 Poster: A snowHead
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Currently looking less likely that snowfall tomorrow reach below 2000m. The 06z looked like bringing in some cooler weather around 20 November after a week of some pretty mild weather. But no real consistency at present. This evening's 12z may start to firm things up or may not.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I popped up to the Grand Massif today for a snoop about. Heartbreaking amounts of snow has perished. Just a few forlorn domes of man-made here and there. That'll be gone soon. Back to square one for anything below about 2000m in France pretty much. Soaking wet warm ground, no base.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ECM has cooler weather pushing in on 21 November, GFS 23 November. Hmmm.
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Mr Piehole, is still early November! Panic in about 50 days if it's still like that!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm not panicking, but it was sad to see considering it looked like Alaska about 10 days ago.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Mr Piehole, is still early November! Panic in about 50 days if it's still like that!! |
50 days? Mr Piehole was probably hoping to be skiing every weekend in a fortnight.
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Well let's hope we get some decent snow sooner than 50 days.
At the other end of the season or rather next season I see in Le Dauphine that the DSF in France is upset that French school holidays in 2014 will run from 18 April to 19 May due to the late Easter, but as a result possibly substantially reducing the numbers that might be skiing in April in France.
Les stations inquiètes pour le calendrier des vacances de Pâques 2014
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 11-11-12 14:14; edited 1 time in total
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Mr Piehole, The whole of the Grand Massif was brown / green at the start of december last year, not a white bit in sight...then look what happened.....
old thread from last year...the snowless report at the start!
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=82845
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carroz, oh yes I remember last year very well 
P.S. I think we've nearly settled on the GM as our 'home' for this Winter...
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Some decent snow falling above 2000m at present.
Findeln webcam (near Zermatt)
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sun 11-11-12 14:15; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Quick glance at this afternoon's GFS amongst the rugby (All Blacks scary as ever) and it is starting to look a bit better after next weekend. Good.
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You know it makes sense.
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That Findeln webcam looks pretty good (to someone who's heading that way in a few weeks) - still too early to get excited about lying snow though (I keep trying to tell myself...).
All Blacks can't be that good if they conceded 3 to Scotland 
(yeah, I know...they're unbeatable)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Here's SLF's Sunday update.
Incremental decrease of avalanche danger
http://www.slf.ch/lawineninfo/lawinenbulletin/nationale_lawinenbulletins/index_EN
"On Saturday, 10 November, precipitation set in from the west and the south, which reached its highest intensity during the night on Saturday and the morning hours of Sunday, 11 November... The snowfall level in the central part of the southern flank of the Alps was at about 1300 to 1700 m... The precipitation fell completely in the form of snow above 2000 m on the southern flank of the Alps and above 2500 m in the remaining regions. Along the Main Alpine Ridge from Monte Rosa into the Bernina region and southwards thereof, there was 40 to 80 cm of new fallen ... In the remaining regions of the Valais and Grisons... there was 20 to 40 cm of fresh fallen snow; in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm. The southerly wind was blowing intermittently at storm strength on Saturday."
"Development
On Monday, 12 November, under the influence of a high pressure system the clouds will rapidly disperse. Above the high fog it will turn quite sunny. The midday temperatures at 2000 m will be plus 1 degree. The wind will be blowing at light to moderate strength from southerly directions.
Between Tuesday, 13 November, and Thursday, 15 November, it is expected to be predominantly sunny above the high fog and very mild in the mountains, with the zero degree level at 3000 m."
"Outlook
On Friday, 16 November, it will become predominantly sunny and mild once again. On Saturday, 17 November, it will turn somewhat cooler and probably cloudier. The avalanche danger will continue to recede."
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Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting ECM run this evening. Has cold weather approaching from the east. It's at the edge of ECM's range so would need to start cropping up in more runs, but worth keeping an eye on for tomorrow.
GFS went down a rather different route, but would still have produced cooler temperatures and snow over the Alps by that point and again a few days later. A little earlier (17 November) it also dropped some heavy rain on the southern French Alps (Les Deux Alpes) which would be snow above 2000m.
Not sure I'd read much into the detail (both models after all can't be right with such different outcomes), but some suggestions that the milder weather coming later this week may not last too long.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Chopping and changing from model to model and run to run at present. What does seem set is that it will be increasingly sunny in the mountains over the next five days and mild too during the day.
Beyond that ECM has cooler weather from 21 November, GFS colder from 23 November with snow. How they both get there is very different in detail but tends to involve blocking to the north east over Scandinavia.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting picture posted by American weather forecaster joe bastardi who has a theory about how quickly winter snow cover extends over the northern hemisphere affecting how harsh the winter is
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| ChrisWo wrote: |
That Findeln webcam looks pretty good (to someone who's heading that way in a few weeks) - still too early to get excited about lying snow though (I keep trying to tell myself...).
