 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
ECM remains boringly attached to high pressure out east this evening...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
74 cm of snow forecast for the eastern alps on 28th November.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
emwmarine, 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
The power of positive thinking and a bottle of wine. bet you a fiver it dumps then.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Ah. But it won't start until around 2pm on the 28th though. Difficult to be more precise.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Be smashing if it did! Mind you I was hoping for 76cm.
And I really don't disagree with you that at that range you could toss a dice or spin a bottle and have a fairly good chance.
End of November you'd expect it to be increasingly likely to see heavy snowfall coming through (though you wouldn't normally bet on such mild mid November temperatures).
It's just meant to be a bit of fun. You ski or drink the weather you get.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
We ought to have a sweepstake on when the first big dump will be.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Emwmarine - 4 Jan 2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
emwmarine, Define big! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Greater than 15cm in a day. My educated prdiction stands for my entry.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
emwmarine, Where France, Austria, Europe?
If Europe, then I say we will get a minimum of 15cm will be 22nd Nov 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I hate the word dump, can't we think of an alternative.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Dropping?
Deposit?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
Me 28th nov
Moodyffs 22nd nov
Pjd. 4th jan
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
7 weeks to go. Still not worried but have had enough of November
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
If the rows of suns in the forecasts for the next 1O days come true this must be the sunniest November in the history of the Alps
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| pjd wrote: |
| If the rows of suns in the forecasts for the next 1O days come true this must be the sunniest November in the history of the Alps |
| Quote: |
If the rows of suns in the forecasts for the next 1O days come true this must be the sunniest November in the history of the Alps
|
After such high earlier promise as well.
With last year in mind we just need to get the first dump (sorry Jbob) out the way so everyone will be able to relax and start looking forward to it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
In the reliable time frame high pressure remains dominant in eastern Europe and with it a continuation of sunny, dry and mild weather in the Alps. Temperatures do however, look like dropping slightly through the week ending up 4 to 5C lower by next weekend. Still mild for the time of year, but not quite as warm as it is now.
GFS sees the high pressure weakening and allows the Atlantic to push in. Low pressure looks like it will move down into the Mediterranean next Saturday 19 November and could produce some snow in the Souther French Alps at altitude (on some runs it passes too far to the south).
ECM currently see the high pressure being more stubborn.
Further into the GFS run and it does produce more snow for the Alps in the fourth week of November, but without cross model support and in the face of the persistent high pressure, this cannot be counted on at this stage.
Nor for that matter can the control run (the thick dark blue run on the ensembles), which is a shame as it's a corker.
Here are some links to weather station data showing how warm and dry it has been over the last thirty days.
Radstadt 30 day precipitation
Radstadt 30 day temperature
Bourg St Maurice 30 day precipitation
Bourg St Maurice 30 day temperature
Lugano 30 day precipitation
Lugano 30 day temperature
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
nozawaonsen, Been frost on the the lower half of the planai continuously for last couple of days. Just cycled up to mid station (1400m), cycle computer said around 3 degrees, slightly warmer as I went up. Coming down in to Schladming via a small sunless gorge and just below freezing with some black ice which almost caught me out. Still saying +10 at the top right now. How do you get a temp inversion all day long, I thought it was a night time thing with the cold air sinking down, or is it just a function of where gets the sun at the moment? The temps for Radstadt posted above seem quite warm but it's in the open so gets the sun, schaldming is pretty sunless now and I doubt got above +3 today. That darn high pressure, apparently it has a name of "Xenia", how sweet. http://www.kleinezeitung.at/kaernten/2875847/hoch-xenia-laesst-uns-weiter-schnee-warten.story
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
It was b*stard cold in the Haute Savoie today. That's a technical term. Apologies to anyone here who isn't a weather expert.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Still looks from GFS like a potentially snowy Saturday 19 November in the Southern French Alps next weekend. Snow line possibly around 1700m or lower, but will shift around.
Alpe D'Huez meteogram
Before then 12z GFS continues the pattern of recent GFS runs by slowly cooling temperatures from the current mild highs during the week (gradually moving back down to normal), accompanied by sunshine and much colder overnight temperatures.
As for the week after (ie low resolution and low confidence) the 12z GFS operational run brings in a much heavier Autumnal influence with snow at altitude on 23/24 November and by the end of the run, having shot off on a milder jaunt, is starting to produce just the sort of cold and snow you'd want to see at the end of November... but at that range you can't have any confidence at all in it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen,
Re above you've fixed it for Your First dump comp bloody disgrace 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
MoodyFFS,
When was that
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Got it, no chance it's December. All the way. Wait for 00z to turn it all round
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
phillip33, Try this link - not much coming into the Haute Savoie or anywhere on there for the next few days that's for sure. The Pyrenees and the Alpes-Maritime seem to have the best chances of good precipitation.
