This northerly was visible 10 days ago on a few models....comparing the chart posted on Nov 14th to today, it's about as good as you can get at +252 hours, for the exact timestamp.
The main difference is the slight shift to the east with the south greenland low and scandi trough.
As we get into the official start of winter months there's no sign of mild yet
Looks great out to tuesday, then a warm up on thurs (+3c at 850, 2000m+ snowline maybe) as SW air mixes in, but most models have it quickly turning cold again on Friday 1st Dec, but too far for detail to be reliable.
Next 2 weeks on EC46, good NW flow next week and then a more southerly jet possible, like we saw early Nov.....huge amount of northern blocking (greenland / arctic high pressure) to keep it cold in europe around month end....chalk one down for Mr Smith and the moon cycles
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 24-11-23 13:01; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Nice top up North of Rhône
After all it is free
After all it is free
hmmm, a few flocons in Chamonix, nothing terribly exciting yet.
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a bit off topic, but in Austria there was a channel that streamed webcams all day.
Not sure if it was a TV channel or youtube channel. Anyone know the channel or a link?
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Gored wrote:
a bit off topic, but in Austria there was a channel that streamed webcams all day.
Not sure if it was a TV channel or youtube channel. Anyone know the channel or a link?
This channel has a live stream for Austria, Switzerland and the Dolomites
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Gored wrote:
a bit off topic, but in Austria there was a channel that streamed webcams all day.
Not sure if it was a TV channel or youtube channel. Anyone know the channel or a link?
A number of TV channels have it on on a morning, pictures come from Feratel. They have a YouTube channel http://youtube.com/v/NIuO6hrFTrg
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Chris_n wrote:
Gored wrote:
a bit off topic, but in Austria there was a channel that streamed webcams all day.
Not sure if it was a TV channel or youtube channel. Anyone know the channel or a link?
A number of TV channels have it on on a morning, pictures come from Feratel. They have a YouTube channel http://youtube.com/v/NIuO6hrFTrg
Thank you.
For many years I’ve had something similar or the same on Austrian hotel room TV’s, whilst getting ready to ski.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Better than expected. It will be amazing further East…
a bit off topic, but in Austria there was a channel that streamed webcams all day.
Not sure if it was a TV channel or youtube channel. Anyone know the channel or a link?
Treat those numbers with caution - I suspect they're derived from one of the recent GFS operational runs which are clear outliers, i.e. most areas probably won't get that much. That 187cm figure in the west looks particularly unlikely.
General pattern is unsettled though and not too mild, so looking very promising for the northern side of the Alpine arc, and good snowmaking opportunities for the south side.
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denfinella wrote:
Treat those numbers with caution - I suspect they're derived from one of the recent GFS operational runs which are clear outliers, i.e. most areas probably won't get that much. That 187cm figure in the west looks particularly unlikely.
Rubbish. We’re getting 2m of champagne powder guaranteed
Ski the Net with snowHeads
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Quote:
Rubbish. We’re getting 2m of champagne powder guaranteed
well if you do then we expect the vids to be posted here
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@snowheid, would it not be more efficient to move the general weather outlook chat to the verbier thread?
I sometimes refer to the Western Alps as just the french part, which is technically wrong. Most of switzerland is included per wikipedia which uses the Partizone delle Alpi to also include places like Aosta and the Arlberg in the Central alps, with the Eastern Alps being Brenner Pass to Croatia. Anyway, probably just need to be more specific.
@denfinella, is right that those snow charts are single run single model output, going out anywhere from 1-10 days, so you can pick and choose what run to show and how far out. That's why I've used 3-4 of the most recent runs in the past to get a broader view.
eg here's the 00z out to sat 30th, pretty standard and even distribution from tuesdays NW'ly.
Looking out to Dec 4th can see higher numbers at the western end as the main low checks back towards France to absorb lower running atlantic systems. These peak numbers btw can be often overstated, volatile or isolated, so as usual best to look at individual resort output for anything reliable, especially regarding expected ppn quantities at each freeze level.
That pattern change though brings the risk of milder air. Thursday looking a bit warmer now than I guessed....4 Op's below show thurs afternoon might see a small pool of +4 to +8c at 1500m (2500m FL approx) along western and maybe northern ridge, while the south remains much cooler.
But it still looks very brief with temps falling sharply again into the weekend as the low crosses and pulls in NW air.
So several good days ahead......and the first serious attempt to form a base to low levels...... anyone's guess as to how long it will last.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
oooh I am getting excited for this coming week.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
This week looks magnificent!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Bergfex (GFS?) has the FL at > 2,000 metres for a big chunk of Thursday (cooling down rapidly Thursday into Friday) for the western Alps … hopefully, the flow will change between now and then. Austria (particularly the Arlberg) looks like the main beneficiary.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thursday is becoming problematic on ECM (bergfex); it has huge amounts of rain (70mm) to mid altitude and only drops the temp very late (NW alps) for a trickle of snow. So Tuesdays 30cm will be largely wrecked below 2000 and there might only be a few cm’s on Sat.
That is the worst case scenario, I’ll have a more detailed look later, GFS and others look much better, but can’t exclude ECM until it changes.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, What I find most concerning these days is the temperature gradient between the cold air to the mild side , the cold seems well about the same normal I suppose but the mild side these days is almost tropical sometimes in my head 3 to 4c warmer than it used to be , is it me or is this what’s happening as @whitegold would describe as the boiling planet .
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Rob Mackley, well yes the UN said we are in an era of global boiling, while their Secretary for Global Comms Melissa Fleming said "We own the science on climate change". Where have we heard that before.....I am naturally skeptical of such bold assertions. But for whatever reason global temps are generally rising, it's not uniform or linear though, there have been periods recently of 5-10 years where records are not relentlessly broken. In terms of your question I think you are right that temps to our south have become warmer, so we are seeing more and more 2500-3000m snowlines that would have been extremely rare in previous decades. There is also some research that shows the Azores high has become more bloated at a higher latitude, so western europe becoming more high pressure dominated.
And ironically, the cold spells in europe now are almost always a result of northern blocking.....ie we only get below zero when the far northern lattitudes are above normal temperature. And some evidence that stormy weather is more frequent now as the temperature gradient between mid and high lattitude steepens, so again europe seeing heavier downpours from the warm atlantic. But I don't have any papers or stats, just comments I've read, and probably shouldn't derail too much.
Euro temps are generally looking at -6c to -12c below normal into early Dec, so overall a great backdrop, it's just the pattern switch (more than CC impact) to flatter / southerly lows that is going to mix in sub tropical air briefly.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Techie question, does the GFS meteogramm only work on "round" figures?
ie this link below which is what I believe is the lat/long for meribel doesn't work
@kitenski, I suspect it's the website as opposed to GFS, eg ensemble charts on meteociel use at least 4-5 decimal places for long/lattitude, Meribel below
40cm expected to the North of Grenoble from tonight through to Tuesday from 1600m.
60cm in the Beaufortain power magnet, from 1300m.
Elsewhere in the Northern French Alps, half a meter from 1300m.
Serre Chav. may even get 30cm at valley level.
Which will bring us back to the 11 November situation but with more chance of it sticking around this time.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@davidof, which would be very welcome
After all it is free
After all it is free
I'll take that!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
thanks......
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