 Poster: A snowHead
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| holidayloverxx wrote: |
You have been told to self isolate but are going to a hospital where, if you do have it, you could spread it to sick people. Thats not isolating. You arent supposed to go out at all
That makes the advice suspect. It also makes me wonder how testing takes place if people are suspected of being infected |
The instructions will be to attend a particular part of the hospital by car where people have to go in individually and be swabbed by people in prtoective gear and then return home without going anywhere else by car.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| holidayloverxx wrote: |
| bambionskiis wrote: |
I rang 111 and have been told to self-isolate for 14 days and will be going to the local hospital for swabbing, probably tomorrow. Frustrating as I know it’s only a cold and I only rang up for a bit of reassurance!! Timing is pants as we have a family break away this weekend to scatter dad’s ashes, but I’ve just cancelled it. Poor mum (82) doesn’t need a cold/flu-/Coronavirus at this time.
I mentioned the words “French alps”, “Turin”, Italy” and “cough” and that was it!! |
I dont understand this.
You know its only a cold but called 111 for reassurance. What was the point of that? What did you expect?
I wouldn't knock this cautious approach and liberal testing. UK has a handle on all its cases so far. I'm assuming she'll be going to part of hospital with all precautions and negligible risk transmission. Fascinating statistic that France, a country with same population as UK, and bordering on Italy, has conducted 10 times fewer tests!! And now they have handful of new cases where source is unclear..
You have been told to self isolate but are going to a hospital where, if you do have it, you could spread it to sick people. Thats not isolating. You arent supposed to go out at all
That makes the advice suspect. It also makes me wonder how testing takes place if people are suspected of being infected |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| T Bar wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
It's a bit of flu and flu kills. There is no treatment for any strain. There is no evidence that anyone with no prior condition or inherent weakness has been killed by this novel variant. |
The information from China published in the Lancet is that people with no prior illnesses are indeed dying of it.
The mortality suggested is far higher than that of seasonal flu and it is killing previously healthy people.
Unlike flu because it is a new virus it is unlikely that there is much immunity to it in the population so many more may become infected. |
Which paper? Citation please. As far as I have read it looks like 2% but with the caveat that infection rates are likely very under reported with minimal or no symptoms ... flu viruses mutate quickly enough that prior immunity is of limited value ...
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| T Bar wrote: |
| holidayloverxx wrote: |
You have been told to self isolate but are going to a hospital where, if you do have it, you could spread it to sick people. Thats not isolating. You arent supposed to go out at all
That makes the advice suspect. It also makes me wonder how testing takes place if people are suspected of being infected |
The instructions will be to attend a particular part of the hospital by car where people have to go in individually and be swabbed by people in prtoective gear and then return home without going anywhere else by car. |
Thanks ..i hope so
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| ...But apart from few small towns in Italy seems to me little real containment... |
The virus has now spread in half of the Italian's regions:
Lombardy: 261 cases and 9 deaths
Veneto: 72 cases and 2 deaths
Emilia Romagna: 30 cases and 1 death
Piedmont: 1 case
Lazio: 3 cases
Liguria: 6 cases
Tuscany: 2 cases
Sicily: 3 cases
Marche: 2 cases
Alto Adige: 1 case
A total of 35 cases are currently in intensive care.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Thu 27-02-20 8:27; edited 1 time in total
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A level headed approach though I would be wary of using death rate of SARS to assess risk - it may be a third of SARS or less, but the numbers infected are already a magnitude greater with no signs yet of stopping. Calculation of personal risk of infection/death must take that into account and I can see it's globally greater than it was with SARS but I can't calculate it.
I'm still planning to fly into Turin on Saturday. Yes I am probably increasing my risk but by how much, I don't know.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| T Bar wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
It's a bit of flu and flu kills. There is no treatment for any strain. There is no evidence that anyone with no prior condition or inherent weakness has been killed by this novel variant. |
The information from China published in the Lancet is that people with no prior illnesses are indeed dying of it.
The mortality suggested is far higher than that of seasonal flu and it is killing previously healthy people.
Unlike flu because it is a new virus it is unlikely that there is much immunity to it in the population so many more may become infected. |
Which paper? Citation please. As far as I have read it looks like 2% but with the caveat that infection rates are likely very under reported with minimal or no symptoms ... flu viruses mutate quickly enough that prior immunity is of limited value ... |
Seasonal flu has a mortality of around 0.1% 2% is around 20 times as high.
