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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
ski wrote:
It's going to be fine... where would you rather be -- in the mountains with (some) snow, or back home ? Puzzled


I like your attitude Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

where would you rather be -- in the mountains with (some) snow, or back home ?

Personally I'll be in the mountains regardless and if the snow is not great for skiing I'll be doing some other stuff too. But then I am lucky and will have plenty of skiing throughout the season. When we were younger, with kids, we could definitely only afford a week a year. So for people trying to decide now whether to book for Christmas/New Year, or for later in the season, it does make sense to wait and see and keep a close eye on the weather developments.

The question then is "would you rather be in the mountains with some snow or in the mountains with some more snow".

I have to say that whilst Christmas in the mountains is infinitely preferable to Christmas in the UK with too much telly and too much food and drink, it's not a great time of year to ski. Days are very short and snow cover is usually much better later in the season. New Year is statistically slightly more likely to have decent snow but the crowds can be horrendous. Still better than being at home, maybe, but IMV not better than a week in early February with no lift queues.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
^ I disgree. I've been going skiing the week before Christmas for the past 7 years and have had good snow without fail, even in poor snow years. It's a great time to ski! Quite often we've had good snow, then it's not snowed for weeks afterwards. The days might be slightly shorter but that doesn't really matter.
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Quote:

I have to say that whilst Christmas in the mountains is infinitely preferable to Christmas in the UK with too much telly and too much food and drink, it's not a great time of year to ski.


I have to take enforced holidays from work over Christmas and New Year so Christmas in the mountains even if there was no snow is infinitely preferable to me but I don't intend to break from UK tradition too much and intend to have far too much food and drink while I'm there Twisted Evil
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:

I've been going skiing the week before Christmas for the past 7 years and have had good snow without fail, even in poor snow years

that's good - you've been lucky, and/or made a good choice of resort. However, there is absolutely no argument that, statistically speaking, there is likely to be more snow later in the season. Just look at any of the historical snow depth records. This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a fact, regardless of whether individuals have had good or bad experiences.
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^ I'm not arguing that at all, just saying that Christmas time IS a good time to ski .. IF you pick the right resort Wink

The bit I disagreed with wasn't the snow cover, it was just you saying that it's not a great time to ski.

In fact it's wonderful.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
HoneyBunny wrote:
^ I'm not arguing that at all, just saying that Christmas time IS a good time to ski .. IF you pick the right resort Wink

The bit I disagreed with wasn't the snow cover, it was just you saying that it's not a great time to ski.

In fact it's wonderful.


+1000 HoneyBunny

why are there so many more people with glasses half empty on snowheads than the statistical norm?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
For those of you closer to the alps or who might get to ski more often I guess it's easier to be casual about conditions. For me this season is a once in probably five year opportunity to get to Europe from the other side of the world. I'm probably a bit nuts but I'll be keeping a close eye on the conditions as I get closer to my holiday and if the areas I have chosen don't look good I'm willing to consider losing my money and getting a last minute deal elsewhere. There's just too much invested in my trip to not have back up plans.
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swiftoid wrote:
ski wrote:
It's going to be fine... where would you rather be -- in the mountains with (some) snow, or back home ? Puzzled


I like your attitude Very Happy


I like your altitude snowHead
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Quote:

I'm probably a bit nuts but I'll be keeping a close eye on the conditions as I get closer to my holiday

Not nuts at all - we'll all be doing it. wink HoneyBunny, sorry, I wasn't trying to argue either. If Christmas wasn't a great time to ski I wouldn't have done it all those years - but for someone with one week a year, it's not the best time if snow quantity and quality is a major criterion.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

I'm probably a bit nuts but I'll be keeping a close eye on the conditions as I get closer to my holiday

Not nuts at all - we'll all be doing it. wink HoneyBunny, sorry, I wasn't trying to argue either. If Christmas wasn't a great time to ski I wouldn't have done it all those years - but for someone with one week a year, it's not the best time if snow quantity and quality is a major criterion.


It's my contingency plan to possibly abandon already paid for parts of my trip because of the weather that's a bit crazy. Only for worst case scenario conditions of course.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Long way off , but there may be chinks in the armour .
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Rob Mackley, Ssshh........ wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Rob Mackley wrote:
... chinks in the armour .
Laughing

