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The all new 23/24 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@zzz, you aren't calling the forecast large amounts of snow a storm then? That's what I meant that it has started....ie the beginnings of the storm??


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 27-11-23 16:22; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Doesn't look too windy, and should be 30cm+ at 1200m by tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday will be nice.
Thursday not looking as bad as previously, maybe 30-40mm locally with temps topping out at +4c 850's or 2300m FL.
The big question is what time it goes back below zero at 1500m.....anything from Friday morning to Saturday morning on the 12 models I looked at.
ECM ensembles show the wide range.....best guess now is 2pm Friday, which would be fine for all the snow into Sat.
Earlier the better obviously, not just for below 1800m but quality of snow above.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looks like another wave of snow-rain-snow for the European Alps this week.

Snowfall very erratic. Feels like Scotland or Cyprus.

Rain is the new snow.
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Whitegold wrote:
Looks like another wave of snow-rain-snow for the European Alps this week.

Snowfall very erratic. Feels like Scotland or Cyprus.

Rain is the new snow.


Never skied in Cyprus what’s it like?
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@kitenski, sorry, must have missed that. I was just looking outside my window and all I could see were a few snow flakes.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 28-11-23 6:40; edited 3 times in total
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Alpinebear wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Looks like another wave of snow-rain-snow for the European Alps this week.

Snowfall very erratic. Feels like Scotland or Cyprus.

Rain is the new snow.


Never skied in Cyprus what’s it like?

I am from Cyprus and I can categorically tell you that it's average at best ... extremely limited amount of piste skiing but some nice lines through the pine forest at Troodos to be had on a "powder" day. Anyway, back to the weather forecast ...
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some nice snow in Chamonix ... maybe 12cms so far?
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@under a new name, snowing hard in Morzine this morning, although we have only 3-4cm’s so far in town. I think this was always going to be the snowiest day this week. Your knee up to touring yet? Tomorrow should be a great day.
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That’s at 2200m. And should be snowing all day. Tomorrow looks like a cracker if you can bear the cold. Verbier showing -13 at 1500m at 7am Shocked


Decent base all the way down to town now
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20cms being reported on Meteo Tarentaise in Bourg St Maurice , 30cms Sainte Foy Village , 35cms Tignes
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@zzz, ah, I am sure it would be (if a bit snowy on teh viz?) - but I see my surgeon for sign off on Monday and today I am, in order, putting up shelves, assembling a wardrobe, assembling sofas, hanging a TV ... we move in tomorrow Shocked

@BobinCH, @Rob Mackley, I reckon we have the same at 1,000 in Chamonix.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Weather delivered as expected last night across the whole alpine region. Looks like a great bluebird powder day tomorrow for those lucky enough to be in a open area. Next storm rolls in on Thursday. Temps and FL will rise so rain at lower levels. Although predicted FL has dropped since yesterday. Overall shaping up to be a good start to the season as long as temps stay low
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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davidof wrote:
40cm expected to the North of Grenoble from tonight through to Tuesday from 1600m.
60cm in the Beaufortain power magnet, from 1300m.
Elsewhere in the Northern French Alps, half a meter from 1300m.
Serre Chav. may even get 30cm at valley level.

Which will bring us back to the 11 November situation but with more chance of it sticking around this time.


In general around 40cm of fresh snow, 30cm towards the border areas and south
The Beaufortain picked up less than expected but has a total of 50cm for the weak.

Should enable some other ski areas to boot up at the weekend with the base of manmade they laid down this week in the cold weather.
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Instead of the 2 day relatively milder spell forecast for later this week, Bergfex for Schladming as an example, are now showing only milder temperatures today. After that unbroken cold day and night. With plenty of new snow later this week.
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A(nother) big snowfall coming up Thursday to Saturday, focussed on the NW Alps. Conditions should be pretty good at altitude right across the northern Alps once it passes through, especially given it's not even December yet! Cool

If your interests are in areas in the western Alps with lots of skiing below 1500-1800m, don't be getting too excited - quite a lot of model runs are keeping the snowline in the west (especially the further west / south you are) above 2000m for most of the storm, which may melt most / all the low altitude snow that fell yesterday and today. (Again - it's still November.) And then a new covering of snow to low altitudes at the tail end of the storm.

As you go further east the snowline will be lower, but total amounts of precipitation should be less. Once again the (Vor)Arlberg could do really well - far enough east for a lower snowline, but far enough west still to see a decent fall.

Italy should get some snow too, though generally not as much as further northwest and rain at lower altitudes.

Then - back to cold and drier again next week for at least a few days.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Could be some impressive ice around by the middle of next week given the big drop.
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@denfinella always nice to have the snow but the main focus for the Western resorts has been cold enough weather to lay the all important cannon snow for those pistes
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denfinella wrote:
(Again - it's still November.)


