brian, cheers, this could really skupper my hockey season...
Now when is the next storm due to hit Scotland, I wonder if I can sneak up next week......
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
brian wrote:
kitenski, certainly nothing you'd call approaching mild on the cards in the next week or so. Chances are if you have good snow cover now you'll still have it next Friday.
good news that...
says he who has next week off work to go skiing
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
kitenski, from 06z GFS...
Saturday could see some cold rain in mid down to south of UK. Possibly snow in parts of Wales and parts of Kent. How temperatures come out obviously key as it is right on edge. Should also bring snow to north east Scotland.
As discussed Tuesday/Wednesday low pressure will pass south of UK on it's way towards the Alps. Possibly clipping the south coast, south west with a rainy wintery mix. At same time another low pressure will be coming down past Scandinavia which should bring more snow to north east Scotland and later to north east England.
By and large temperatures will be cold, probably not as cold as last couple of days (so a warm up in that sense). Colder again by Friday.
"UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Dec 2010 to Saturday 1 Jan 2011:
For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.
Updated: 1214 on Fri 3 Dec 2010"
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 3-12-10 16:14; edited 2 times in total
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, blimey I wonder if we will keep the lying snow til 2011
A wintry mix looks likely
Into the new week, it will remain very cold for many with further snow showers likely, especially around some coastal areas, and widespread overnight frosts.
There is a chance that more persistent rain, sleet and snow may try to spread into the southern half of the UK for a time, making it slightly less cold here.
Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
Through to Christmas
Confidence becomes much lower as we look further ahead into the Christmas week.
There is a signal that the severity of the cold spell will ease, although with temperatures still a little below normal. This suggests there is still scope for some snow and frost, but it may be more marginal.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here's 12z's view of the far end of FI (19 December).
Blocking high pressure over Greenland, cold flooding down over Europe. Risk of snow over much of UK though especially in the North and East of UK... Can't think why, but it seems a bit familiar
brian
brian Guest
Not sounding too desperate in Switzerland at this stage:
"Limite des chutes de neige remontant rapidement au-dessus de 1000 à 1500 m, mais pouvant rester jusqu'en plaine au nord du pays. Fort dégel attendu pour lundi soir ou mardi matin. Probablement un risque de pluies verglaçantes dans la journée de lundi."
Freezing rain mentioned for Monday is where arriving warm air rides up over the top of cold air at the surface. So rain falling from above into the cold air freezes on the way down. Ice storms etc. Not nice.
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brian, OK, NOW may I ask what's going to happen in Tignes 5th to 12th? Please. Nicely. Thank you.
brian
brian Guest
Hurtle, but of course, you only had to ask.
On the 5th, it'll cloud over and the wind will get up followed by a fairly hefty old dump of snow which will last right through Monday and into Tuesday. At the main parts of Tignes above 2000m it should be snow all the way through, although it might be a bit heavy lower down and will probably rain in the lower villages. When it clears you'll have glorious powder high up. In the second half of the week it'll turn much colder as the wind swings to the north (possibly quite a strong wind for a time) but should be mostly dry and bright. Probably fine weather into the next weekend.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Hurtle pack helmets, snow chains, see-in-the-dark-goggles and a good bed. Pray to God and Jane Goody, watch those inner tips and try to ignore the smell of vomit in the corridors.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
brian, thank you very, very much. I think I'm looking forward to it, subject to not freezing to death.
red 27, OK, will do. Luckily, though, I'm not staying in the vomit-ridden establishment.
All in all 18z FI considering some very serious weather options. All FI of course. Those particular charts are unlikely to come off at this range, but a lot of support for blocking and a return to colder options through December. And the UK could be tested during December.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The combined power of the biggest north and south American weather authority supercomputers churns out this 16 day pressure anomaly as the average of about 60 runs from 3 models.
The UK would be paralysed by the time Xmas arrived.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like Monday/Tuesday's rain will be nothing more than a blip that moistens the existing snow cover which then gets frozen solid into a season-sustaining perma-frost base
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
00z this morning continues to paint a picture of a two to three day warm up in the Alps early next week before temperatures tumble all the way down again over Wednesday night... Dropping 20C in some places by next weekend!
It looks like there will be precipitation all through this period (heavy in the west). This does mean rain at low levels looks possible, but certainly a lot of snow at higher altitudes. And some places (in the eastern alps?) look like the precipitation will continue through into the subsequent colder period, though never quite with the intensity of the west.
