 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Hurtle, when brian keels over in excitement that's all I need to know! Wondering if I should go out a week early...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
rob@rar,
| Quote: |
when brian keels over in excitement that's all I need to know!
|
Spot on! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Ah, but it's NE Scotland he's wetting his pants about, isn't it?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
He He - guess where we are off to next Thursday 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
Shimmy Alcott, NE Scotland by any chance? 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
The exact track the deep low pressure chooses is going to have a big impact on snowfall next Tuesday, in the Alps, but especially in the UK as the margin between heavy rain and heavy snow is going to be so tight... It could certainly cause major disruption. Either way North East Scotland looks like it will keep harvesting the snow...
In the Alps the biggest impact could be in some of the French Alps where there could be some really big snowfall at altitude (see the operational run a few posts up). Again the precise route will determine how much and where the freezing level sits...
Next week looks like it will end with temperatures cold again before slowly warming up... Indeed FI would see the mean gradually rising towards seasonal average... by the end of the run...
However, whilst it is deep in FI, it might just be worth watching the period around 07 December, the 00z looks like an outlier when it warms things up round then, but there has been something there or thereabouts for a while now... 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
from the cairngorm blog...
| Quote: |
| not had a chance to look over the other side yet as we are trying to get the cas side all ready first. I would imagine the route down the M2 back to the Day lodge would be ok soon if the forecasted snow keeps up. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
Shimmy Alcott, based on current conditions, Cairngorm for definite. Lecht is also plastered but it's pretty small tbh. By next Thursday others might be in the running but Cairngorm is definitely the safe bet.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
brian, not at the bottom (I can make it out on the webcam), who knows at the top though, I can't see a thing on the cams but given last year it wouldn't surprise me to be honest!
Anyway, as nozawaonsen said above looks like it's gonna keep dumping for a whle yet - what an amazing start to the season eh (yet again )
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
If i wasn't full of cold and already away this weekend I would be tempted to head up!
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
06z takes Tuesday's low further south, so everything a bit colder. The Southern French alps would get an absolute hammering (50 cm or more) if that came off. Snow limit 1500m-ish.
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
Look at the fence at the bottom right. Nearly gone. There was at least a couple of feet of it showing at the start of the week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Not a flake in manchester for the past 4 days, infact all winter! Not happy, 20 miles East they have snow, 40 miles west they have snow, 15 miles north they have snow, but here, non!!! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Winter does not start till Wednesday.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
The path of the low pressure (next Tuesday/Wednesday) continues to twist and turn as we get into the final approach. 12z makes it a bit deeper, and a bit further north. Possibly making it a snowier run for the south of the UK than it was this morning? The North and East of the UK are still under siege.
The Alps still look set to take a big hit, parts of France in particular, but the south of Austria, Karnten (Carinthia), looks set for some serious snowfall too.
After the snow comes the cold and next weekend in the Alps looks like being particularly so...
Into the mists of FI and 06z backed up the earlier runs round the 07 December, the control joining the operational and making things pretty snowy (though again warmer), the 12z struggles a bit with the operational sticking to the plan, but the control switching completely and making things considerably colder. Either way by the end of the run the operational is at seasonal average (0C a5 1500m), the mean is cold (-5C at 1500m), and the control very cold (-10C at 1500m).
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
06z ensembles sees the operational losing the plot slightly with it's snow forecast for 07 December...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 06z ensembles sees the operational losing the plot slightly with it's snow forecast for 07 December... |
Any thoughts on the the freezing level rising on the 6-7th and rain coming in? or is it to early to say?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Any weather gurus know the likelihood of Scottish airports closing this weekend?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
lightningdan, in answer to your first question as a very broad guide that would be heavy rain up to 2000m, heavy snow above that. In answer to your second, yes it is too early to tell. That will switch about quite a bit, could go up or down and the rain/snow could no show... Quite where it will impact will also move around...
But the feature has been there for several days so watching how the low pressure is modelled as it closes in will give a clearer idea... Worth watching though!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
miranda, some flights were cancelled out of Glasgow today and we hadn't had snow since yesterday then again that might have been because the airports the planes were scheduled to land at were closed. They usually do a fairly good job!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| scotia wrote: |
| They usually do a fairly good job! |
scotia, thanks for that... we are hoping that about 40 guests will make it down to London from Glasgow this weekend and a few from Inverness... including the groom's parents. Will be a bit of a bummer if we have to get married without them (though of course I wish the Scottish ski resorts all the snow they could want... just not the airports!)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
miranda, I hope they get there!!!!
As for the next depression, one thing I've noticed as a fairly consistent watcher of snow-forecast (which is GFS based I believe) and GFS itself over several seasons, is that whilst FL invariably drops as a depression swoops in, it ends up, more often than not, significantly LOWER than forecast on the leading edge - so less rain, more snow. I have no idea whether that is because of my geographical location (the Beaufortain) or because of some systemic issue with GFS, or a bit of both. I have also noticed that we get, on average, significantly more snow than forecast. That probably IS a geographical factor - but does go to underline the very local nature of weather in the mountains, not just western alps or eastern alps, but round the next mountain.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
... underline the very local nature of weather in the mountains, not just western alps or eastern alps
|
pam w, yup you are absolutely right. All sorts of things can change the snowfall quite significantly from one valley to the next. Trying to model actual amounts of snowfall is very tricky. It might be fun to see charts which claim that tomorrow or a couple of days later 3cm, 17cm or 21cm will fall, but by and large I would take them with something of a pinch of salt. It is probably the trend rather than the actual amount which is worth watching.
Good local forecasts on the day or the day before, like those provided by local avalanche services are I suspect likely to be a good guide, if you want to try and figure out what a particular valley or area will look like. Certainly that is what I would look at for tomorrow's ski weather (though I'd be keeping an eye on the models to see what might be coming in the distance).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
On the subject of what might be coming in the distance (in the UK) a couple of interesting posts by Brian Glaze at TWO today:
Intense cold set to break
Posted Mon, 29 Nov 2010 19:36:56
It’s looking more and more likely that as we go through the weekend and into next week the freeze will begin to relent, and temperatures in southern and central areas will begin to rise. The cold will probably hang on longer in the north and east, although even here it may well start to warm up through next week. Before the weekend it’s going to remain extremely cold, with further snow. The weekend itself is looking messy, with rain, sleet and snow developing, although in the south and west snow should increasingly turn back to sleet and then rain. There’s still a chance the cold will win out, but it’s looking less and less likely this evening – in the UK Frosty the snowman never wins is almost always loses out sooner or later to the mild air from the Atlantic!
Previous posts
Increasing hints of milder spell
Not this week. The bitterly cold weather will continue across Britain during the next few days with further snow and severe frosts. But, I’m now increasingly looking at the wintry weather breaking down next week and NOT returning quickly. I don’t see any sign of very mild weather returning, but a spell with temperatures pushing back to the average for the time of year looks more likely. Just my views at this point, but possibly prepared to make a call on this during the next couple of days on the site homepage. Keep watching!
Posted at Mon, 29 Nov 2010 10:42:30
Raising the question of what will happen a little further into December.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, That is certainly what GFS is indicating.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