Friday is December.
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A brief synopsis from Meteo Tarentaise for the next few days , looks like more damage in the valley

Eh oh!Eh oh!Eh oh!

Eh oh! Eh oh!Eh oh! Eh oh! ️ TOWARDS NEW WEATHER FROM NEXT NIGHT IN TARENTAIS AND HIGH TARENTAISE, SNOW, RAIN, FLOODS, AVALANCHES...

As seen from models a few days ago, new weather is expected to hit our area starting next night with a severe disturbance coming that is expected to last through Saturday morning!
You have to expect large water accumulations in the valley, more than 70/80mm, locally up to 100mm are interviewed by models!

Added this to some LPN yoyos with a low limit early disturbance with possible heavy snow to low elevation then a LPN lift during the day and especially late Thursday evening (as well as Friday morning) into 2000/2200m (There could be 1m of snow above 2500/2800m)
Then a sharp drop from the LPN into the valley Friday night into Saturday

An explosive cocktail for possible flooding and especially avalanches.

We'll talk about it again tonight in the next bulletin!

Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )

Map from the ARPEGE model showing possible cumulus, careful map not to take at the foot of the letter (Meteociel)
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@Rob Mackley, do you have a link for a French version of that?
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Some avalanche activity this morning in the French Alps, seems like a weak layer on top of a the rain crust. The LPN (snowline) mentioned by Rob will be interesting.

Avalanche bulletin was risk 2 for the sector (Sambuy) but says the slabs are "stabilizing"; so seems like a temporary issue.

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pam w wrote:
@Rob Mackley, do you have a link for a French version of that?
He posts his forecasts on Facebook as Meteo Tarentaise. IME he’s extremely accurate for local forecasts, although rarely goes more than 3 days out.
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Zermatt looking very pretty this morning

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@rob@rar, @pam w, Yes as Rob says issues short term for Haute Tarentaise on Facebook , huge following . What I love is when you have a weather event he asks for reports back in the messages section , there were loads of pics and new sno depth reports from various levels with the valley including from the ski patrols . They now also have temperature monitoring doted around as various interesting Meteo points in the valley not only in the resorts to give them a decent picture .

https://www.facebook.com/MeteoTarentaise
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Meteo Tarentaise forecast seems to have lowered the rain/snow level a little for tomorrow which is good news .

Here’s his forecast for the Tarentaise the next 48hrs

Eh oh! Eh oh! Eh oh! Eh oh! Forecast for tomorrow Thursday:

As expected, we will enter into a highly disturbed episode, given the forecast changing and still not 100% reliable, the forecast will only be for tomorrow and night from Thursday to Friday, a new bulletin will be issued tomorrow during the day.

So the first rainfall arrives tonight from 23/00h.
Snowing from 900m altitude then the LPN rises in the second part of the night to 1400/1500m altitude then 1800m at dawn.
This LPN could continue to rise to 1900/2000m altitude locally in the morning and afternoon.
Will have to wait for the early night of Thursday to Friday to expect the LPN to drop around 1700/1800m then up to 1500/1600m by late night.

Cumulus will be in the order of 40 to 60mm by Friday morning, locally 65mm.
At altitude, we expect more than 50cm by Friday morning above 2500m, and sometimes more above 2800.
On the 1500/1800m slope, the snow layer will vary depending on the LPN that will do the yoyo, a very heavy snow awaits us.

For Friday, nothing is still calm, return of snow from the average mountain, new rain episode up to 1800/1900m? We will talk about it tomorrow
One thing for sure, coming back from the cold to see very cold for the weekend!

Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )

Map from GFS (Weather) model
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The Tarentaise is fairly inneralpine, along with the usual suspects like Chamonix and the Beaufortain. Areas further west, down the valleys towards the edge of the Alps will have a higher snowline for a large chunk of the storm (esp. areas surrounding Grenoble / Chambery I think).

The latest GFS run does have temperatures dropping away a little quicker though, which will mean more snow at the back end of the storm. Fingers crossed.
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Thurs and Fri are going to see biblical rain in the European Alps.

Rain up to 2500m in parts of Italy and elsewhere.

If you're going skiing, take an umbrella.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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denfinella wrote:
The Tarentaise is fairly inneralpine, along with the usual suspects like Chamonix and the Beaufortain. Areas further west, down the valleys towards the edge of the Alps will have a higher snowline for a large chunk of the storm (esp. areas surrounding Grenoble / Chambery I think).


