 Poster: A snowHead
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With the remains of the weekend's storm passing through overnight much of the Alps should be increasingly sunny for the coming week. Temperatures above average in the northern Alps, around average in the southern Alps. Colder overnight with the clearer skies. But dry pretty much everywhere, with stubborn high pressure in charge.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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boooo.... (but many thanks for the info whether it's good or bad nozawaonsen, and the others who provide updates to probably the most watched thread on the internet)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, yep keep at it! I'm now checking this thread about three times a day!
The weather gods are certainly playing with my emotions this year, I know its too early to "worry" etc etc but I would be a damned sight happier if there was at least the beginnings of a base?
At least each model is fairly consistent in its own predictions. I would be worried if they were constantly forecasting a switch in the lower resolution timescales, and sometimes beyond them, that never actually happened - like in 2006/07 (until late January)
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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YES nozawaonsen, keep it going first thread I look at every morning ......and look at the wigglies 2 or 3 times a day during the season.....thanks for your effort and time
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Looks like a monster storm pounding Alaska for anyone lucky enough to be heading out there. Avi risk will be off the scale!!!
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The fundamental pattern looks set for the next five to seven days at least. With high pressure still in charge to the east temperatures in much of the Northern Alps will be above average, though slightly cooler in the Southern Alps. A few thoughts:
- Looking at GFS the pattern seems entrenched.
But
- Temperatures in Eastern Europe are actually starting to dip below average over the next week.
- Patterns can seem very settled then switch quickly (look at first 10 days of November last year).
- No real consensus between major models in FI suggest uncertainty in second half of month.
- And at the extreme punt end 19-22 November has been cropping up in GFS over last few runs.
- 12z GFS suggests snow over much of Alps on 22 November (very low confidence), but more generally has been suggesting the possibility of another dose of snow for the Sourhern Alps.
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Why's the pub run called the pub run? Never really known. Unreliable perhaps. Less input maybe. Rolls out as the pubs shut? Probably.
But stepping outside from the foot stomping, screaming sax and thumping bass... Hat's off to 18z for pouring cold down across Eastern Europe, Central Europe and into the Alps.
Maybe just the one run.
Who knows.
But after days of dull charts not a bad way to end the day.
Shake your tail feather...
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No massive surprise that the 18z is going to be a bit of an outlier in the ensembles... (ie it's a long way from the mean)
As ever whether that just means it's a one off random... or whether it signifies a new trend... we'll see... (in general I'd prefer it to be coming through on the 00z or 12z).
Anyway ENSO has ticked up to -0.83 from -0.90 which keeps it weak La Nina.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
Looks like a monster storm pounding Alaska for anyone lucky enough to be heading out there. Avi risk will be off the scale!!!
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Here's Accuweather on the "Snowicane" in Alaska and a subsequent update.
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Well the sober 00z is boringly predictable and hasn't taken it's lead from the 18z.
If you have a forecast saying much colder from 17 November, it's almost certainly being run off the 18z GFS operational (snowforecast.com is an example) and hasn't updated yet to the milder 00z, but will.
Short term, sunny, dry and mild (more so on the northern side of the Alps) till at least the start of next week and whilst high pressure remains out east the pattern looks pretty stable. Low confidence suggestions that low pressure could have an impact on the southern Alps towards the end of next week bringing snow at high altitude.
Here are the ensembles.
Les Deux Alpes.
Chamonix.
The Arlberg.
Hintertux.
Sestriere.
Folgaria.
Zermatt.
Cairngorm.
Scotland incidentally is exceptionally mild for the time of year for most of the run, though there is some faint FI hope at the end of the run.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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It will all change in December . Spoke to wife last night and she said weekend of December 3rd when we put the tree up, she wants log fire drink in hand and snow falling, she who must be obeyed , meanwhile the wait goes on ,no sign of change even the AP like me can read charts which show above average temps and no rain , I,m going to LA Tania jan 2nd so plenty of time for it to snow by then, but I've got a sneaky feeling it will chuck it down the day drive up the mountain,why,well swapped the car this year,traded in the range rover for a q7 which is rubbish in snow but great in corners,mainly because it has the f1 equlivant of slicks on , I've got the chains, but I,m rubbish with them, I,m a great believer of fate and bad luck and me going hand in hand, watch this space.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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fingers crossed that the 18z is trendsetter 
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What is this absolute nonsense on the front page of planetski dot eu?
http://www.planetski.eu/home
Scroll to the bottom.
Flaine is -18 is it? Avoriaz has half a metre of fresh yeah?
*removes site from bookmarks*
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You know it makes sense.
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Worth repeating my post here of the dates of the first lasting snowfall of the season in La Plagne Montalbert
Here are the dates of the first natural snowfall of each season for the last 6 years.
2005/2006 28th November
2006/2007 22nd November
2007/2008 7th November
2008/2009 29th October
2009/2010 11th November (Not 100% sure of this date)
2010/2011 16th November
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| paulio wrote: |
What is this absolute nonsense on the front page of planetski dot eu?
http://www.planetski.eu/home
Scroll to the bottom.
Flaine is -18 is it? Avoriaz has half a metre of fresh yeah?
*removes site from bookmarks* |
yeah i'd say thats from last year, no way we've got that much in chamonix!
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Poster: A snowHead
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bought time I started following this thread once again... top wiggles generally drifting downwards and bottom wiggles drifting upwards... jobs a good un' 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Boredsurfing, do you mean "the first natural snowfall that stuck around..."
