe is well into the era of global boiling.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
| A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years. |
Few posts on here talked about rain in the 2000s.
Now, in the 2020s, every other post brings up the topic of rain.
Europe is well into the era of global boiling. |
Last season was the eye opener. Val Thorens in Jan and Feb frequently saw rain and temperatures of 10c.
Webcams showed snow at 2,000m being obliterated across the French Alps by relentless rain.
Until then it seemed as winter sports enthusiasts we’d got away with say overall temperatures 1c or 2c higher than they had been in times past, the usual pattern of some arid winters, but never winter temperatures you’d note in Cornwall/Brittany and the rain.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 6-12-23 8:29; edited 1 time in total
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
| A warm spell used to rain up to 2200m. Now it rains up to 2500m or even 2800m. This feels like a new phenomenon that’s got noticeably worse over the last few years. |
Few posts on here talked about rain in the 2000s.
Now, in the 2020s, every other post brings up the topic of rain.
Europe is well into the era of global boiling. |
Last season was the eye opener. Val Thorens in Jan and Feb frequently saw rain and temperatures of 10c.
Webcams showed snow at 2,000m being obliterated across the French Alps by relentless rain.
Until then it seemed as winter sports enthusiasts we’d gotten away with say overall temperatures 1c or 2c higher than they had been in times past, the usual pattern of some arid winters, but never winter temperatures you’d note in Cornwall/Brittany and the rain. |
Nothing new.
Just worse.
Summer heat is now followed by winter heat (in France).
2003 = summer heatwave
2023 = winter heatwave
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You know it makes sense.
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Am I right in thinking there are no snow depth forecasts (not fresh snow falling, the total depth)? Seems like the weather forecasting would be the hard bit and once you have that forecasting the impact on the snow pack would be relatively much easier.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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It feels like the alps are at the point where the UK hills were after the late 1980s with winters becoming more marginal as the snow line crept above the tops much more of the time. Rapid changes from snow to rain and a noticeable lack of periods of persistent cold.
30 years ago the climate change models were predicting periods of heavy wet snow caused by warmer more saturated air masses. That feels something like what we may now be witnessing?
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Poster: A snowHead
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The problem is the Western alps are warming at twice the global rate. Seems like it is the jet stream.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Any thoughts from the (relative) experts on what’s coming Sun-Weds next week based on latest runs?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@andy from embsay, For the most accurate forecast for what I presume you are looking for Morzine /PDS
https://chamonix-meteo.com/ It’s a proper Mountain forecast run it through google translate .
It already has its prediction for early next week but will obviously become more precise as we get closer.
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Thanks @Rob Mackley - I’ve got most of the various forecasts and apps etc but will add that to the list! I was just wondering what folks think the potential effect of 3/4 days of 5/6º and some rain will do. Plus where the uncertainty lies - which seems to me to be the amount of precipitation and how quickly that might turn to snow (looks like Thursday currently?).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@andy from embsay,
You might want to look at this too. I use a combination of this, plus the wigglies and meteoblue.
https://meteo-chamonix.org/
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Thanks @zzz - I think I’ve probably got most of the websites and apps on the go! Also interested in what people’s thoughts are on the amout of damage will be given the current base and hopefully a wee top up on Friday. Meteoblue’s 14 day forecast (and Wepowder) seems to be suggesting the warm-up period will start a bit earlier (Saturday night into Sunday) and maybe end a bit sooner (Tuesday into Wednesday). Main rain spell Monday/Tuesday but Wepowder seems to be dialling the rain volumes down a bit.
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I’m just an enthusiastic amateur. There’s certainly going to be rain Dec 10-14 ish and quite a lot of it, but, we have a lot of snow in the PDS now, especially above 1500m. The base will suffer but it I can’t see it being catastrophic.
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@zzz, Monday/Tuesday looking like the worst spell - how does what’s forecast compare with last year’s Gabelou-Slippage storm? I seem to recall 100mm in a day? 20-30mm looks like what’s forecast this time (so far!).
