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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
+1

Whitegold, you are Michael Fish and I claim my £5
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Yes, more "probablys" and "shoulds" are in order... wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This should give some idea of where snowfall is likely next weekend. It looks like being focused both to the west and the south of the Alps. 30-40cms possible with a snow line of 2000m+, heavy rain lower down.



Beyond that it does look like high pressure could build to the east by mid month. ECM has this slightly to the south http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7711/ECM1-216_whz8.GIF pulling up much warmer air, GFS has further to the north http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7881/gfs-0-216_wxw8.png and keeping it closer to seasonal average or just above. Either way some milder weather than of late looks on the cards at least for a while.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Wed 7-11-12 19:55; edited 2 times in total
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Pedantica wrote:
Whitegold, bog off


This...... Laughing
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clarky999, you were asking about snow density. Here's a good chart from MetEd.



You can see how density decreases with cold before increasing again.
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my usual morning scout around the cams suggests a nice thick layer of fresh in the Beaufortain snowHead do i really have to wait til March
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A switch to a more easterly track for next weekend's weather (I've updated the chart above to show this). Which would mean more snow for the Vorarlberg and Tirol and a higher freezing level (and rain) for the western Alps. But as ever the exact track is hard to identify at this range and is likely to shift back and forth still.

Shorter term some very cold weather over the next couple of days (lovely if you can get some altitude to enjoy some of the recent snow). However, a warm up us likely first as we approach the weekend, then a cool down on the other side of the storm before what looks like a more sustained milder period around the middle of the month.
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nozawaonsen, thanks.
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Tignes webcams snowHead snowHead snowHead
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Quote:

a more sustained milder period around the middle of the month

Evil or Very Mad
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Pedantica, better than a v cold non-snowy period.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
clarky999, oh, OK
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Pedantica wrote:
Quote:

a more sustained milder period around the middle of the month

Evil or Very Mad


May not last that long, four or five days if 06z is right. Too far out to get a real sense at this stage.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
i assume by milder, any snow lying much above 2300 will still be above the snow line??
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
emwmarine, tricky at present it looks like at least a few days mid month where freezing level could be around 2700m+ at times. Good news is I'd be hard pushed to say I was certain. Bad news is it certainly looks possible. Looking at the ensembles you can still see quite a spread from 11 November. So options exist.
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This afternoon's update from SLF.

Wintery conditions above 2500 m, caution urged towards snowdrift

Extracts.

"At 2500 m the snow cover is 30 to 50 cm deep widespread, in the inneralpine regions of the Valais and Grisons there is 20 to 30 cm of snow."

"On Saturday, 10 November, it will be intermittently sunny in northern regions, accompanied by foehn winds. In southern regions it will be heavily overcast and snowfall is expected above approximately 2000 m. On Sunday, 11 November, skies will be heavily overcast on both sides of the Alps and snowfall is anticipated. It will turn significantly colder."
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Once upon a time in the US there was a simpler way to resolve political differences...


http://youtube.com/v/F2GIirKPy6g

In the meantime the pub run has served up an antidote to the milder runs of earlier today. Yes it goes mild, but you don't have to wait too long (three or four days) before this turns up with a snowy counterpunch...



To be honest I would wait to see how it looks tomorrow. A warm up looks likely, but how long it lasts is very much up for grabs...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well there will be snow in places this weekend above 2000m, where continues to shift about. After that it does look like some average to above average weather (especially in the eastern Alps) for a while this morning's GFS stretches it out for a week. The southern Alps could see quite a stormy incursion around 16 November and it's possible this could also see a shift towards cooler temperatures, but far from being a certainty.
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Obama could win the election.

But Romney could win.

It is a bit too early to tell wink
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Whitegold wrote:
Obama could win the election.

But Romney could win.

It is a bit too early to tell wink


Whitegold, the only 'too late' is for you unfortunately - when God was giving away brains, you were too late Wink


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 7-11-12 23:35; edited 1 time in total
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Whitegold, it's very simple really. If you don't want to read the thread please don't.
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Well it's currently snowing here in Shelton, CT Smile

good job I'm flying back tomorrow night as it's due to warm up and turn to rain by then (I hope!!)
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From tomorrow it currently looks like a milder than average spell will dominate for at least a week possibly more.

In amongst that there will be some heavy rain and snow on Sunday actoss the central Alps, even down to low levels on Monday, but temperatures will then rise again.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
From tomorrow it currently looks like a milder than average spell will dominate for at least a week possibly more.

In amongst that there will be some heavy rain and snow on Sunday actoss the central Alps, even down to low levels on Monday, but temperatures will then rise again.


Coldest morning for ages here today though. Thick ice on the cars etc.
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Mr Piehole, should be milder through the day though (compared to average for early November). The Chamonix ensembles below show this morning just below the 30 year mean (the red line) before spending most of the rest of the run above it.

Overnight Monday looks a bit chilly and there looks like there will be snow, but the majority of the rain looks like arriving over the weekend with warmer air. More rain/snow looks likely on this run for around 17 November, again it doesn't look especially cool, although you can also see that's the point the spread starts to creep in.

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how might a ten year mean compare to the 30 year mean?
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Quote:



how might a ten year mean compare to the 30 year mean?


not quite so tight.
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The pattern looks similar this evening.