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, Yes I think so... Based on pretty much exactly what he said 
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MoodyFFS,
+1. ( at last my turn )
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Boredsurfing, Thats a very impressive bit of knowledge..... and very cheering
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Boredsurfing, 28th November is when we had our first major snowstorm in our neck of the woods in 2005/2006 although we had had a wee bit of flurries and stuff before then as well. It finally paused some time in January as I remember - it was my first winter here in my present flat and I had to go down the mountain in the early morning and drive 120kms to work each day! A baptism of "fire" so to speak. A couple of times I went sideways into snow banks along the edge of the road due to dickheads who would not give way to ascending cars! an interesting winter for commuting into work 
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 10-11-11 21:12; edited 1 time in total
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Montalbert's not exactly high up though, what is it, 1250, 1450? I'd be interested to see similar stats for other, higher stations in Paradiski or maybe somewhere like Tignes (in resort). From the historic webcams posted in the tignes/val d thread it does look unseasonably bare at higher altitudes.
Standard disclaimer: I'm not worried, a lot can change in the next couple of weeks, could still be the best snow ever yada yada yada.
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I know it's still very early in the season - pre-season in fact - but the warm weather in the UK, the snowless pictures on the webcams and the rows of suns in the weather forecasts for the forseeable future are preying on my mind and make me increasingly wonder whether we are in for another 2006/07 (at least I think that was the year) 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The GFS 18z is interesting in that it starts to allow the jet to dig into a more southerly route.
Which would offer the opportunity for colder air to push south...
2005 is an interesting comparison. Very mild October and warm much of November with high pressure sitting over... eastern Europe much of the time. In the last week colder air pushed in and a pretty cold and snowy winter followed. That's not say it would happen like that again, but just that things can change quickly and autumn conditions have nothing to do with the rest of the season.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Dismal 00z GFS operational run which just keeps the high pressure squatting over eastern Europe...
But!
- The ensemble spread is one of the widest in recent weeks with a number producing far more favourable conditions.
- ECM 00z also takes things in a completely different direction with the block breaking up.
So no clear solution, and endless high pressure out east may be back on the menu this evening, but at least in this morning's output there is no clear pattern for the current wearisome trend to continue. That'll do for now.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Maybe I,m losing my mind or have been staring at these graphs for to long, but I,m becoming convinced that 18z is always positive about the weather and then 00z really negative, but one thing I do agree with is that it certainly cannot make up it's mind
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FWIW, last night NHK changed their long-range forecast from warm winter to cold winter because of La Ninya, telling us it might be similar to 2005 when Tokyo had heavier than normal snowfall. More important is that Hokkaido will have the usual precipitation during the season and Sapporo should have some snow next week....also northern Tohoku, yeah! 
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You know it makes sense.
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phillip33, i thought that a few years back when i was staring intently at the wigglies every day. You start to see oatterns. I think it's because each of the runs has slightly different inputs, can't remember what the exact input changes were, but I'm sure it's on the forum somewhere......
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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12z GFS one of the better runs for a little while.
With the jet on a more southerly track, cooler temperatures and snow arrive in the Alps on Sunday 20 November and Monday 21 November.
And by the end of the run (so it won't happen quite like this) with high pressure sat over the UK rather than eastern Europe, the jet is pouring cold air from the Arctic directly onto Austria...
Which would be quite cold.
All off in FI so no particular reason to buy into this... But one of several runs recently which have seen the high pressure out east falling away.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 11-11-11 18:22; edited 4 times in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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Let,s hope
For those who want to get a hands on report of how early it snows in resorts look at these, warning glass of wine required it's compulsive reading for people like me
Www.merinet.com
Www.valdinet.com
Www.courchnet.com
There are others too
Click on snow reports most go back 6/7 years !
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Couple of interesting runs to add to the 12z GFS, showing the Atlantic forcing it's way through the block.
ECM 12z 19 November +192
GFS 18z 19 October +192
Which in the slightly cooler GFS run would bring snow to the Alps on 19 and 20 November and again on the 18z operational a few days later on 24 November.
Obviously still well outside of the reliable timeframe, but interesting all the same...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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And right back to square one...
This morning's output (both GFS and ECM) has that old high pressure back out east...
Tricky.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sat 12-11-11 8:19; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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there it goes again 00z above average temps until end of run, it really needs to get a more positive outlook,or i,m going to ignore it
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen,
trust me 00z is always the most negative run of the day
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
And right back to square one...
This morning's output (both GFS and ECM) has that old high pressure back out east...
Tricky. |
This is turning out to be a painful November!
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Yes and little sign of an early outbreak of cold at this stage. The trend at present remains for mild weather. That said there are hints in various recent runs of a change, but nothing that stays around long enough to really be convincing at present.
But it really is worth underlining that the weather in November has very limited correlation to the rest of winter and even at this stage (not yet half way through the month) a sudden change in the second half of November cannot be excluded.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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robboj, There's stacks of building projects all around schladming, including the main finish slope and bottom station and important works to access roads. They have been very fortunate with the weather. Another very clear day, probably the coldest morning so far in the valley (-6) and frost remained all day in the shade. A temp inversion by morning, so tops of local hills were above freezing by sunrise, not so good for keeping the snow blowers on.
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12z GFS builds on 06z by continuing the recent hints and suggestions for far more Autumnal weather in the second half of the run. With the eastern block unable to hold out, cooler (if not exceptionally cold) and wetter conditions start to take hold, bringing snow into the Alps at altitude in the fourth week of November.
Will this develop into a firm trend? If the majority of the next four runs agree I'd suggest it might. But 00z showed how easy it is to see things shift back in the other direction.
Shorter term temperatures look like dropping 5C by this time next weekend, which given how mild they have been is a step in the right direction...
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FAQ