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Nit sure what happend to my post 
I meant to say I wouldn't knock this cautious approach to isolation and testing. UK has handle on all its cases. In last day or 2 France has reported a handful of cases where source not clear. But fascinating statistic that France has conducted 10 times fewer tests than UK. Seems a couple in Germany have travelled and worked with similar symptoms for 10 days and only now have been tested which is positive. I think UK approach very appropriate and gives best chance of keeping handle on everything for as long as possible
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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And 2% mortality is more likely to be underestimate rather than overestimate of true mortality. Read the section on how mortality in epidemics calculated in globometrics page
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@bambionskiis, it’s a cold. Be reassured. Take Lemsip. Or whisky.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN20L0IB
More irresponsible journalism. Do they not know it is perfectly safe to go skiing and none of the affected areas are anywhere near a ski resort etc etc?
Fwiw I haven't actually seen or read any sensationalist headlines but I don't tend to read crap
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@T Bar, I didn’t ask for an arithmetic lesson, I asked for you to cite your source. Thanks.
@peanuthead, which page? Who? What? Link please.
What I have read suggests that under reporting is likely raising the mortality rate.
And most of the data are Chinese, which immediately makes them somewhat suspect.
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@holidayloverxx, guy interviewed on BBC this morning and similar advice and was tested in his car at the hospital.
This reaction by 111 staff might also explain why there isn't a huge gap between the number of test done in Italy and here.
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You know it makes sense.
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@adithorp, yes...probably. im pleased people are being tested
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 27-02-20 8:51; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Chuckles3, i hope that means dont come into contact with anyone not suitably protected not just patients
Oh...he deleted his post
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 27-02-20 8:53; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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@under a new name,
The coronavirus page is free to access in the Lancet it is there. I have previously linked to it on the other thread.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| holidayloverxx wrote: |
@Chuckles3, i hope that means dont come into contact with anyone not suitably protected not just patients
Oh...he deleted his post |
Yes apologies. That’s the problem with interwebbing whilst half asleep. I was trying to say I had seen reported hospitals have set up pods apparently to ensure CV potential patients only go to that & no where else. I guess no system is perfect & completely relies on the patient not being an idiot about how they interpret the word ‘isolation’.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks for your concern holidayloverxxx! I called as I was fed up with my family nagging as my symptoms have worsened. I’m told, like many other hospitals in the country, there will be a pod set up in the car park where staff are barrier nursing - away from other patients obviously. I have to drive myself. I’m self-isolating until I know for sure I haven’t got it (and that it is in fact just a cold) as I’m public spirited. If everyone is blasé, ignores it and assumes it just a cold there will be a lot of elderly people (like my dad who recently passed away) who will die either of coronovirus or just flu. I don’t want that on my conscience.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@T Bar, unhelpfully, the Lancet page doesn't highlight "here's the paper that @T Bar refers to". 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| T Bar wrote: |
| under a new name wrote: |
| T Bar wrote: |
| Bodeswell wrote: |
It's a bit of flu and flu kills. There is no treatment for any strain. There is no evidence that anyone with no prior condition or inherent weakness has been killed by this novel variant. |
The information from China published in the Lancet is that people with no prior illnesses are indeed dying of it.
The mortality suggested is far higher than that of seasonal flu and it is killing previously healthy people.
Unlike flu because it is a new virus it is unlikely that there is much immunity to it in the population so many more may become infected. |
Which paper? Citation please. As far as I have read it looks like 2% but with the caveat that infection rates are likely very under reported with minimal or no symptoms ... flu viruses mutate quickly enough that prior immunity is of limited value ... |
Seasonal flu has a mortality of around 0.1% 2% is around 20 times as high. |
20 times is correct as per epidemiologist on Irish radio yesterday.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@oldschool72, are you sure that 0.02 is 20 x 0.001? I think we need evidence.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @T Bar, unhelpfully, the Lancet page doesn't highlight "here's the paper that @T Bar refers to". |
I am just off to work, there is a Chinese paper describing their experience and characteristics of their first cases.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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If, as the doomsayers would have us believe, these figures are just the tip of the iceberg and there are many more cases that have not been detected yet and/or will not be due to lack of symptoms, does this not mean the actual deaths: infections ratio is much lower?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I’ve just looked up Spanish Flu in Wikipedia and now feel rather more optimistic about the Coronavirus. Interesting stuff.
