 Poster: A snowHead
|
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| Friend of ours and her flat mate have just been confirmed with having cv, not sure how but they have had it confirmed they caught it in morzine, they were there last week before lockdown, lot more about than testing shows obviously |
How long ago were they in Morzine? |
The last week before the shut down |
So that's about three weeks ago? How long has France been on shutdown? Most people seem to show symptoms much quicker than that (I think the WHO says 6 days is average) so knowing for certain that they caught it in Morzine seems a bit of a stretch. |
The current UK guidelines on this are here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
To summarise: if you've been exposed, you're clear after 14 days symptom-free. If you've had symptoms, you're clear 7 days after onset.
To present with symptoms >21 days after exposure seems inconsistent with current guidelines.
I'd be amazed if there was a genetically sequenced "Morzine variant" and that people in the UK were having their viral RNA sequenced to determine the source of infection. We're struggling to do 10,000 PCR tests/day; genetic sequencing is several orders of magnitude harder/slower than PCR.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
| Gerry wrote: |
| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
I went out to start my car this morning so the battery doesn't go flat. The police were issuing a fine to the old lady across the road who walks her dog three times a day.
At the same time the local hoods rode by on their BMXs shouting abuse and they did nothing.
 |
Idiots. They will lose the consent of the public if they carry on like that. |
APRIL FOOL! |
OK, you got me but it's not totally unbelievable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Quote: |
Carers on their low wages in these situations are being genuinely heroic in my view.
|
In my view, too. But in the case of my mother in law's carers they're not badly paid. The woman who organises a small team decides how often they should visit - and organises a rota. She bills me, and I just pay, using my mother in law's account. They make 4, sometimes 5, visits a day, all short, and are paid £15 a visit. Sometimes they do some cleaning too, in which case they charge a separate £15 an hour for that. I don't begrudge them a penny, but I don't think we are exploiting them. They all rely on the income to varying extents - especially the lead person, who has been running a kennels and cattery - bottom fallen out of that business.
They are all in danger of catching the virus from their households and other essential contacts. As I see it, their elderly and housebound charges will only catch it from one of them. TBH, if any of those carers catch it, and given that they won't know for a while, while they are still working, we have to accept that they will probably give it to all the very elderly and frail people they look after. They are a classic "cluster". As are care homes - even more so. Nobody can really be "safeguarded" in that scenario. 
Selfishly, I just hope they keep going - my mother in law lives some way from me, and I can't think how I could set up any alternative. Now I must go and pay the bill for the second half of March - £1300. Fortunately my mother in law has savings - they won't last much longer but, to be honest, I hope she doesn't, either.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| robs1 wrote: |
| Lockdowns wont stop the spread, they slow it down, nothing can or will stop it, until 100% of people have had it and developed immunity which never happens, once 80 to 90 % have had it the spread will slow to such an extent that it ceases to be an issue, until it mutates which lots of viruses do of course our immune system will react quicker next time as it will be similar to the current strain. |
There is no theoretical reason why lockdowns can't stop the spread. Cutting the 'R' number to below 1, which is what the current restrictions are aimed at, should mean that over time the number of new infections reduces. If you reach a point where those who are currently infectious only come into contact with people who have acquired immunity through previous exposure then the virus will die out.
Whether that is a sensible aim, or whether the public will accept current or even tighter lockdowns for a long period, is another debate. To maintain a 'no virus' state would require strict border controls/testing. The government might decide that the better route is to loosen controls slightly after a few months, then reimpose them, and repeat for 2-3 years until either herd immmuity is acquired or widespread vaccination available.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| snowdave wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| Friend of ours and her flat mate have just been confirmed with having cv, not sure how but they have had it confirmed they caught it in morzine, they were there last week before lockdown, lot more about than testing shows obviously |
How long ago were they in Morzine? |
The last week before the shut down |
So that's about three weeks ago? How long has France been on shutdown? Most people seem to show symptoms much quicker than that (I think the WHO says 6 days is average) so knowing for certain that they caught it in Morzine seems a bit of a stretch. |
The current UK guidelines on this are here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
To summarise: if you've been exposed, you're clear after 14 days symptom-free. If you've had symptoms, you're clear 7 days after onset.
To present with symptoms >21 days after exposure seems inconsistent with current guidelines.
I'd be amazed if there was a genetically sequenced "Morzine variant" and that people in the UK were having their viral RNA sequenced to determine the source of infection. We're struggling to do 10,000 PCR tests/day; genetic sequencing is several orders of magnitude harder/slower than PCR. |
She was out there from the 9th to the 16th of March not sure when she was tested but oh saw her fb post last week so it fits perfectly with her holiday.