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Yes, must remain calm. 6 weeks out until Zermatt. Right now I'm hoping to get some skiing in BEFORE leaving for Switzerland in my own backyard. 20CM-26Cm reported overnight in the Central to Northern Cascade range. Freezing level going to about 1,300-1,400 meters today. Was down to about 1,000 meters overnight. A bit of warming trend though for later in the week with FL going to about 1,800 meters.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Daleskier, anymore detail of Bastardi's theory?
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HutToHut, there is a fair amount of research to indicate that there is a relationship between both the extent and speed of growth of Eurasian snow cover in autumn and the NAO/AO (roughly the more snow cover the more likely a negative AO). It is one of several factors.
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Thank you nozawaonsen, you put that better than I ever could!!!
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| Daleskier wrote: |
Interesting picture posted by American weather forecaster joe bastardi who has a theory about how quickly winter snow cover extends over the northern hemisphere affecting how harsh the winter is
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If accurate, that is a good set of images.
Norway is having a record start to the season, and the rightside image shows it nicely.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Strong 18z GFS.
Very cold end to November.
Snow in the Alps from 22 November. Snow in Scotland a few days later.
Quite possibly coldest run of autumn so far.
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| Quote: |
Very cold end to November.
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BRRR
Not really looking forward to something like that
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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kioksor, the op run was a really outlier, so low probability for now. Will see if it picks up some support during tomorrow.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Mild for the time of year and sunny before GFS goes for snow and colder than average temperatures arriving on 22 November. Not as cold as last night's GFS, but enough to bring snow to low levels.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Daleskier wrote: |
Interesting picture posted by American weather forecaster joe bastardi who has a theory about how quickly winter snow cover extends over the northern hemisphere affecting how harsh the winter is
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If accurate, that is a good set of images.
Norway is having a record start to the season, and the rightside image shows it nicely. |
Those photos are not accurate. It's actually the surface temp at -1C for the area. It is not the actual snow or ice cover. It's been debunked by a group of weather geeks. Apparently Bastardi is somewhat controversial when it comes to global warming and climate change.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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He sounds like a complete and utter Bastardi.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Yes he (mr bastardi)?is'nt one for global warming, but proports more of a cyclical journey thru warm and cold periods, which given more recent evidence is'nt actually that controversial. He is however quite a partisan and vocal republican and given the state of American politics currently he ain't that popular with many more progressive types of people who watch the weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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On a more personal note, it's interesting to note back in '89 when I started my environmental science degree global warming was some kooky idea proported by lefty loonies. Being a lefty loony myself I was quite caught up in the whole thing but since 2005 I have to admit that I have become increasingly more sceptical of the science being presented to me. I'm very much in support of looking after the planet, reduction in pollution, efficient energy use etc etc, however I'm rather more persuaded by the cyclical ideas and the effect of the sun proported by joe bastardi piers corbyn and the rest of the right wing scientific community despite still being a bit of a lefty pinko in my 40s. Their ideas just seem to fit the evidence more easily than the CO2/global warming crowd.
As a further observation the politics of this whole area has become so polarised that it's almost impossible to empirically study climate without being dragged into the mire of left vs right argument. It's very frustrating!!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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from http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/11/antarctica-sea-ice-latest-glob.shtml
The record breaking Arctic sea ice minimum recorded this summer (based on satellite data) was well documented in the media and on this blog.
| Quote: |
| Conversely, at the other end of the world, little mention was made of the Antarctica ice extent which approached a record high in September, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). |
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Here's an update from Utah Ski Weather... http://utahskiweather.com/discussions/conditions
"Conditions this past weekend were pretty awesome up in the mountains. In some places there was actually TOO MUCH snow to even ski downhill! We heard reports of difficult trail breaking and fun turns."
"Well, we had an epic start to winter this weekend with a MASSIVE lake effect snow event that dumps 1-4 FEET of snow on the Wasatch Mountains. Highest totals were seen in upper Little Cottonwood Canyon. After 3 days of snow, the storm has finally moved off to the east and left us under zonal flow."
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The only thread in town - crack-cocaine for the early season skier...
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No repeat of Monday night's very cold pub run so far. A mild week at least to come. This morning's GFS would produce a sudstau with snow in the southern French Alps and French Italian border on 23 and 24 November.
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Thanks for that link. I guess it comes down to how accurate those pics are of the white snow bits, especially if the purple bits (ice) are not accurate in Joe's tweet. In any event, if the theory of cyclical weather patterns is valid, then I hope the Earth is now entering into a cold, wet, snowy cycle. And I hope the cycle lasts for a good 50 years or so, just to be safe. Who knows, I may still want to ski powder in my 90's! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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look a bit dry 
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