cad99uk, yeah, though 18z takes it back cold again right at the end of the run (15 December) after a mild period, high building over Greenland, cold coming down through Europe, etc, etc. We'll see.
Met Office just issued "flash warning" for snow in Greater London tomorrow morning... could be a hoot for commuters.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Milder omens continue to gather... (keeping it in perspective of course winter only properly starts tomorrow!)
This morning's GFS sees a slight increase in the amount of mild weather around after a cold run into the weekend, indeed the milder period around 07 December is extended in 00z and the amount of precipitation dialed down. GFS and ECM both have very similar charts for +192 showing the low pressure being held off of Spain and the colder weather over Europe retreating north. Here is the ECM chart:
This would give several days of freezing levels back to 2000m+ over the middle of next week. And in parts of the French alps this would mean quite a bit of rain at low level and snow at altitude.
Temperatures drop quite quickly in the Alps after that mind. Obviously a lot of time for things still to change in either direction...
In the meantime there should be quite a bit more snow over the next day or two and some pretty chilly temperatures...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Adding a little further context to the "milder" weather the means for most places (including London and Aberdeen as well as the Alps) end this morning's runs below the thirty year average... So not exactly warm by the middle of December.
The pressure charts do suggest the likelihood of further blocking high pressure to the north (indicated by the red - this is a pressure not temperature chart) through December, which would suggest the possibility remains good for a return to much colder weather even if we do have a relatively speaking milder interlude.
Stepping back a bit it may be worth considering that there was a lose theme in a number of the LRFs for a cold start to Winter followed by above average exit from winter. And Bastardi continues to press his view that the core of the cold in Europe will be the Alps to the south east rather than the British Isles...
Anyway some very cold temperatures to hopefully enjoy over the next few days...
nozawaonsen, you are in danger of losing your current position as my favourite snowhead. Please make sure that rain up to 2000m is changed to snow down to ~1500m.
Going to Montgenevre on the 20/12 and don't want the rain to wash away the snow that's already there!
brian
brian Guest
At the risk of incurring the wrath of milzibkit, the charts are still showing a couple of days of bleugh warm air being pulled up from the south around Monday-Wednesday next week. Hopefully not too long lasting.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I've just seen heavy rain forecast for Sun 5th into Mon 6th in La Plagne - please tell me it's not true
After all it is free
After all it is free
Picadilly wrote:
I've just seen heavy rain forecast for Sun 5th into Mon 6th in La Plagne - please tell me it's not true
Looks about right.
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nozawaonsen, there's a bit of an inclination to kill the messenger round here. Unless you promise endless days of snow, along with sunshine, no fog and cheap beer, they'll be baying for your blood.
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Picadilly, the closest ensemble run for La Plagne (to be honest it is actually closer to Chamonix) is the one below:
The way the chart looks to me (if you follow the green operational run) is that Sunday evening would start with fairly heavy snow, but it would be replaced by heavy rain up to 2300m+ by Monday morning! The operational though is the most extreme of those runs (even if the trend has broad support).
But.
That is several days away and there is plenty of time for the freezing level to come down (it looks like it will get milder, but not necessarily quite as warm as currently modeled). So I wouldn't get too worried... quite yet. Obviously though this low pressure system coming over is going to make things interesting (this evening's charts would potentially make it very snowy in the south of the UK next Tuesday). A few days ago it was looking like it would deliver heavy snow to much lower levels in the Alps. So the range of permutations is considerable and likely to shift around quite a bit... Worth keeping a watch on it...
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 30-11-10 23:30; edited 1 time in total
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Interesting... 18z operational quite a bit cooler next Tuesday and Wednesday... That would bring down the freezing level in the Alps a little...
A fair bit milder than a couple of days before... but cooler than 12z and 06z... so going in the right direction...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
That is several days away and there is plenty of time for the freezing level to come down (it looks like it will get milder, but not necessarily quite as warm as currently modeled). So I wouldn't get too worried... quite yet.
You're still my favourite person on Snowheads <3
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Both the GFS 00z control and the mean take things colder and snowier from the 07 December leaving it as a fairly brief warm up... the operational sticks to a milder solution...
milzibkit, nozawaonsen looks like he might have seen you right if the 12z GFS is anything to go by. The offending Low fails to make westward progress on this run and eventually fizzles out in the Atlantic. Consequently, the full might of the F word doesn't really get there, the western alps would see a moderate to large dump with a snowline going no higher than 1600m-ish I think.
Suspect there will be a few twists and turns in this one before next week.
12z FI, incidentally, ends up with another Greeny high and eventually full on cold.
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Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Cue dramatic music!
Genius! I'm not going to be able to look at weather forecasts in the same way ever again. Who knew meteorology could be so exciting!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This is rapidly turning into one of the best Winters in recent history.
