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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Fair, I'm just bummed because I'll be traveling to the alps the week after Crying or Very sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@ajcrski, 7 days out, it will change, wether for the better or the worse remains to be seen.....
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Pretty good at the moment snowHead snowHead snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/ZMVaXx7rXNI
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@BobinCH, what do you mount your camera on? I have an “invisible” selfie stick but I have to carry both poles in my other hand!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@andy from embsay, I’ve got long ski touring poles and just hold the selfie-stick against it in my right hand
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Big hands…
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@andy from embsay, you can wedge it up against your pole hand, have a play around, that’s what I did with normal ski poles


http://youtube.com/v/9McJDj6lRH0
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
andy from embsay wrote:
@BobinCH, what do you mount your camera on? I have an “invisible” selfie stick but I have to carry both poles in my other hand!


You can buy a clamp the extends out from the pole.
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While it's being discussed, anyone know what ustaria posts uses to record his dolomite videos? You can see him carrying poles in his other hands but he seems to be able to flip from front facing to back much easier then selfie stick

Wondering if that little stub the go pro comes with might actually be good
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@8611, any 360 camera can do that surely? So insta or GoPro max
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@kitenski, yep, agree. 360° camera allows you to pan and zoom around as you like. Through 360° in fact!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
andy from embsay wrote:
@BobinCH, what do you mount your camera on? I have an “invisible” selfie stick but I have to carry both poles in my other hand!


Easy all you need to know, just Google and I'm nigh on page one, ask any questions and I'll hopefully have the answers?

https://www.stylealtitude.com/gopro-max-360-skiing-how-to-film-and-mount-camera.html
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@kitenski, he's not using one of those though, he has a normal go pro I suspect.

Anyway it probably isn't the most important issue in the Alps right now...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Anyway. Back to weather. This week looks pretty good in the west/PdS - but there does look (to the untrained eye) to be a warmer spell on the way next weekend (though nothing like as horrendous as last year). Any thoughts from those more familiar with models etc?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@andy from embsay, I’m seeing more snow on Friday, good weather for the weekend but warmer on Monday with potentially a decent dump above 2000m. Then cooling down again
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yes @BobinCH - from the various apps the warmer spell seems to come in over the weekend with some precipitation Sunday/Monday/Tuesday - it doesn’t look catastrophic by any means but Meteo Ski has snowline about 2000m for a couple of days.

Still a week away though.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I’ve seen nothing to suggest this rollercoaster of cold warm /rain snow we have seen in the last few weeks is going to stop until the pool of tropical air in the south cools .
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm off to Milan on Saturday and was going to Cervinia for 2 days of skiing on Sunday. Models are suggesting rain up to 3000 m on Sunday and Monday. I think I'm gonna stay in Milan Sad
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@Koleoptero, check the forecast on Friday, I’ll bet it’s changed by then!
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Even if it gets warm looks like it’s only Mon/Tues and will add another decent layer to the base above 2000m
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Very similar for Morzine/PdS - nothing catastrophic but probably a bit of damage lower down.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
kitenski wrote:
@Koleoptero, check the forecast on Friday, I’ll bet it’s changed by then!


Seems very consistent in the models. It's going to happen. Potentially Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Exactly the days I was going.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Koleoptero - have’t looked at Italy but the LPN in the north-west isn’t massively high Monday to Wednesday - maybe 2000m?
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Quote:

Seems very consistent in the models. It's going to happen. Potentially Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Exactly the days I was going.


??? That's still a week out, which is an eternity with mountain weather forecasting.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but I definitely wouldn't make plans based on the forecast right now...
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Some more snow to low altitudes over the best few days, then currently looks like rain to 2,000m (probably higher) in a week's time. Agree with @andy from embsay that it shouldn't be catastrophic - not too prolonged or torrential on current forecasts. Plenty of time for the forecast to change, but could improve too!

Most areas in the northern Alps have a reasonable base now I think, often with artificial mixed in, so should be fairly resistant to significant melting. I don't think there'll be a widespread return to green even at village levels.
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@Koleoptero, from Milan you have ski resorts in a reasonable choice of directions, which makes it easier to escape the worst weather. If Aosta Valley / Cervinia is bad then look further east.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@denfinella, that’s what I was hoping to hear! Certainly doesn’t look anything like last year (yet…)!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Also planning to go 9-13th and haven't booked yet! Forecasts aren't very encouraging... looking at Austria, probably Lech or Solden/Obergurgl.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Great overflight video of Westendorf yesterday. Cannons firing all over, on top of lots of fresh stuff

https://www.bergfex.com/ellmau/webcams/c115/
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
My favourite new weather app (Meteoblue - thanks for the recommendation!) has Avoriaz being warm but not too bad and maybe 40-50mm rain across Monday to Wednesday next week (assume this would still see snow high up) - then cooling down again.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yet another couple weeks of snow-rain-snow on the way for Western Europe.

Parts of Eastern Europe looking greener than Kermit.

This is Bansko, Bulgaria, at 1000m.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Putting a more positive spin on things this is La Clusaz in France at almost exactly the same altitude (1060m) right now:

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
Yet another couple weeks of snow-rain-snow on the way for Western Europe.

Parts of Eastern Europe looking greener than Kermit.

This is Bansko, Bulgaria, at 1000m.



Are they piles of manmade snow, now mostly melted?
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andy from embsay wrote:
My favourite new weather app (Meteoblue - thanks for the recommendation!) has Avoriaz being warm but not too bad and maybe 40-50mm rain across Monday to Wednesday next week (assume this would still see snow high up) - then cooling down again.



4 days of heavy rain at 1,800m, crikey.
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I don’t think it’ll be 4 days of heavy rain - Sunday into Monday looks a bit grim but then dryer and back to cold (and maybe more snow) later in the week. Recent runs have dialled back the rain a bit already.
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As said before the current set up is pulling in unprecedented amounts of precipitation but it’s going to be a constant mixture of snow and rain until this pool of tropical air in the south cools down, this didn’t happen last winter till quite late .
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Of course this year i'm off to the Tahoe area for new year, skiing is obvs high on the agenda however after last years booming season this year it's ..... sparse. Have been looking at models but not a lot of light on the horizon !
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
andy from embsay wrote:
I don’t think it’ll be 4 days of heavy rain - Sunday into Monday looks a bit grim but then dryer and back to cold (and maybe more snow) later in the week. Recent runs have dialled back the rain a bit already.

I think you're being overly optimistic here mate ... as much as I hate to see it, this weekend's forecast (IF it sticks ... but the last few runs have been consistent here) is not looking great. ISO for the French Alps (from PdS all the way down the Tarentaise) is at 2,500 metres on Sunday (at the height of the precipitation event). And it rises even further as you head towards the Alpes Maritimes.

Luckily, it seems to be cooling down from Tuesday onwards.
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munich_irish wrote:
I know these articles are received with a certain amount of scepticism around here but the various weather super computers are not seeing a particularly snowy European winter in prospect https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-increased-snow-depth-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/


Time to ditch the super computers!
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@franga, I think Sunday/Monday will be grim but the temperature seems to drop off reasonably quickly and the precipitation is (fairly) short lived, isn’t it? Granted there’ll be a lot damage low down but at least there’s a decent chunk of snow on the ground. I think last year the warm spell was longer, the rain was heavier and the wind was stronger.
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