UK FI continues to look cold, perhaps not quite as apocalyptically so as last night! But the potential is there.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
scotia, where and when are you looking at? Depending where it is and what altitude you might be better off using 850 or T2m to get an idea of temperature? 500hpa gives you an idea of temperature at (roughly) 5500m above sea level, layers of air at lower levels can vary quite a bit, so I would be a little wary of trying to draw a precise conclusion (someone else might have a better answer?).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
a lot of snow at higher altitudes.
Much higher altitudes. Rain to 2200m according to Chamonix meteo, which usually gets it about right.
brian
brian Guest
With the thaw of lying snow plus torrential rain, there is going to be a helluva lot of water coming down those hillsides. It's extremely difficult to predict where the rain/snow limit will be as there will be pockets of cold air in the valleys, newly arriving warm air coming over the top, etc. but for the western alps I think we can safely say there'll be a big snow gain above 2500m and a pretty devastating snow loss below 2000m.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, one of the 3 'scary' charts you posted...
After all it is free
After all it is free
So what it look like for Tignes Tues- Thurs 7th-9th? Not sure if I am going to get wet or a load of snow. Any expert opinion would be great
Cheers
Smag
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Off to Chamonix on Friday so checking each model run. As an amateur weatherhead, if ground temp and dewpoint are 1 and 0 degrees does it matter if 850 hpa shows a readingof 5 degrees? it would be a monstrous dump or snow. Start praying to the snow gods .
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
hmm, looks like France is going to get a royal soaking over the next few days. I guess the good work of the last few weeks of cold and regular snow to low levels is about to disappear before our very eyes at say 1000-1500m then
Could be a proper pendulum swing from great start to muddy in 72hrs....cr*p just glad i'm not packed up and awaiting to go away this week
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
skinutter wrote:
hmm, looks like France is going to get a royal soaking over the next few days. I guess the good work of the last few weeks of cold and regular snow to low levels is about to disappear before our very eyes at say 1000-1500m then
Could be a proper pendulum swing from great start to muddy in 72hrs....cr*p just glad i'm not packed up and awaiting to go away this week
So with Tignes lowest slope being at 1550, should we be ok and not need to take the umbrella
cheers
Smag
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
smagsmith, read what brian, says above - if wigglies are about right freezing level is about 22-2300m, which in combination with the weird "it's snowing so that makes it colder" might just drop it down to tignes level.
My advice, get on the funicular (dry) get up to the glacier (snow) stay up there all day in the snow (if you can see) and come down when you're knackered. retire to bar. repeat as necessary (until thurs) enjoy.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:
My advice, get on the funicular (dry) get up to the glacier (snow) stay up there all day in the snow (if you can see) and come down when you're knackered. retire to bar. repeat as necessary
+1. It is going to be pouring with rain at 1550m and in Chamonix too, except above 2200m or so. It looks as though it will change to snow as the FL drops but not without very heavy rainfall beforehand.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The ensembles below are for the Chamonix area.
As the initial snow fall comes in both the temperature and the amount of precipitation rise steeply (the operational run amplifies both the temperature rise and the precipitation).
Initially (briefly) then it looks like fairly strong snowfall at low levels, but very quickly as the temperature rises it looks likely to turn to heavy rain with freezing levels briefly peaking (if the operational is right) at around 2300m+ on Monday. By Tuesday morning the freezing level looks to fall a little to around 2000m+ and the precipitation will have dropped off too. Although Wednesday may see some further lighter rainfall up to 2000m+ the next twist will be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning when temperatures drop even more rapidly than they rose. This will be accompanied by initial rain up to 2000m followed by snow right down to the bottom of the valleys as the temperatures plummet.
As several people have flagged up there is a complicating factor in determining quite how things will evolve as it is unclear quite how the warmer air moving in from the Atlantic will mix with the cold surface air blanketing Europe at present which could determine how the precipitation falls (rain, freezing rain, graupel, snow). That said there is clearly going to be quite a bit of rain about...
Further east in Austria the amount of precipitation will be lower, although there too there will be a similar rise in temperature (though probably not quite so high) and it looks like more snow will fall later in the week when temperatures are considerably lower.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sun 5-12-10 23:34; edited 1 time in total
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
What's the uk scene doing? Bbc country file said warming up by end of the week, but that the cold was due to return fairly quickly???
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski, how about this for FI?
That would seriously shut things down...
Looks like it will be a bit warmer over the next weekend (certainly compared to last week). Then cold driving in again from the middle of the month...