Stormy with 20-30cm of snow above 2000m in the western and central Alps on Saturday, up to 20cm I the eastern Alps on Sunday down to 1600m.

Sunday night and Monday morning could be quite cool before temperatures and pressure rises through next week. It should be quite pleasant and sunny, but the warmth will hit the snowpack that had been building recently. At present the best chance for coolers or at least more seasonal temperatures looks like being beyond 17 November.

This shows how strong the Foehn wind will be on Saturday.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Interesting BBC look ahead.

Cold weather on the way?

The most recent update of the ECM 32 day model apparently also showed a possible easterly influence at the start of the December (I say also, but it could well be that the BBC is working from the same data, indeed I think it is likely they are).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
The pattern looks similar this evening.

Stormy with 20-30cm of snow above 2000m in the western and central Alps on Saturday, up to 20cm I the eastern Alps on Sunday down to 1600m.

Sunday night and Monday morning could be quite cool before temperatures and pressure rises through next week. It should be quite pleasant and sunny, but the warmth will hit the snowpack that had been building recently. At present the best chance for coolers or at least more seasonal temperatures looks like being beyond 17 November.

This shows how strong the Foehn wind will be on Saturday.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html


Oof! That's one strong foehn. Bummer. Mother Nature teases us so early in the season. A wee bit of the cold white stuff, and then she goes, and pulls the blanket of snow off the mtns!
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Yes a pity but I doubt it will take it all. Lets hope not
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Mark1863, no the Foehn on Saturday won't itself remove all the snow and indeed there will be quite a bit of snow over the weekend at altitude.

However, temperatures warm up quite a bit next week and by the middle of the week freezing levels are pushed up to above 3000m. Although temperatures do start to fall it currently looks warmer than you would expect in November through to next weekend at least. Obviously that means nothing at all for how things might look later in the season, but it will give the current snow quite a beating.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
WRF on this weekend's snow.

Early Saturday in the south and west.

0600 Saturday http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=48#model

Saturday evening pushing slowly east.

2100 Saturday http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=63#model

Sunday evening further east before starting to fade out.

1800 Sunday http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=84#model
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Whatever it does, it's still looking better than this time last year so far! At least we have some snow to look at Little Angel
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Chamonix Meteo have jollied up their forecast somewhat - perhaps about a foot snow down to 2000m during Saturday night

one hesitates to utter the sacred word 'base' - but maybe... just maybe... Question
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Here's an update from SLF

Marked increase in avalanche danger, particularly in southern regions

Current conditions

"At 2500m in northern regions there is 20 to 40 cm of snow on the ground widespread; in southern regions there is 30 to 60 cm. The snow is generally loosely packed, particularly on north facing slopes."

Development

"On Saturday, 10 November, skies in eastern regions will be partly sunny, accompanied by foehn winds. In the remaining regions, precipitation will set in as early as Friday night. At high altitudes, a strong to stormy southwesterly wind will be blowing. On Sunday, 11 November, precipitation is anticipated far and wide..."

"In northern regions the snowfall level on Saturday will be at 2000 m, then drop down to about 1600 m by Sunday evening. In southern regions, the snowfall level on Saturday will be at 1600 m and ascend to 2000 m on Sunday. All in all, by the time the precipitation comes to an end on Sunday evening, 40 to 80 cm of new fallen snow is expected on the Main Alpine Ridge from Zermatt into the Lower Engadine and southwards thereof. In the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps, as well as in northern and central Grisons, 20 to 40 cm of fresh fallen snow is expected, in the remaining regions maximum 20 cm. In northern regions, the indicated amounts of snowfall will be reached above 2500 m, in southern regions above 2000 m..."

"Outlook

On Tuesday, 13 November, and Wednesday, 14 November, it is expected to be predominantly sunny. Temperatures will become noticeably warmer. The avalanche danger will gradually subside."
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Nice little video from Joel Gratz.

How does snowmaking work?
http://opensnow.com/news/post/how-does-snowmaking-work-video
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Looking a bit farther forward...

The middle of the month looks pretty mild for the time of year. High pressure is sat over Eastern and central Europe. Here it is on ECM from the Meteociel site.



So whatever snow we have now or by Tuesday next week is going to come under a lot of pressure over the next week or so.

At present the best chance of a change comes towards the last week of November. Here it is on GFS this evening again from Meteociel. High pressure now sitting in the Atlantic, the jet pouring cold air and snow over the top into the Alps.



Well it's far too far off to have confidence at this stage, but the last week of the month currently looks the best route out.
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The Föhn storm has well and truly set in here.

I set off home at 23.30 from just north of Chiemsee with a frost warning showing on my car at 4.0°C. By the time I parked here at home (20kms to the south) at 800m it was 8.5°C and rising. The wind is getting stronger all the time as well, there is a fair old racket outside to be honest. Temperatures due to be slightly above normal for this time of year during the day but around normal at night for the next week or so. Sad Only used my frost protection on the windscreen twice so far, but that is better than this time last year I think.
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Good news- heavy snow in places at altitude this weekend.
Bad news - mild weather for much of next week.
Good news - ECM and GFS (in different ways) suggest colder than average weather in 10 days time.

So. Putting this into a complex formula and using one bad news to cancel out one good news leaves us on Saturday morning with only good news! Seems alright. Plus the Autumn Internationals.
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