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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The snow will be pushing up into the Alps from the south.



Hence why the southern Alps will potentially see a lot of snow (over a metre quite possible in the middle of next week). The south and west of the Alps look like being where the action is focussed.

The latest output looks cold for Scotland though not especially snowy.
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Looking good, hopefully this snow will now stick around with much more to follow Madeye-Smiley
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nozawaonsen wrote:
The latest output looks cold for Scotland though not especially snowy.

It's at least positive on the cold front though with the likeliehood of some snow which is a definite improvement and at least Cairngorm can start using the new snow cannons they just took delivery of snowHead
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18z another good run with snow arriving in the west late on 26 November into 27 November. The eastern Alps have to wait till a bit later, but a lot of snow to the southern and western end of the Alps by the middle of next week.
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what...snow wrote:
(the snow is) coming from the North/NorthEast.


But, Nozawaonsen said,
Quote:
The snow will be pushing up into the Alps from the south.


So, that's told you, then! rolling eyes wink
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nozawaonsen, when you talk about western, southern and eastern parts of the Alps, how exactly do you define those areas in terms of coutnries and ski resorts? Thanks.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


HISTALP has a useful map, but I tend to think of the Eastern Alps as roughly east of a line between Lake Constance (Bodensee) and Lake Como (so further west than it appears on the HISTALP map).

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nozawaonsen, thanks - and when you say southern? I'm not trying to pick holes in your geography, just trying to understand your terminology Smile
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Ray Zorro, have a look at the HISTALP link above and keep in mind that "exact" isn't a word I'd apply to this. If you want to get a sense of the likely spread over the next week take a look at the map at the top of the previous page.
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^ will that be the 'sudalpen'? wink Toofy Grin
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Quite a foehn kicking up as the storm comes in next week.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html

Continuing tendency to slip it back in the models 27-29 now looking the main dates. But we are catching it faster than it is moving away.

And some chilly temperatures starting to crop up in the charts for the end of next week.



Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Fri 30-11-12 0:09; edited 2 times in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
looks like the french resorts are bang in the midst of the 107-157 from the previous page

heavy heavy snowfall....bodes well
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
stefoy4me, looks like the southern French resorts at the mo, Isola, LDA, milkyway, S-C etc.

I love this '3 days away' stage, each 6hr wiggly run slightly different, playing with us, tempting, teasing with the 'twin imposters of triumph and despair'
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

when you say southern?

It's startling what a difference there can be in the weather and snow cover if you drive down into Italy through the Mont Blanc or Fréjus Tunnels. I guess the N/S divide will be very wiggly line depending on the local topography. For example, Courmayeur/Chamonix are very close in terms of miles (people ski it) but the difference between the weather they get is much greater than the difference between places much further apart in other directions. Last February I drove through Fréjus on one of the snowiest days of the last several years; there were literally a dozen snowploughs working to clear the enormous car park at Géant in Albertville, traffic on just one lane of the motorway in convoys behind ploughs. Out the other side was a different world; mostly bare rock and brown, dried up pastures. That big chunk of mountain dictates who gets what.

I imagine there can be similar big differences between, say, Innsbruck and the Dolomite resorts. The east/west dividing line is presumably a lot less stark, and more ill-defined (if a bit straighter).

The area where my apartment is tends to be described as the "préalpes" in French forecasts.
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red 27 wrote:
I love this '3 days away' stage, each 6hr wiggly run slightly different, playing with us, tempting, teasing with the 'twin imposters of triumph and despair'
Just like a rather lovely girl I used to know in university.
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^ lol Laughing
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pam w wrote:
It's startling what a difference there can be in the weather and snow cover if you drive down into Italy through the Mont Blanc or Fréjus Tunnels.
A few years ago I was driving back to Geneva on the old A41 (now the A410) and there is a little bit of a hill which goes up to about 800m (Col d'Evires). Driving up the hill it was raining, but the moment you crested the hill and started down the other side it was heavy snow with about 3 or 4 inches of slush on the road. Guess there was some localised effect.
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rob@rar wrote:
red 27 wrote:
I love this '3 days away' stage, each 6hr wiggly run slightly different, playing with us, tempting, teasing with the 'twin imposters of triumph and despair'
Just like a rather lovely girl I used to know in university.


Laughing Think we all knew one of those in our uni days!!!!
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jellemr, was probly the same one
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I have held off, but it's time for my annual post!!

Does this mean snow for the lesser known Piemonte resorts?

Mondole and Limone Piemonte areas?

PLEASE!

We are going over for Christmas and it would be great to be skiing and not hiking!!


Thanks!!
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adam.b... Yes.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Quite a foehn kicking up as the storm comes in next week.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html

Continuing tendency to slip it back in the models 27-29 now looking the main dates. But we are catching it faster than it is moving away.

And some chilly temperatures starting to crop up in the charts for the end of next week.



Hi Noz

Please can you explain the Foehn, is this a good or bad thing ? Cheers
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rob@rar, you get those very localised effects, with quite small hills, on the A40 between Bourg en Bresse and Geneva too. The weather on either side of those long tunnels can be startlingly different. they have illuminated signs before you exit, giving warning of rain or snow, which are quite useful. I once drove out into very heavy snow - where there was just cold damp the other side. Persisted for some miles, but conditions weren't good and it was dark, so stopped off near Bourg en Bresse for the night.