Put it on the 144St. programme and it goes as far as the 20th November! Remarkably little or nothing happening along the northern Alpine axis 
http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samerberg Sue,
I love meteox especially for rain radar, problem with it is it's got met in it, and that reminds me of met office , so no t to reliable, December all the way
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
phillip33, Meteox draws it's data from various European met offices (including the UK met office).
ECM (which may be the source data for that forecast loop?) continues to be less convinced the low pressure will push into the Southern French Alps at the weekend and keeps high pressure stronger out east.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
phillip33, The Met Office is incredibly reliable if you read THEIR output and not rely on the trash given out by the dumb-down numpties called the Press.
nozawaonsen, Not sure what it based on, but using the pressure maps and the other resources available, I usually have a pretty good idea of what is going to happen in my area a few days in advance.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Met office is good locally and a couple of days in advance tops, but noza has mentioned they seem to use all the usual suspects when providing their forecasts, the met office pressure map I agree seems quite reliable , and unfortunately for the next few days has high pressure still dominating out East, the met,s longer term forecast seems to sway to colder temps from the beginning of December ( hence my 2nd dec bid for first notable dump in alps and also the wife,s orders) with regards to meteor drawing it's info from euro mets , well if it uses meteofrance god help it that's the worst forecasting model I kook at, I know they use GFS but there no good at interpretating it, anyway looks like it's getting colder ( no brainer) towards end of month , and we will see some action end of month I base this on absolutely nothing just hope a few wiggles and as someone else mentioned yesterday a few glasses of wine!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Just to clarify the Met Office (UKMO) and Meteo France are respectively the British and French national meteorological services.
They both have their own forecasting models.
They both also use ECMWF which is based in Reading.
GFS is a US model run by the NOAA (a US government scientific agency).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Quote: |
I hate the word dump, can't we think of an alternative
|
I do agree. horrible expression, but I suspect people will keep on using it.
| Quote: |
The Met Office is incredibly reliable if you read THEIR output and not rely on the trash given out by the dumb-down numpties called the Press
|
+1 (provided you believe them when they say that forecasts more than 48 hours or so out are unreliable). The thing is, people cannot live with uncertainty and demand much more specific information than proper meteorologists are prepared to come up with, so some numpties will provide what they want, take some output and turn it into something daft like "we are in for another freezing cold winter, just watch out folks, thousands will die" or "there will be 223mm of snow at 1700m in Morzine a week on Tuesday" and other numpties will believe them. Then moan when it doesn't happen.
It might be quite hard to accept that, actually, nobody knows what is going to happen to the weather in a few weeks time and easier to believe - in the short term - somebody who fixes on one of several equally probable potential outcomes and sounds a bit more certain about it.
Anyway, the way things are going, we've got a good few weeks to dream up another alternative to the nasty "dump" language.
"Heavy snowfall", anyone?
Right now, I'd settle for a reliable forecast of tomorrow's weather, to know whether my planned walk round Thorney Island is a goer or not. On Friday night I got heavily soaked in Cardiff by several hours or exceptionally heavy rain which wasn't really forecast at all. Weather's like that. Tricky stuff.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
In the reliable timeframe.
- Stubborn high pressure out east.
- Mild daytime temperatures drifting back towards seasonal average through the week.
- Clear weather over the Alps.
The 18z GFS still had the option of snowfall in the Southern French Alps (as on previous runs Alpe D'Huez south), but unsupported by ECM in recent runs. This morning's output (both GFS and ECM) doesn't go for the snow with resilient high pressure shutting the door on any incursions.
Out beyond next weekend and into the far from reliable output both ECM and GFS play with colder weather at times at the end of their runs. GFS returns high pressure, but has it sat much further west.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 14-11-11 9:35; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
moffatross, indeed. Be interesting to see if any of the FI good times make it through to this evening!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suggested alternative name for a really big dump of snow:
Snowmageddon!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Starker Schneefall, sounds rude
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| paulio wrote: |
| It was b*stard cold in the Haute Savoie today. That's a technical term. Apologies to anyone here who isn't a weather expert. |
thats the truth, especially by about 6pm its really been feeling like winter again. were at about 800m and by about 8pm its been hitting 0 degrees finally
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Definitely getting chillier here too. Glad to have single digit temperatures again. 2.5C this morning at a whopping 150m altitude, and the forecast has some overnight minus signs too
Numb fingers yesterday on the bike descending from Frankenstein's Castle. Last weekend was short sleeves and fingerless gloves, and glorious weather.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