I'm back on the 20th, so that should trigger an xmas snowmageddon rolling eyes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
At least I know what to ask Santa for this year snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Raven, out of nosiness, where are you currently planning on going and are you on or off piste?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Nose away. I'm off to Meribel, Chamonix and Arabba and the Dolomites for the birthday bash. Mostly on piste but might dabble in some low level off piste stuff depending on how my lessons are going (intermediate skier). This is my first time skiing in Europe so a pretty big deal for me.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Decided not to pop out skiing this weekend to Austria, shame as reports of 20-40cms fresh with 70cms in leeward areas, some string winds too and significant wind slab risk. With more moderate snowfall today, http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage
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Raven, as of right now, I think you'll be fine, certainly on piste (although I am not up to date on what's going on in the Dolomites).
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Yeah, I know with snow making and everything it should be okay. Still, I have horrible visions of me spending thousands of dollars and travelling thousands of kilometres to ski on sad strips of manmade snow on bare mountains Sad .
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Raven, yup. Could happen. Pretty unlikely mind you given you're not travelling for some time. Plenty of other unlikely things for you to worry about as well if you are of a mind to.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
pam w, very true, if I only had one week, I'd probably go for beginning or end of March.

Rob Mackley, DON'T JINX IT!

red 27, I'm back on the 22nd, it's guaranteed to be throwing it down as we leave the resort!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
HoneyBunny, over the years I'm sure I've noticed a propensity for big snow dumps to happen on transfer days, at a statistically significant frequency. wink
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Raven, you need to chill. I would be concerned regarding off piste in january as snowpack needs more snow. And now is the time we want to be seeing the snowpack form. But if you are on piste, you have no worries. There is currently snow down to 1000m . The most important time for snow for you is the last few days before you arrive. And if youre around for a few weeks you'll almost certainly get some spells of sun and ice and others of blizzards and powder.

If your big one week of the year is inside the next 2 weeks I'd be worried but if you are a few weeks off yet its not the time to panic.

This is no less likely to be epic year come january. It only takes 24 hours to dump a metre
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Yeah, I should really concentrate more on the stuff I have control over. Like whether I'll be able to fit into my ski pants and jacket this season Smile
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Quote:

This is no less likely to be epic year come january

Agreed. though the (natural) snow down to 1000m in the northern French Alps at the moment is only a few mms at best, in most places. Look at the pretty picture of Hauteluce (1150m) here http://www.lessaisies.com/webcams-les-saisies.html
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pam w wrote:
snow down to 1000m in the northern French Alps at the moment is only a few mms at best, in most places. Look at the pretty picture of Hauteluce (1150m)


I'd fancy my chances of getting down that on skis. It's a bit like moguls - gotta pick the right line Toofy Grin
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Recent snowfall has certainly kept things looking good in the eastern Alps, here's Schladming.

http://www.planai.at/winter/en/planai_news/Live_Cams.html

Should be plenty of sun in the coming week, which should be pleasant, albeit not snowy. Temperatures rise, but at present not necessarily much above average for too long.

Chamonix



Some signs of a shift coming from mid month.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen, that 0600 run looks FAR more healthy! snowHead snowHead snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just what the dr ordered Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yes - good to see that night time temps will dip below freezing which should allow the blowers to be turned on *phew*
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I wish I understood the wigglies Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Does that blue line on the 23rd mean 20cm of snow?
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Filthyphil30k, No I don't think the number on the RHS correlate to cm depth of snow.

That blue spike would a monster dump, but it's a classic FI teaser at this stage
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red 27, thanks, I realise that it's to far off, but nice to see the possibility.
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Filthyphil30k, My guess is that that spike won't come to anything. The blue line is one of 15 or so runs. 'Normally' to get a good dump you'd want to see more than 50% of the runs spiking at around the same time....... The grey line is the average of all the outputs, so as far as longer term trends go you might be better looking at that line rather than the blue and green.

edit to add:

I think the number up the RHS is precipitation in mm of rain, this could equate to 20cm of snow, but IIRC the 'conversion rate' from precipitation to snow is not a fixed constant, generally though about 1mm=1cm is used. The actual accumulation of snow would be the area under the graph, so if that blue line scenario were to play out it would be a lot more than 20cm.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 8-12-13 12:54; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
rogg, thanks for sensible advice. The grey line sucks, will keep looking at blue!!! Very Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Can we have a sweepstake on when this pesky high pressure is going to let the fronts in Evil or Very Mad

It does seem a stubborn one. IIRC we had a 5 week high in February / March a couple of seasons ago. Not uncommon I know but with the Xmas hoards arriving it would be nice for a top up.


I am taking an uneducated punt on a nice Xmas present for 24th December.

Start crossing fingers and toes wink
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hedley, it'll probably be just in time for January 6th… i.e.. once everyone has gone home after their new year ski trip…
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shoogly, I hope not Evil or Very MadI am out on the 29th.

Every year I try not get drawn in by obsessively watching the various weather models/runs etc prior to my 2 annual trips. I know it won't change anything. Do I need therapy.

I've just read an article about how people are obsessively checking emails etc. maybe this should apply to the to the 00z,06z,12z 18z as well Embarassed
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