How they "know" it was morzine I have no idea, maybe from the dates she gave them and other reports, but that is me guessing, all I can report is what I've heard
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| ecureuil wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| Lockdowns wont stop the spread, they slow it down, nothing can or will stop it, until 100% of people have had it and developed immunity which never happens, once 80 to 90 % have had it the spread will slow to such an extent that it ceases to be an issue, until it mutates which lots of viruses do of course our immune system will react quicker next time as it will be similar to the current strain. |
There is no theoretical reason why lockdowns can't stop the spread. Cutting the 'R' number to below 1, which is what the current restrictions are aimed at, should mean that over time the number of new infections reduces. If you reach a point where those who are currently infectious only come into contact with people who have acquired immunity through previous exposure then the virus will die out.
Whether that is a sensible aim, or whether the public will accept current or even tighter lockdowns for a long period, is another debate. To maintain a 'no virus' state would require strict border controls/testing. The government might decide that the better route is to loosen controls slightly after a few months, then reimpose them, and repeat for 2-3 years until either herd immmuity is acquired or widespread vaccination available. |
In theory I might marry some famous actress in the real world it wont happen, there is no way that the country or the world can survive 2 years of the restrictions we have now, it would be nice to think we can remove this virus but it's just not possible, we have to live with it like we do the flu, ie protect the vulnerable . The WHO know this as do all governments, I have not seen one report about removing it rather it's about defeating it . Apart from smallpox I dont know of any virus that has been removed from humans, we have been trying for decades with flu and cold, it's scary for people but it is the reality
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ecureuil wrote: |
Whether that is a sensible aim, or whether the public will accept current or even tighter lockdowns for a long period, is another debate. To maintain a 'no virus' state would require strict border controls/testing. The government might decide that the better route is to loosen controls slightly after a few months, then reimpose them, and repeat for 2-3 years until either herd immmuity is acquired or widespread vaccination available. |
My own personal opinion is that the government will start to loosen the restrictions bit by bit over the coming weeks and months, with a view to getting back to total normality in 6mths. I just don't think the economy will survive being in total lockdown for more than, say, 6 weeks to 2mths. Large gatherings may be banned for longer, and the vunerable and elderly may be on lockdown for longer.
With the exception of the likes of food retailers, a huge amount of businesses (including some massive employers) are weeks away from going bust (as cashflow is now zero, and cash is king) - they'll need propping up from the government, and the government can only afford to do that for so long.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
it's scary for people but it is the reality
|
That sounds right to me. Covid-19 will remain a very nasty thing for some of us to catch, it's just better if we don't all catch it at once now. The development of an effective vaccine will, in the end, probably be a more important determinant of what happens than the length of this - or subsequent - lockdowns.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Agreed, they need to plan to loosen restrictions. In fact I hope there is an exit-strategy group somewhere in Whitehall.
The hope is that there are people out there working out which restrictions are most effective and which could be relaxed without massively changing infection rates. And medically, the best ways of treating the severe cases so that the vast majority recover. Then if total lockdown for several weeks has reversed the pandemic to a level that can be managed medically, resumption of elements of the economy should be possible as long as the infection rate R stays around 1.
Not sure what that would be. Food shops now seem to be quite good at managing numbers, one question is whether other shops could re-open without greatly increasing infection events on the streets.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| robs1 wrote: |
In theory I might marry some famous actress in the real world it wont happen, there is no way that the country or the world can survive 2 years of the restrictions we have now, it would be nice to think we can remove this virus but it's just not possible, we have to live with it like we do the flu, ie protect the vulnerable . The WHO know this as do all governments, I have not seen one report about removing it rather it's about defeating it . Apart from smallpox I dont know of any virus that has been removed from humans, we have been trying for decades with flu and cold, it's scary for people but it is the reality |
I guess it depends on quite how effective the vaccines are. Polio was almost eliminated until the resistance against vaccination became strong , same with measles I believe.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| Quote: |
I guess it depends on quite how effective the vaccines are. Polio was almost eliminated until the resistance against vaccination became strong , same with measles I believe
|
Any evidence that polio became resistant to the vaccine? Quite a bold claim. I think you will find the vaccine still works just fine. There is a risk of vaccine-derived polio, but very different thing to what you are saying.
Measles increase can be explained by the decrease in vaccination numbers, rather than a change in effectiveness of the vaccine.
Put the tin foil hat down and off the anti-vax propaganda.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
@boarder2020, there are vaccine resistant strains of polio (who knew?) https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141104111408.htm
Measles resurgence is just down to human stupidity. 
Pubs? Please?
