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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@rogg, to be honest it’s a bit early to tell. The period your talking about is outside of the time you can be especially confident and there’s quite a lot of spread. Mind you not a strong signal, I’ll grant you that.

Still a bit of a settled spell after the coming snow would be no bad thing…

“You might just as well say,” added the March Hare, “that ‘I like what I get’ is the same thing as ‘I get what I like’!”
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
horgand wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Pretty snowy weather for Austria and Eastern Switzerland over next week. It’ll back west later in that period and there should be some (probably not huge) spillover into Italy.



http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

Heavy snow and high winds could cause some disruption in Austria at the start of the week.


Delighted to read this Noza, thanks, I'm in St Anton this week and have brought the powder skis with me....
No pressure!! Little Angel


That could be genius timing if the wind doesn’t play havoc!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&WMO=03072&TIME=std&CONT=ukuk&R=0&LEVEL=140&REGION=0003&LAND=__&ART=wind&NOREGION=0&PLZ=&PLZN=_____&SORT=__&TEMP=___&WETTER=__&&TYP=__&SEITE=0
Gusting 111mph on the Cairnwell.
That’s 179kph in Euros. Laughing
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Oh to be in St Anton on Thursday…
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@BobinCH, hope on the night train and I'll meet you there Laughing
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With between 1-2m of new snowfall at altitude in places in Austria and with strong winds, conditions could well be challenging for a while. Anticipate lift closures and high avalanche risk. But once it’s settled…

02446067-AB3-B-43-F3-8-EC1-58-A49-D14-F86-A
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Woo hoo!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I'm arriving on Saturday..............
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https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack

Quote:
Weather forecast through Monday, 31.01.2022

Following a night of partially clear skies, snowfall will rapidly set in from the north and fall down to low lying areas. In central Ticino and Sotto Ceneri it will be quite sunny.

Fresh snow
By Monday evening:
on the northern Alpine Ridge from the Wildstrubel to the Alpstein: 10 to 20 cm;
Jura region, remaining parts of the northern flank of the Alps, Valais not including southern Simplon region, Gotthard region, northern Grisons, Lower Engadine north of the Inn: 5 to 10 cm;
in the other regions of Switzerland: only a few centimetres; in the furthermost southern regions it will remain dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between -8 °C in the northern regions and -4 °C in the southern regions, temperatures dropping further during the course of the afternoon.

Wind
Winds still be blowing at strong to storm velocity, initially from westerly directions, shifting to northwesterly during the course of the day.

Outlook through Wednesday, 02.02.2022

Tuesday

On Monday night in the northern regions and in Grisons, intensive snowfall down to low lying areas is anticipated. Also in the other regions of Switzerland, snowfall is expected over widespread areas, only in the furthermost southern regions will it remain dry. During the daytime on Tuesday the intensity of the snowfall will slacken off somewhat. A strong-to-storm strength northwesterly wind will be blowing. On the northern Alpine Ridge from the Bernese Oberland as far as Liechtenstein and in northern Grisons, as a consequence of 40 to 60 cm of fresh snow being registered, Danger Level 4 (high) can be reached. Also in the other regions of Switzerland, avalanche danger levels are expected to increase over widespread areas.

Wednesday

During Tuesday night and on Wednesday, an additional similar amount of fresh snow is expected from the Bernese Oberland as far as northern Grisons. Also in the other regions of Switzerland, 20 to 40 cm of fresh snow is anticipated over widespread areas. Only on the southern flank of the Alps will there be very little snowfall. The snowfall level will ascend in the northern regions to approximately 1000 m, in the Alpine valleys it will remain at lower altitudes. The avalanche danger levels will increase over far-reaching areas to Danger Level 4 (high) in the Alps. Only on the southern flank of the Alps are avalanche danger levels not expected to change significantly.
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Northern France situation looking increasingly bad rolling eyes why oh why did I give up my Warth accommodation Sad
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@Alex A, Val d‘Isere will get a decent amount of snow over next few days. Then sunny. What‘ll it be like by time you arrive, who knows? But I’ll take a wild guess and say that you’ll have a great holiday regardless of the weather (assuming no accidents, getting arrested, being photographed dad dancing naked on a bar etc).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Any signs of the persistent blocking high pressure area over the western Alps, giving in?

That nasty snowcloud water had been blocking winter and snow in the French Alps for over a month now Evil or Very Mad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Onnem wrote:
Any signs of the persistent blocking high pressure area over the western Alps, giving in?