Less rain forecast around Grenoble so although it will be warm it may suffer less. Snowline will be way over 2000 meters, so not great really. Will see if I can ski Saturday, or not. Was busy today which was "the" day this week.
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Snowing in North Yorkshire tonight and showers reaching into the Pennines, but I don’t think the avalanche level will be that high tomorrow!
https://www.westmorlandandfurness.gov.uk/parking-streets-and-transport/streets-roads-and-pavements/weather-cameras?station=364
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Weathertoski (2pm Wednesday 29 November 2023):

The weather in the Alps is about to get very interesting, with a complex new storm set to reach the western Alps tonight which will affect all areas to a greater or lesser extent over the next two or three days.

This new storm is extremely complicated to forecast because the rain/snow line will be all over the place. It will generally start very low on Wednesday night (at which point the heaviest precipitation will fall in the western Alps) and will stay low for a while in the more enclosed valleys, including areas around Bourg Saint Maurice and Chamonix. However, on mountains more exposed to the west (e.g. Avoriaz) it will quickly rise, with rain falling to 2000m or higher later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, the rain and snow will move steadily further east reaching most parts of the Alps over the course of the day. The rain/snow limit will again start low in the more enclosed valleys of the central and eastern Alps, but will soon rise to 2200-2400m across the western Alps (e.g. France). It will also rise further east, albeit more slowly.

All in all, a significant loss of snow can be expected at lower altitudes over the next couple of days, especially in the western Alps, though it will probably not be as acute as during the last ‘rainy thaw’ the other week. This milder interlude won’t last too long either, with rain tending to turn back to snow on Friday, at first in the north, then later further south.

Between now and Sunday morning we can expect a lot of new snow at altitude across the Alps, perhaps 60-90cm (or even more) above 2200m in parts of the western Alps, but more generally 30-50cm. The risk of avalanche will become very high and flooding could again be an issue lower down.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Old Fartbag wrote:
Weathertoski (2pm Wednesday 29 November 2023):

The weather in the Alps is about to get very interesting, with a complex new storm set to reach the western Alps tonight which will affect all areas to a greater or lesser extent over the next two or three days.

This new storm is extremely complicated to forecast because the rain/snow line will be all over the place. It will generally start very low on Wednesday night (at which point the heaviest precipitation will fall in the western Alps) and will stay low for a while in the more enclosed valleys, including areas around Bourg Saint Maurice and Chamonix. However, on mountains more exposed to the west (e.g. Avoriaz) it will quickly rise, with rain falling to 2000m or higher later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday, the rain and snow will move steadily further east reaching most parts of the Alps over the course of the day. The rain/snow limit will again start low in the more enclosed valleys of the central and eastern Alps, but will soon rise to 2200-2400m across the western Alps (e.g. France). It will also rise further east, albeit more slowly.

All in all, a significant loss of snow can be expected at lower altitudes over the next couple of days, especially in the western Alps, though it will probably not be as acute as during the last ‘rainy thaw’ the other week. This milder interlude won’t last too long either, with rain tending to turn back to snow on Friday, at first in the north, then later further south.

Between now and Sunday morning we can expect a lot of new snow at altitude across the Alps, perhaps 60-90cm (or even more) above 2200m in parts of the western Alps, but more generally 30-50cm. The risk of avalanche will become very high and flooding could again be an issue lower down.


The rain/mild air appears to be confined to unlucky France. For example Verbier and Zermatt at resort level are forecast to briefly peak at +2c Thursday and Friday. Instead, 80cm of new snow.
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Big temperature gradients across the Alps and across France. MeteoAlpes have suggested in their most recent article on Skipass.com that there will be a period during this storm where it'll be raining in Tignes and simultaneously snowing in Annecy!
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denfinella wrote:
Big temperature gradients across the Alps and across France. MeteoAlpes have suggested in their most recent article on Skipass.com that there will be a period during this storm where it'll be raining in Tignes and simultaneously snowing in Annecy!


isnt that sleet?
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zero iso at 2500m in Val d'Isere this am.
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Blimey, it was snowing an hour ago at 600m at ours
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Zero at 1,400m in Serre Che and puking.

I'm sure hoping that this weather event goes to show how wrong forecasts can be NehNeh

Laughing Laughing

Though seriously just hoping that the warm temps are just not delayed.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 30-11-23 9:49; edited 1 time in total
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More snow for the north western alps next week perhaps?
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@BobinCH, it had snowed at ours before 08:00 by which it had turned to rain. It's 1 degree though and looking out the window the LPN (love that) is around 1,400m?
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Gored wrote:
denfinella wrote:
Big temperature gradients across the Alps and across France. MeteoAlpes have suggested in their most recent article on Skipass.com that there will be a period during this storm where it'll be raining in Tignes and simultaneously snowing in Annecy!

isnt that sleet?

No.
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@Weathercam, does "puking" mean snow, or just precipitation in general.
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