Last edited by After all it is free  on Wed 6-12-23 15:51; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@andy from embsay,
No where near as bad as the rainfall we had last December, looking at the forecast.
The off piste/touring will be trashed but on piste skiing will be fine, I'm sure, if a little firm.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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andy from embsay and zzz, from what i'm seeing on the Weather sites, they are all reasonably agreed that there will be some warming in the next few days.
But as to just now much warming, and what it will mean regarding precipitation: they really seem to have no idea.
The forecasts change from morning to afternoon to evening - sometimes it seems from hour to hour.
And of course, it depends on which bit of the alps you are interested in.
I'm looking at La Plagne. Other resorts are available and may well have very different weather.
From what I'm seeing in the forecasts over the last day or so: the warming has lessened, and there is more snow with less rain.
It will probably be all change again tomorrow - and that is what makes it all so much fun 
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@Jonpim d’you think they’re not aligned? Everything I can see (ensembles, some amateurish looking at weather maps, various forecasts) suggests for the NW alps (PdS etc) at least pretty much all the models align on a warm spell of 3-4 days (Sunday to Wednesday), which will see FL rise to something over 2000m, 5-6º at 1500m - the main uncertainty seems to be how much rain and when. The worst seems to be Monday, when there could be 50mm of rain over the day.
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You know it makes sense.
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Ok so looks like for here(ADH) baltic at the moment, snow Friday followed by a couple of days of some rain followed by a return to snow and baltic again hopefully for the Christmas arrivals.
Not that bad.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Webcams across the alpes are looking fantastic. Lots cold nights which had let them build up piles of man made snow on top of the natural base. A few warm days and light rain should not be a problem. Here's to a great season.
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Poster: A snowHead
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France and elsewhere are on track for 50-100mm of rain and 5-10c between Sat and Tues.
Some lower trails in the western Alps will be greener than Greta's front garden by this time next week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Whitegold care to commit to anything more specific? France is a big country. Lower trails could mean anything
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Some lower trails in the western Alps will be greener than Greta's front garden by this time next week. |
I hate to think what Greta's front garden is like. Probably colder than the Alps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Boarderfarce wrote: |
| @Whitegold care to commit to anything more specific? France is a big country. Lower trails could mean anything |
Plenty forecasts out there.
Chatel (1200m) currently has 110mm of rainfall lined up for Sat to Tues.
That's well over a month's rainfall -- in 4 days.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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What do you all use to find freezing levels? I looked at soundings for this weekend around some of the higher elevation resorts (for example Val d'Isere), and they don't look terrible, but I'm probably missing something
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Zero iso in Italy currently on track to go as high as 3200m on Sun.
That's the kind of level you'd expect to see in Aug, not Dec.
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Forecast to rain up to 2300m in Western alps but it will get cold again later in the week so don’t sweat it unless you are skiing early next week which may be a bit miserable. Saturday looks pretty good though and Sunday may be ok. And looks good again from next Friday onwards
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Heres one for the French Northern Alps:
Friday:
Precipitation will return from the west overnight, bringing snow around 1000m heavier to the south by midday. Overcast skies at all altitudes will begin to clear during the night above 2200m.
iso 0°: 1700->1300m
Saturday 9th December:
The wind will veer from north to west, becoming strong in the mountains at night. Precipitation may begin around 3pm, but as the weather warms up it will only be snow above 2100m except in the east where it remains colder initially.
iso 0°: 1300->1000->2700m
Sunday
Sustained rainfall below 2700 meters from the late afternoon
So Friday looks good for snowfall then a lot of rain from Sunday evening and the start of the week. As others said above. Probably a bit of a washout below 1500 meters.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Zero iso in Italy currently on track to go as high as 3200m on Sun.
That's the kind of level you'd expect to see in Aug, not Dec. |
@Whitegold ... never, ever become a motivational and wellbeing coach
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