That nasty snowcloud eater had been blocking winter and snow in the French Alps for over a month now Evil or Very Mad
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Too warm after it snows I think. Best bet would be to ski the trees during the storm.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Alex A wrote:
Northern France situation looking increasingly bad rolling eyes why oh why did I give up my Warth accommodation Sad


Just rechecked the forecast for Flaine, its looking really good for next 3 days. I think better be in France this week than Austria as there'll be decent dump but avoiding lift closures.

What part of Northern France are you looking at? Don't tell me Normandy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
peanuthead wrote:
Alex A wrote:
Northern France situation looking increasingly bad rolling eyes why oh why did I give up my Warth accommodation Sad


Just rechecked the forecast for Flaine, its looking really good for next 3 days. I think better be in France this week than Austria as there'll be decent dump but avoiding lift closures.

What part of Northern France are you looking at? Don't tell me Normandy


Hey .. Val d”isere

I know it can change as well. Fingers crossed!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Alex A, Val d‘Isere will get a decent amount of snow over next few days. Then sunny. What‘ll it be like by time you arrive, who knows? But I’ll take a wild guess and say that you’ll have a great holiday regardless of the weather (assuming no accidents, getting arrested, being photographed dad dancing naked on a bar etc).


Very Happy Smile the Dad dancing made me smile a lot .. lol

You are right … we will have a good time and I’m really happy we are actually able to go now, after such an enforced break!
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Quote:
What part of Northern France are you looking at? Don't tell me Normandy

Laughing
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I’m currently glued to this thread, I’m very interested in weather but am a complete novice! the weather at the moment is horrendous at home and for snowfall in the western alps, I wish that Azores high would Azores off ! I’m going to meribel next week for 12 days with 20 people, I really want them to experience a snowy resort, who likes bare roofs and tarmac it’s actually frustrating me which I know is ridiculous as nothing can change it.

The models precipitation charts show the western alps right on the edge of any real snowfall in the short term time frames, 8-10 days they bring several snow events but is so unreliable in that time frame.

Also frustrating that the temps seem to be creeping up to 6-8 degrees melting any existing snow.

Hopefully we see a change in that high position and all the snow over Austria pushes west, is that even possible ?
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Cov_lad wrote:
I’m currently glued to this thread, I’m very interested in weather but am a complete novice! the weather at the moment is horrendous at home and ...

Hopefully we see a change in that high position and all the snow over Austria pushes west, is that even possible ?


I find a quick prayer to the snow gods a couple of days before you leave does the trick.....

It probably doesn't improve the weather much tbh, but it kinda makes you feel you have something to do with it, if that makes any sense Laughing snowHead Laughing
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horgand wrote:
Cov_lad wrote:
I’m currently glued to this thread, I’m very interested in weather but am a complete novice! the weather at the moment is horrendous at home and ...

Hopefully we see a change in that high position and all the snow over Austria pushes west, is that even possible ?


I find a quick prayer to the snow gods a couple of days before you leave does the trick.....

It probably doesn't improve the weather much tbh, but it kinda makes you feel you have something to do with it, if that makes any sense Laughing snowHead Laughing



I’m praying daily sir/madam
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Bergfex showing almost 1.5m in Ischgl for the next 3 days. A bit less forecast further east now (eg Zell am See now “only” about 60cm)
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Mother of god. They could send some to Verbier...
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@Onnem, unfortunately not. After the snowfall in the beginning of this week, we are heading back to dry situation. I think this will last for a while deep into February. Again, the start of this year feels very similar to the weather we had in 2020. The situation is locked with a very strong polar vortex that shows no signs of easing down. In addition, you have very cold weather over Northeastern Canada meeting warmer weather over the northwestern Atlantic, which creates intense low pressure. These take the northern route and Iceland - Scandinavia are hit by storm after storm. High pressure systems flucatating south of the low pressure highway in the Northen Atlantic. That means a locked picture continuing in February. It will be high pressure influence with little snow. And the snow that might arrive, will come from the north. Austria again best postiioned, but probably mostly dry and sunny until 20th of february.
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Woosh, so many Negative Waves!
And so early in the morning . . .
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Woosh wrote:
@Onnem, unfortunately not. After the snowfall in the beginning of this week, we are heading back to dry situation. I think this will last for a while deep into February. Again, the start of this year feels very similar to the weather we had in 2020. The situation is locked with a very strong polar vortex that shows no signs of easing down. In addition, you have very cold weather over Northeastern Canada meeting warmer weather over the northwestern Atlantic, which creates intense low pressure. These take the northern route and Iceland - Scandinavia are hit by storm after storm. High pressure systems flucatating south of the low pressure highway in the Northen Atlantic. That means a locked picture continuing in February. It will be high pressure influence with little snow. And the snow that might arrive, will come from the north. Austria again best postiioned, but probably mostly dry and sunny until 20th of february.