Met Office still consistent on second half and into next year being "below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and ice... further snowfall a distinct possibility in some places."
Brian Gaze at The Weather Outlook invokes 1963...
"Pressure patterns look like 1963
Posted Sun, 05 Dec 2010 19:43:23
The coldest winter of the last century in most of Britain (parts of Scotland were milder) was 1963. It was notable for high pressure building over and to the north of the UK for several months with little break. This blocked the flow of weather systems from the Atlantic which usually bring wet and mild weather to Britain from the west. At the moment I’m seeing something very similar this year. A number of experts have told me that this cold spell wouldn’t last, because stratospheric temperatures were cooling, and/or this is a La Nina winter, and that means a short cold spell at the beginning of the winter, before wet and windy weather quickly begins to kick in. But if the computer models (and our December forecast) are correct, we’re looking at another 2 – 3 weeks min of predominantly cold conditions. That would mean we’d have had 5 or 6 weeks of cold weather, and it we’d still only be at the beginning of January, when traditionally wintry weather begins in the UK! Interesting times ahead.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com
Previous posts
Severe cold possible south east – heads up
Cold conditions on the way during the coming week, and in many places temperatures will struggle to rise above 0C during the day. It’s increasingly looking likely that as we go through the middle of the month things will get even worse, with the risk of south eastern parts of England facing the brunt of a spell of severe cold in the run up to Xmas. Records could be broken this month. Snow? There’s sure to be more during the next few weeks, but as ever, predicting where it will fall is a day by day job.
Posted at Sun, 05 Dec 2010 08:20:14"
Most of the recent runs have continued to show significant blocking - today's runs possibly slightly less aggressive than the last couple of days (and one or two exploring some slightly milder options - relatively speaking mind), but for now the trend for the future remains cold.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 6-12-10 0:27; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
skinutter wrote:
Could be a proper pendulum swing from great start to muddy in 72hrs....cr*p just glad i'm not packed up and awaiting to go away this week
That would be me then
Well, it's got exactly one week to stop all that heavy rain malarkey and get snowing again...
nozawaonsen wrote:
the next twist will be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning when temperatures drop even more rapidly than they rose. This will be accompanied by initial rain up to 2000m followed by snow right down to the bottom of the valleys as the temperatures plummet.
I hope that goes for La Plagne as well. That makes me feel a little better
Hope there'll be LOTS of snow!!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Picadilly, the same ensembles. Obviously there can be a fair amount of local variation.
But to be honest much of La Plagne will be swimming in snow by the time you get there. Yes the rain that comes will likely damage lower slopes, but my impression is that a fair amount of La Plagne is above 2000m? So the higher slopes should be in rude health (and the lower parts should have a fresh covering by the time you arrive in a week's time).
hmm, looks like France is going to get a royal soaking over the next few days. I guess the good work of the last few weeks of cold and regular snow to low levels is about to disappear before our very eyes at say 1000-1500m then
Could be a proper pendulum swing from great start to muddy in 72hrs....cr*p just glad i'm not packed up and awaiting to go away this week
I wouldn't over estimate the damaging effect of some rain, even heavy. The ground is very cold already, and yes the snow texture will be changed but when it all refreezes and gets a top up and a piste basher up and down it you wouldn't believe it had had such a hard time. Over my nigh on 30 years of skiing I've sat out a few grumpy mornings (actually, by the second bottle we were usually quite jolly... in an appartment watching it lashing down, thinking it would be just be mud outside, but no it generally survives.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Tipping down in Montreux, CH this morning.
High avalanche risk in Chamonix valley, Col des Montets is now closed
it's the relative lack of precipitation after the current deluge of rain (currently to 2500m....) which bothers me.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
pam w wrote:
it's the relative lack of precipitation after the current deluge of rain (currently to 2500m....) which bothers me.
yep, will be like boilerplate if it the snow is saturated then the temperatures fall way down again. Possibly not so bad on those equipped with guns which could be used to help but elsewhere it'll be nasty.
Now, which way do we turn to pray to the snowgods for lower resorts???
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
yep, just checked out the flaine webcams and its taken one hell of a beating... 2 weeks to get it repaired... come on low temps, come on snow....
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
It's extremely difficult to predict where the rain/snow limit will be as there will be pockets of cold air in the valleys, newly arriving warm air coming over the top, etc. but for the western alps I think we can safely say there'll be a big snow gain above 2500m and a pretty devastating snow loss below 2000m.