Seriously though, mass gatherings (churches, rock concerts, karaoke bars) are probably riskier than pubs, especially with a little bit of social distancing.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The vaccine is still effective in 70-85% of the time against that strain. Of those that do get polio 90-99% are asymptomatic. So odds with the vaccine are pretty good. Certainly more vaccination is the solution to eliminate polio.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| Quote: |
Measles resurgence is just down to human stupidity
|
Maybe, once there is a coronavirus vaccine, it will become compulsory. And with it, perhaps, an "opt out" (rather than an opt in) for organ donation. And a sensible law on assisted death.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
@pam w, organ donation is opt out now....isn't it?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
I suspect the 1st version of the vaccine maybe for opt-in.
The current flu vaccine is opt-in. “Strongly recommended” for people above certain age. But all we have to do is not make the appointment.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
@ecureuil, It is a new virus. We have no immunity so without a vaccine, we will all get it. What governments underestimated (or the Chinese kept to themselves) is just how quickly it spreads (the famous RO value) and so they are trying to ensure we don't all get it at the same time, or least ensure the most vulnerable don't. As a teacher, turning schools on and off at short notice depending on infection levels would be worse than keeping them continuously closed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
Measles resurgence is just down to human stupidity
|
Maybe, once there is a coronavirus vaccine, it will become compulsory. And with it, perhaps, an "opt out" (rather than an opt in) for organ donation. And a sensible law on assisted death. |
Whilst I agree with all this, the problem is we all have a couple of things we'd like on that list, and pretty rapidly we're giving away our liberties and the old lady across the street is being fined for walking her dog whilst BMX-riding yoofs run amok. At least I think that's what happens 
No vaccine? Back of the queue for healthcare. Skier? voluntary risk taking adrenaline junky, no orthopaedic services for you. Like a glass of wine? that's an immunosuppresant, no treatment at all for you
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@Handy Turnip, +1. Spot on.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
@pam w, I don't think that's a real world scenario
@boarder2020, wasn't suggesting otherwise, just that a vaccine resistant strain exists.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
@under a new name, I didn't intend pubs in the category "other shops".
Logically, and I think with some evidence from what happens with flu, it isn't just how close you are to someone infected but also for how long. So being within 2 m for a couple of seconds in a shop isn't nearly as risky as sitting across the table in a pub chatting for an hour.
But if they were to allow more shops to open there is the issue of risk to till staff in the shops from multiple interactions - though there might be ways of minimising that, I had to go to the bank yesterday and they managed things extremely well. And the more shops there are open the more people there are passing each other on the street outside. But also more people gainfully employed in making and delivering whatever those shops sell, provided those jobs can be done with safe arrangements. It depends on someone being able to assess all the risks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
I guess it depends on quite how effective the vaccines are. Polio was almost eliminated until the resistance against vaccination became strong , same with measles I believe
|
Any evidence that polio became resistant to the vaccine? Quite a bold claim. I think you will find the vaccine still works just fine. There is a risk of vaccine-derived polio, but very different thing to what you are saying.
Measles increase can be explained by the decrease in vaccination numbers, rather than a change in effectiveness of the vaccine.
Put the tin foil hat down and off the anti-vax propaganda. |
You misunderstood what I was saying, it was people's resistance to being vaccinated that stopped the elimination of polio, not the resistance of polio to a vaccine.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| snowhound wrote: |
| @ecureuil, It is a new virus. We have no immunity so without a vaccine, we will all get it. What governments underestimated (or the Chinese kept to themselves) is just how quickly it spreads (the famous RO value) and so they are trying to ensure we don't all get it at the same time, or least ensure the most vulnerable don't. As a teacher, turning schools on and off at short notice depending on infection levels would be worse than keeping them continuously closed. |
No, anyone who has had the virus, and has recovered, has a degree of immunity. Until widespread testing is available for the "healthy" population we don't know how many are in this category. So until a vaccine is widely available (probably12-24 months away), there are really only two choices. Mainly a tight lockdown. Or release it slightly, see if the virus takes off again, and if it does then tighten it again, and so on. With every release more people will get a mild form and recover, so gradually increasing the proportion with immunity. Then the following slight release can probably last for a bit longer, etc.
That wouldn't necessarily mean that schools will be repeatedly opened & closed - it will depend on what measures are thought to be effective. They could stay closed for a year, while other businesses reopen, if schools are thought to be a widespread transmission vector.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
or, once the initial spike which results from so many people being exposed to a new vector, with no immunity, is past, we just learn to live with the fact that this is a new, significant, thing for people to die from, despite the availability (unlike now) of adequate acute care for those who can benefit from it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@j b, darn.
| Quote: |
It depends on someone being able to assess all the risks.
|
And therein lies the rub.