You definitely know more than me but, can I ask why the precip models are showing systems moving down throughout the next 10 days ? Some of them show some prolonged precipitation over the French alps for and extended period of time.

Maybe my wishful thinking like but it looks like there’s signs of more snow after these next few days.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Cov_lad, You are right that we will see some snow in France this week. It is coming down just east of the high pressure. The high pressure system is positioned enough to the west to open up for snow also for France. The secondary snowfall on Friday may or may not give som snow for France, but most likely very lightly. From the weekend and onwards, there are solid signs for a more classical division in Europe, with high pressure in the south and more low pressure in the north. These locked systems are hard to break up, and when you combine the operational models with the strong polar vortex and the general systems in the northern Atlantic, long forecasts become more relieble. Just like when you had the reversed system last JAN/ half of Feb with lots of low pressure south of Europe and a blocking over Scandinavia.

I always hope for a lot of snow for the Alps, but as this is a weather thread, I try to contribute with what outlook I think is most realistic, particulary for the long term. I would have preferred to see a situation with large scale change with lots of snow for the Southern Alps, but unfortunately, in my opinion it it not likely before 20th of February.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Woosh, I’m a bit selfish. I don’t want any snow in the Alps - at least Zell am See - for a week from 20th Feb. Self confessed fair weather skier, though judging by the numbers who do ski when the weather is bad I am keener to ski whatever the weather than most.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Woosh wrote:
I would have preferred to see a situation with large scale change with lots of snow for the Southern Alps, but unfortunately, in my opinion it it not likely before 20th of February.


I fear the snow gods are angry with us for not making this thread a sticky. Be gone with last years thread, and put this in its rightful place, and the snow gods will deliver....
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@Handy Turnip, +1
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 Poster: A snowHead
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After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad
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Cblair246 wrote:
After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad


Austrian resorts forecast about 5°C max at resort level next week. That's not that warm, just a touch spring-like.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
buchanan101 wrote:
Cblair246 wrote:
After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad


Austrian resorts forecast about 5°C max at resort level next week. That's not that warm, just a touch spring-like.


Austria was my planned go to location in week 6 so I think it's the best option from what I see across the board in Europe?
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Cblair246 wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:
Cblair246 wrote:
After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad


Austrian resorts forecast about 5°C max at resort level next week. That's not that warm, just a touch spring-like.


Austria was my planned go to location in week 6 so I think it's the best option from what I see across the board in Europe?


By far! The low resorts have had the (relatively) better snow so far, but all Austrian resorts are getting dumped on in the next 3 days - already started. By Thursday many resorts may take a while to deal with the snow that has fallen - supposedly(!) a possible 80cm of snow on Weds in Ischgl for example. Next week could be absolutely glorious. Still 3 weeks for me...

https://www.bergfex.com/silvretta-arena-ischgl-samnaun/wetter/berg/
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@Cblair246, you might consider Western/Northern Norway. It has been a disaster of a season so far with temps being to high, but the temp is dropping and you might see a snowmaggedon this weekend. If sticking to the Alps, I would have gone for Austria the way things are looking at the moment.
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buchanan101 wrote:
Cblair246 wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:
Cblair246 wrote:
After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad


Austrian resorts forecast about 5°C max at resort level next week. That's not that warm, just a touch spring-like.


Austria was my planned go to location in week 6 so I think it's the best option from what I see across the board in Europe?


By far! The low resorts have had the (relatively) better snow so far, but all Austrian resorts are getting dumped on in the next 3 days - already started. By Thursday many resorts may take a while to deal with the snow that has fallen - supposedly(!) a possible 80cm of snow on Weds in Ischgl for example. Next week could be absolutely glorious. Still 3 weeks for me...

https://www.bergfex.com/silvretta-arena-ischgl-samnaun/wetter/berg/


If you believe Bergfex ( Laughing Laughing Laughing ) 160cm for St Anton....... snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Cblair246 wrote:
After the snowfalls, up to Wednesday, do we think ANYWHERE in Europe will see more snow in the 1st half of February? Looks dry and warm everywhere Sad


Any forecast that is trying to predict snowfall (or indeed dry conditions) more than 1-3 days out (absolute tops) is basically a guess, sometimes an educated guess, but none the less too far out to have any accuracy at all.
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....and as forecasted the snow has started here in ADH, 10-15 cm forecast then a sprinkling on Wednesday. Considering people were predicting nothing it wil do for now Very Happy
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As forecast, North of the Alpine ridge got plastered last night and the same again coming tonight. The numbers are fresh snowfall in last 24 hours




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Here (Les gets) got a fair amount of fresh and still snowing. Definitely more than what was expected. Madeye-Smiley I am happy
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