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| under a new name wrote: |
@T Bar, I didn’t ask for an arithmetic lesson, I asked for you to cite your source. Thanks.
@peanuthead, which page? Who? What? Link please.
What I have read suggests that under reporting is likely raising the mortality rate.
And most of the data are Chinese, which immediately makes them somewhat suspect. |
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You can click on link where it discusses how mortality rate measured, also it gives separate figures and graphs for outside China in other links
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You know it makes sense.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0227/1117864-coronavirus-europe/
Is this first case picked up at ski resort? |
How do you know he picked it up at a ski resort?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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He came back from ski trip in Italy. Is it semantics if he picked up in resort or at the airport?
Probably a lot more similar cases will be reported over next few days
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Poster: A snowHead
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| peanuthead wrote: |
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0227/1117864-coronavirus-europe/
Is this first case picked up at ski resort? |
He'd been to a ski resort but where was he exposed to the virus?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Hells Bells, thanks (I had found that but as mentioned, it doesn't tag by SHs handles  , bizarrely.
@Whitters, I am wondering how his GP tested him?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| peanuthead wrote: |
He came back from ski trip in Italy. Is it semantics if he picked up in resort or at the airport?
Probably a lot more similar cases will be reported over next few days |
Come on. Its not semantics to muddle, deliberately or otherwise, a ski resort with an airport hub and god knows where else in between.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Drove to Turin airport this morning, and apart from the lack of any decent snowfall overnight / early hours and being a superb Bluebird morning the only sign was that the last toll booth before the autostrada that are normally manned were all closed.
Autostrada was it's usual hectic self!
At the airport and no obvious signs of anything untoward, just BA checkin staff wearing gloves.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@peanuthead, thanks (so - not "globo-" anything?  )
Basically, they're saying not enough data and the data aren't good enough, plus I note, "Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College in the UK, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there were only 2,000 confirmed cases at the time." Which would make quite a difference if true ...
One think from that site though, they are displaying data with an extraordinary degree of precision. i.e. world population to single digits - how do they know? (They don't) Which does makes me wonder. False precision as statistical clickbaiting?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Would a rounded number be any more accurate, @under a new name? Any method of estimating population will come up with a single digit number. There's a very small chance it'd end in a string of zeros.
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Folks travel to and from Italian Airports to access a Ski Resort...
Its quite possible someone infected could of passed it on in transit (Bus) or at the Ski Area.(restaurants,bars,saunas etc) ..
One week in a Ski Area someone could then of infected many people ......all this time not knowing they were infected themselves flown home and spent another week troaming around before the symptons began to show.... 
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 27-02-20 10:38; edited 1 time in total
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@pam w, but those zeros would not be significant. It's displaying false precision - and worse, it is counting up and down as though it was a real time data feed. Somewhat disingenuous.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| bambionskiis wrote: |
| Thanks for your concern holidayloverxxx! I called as I was fed up with my family nagging as my symptoms have worsened. I’m told, like many other hospitals in the country, there will be a pod set up in the car park where staff are barrier nursing - away from other patients obviously. I have to drive myself. I’m self-isolating until I know for sure I haven’t got it (and that it is in fact just a cold) as I’m public spirited. If everyone is blasé, ignores it and assumes it just a cold there will be a lot of elderly people (like my dad who recently passed away) who will die either of coronovirus or just flu. I don’t want that on my conscience. |
Well thats fair enough...but you said you know its just a cold. It might not have been you but someone said they had a runny nose and drporat said that wasnt a symptom so it was a cold. Did 111 ask about the symptoms...and if you do have a runny nose did you mention it? Genuine question to understand how 111 is triaging.
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Interesting item on BBC Today program this morning.
Interviewee made the point that eventually almost everyone is going to be exposed eventually, whatever measures are put in place.
There is no vaccine, there is very little natural immunity and it's relatively infectious.
He argued against the large scale lock-downs used in China as even if they prove effective in the short term they will only postpone the inevitable, possibly until the Autumn when the northern hemisphere healthcare systems are are at the beginning of their busiest period. Far better to try to slow the spread of infection a little and push the peak infection rate back into the summer months.
My understanding was he thought the current measures in the UK and Europe are about right.
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FAQ
