 Poster: A snowHead
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In Munich today and it is 1 degree with fog and 'feels' cold.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Manchester was 8c today and also felt quite cold. Hopefully a sign of things to come!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| moffatross, indeed. Be interesting to see if any of the FI good times make it through to this evening! |
Well, the GFS has just outlooked a nice, 'zonal' operational run from the 12Z which demolishes the flabby, dull, mild fetching high pressure presently sitting out east. Not an exceptionally cold one by any means but cold enough where it counts to start putting snow in the usual gullies in Scotland as early as next Monday/Tuesday to and then to bring quite a lot of snow to low levels in the Alps by next Thursday. It's then followed up by good old fashioned cool zonality by the end of week 2.
Fingers crossed that its ensemble & the ECM later on suggest some kind of an end to the ennui too. 
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Yup the 12z GFS operational has reinstalled snow on the 19 and 20 November in the Southern French Alps in a line below Alpe D'Huez (though it doesn't manage to rally many of the other ensembles to it's side).
Apart from that the high res pattern for the Alps is the same. Gradually cooling towards average for November (though under clearer skies much colder overnight and first thing). High pressure out east.
It's in low res it get's interesting (and that may be the flaw) with cooler temperatures and snow across the Alps in 23 and 24 November.
ECM still more cautious and still keener to hold onto high pressure.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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How about a 'crock' of snow? Surely it's just as precious as gold?!!
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Nevermind all this new-fangled '12kHz GPS' and 'Fahrenheit' nonsense. The old ways are the best.
It is b*llocky* cold this morning, and there are some grim looking black clouds hovering menacingly over the east side of the lake.
It is definitely going to snow in the next week. I can feel it. In my "waters".
* There are only, in fact, 6 levels of temperature:
1) B*llocky cold.
2) B*stard cold.
3) Cold
4) Warm
5) Hot
6) Sweating like Gary Glitter waiting to get his computer from the repair desk at PC World.
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paulio, Or even more simply its cold enough for the snow cannons in Tignes at 0900 this morning - 
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paulio, I have found that there is a colder version of B*llocky cold which is pick them off the ground becuase they have fallen off cold
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here's a list of ensembles.
Les Deux Alpes.
Chamonix.
The Arlberg.
Hintertux.
Sestriere.
Folgaria.
Zermatt.
Cairngorm.
Temperatures are returning towards seasonal average in the western Alps (which is quite cold in the second half of November), still milder than average in the eastern Alps, though again colder overnight.
Still some suggestions of snow in the southern French Alps on 19 November, though it doesn't look that substantial.
And still support for snow arriving in the Alps on 23/24 November.
At which point... The 00z GFS operational takes things "proper" b*llocky cold from the east and keeps it that way for the rest of the run.
That said firstly it's way in the distance and secondly was a real outlier in the ensembles. But interesting.
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time to get that wood delivered i reckon
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Is it a little early to all start the snow dance ?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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meanwhile.....Still snowing in Niseko. 20cm+ has fallen during the day at village level with more higher up http://fb.me/1drg6yq10
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You know it makes sense.
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kitenski, planning a trip there this season?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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cairngorm ensemble looks promising
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Poster: A snowHead
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| shoogly wrote: |
| cairngorm ensemble looks promising |
I move to the bloody Alps, and my best chance of a slide is a flight to bloody Scotland.
TYPICAL.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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paulio, i'd say your best chance of a slide is still the alps
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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paulio, Grande Motte?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yes, my motte is fine thank you.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Arno wrote: |
| kitenski, planning a trip there this season? |
Yes
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nozawaonsen, I'm likely being thick here but wonder if you can explain the Arlberg graph for me? It appears to start getting interesting about 23rd November I think (but dont really know what I'm looking at!), which line should I be looking at, and whats the key things to take from the info. Is it readily available or is this someting you access on behalf of SH and post regularly?....... great info BTW.
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It's turned colder here this week in Friedrichshafen. I don't think it got above 2degC today.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Markymark29, top line is temp. bottom line is precipitation. when the top one goes down and the bottom one goes up at the same time, then we're all happy snowheads If the opposite happens, then we're all depressed grumpy sods.
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Markymark29, read the sticky called beginners guide to gfs...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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These wiggles are like the wife, all over the place and no idea someone make some sense of it please
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moffatross, That chart is a thing of beauty.
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You know it makes sense.
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thats why it's called Fantasy Island....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Continues to be tricky this evening.
GFS is throwing some aggressive and beguiling control and operational runs for cold and some snow. That isn't a bad thing.
But, they all sit behind the low res barrier and until things start moving within +192, preferably +144, then it remains difficult.
Moreover ECM maintains it's crush on high pressure out east and simply can't seem to give it up.
In summary in the reliable time frame cooling temperatures (more so in the west than east for now), but still dry.
Longer term options are building for a colder and snowier end to the month and start to December, but whether it will turn into something with teeth is yet to be seen.
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's definitely finally turning a bit chillier in the Lake Geneva region, but still very dry and sunny and no real sign from a forecast that I have seen for rain/snow for another week at least.
I've booked to get my winter tyres put on this Thursday....so don't expect snow until I take them off in May.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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isnt this "blocking high" a regular feature during a typical winter, it will budge, it's just a case of when? I seem to remember similiar situations in a fair few winters previous....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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kitenski, like all of last winter? 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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kitenski, If you're interested in blocking this is worth a look at:
Blocking the way
"The Jury's still out on how blocks develop, how they become persistent, and how they break down" [Richard Neale]
Clearly blocking in different places (over Greenland) created very different outcomes in the last two winters. This autumn (and obviously we're not even into winter yet!) has seen blocking lead to a much milder and drier period for much of Europe. The problem blocks present is that though you might pick up indications that they are likely, predicting when, where and for how long they might kick in for is tricky.
Of course if it were to shift further north, to Scandinavia for example, it would lead to colder temperatures from the east. If it shifted much further west it would draw in cold air from the north.
The problem is not the block, rather than where it is right now...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This morning's outlook is very similar to recent days. Both ECM and GFS now see high pressure holding away any potential snowfall in the southern French Alps over the weekend. Any precipitation looks like being held further west, which might bring some snowfall to the Pyrenees.
Further out the models continue to diverge with ECM still focussed on high pressure over Europe whilst GFS sees it shifting further west allowing cold air to pour over the top and into the Alps.
Clearly the GFS option would be preferable, but it remains unclear if it will prevail.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Very little to like about 12z GFS.
Keeps things dry all through high res (ie up to 25 November), then keeps things by and large dry and relatively mild for the remainder of the run.
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Yes but this morning was much better, can't trust them there all over the place,
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| Yes but this morning was much better, can't trust them there all over the place, |
Err, no, that's weather forecasting, it changes,
alot,
regularly,
especially the further out you look.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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kitenski,
Agree just wish it would change for the better and stay that way, but thanks for the clever advice
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Now that it's colder some resorts seem to be working their snow canons overtime, judging from the webcam pictures. November looks like producing no natural snowfall in the Alps. What if December were the same, so that all we had to ski on at Christmas was artificial snow. That would be weird. -just long strips of white everywhere, amongst seas of brown. Here's praying for real snow.
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