Supermarkets round here now have acrylic panels in front of the checkout person, and everyone is being suitably distant.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
@ecureuil, sorry, yes natural immunity is what I meant. I seriously can’t see schools being closed beyond September-the social,educational and economic impact would be immense. Children are vectors, not least because the vast majority are asymptomatic so they spread it without showing symptoms and therefore being put in isolation. But if vulnerable people are isolated effectively then schools should be able to open.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
@pam w,
Agreed, there are lots of things people die of every day. On average about 1500.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@ecureuil, How could kids do their GCSEs and A levels if the schools were closed for a year. It is bad enough that the A levels and GCSEs are not being taken this year but at least the students have pretty much completed the course.
How would private schools remain in business?
Schools need to go back by May half term in my opinion...possibly not all year groups at once.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
@snowymum, summer term half term would be my bet as well. If there is a peak sooner rather than later as now expected, the Govt will be looking to exit the full shut down as soon as politically possible. Today’s economic news (universal credit numbers were truely dire) showed the damage this is causing. It was predictable but the Govt panicked two weeks ago when it realised it has originally followed the wrong path. Gradual release with elderly and vulnerable kept at home...?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
Absolutely no chance of releasing people again until late summer if South Korea is anything to go by. They've been the most successful country in the world at locking this down bit still having 100 odd cases a day.
Until we get across the board testing available, it will be impossible to open again without risking us going back to square one.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
| Until we get across the board testing available, it will be impossible to open again without risking us going back to square one. |
It won't be exactly back to square one because a very large number of people will already have developed some immunity through infection and recovery.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| rob@rar wrote: |
| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
| Until we get across the board testing available, it will be impossible to open again without risking us going back to square one. |
It won't be exactly back to square one because a very large number of people will already have developed some immunity through infection and recovery. |
I'm not so sure about that.
Looking at the positive/total test ratio, even those WITH symptoms, only about 10-20% are positive. Meaning there's 80-90% of the population still uninfected. We don't have the number of the negative ratio for those WITHOUT symptoms. The latter will be very telling.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
exactly. Hers immunity won't work. So the only way will be complete testing and isolation of those positive.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| snowdave wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| rob@rar wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| Friend of ours and her flat mate have just been confirmed with having cv, not sure how but they have had it confirmed they caught it in morzine, they were there last week before lockdown, lot more about than testing shows obviously |
How long ago were they in Morzine? |
The last week before the shut down |
So that's about three weeks ago? How long has France been on shutdown? Most people seem to show symptoms much quicker than that (I think the WHO says 6 days is average) so knowing for certain that they caught it in Morzine seems a bit of a stretch. |
The current UK guidelines on this are here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
To summarise: if you've been exposed, you're clear after 14 days symptom-free. If you've had symptoms, you're clear 7 days after onset.
To present with symptoms >21 days after exposure seems inconsistent with current guidelines.
I'd be amazed if there was a genetically sequenced "Morzine variant" and that people in the UK were having their viral RNA sequenced to determine the source of infection. We're struggling to do 10,000 PCR tests/day; genetic sequencing is several orders of magnitude harder/slower than PCR. |
The virus is mutating.
One strain now lasts up to ~7 weeks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Quote: |
Looking at the positive/total test ratio, even those WITH symptoms, only about 10-20% are positive. Meaning there's 80-90% of the population still uninfected. We don't have the number of the negative ratio for those WITHOUT symptoms. The latter will be very telling.
|
The test just indicates if you have coronavirus right now, so those testing negative may have already had it. Plus, as you say, there are the asymptotic and mild symptom people that will not have been tested, which could be significant. Perhaps the Oxford model prediction that 50% of people in UK have had the virus is not so farfetched. The key is the antibody test which will tell us.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
Plus, as you say, there are the asymptotic and mild symptom people that will not have been tested,
|
You missed the point again.
Those people are being “sampled”. Some are people who stay in hospital for other illnesses. Some are medical professionals.
Those numbers were not available to the public. But if the “random sampling” shows we’re approaching herd immunity, we would have heard about it by now!
Wake up from your fantasy. Stop grasping for straws. We’re in poo-poo shape. Denying it doesn’t make it go away. Facing the problem and take the right action is the only way put of it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Between 1% and 20% of the total population in rich countries now have C19 (Apr 2nd, 2020).
Spain and Italy are an absolute disaster.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Interesting graphs - especially the left hand one. It does suggest that (if true) we have a long, long way to go before we reach anything like herd immunity. I think multiple (less stringent) periods of lockdown or restrictions are likely over the coming months / even into 2021, regardless of when the current one ends.
I'm not sure how useful the right hand graph is. Isn't it just an illustration of how long it has been since each country introduced social distancing measures? And the margin of error bars are massive.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@abc, problem being that it's not "statistical" sampling. Italy are now only testing those who die (iirc) and are classing any deaths with C-19 as being a death of C-19 ...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