Western America and Northern Europe are getting battered.
And it's only Dec 1st.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold, yes but lots of heavy rain forecast for eastern alps on Monday, stuff might get washed away
Wahhhh, i'm in Flaine in just over 2 weeks 18th ....for 4 day quick fix before christmas. Been looking amazing on the webcams but massively worried about the coming milder weather and possibility of rain!!! Although , i'm staying positive as freezing levels for next mon, tues, weds seem to be dropping.. as the forecast progress.. just not quite below the magic 1600m of the flaine resort... Keep the faith,the snow already there can last a bit of rain...
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:
would moderate rainfall for a couple of days usually wash away any pisted snow?
it will wash some away, but not all - it's surprising how well the snow can last - will look a bit sad and grey, but then some fresh snow will cheer it up. And there's time for the FL to drop a bit more, too.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Flandiddly, Most of flaine bowl is north facing, and its dam cold in december, all the important bits are above 1600 so it will probably be snow, bigger problem in flaine usually is you can't see much in falling snow.
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Interesting to see the mean is currently (18z) pretty much fixed at or just below seasonal average for much of the Alps... If that came off it would be good snowfall for most places around 1400m. That could turn out to be wishful thinking as the operational is still kicking round rather rainier ideas... It is quite a battlefield still. Like brian suggested this one looks like it is going to go down to the wire... (but is only likely to be really crucial if you are hoping to ski next week... )
Japanese peaks have something of a sprinkling of snow at the top, but compared to lots of other parts of the Northern Hemisphere (like say Gatwick) they are taking rather a leasurely approach to winter. Balmy temperatures in Tokyo. Still plenty of time though and when Japan turns on the snow it tends to be big...
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bit rusty on all this stuff but the graph up the page is suggesting high temps for up to a week, 5-7degrees?!?!?. Please tell me i'm talking out my rear
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
skinutter, you not
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
do not fear just seen the bbc weather for west europe and its saying the temps will remain cold, well the rain limit will hover around 1400-1600,so not to bad, i,m off to morzine, so for me its bad news for the resort,but good for most of the ski area
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
skinutter, you're right about the 00z ensembles above which shows about four or five days of above average temperatures, but there are signs the cold isn't quite on the ropes yet, may not be giving up so easily... Indeed considering making a comeback...
06z looking like a cooler run (though I'm still expecting some above average temperatures next week at the moment) and another run that brings back a Greenland high in far FI...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Incidentally worth noting that the majority of runs since Monday have seen the control or operational dropping to -10c or below in parts of the Alps from about 15 December or so... Not a clear trend yet and all well towards the end of the runs... Might be worth keeping an eye on though ...
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 2-12-10 14:40; edited 1 time in total
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I'm selling up to move to FI After enduring a week of warm and rainy weather in the alps a couple of years back i know the snow will hang about but we'll be at 1100m this Jan so its gonna be a shame to wash away some of the chocolate box early season snow thats laying.
Let it snow loooow
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Well the 06z operational certainly votes for cold in FI
Though it still keeps a few days of warmer temperatures in the first half of next week...
Arlberg
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
12z showing a big fall in temps after the rain/snow events in the western alps on the 9th Dec. Still fingers crossed that the snow limit lowers, but most runs are not suggesting this... at least FI shows a return to way below average cold temps in the run up to christmas....
18z Middle of December... Some very cold temperatures pouring in from the east... (odd to think we have already had a much colder set of temperatures and only just into December!)
Incidentally surface temperatures for early next week in Alps are looking pretty cool. Which might increase chance of potential rain (if 850s don't drop) falling as ice or graupel?
brian
brian Guest
Meteosuisse not making a call on the snowline at this point:
"Lundi et mardi : très nuageux avec des précipitations fréquentes et localement abondantes, surtout au nord des Alpes . Limite des chutes de neige encore incertaine."
Last three runs have replicated the sort of table-top pattern that bobojim flagged up with a steep drop off by the weekend... Still keeping things mild in the first half of the week. The Arlberg forecast also hedging "How the forecast will develop in details is uncertain, because both cold and mild air masses will push in." 06z ensembles out shortly...
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
So we're still not sure if it'll be heavy rain or heavy snow.....
Please make it snow!!
After all it is free
After all it is free
06z ensembles firming up round warm up at start of next week. Still in play though...
Talking of mild... 23c in Tokyo today! In December! (typhoon was ripping through Yokohama). Maybe some snow coming into Japan with a big low pressure system next week?
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nozawaonsen, how about the UK? local Yorkshire weather man said he couldn't see a warm up until mid Dec at the earliest!!
brian
brian Guest
kitenski, certainly nothing you'd call approaching mild on the cards in the next week or so. Chances are if you have good snow cover now you'll still have it next Friday.
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