It's exciting thinking now about driving in the snow.... won't be long. Getting the snow tyres on next week. Then a quick practice with the chains, and off to go.

harri20000, the foehn is generally a bad thing, also knows as the Snow Eater (or "the F-Word"). Someone with more technical knowledge will explain why.
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Oh boy. BIG snow next week then! Much excitement in this thread Very Happy Very Happy


I will be happy to lose the fantasy snow game.
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a foehn is a wind caused by cold air on one side of a hill forcing the warm air over the mountain and down into the next valley, the warm air then starts eating up all the snow cover.

there quite common though and not totally destructive to the snow cover.

we had one in chamonix in the summer that actually reached around 130kmh an hour though....it bulldozed most of chamonix town centre and felled hundreds of tree's!!
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one odd effect of a couple of days foehn is that where unpisted areas have been tracked, with ski tracks indented into the snow, they end up standing up above the surroundings, like railway lines - because they were more consolidated and therefore resistant to the wind, I suppose. same can happen with footprints, where people have walked. It looks very strange.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Thanks for the explanations folks, hopefully this will not happen once all this predicted snow has hit as will be a major let down if the snow all disappears as quick as it arrives !

Still I have 49 days till my trip so plenty of time for more snow to fall, if the snow gods would be so kind that is snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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harri20000,

As others have said a föhn (or foehn) wind can be a Very Bad Thing. If the effect is strong the snow doesn't even bother turning into liquid water - it sublimates straight into vapour. It's called a Chinook in North America where the record temperature rise is -48 to 9°C in 24 hours!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foehn_wind

A close friend of mine is a glider pilot - and they love föhn winds because they are associated with Mountain Wave which can take them up to silly heights. They can also produce lovely lenticular clouds like this one over Mont Blanc -

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 Poster: A snowHead
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Red Leon, 'So, that's told you, then! '

No, he's answering a different question. The words in parenthesis you have put in make it look like we answered the same question but we are both right. The SYSTEM is coming from the Northeast, which was the question asked, just look at any of the models. Wind and Precipitation rotate clockwise around low pressure areas within the cold airmass so the snowfall will come from different directions. The particular chart noza has put up shows the LP centred over Lake Geneva approx with a pronounced kink over NE Italy and Tirol, where the snow would fall on a southerly wind. The placement of the LP changes on every run, but it is likely to end up roughly there at roughly that time in 6 days. For example the latest run (today's 6Z) has the same kink but the LP centred over Marseille instead.

I'm not sure why noza thinks it's not particularly snowy for Scotland. Lowering FLs and a warm North Sea = this from MWIS: 'There is now significant evidence of early December being very cold: most mountain terrain becoming frozen and snowfall on at least northern and eastern mountains'. The is a reasonable chance of significant snowfall all over the UK in 1-2weeks (ie from next weekend) and it's as certain as it gets for the Cairngorms. snowHead

Love the photo above of Mont Blanc and the lenticularis cloud.


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 23-11-12 21:49; edited 1 time in total
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agw

Thanks for the explanation, that is a phenomenal temperature jump ! -48 to +9 in 24 hours !! Shocked
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wigglies looking good for Val D'Isere/Tignes and hints of perhaps some more snow around the 1st-3rd and 7-9th Dec (but all too far away.....)
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chamonix-meteo as ever have a very succinct view for next week:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL THURSDAY NOVEMBER 29 2012
Tuesday : fœhn wind still blowing, with shower possibly running over from the south - uncertain. Wednesday : cold front crossing over with possibly heavy snowfall - uncertain. Thursday : cold and snowy - rain-snow limit dropping towards 700 m - very uncertain.

source: http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/evening/6_days_weather_forecast.php
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kitenski wrote:
chamonix-meteo as ever have a very succinct view for next week:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL THURSDAY NOVEMBER 29 2012
Tuesday : fœhn wind still blowing, with shower possibly running over from the south - uncertain. Wednesday : cold front crossing over with possibly heavy snowfall - uncertain. Thursday : cold and snowy - rain-snow limit dropping towards 700 m - very uncertain.

source: http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/evening/6_days_weather_forecast.php


Well it would be nice to see the Foehn go first, and then the cold storm front to come in after, rather than the other way around. That low FL sounds good too.
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Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 25-11-12 1:27; edited 1 time in total
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Well for the Alps the weather, the snow, the wind and the jet stream are coming from the south for the middle of next week.



This means the southern Alps will benefit more from the snowfall than the northern Alps.

What I said for Scotland was "the latest output looks cold for Scotland though not especially snowy." It still looks cold for next week and there will be snow, but it does not look like large amounts compared to what you might expect on the Scottish mountains at this time of year.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
adam.b... Yes.


You are TOPS!

Thanks
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Here's how WRF sees the coming snow:

Monday evening 1800

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=60#model

Tuesday morning 0600

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=72#model

Tuesday night 0000

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=87#model

Wednesday morning 0600

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=96#model

Wednesday evening 1800

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=108#model

Thursday morning 0900

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=123#model
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